That's a bold statement that a constant parade of flops is not sustainable. Sharp business acumen right there I told the Duchess of Havingsham at tea time today.
Anyhoo, Pixar survived Cars 2 which not only lost money but got really bad reviews.
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'Lightyear' Coming Summer 2022
- Thread starter NateD1226
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Anyhoo, Pixar survived Cars 2 which not only lost money but got really bad reviews.
MarvelCharacterNerd
Well-Known Member
I can't believe that didn't actually occur to me previously. Probably because the cultures were so different and Pixar had so much more cache over Disney Feature Animation for so much of the time they both created simultaneously. Also early on it was Pixar/CG and Disney/hand-drawn, so audiences always knew the difference between the brands.
With no distinction now in the production as both are CG, and given the failure of Lightyear and the likely similar outcome of forthcoming projects like Strange World (another sci-fi genre film with political controversy already under discussion from previews), this is absolutely something I could see Chapek looking at. Sell the Pixar location, move the talent down to Burbank. Cut the development and production staffs making "the same thing" (aka animated films). Just hope to keep a few headliners from both teams (while halving the budget overall) and stop making so many animated films that won't succeed in the theatrical space, while still keeping the production line open for new Disney+ content as the "best of both brands".
It would be a bloodbath and huge creative talent would be lost. But it would save a lot of money. Hmm, why does that sound familiar?
Note: I don't wish for this but it would make a lot of sense in the consolidation/money-saving current company atmosphere. For non-creative execs looking just at the money... "why do we have two segments making animation? Just call it a Disney/Pixar production and be done with it. What's the difference between Encanto and Turning Red anyway that we are paying overhead for two teams and locations? We're all 'One Disney', right?"
I hope it doesn't happen, but it makes a terrible $en$e based on the recent reorgs.
TwilightZone
Well-Known Member
Onward needed a much better marketing campaign. The commercials made it seem like an interesting idea but executed very, well uh, boringly for a lack of a better word. Plus the whole "Disney's first gay character" thing making people's eyes roll after 4 or so other attempts beforehand of "Disney's first gay character" before Onward (all of which had like 5 seconds of screentime at most). I will give lightyear this, at least it's gay character is a main character, that is commendable.
Poor marketing is RIPE with modern Pixar sadly, especially with original, non-sequel IPs. Only exceptions I can think of being maybe turning red, soul and luca. Most modern Pixar commercials make all their movies look boring compared to magical and fun.
Let's compare UP's commercial
to Lightyear's
and Onward's
Which one looks more enjoyable from commercial alone?
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Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I meant non musicals stories, Disney excels with musicals, Pixar should leave that to them and stick to non musicals because that’s what they’re best at.
One of my all time Pixar favorites also, I think it‘s more emotional for guys though because the end chokes me up every time and my gf doesn’t get any emotions over it.
Sharon&Susan
Well-Known Member
After Minion's success, it's been proven that an animated family movie can be a big success in a post-COVID world.
Now the question is can a Disney Animation or Pixar movie make money theatrically in a post-Disney+ world?
Now the question is can a Disney Animation or Pixar movie make money theatrically in a post-Disney+ world?
WondersOfLife
Blink, blink. Breathe, breathe. Day in, day out.
That is the same for my wife. Father figure movies for boys like Onward and A Goofy Movie hit hard! lol
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
I think if Encanto had a full theatrical window and was allowed to play in theaters through the Christmas holiday, it would have definitely made more money. As is, it did fairly well even though Disney advertised that it would be on Disney Plus less than a month after it's release. I also think Raya would have done well in theaters had it come out this year instead of last March with the simultaneous theatrical/Disney Plus release date.
I think Strange World, while it looks interesting, will flop as it will be sandwiched in between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water — two other Disney-owned properties likely to make way more money (Black Panther could make a billion, even without Chadwick Boseman, and Avatar 2 could make $2 billion). Strange World gives me Atlantis/Treasure Planet vibes and while I liked both of those movies, they were flops in their day. It will also have a gay romance. While I, as a gay man, love that as an artistic choice and a step forward in inclusion, I also think that in wake of Disney's conflict with DeSantis and right-wing media's fearmongering about LGBT people, it may hurt the film financially. Still hope they don't edit the romance out though, as I think history will be kind to it.
But I think the next Disney animated musical will be a hit.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
They absolutely can but if the window of theater exclusivity grows smaller (or stays the same) before the movies hit D+ then you can tell that Disney is not worried as much about box office revenue as they are with getting D+ subscribers.
WondersOfLife
Blink, blink. Breathe, breathe. Day in, day out.
Minions has a much larger marketing campaign, and it was lucky enough to become part of a huge trend on tiktok where teenagers and young adults shows up in giant groups dressed in suit and tie as a joke.
They definitely lucked out on minions. I’m sure it’s also a good film.
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
Never doubt the power of the meme. Every kid wants to be part of the latest social media trend.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Disney is a massive company with several flagship divisions. Animation is one of those divisions, and it sucks up huge amounts of capital to keep it running. A company needs to "fire on all cylinders" to stay healthy, especially when the cylinders require massive amounts of money to keep running.
My God, Pixar and Disney Animation are both spending between $150 Million to $200 Million per animated picture now! Where does all that money go, and how lavish are the catered lunches???
Minions Rise of Gru had a production budget of $80 Million, or roughly 40% of the budget for Lightyear. (I hate math, so correct me if I'm wrong on 40%). Using @MisterPenguin 's helpful analysis that a modern movie requires triple the production budget in box office to break even, Minions is going to make hundreds of millions of dollars for Universal. While Lightyear is going to cost Disney hundreds of millions of dollars.
Disney's fancy, flagship divisions need to be firing on all cylinders, especially as the new recession bites hard on American's budgets this summer and fall. Currently, Pixar and WDAS are sputtering and wasting huge amounts of money.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I too remember when a Pixar movie was noticeably and inherently different than a "Disney" animated movie. In the 2000's, Pixar movies still had that "computer generated" look about them. But as technology changed, even the aesthetics have blurred, much less the subject material.
To my casual and untrained eye, Pixar movies now look more Disney-ish, and Disney movies now look more Pixar-ish.
Honestly, if you put up the movie posters side-by-side for Encanto, Luca, Soul, Turning Red and Lightyear, I would only be able to guess that Lightyear was the Pixar movie based solely on its Toy Story character. The other movies? I honestly can't tell you without going to Google which movie came from which studio.
So why does Disney have two separate and lavishly funded animated movie divisions? One is in Burbank, and the other is 350 miles north in Emeryville. That made sense just 15 years ago, but now? I will not be at all surprised if by 2025 the Emeryville campus gets consolidated into the Burbank campus, and the Emeryville property gets sold off to condo developers.
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
True. But to be fair, the marketplace of free consumers made that known quite loudly last Christmas when Spiderman became a huge box office hit in theaters. Families and young people have been rushing back to theaters for some time now, but only if it's a movie they want to see or take the kids to.
From the Variety article quoting an industry analyst this morning that I link below, this quote sums it all up...
“The industry is breathing a huge sigh of relief (over Minions),” Bock says. “The upside: audiences are officially back in full. The downside: no more blaming pandemic woes for underperforming titles at the box office.”
Exactly. What's also a big question is why Disney Animation or Pixar is spending so much money on each of their films that then go on to be modest sellers at best, or big dissapointments at worst. How does Disney/Pixar waste that much money on their films???
Lightyear Production Budget = $200 Million
Lightyear Breakeven Point is $600 Million, 18 Days of Current Global Box Office $191 Million
Minions Rise of Gru Production Budget = $80 Million
Minions Breakeven Point is $240 Million, 4 Days of Current Global Box Office $217 Million
So, using the "triple the production budget" formula to get to breakeven, Minions Rise of Gru should crest $240 Million sometime today in it's 5th day in global theaters. That means every ticket sold beyond Wednesday is adding profit for Universal.
Lightyear's box office sales have stalled entirely and it's faded from minds. It only averaged $311 per theater over this holiday weekend. Industry analysts are now guesstimating Lightyear will end up a month from now with a total of $250 Million in global box office sales. That means Walt Disney Animation will have lost approximately $350 Million on Lightyear.
United States Domestic Box Office thru July 4th, 2022:
Why ‘Minions: The Rise of Gru’ Thrived at the Box Office While ‘Lightyear’ Flailed
Box office watchers were worried that family audiences had forgotten about movie theaters... until "Minions: The Rise of Gru" came along.
variety.com
Minions movie sees smash success in theaters driven by TikTokers dressing up in suits
If you spot crowds of teens going to see "The Rise of Gru" in suits, here's why.
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In millions...
If LY's world is $250, Disney gets half of that: $125.
$200 Budget + $100 Marketing/Admin = Total Cost of $300.
$300 spent - $125 cut of the B.O. = $175 loss.
The reason why $600 is the break even is because Disney only gets half of the B.O. Disney would have needed another $350 at the B.O. which would have been an extra $175 income, which would then be a wash.
A good chunk of that loss will be made up in the post-theatrical markets. And Socks merch.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Well, what's a hundred million dollars or two between friends?
Is Sox merch really going to be a thing? For a movie that didn't do well?
When I go search Target right now, they have 45 pieces of Lightyear's Sox merchandise for sale. And all of it is deeply discounted already. If it's a hot new thing, a store doesn't put it on half off only 3 weeks after the movie opened.
When does the Sox craze start? And who is going to buy it?
Sox Lightyear : Target
Shop Target for sox lightyear you will love at great low prices. Choose from Same Day Delivery, Drive Up or Order Pickup plus free shipping on orders $35+.
www.target.com
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
A search just now on Disney's own merchandise website found eight (8) pieces of merchandise with Sox for sale. But only one of them is solely of Sox, the other seven items are Buzz Lightyear with Sox somewhere on the shirt or toy.
I'm not sensing that Sox is a big driver of merchandise sales this summer with the movie less than three weeks old. But maybe this Christmas there will be a big Sox push for some unknown group of consumers?...
"Buy the sidekick character from that movie you didn't see last summer!"
I'm not sensing that Sox is a big driver of merchandise sales this summer with the movie less than three weeks old. But maybe this Christmas there will be a big Sox push for some unknown group of consumers?...
"Buy the sidekick character from that movie you didn't see last summer!"
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
A week or two after it hits Disney+, just like the Encanto craze.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
So how does this work... does the $100-200M budget include the salary for the Pixar employees? The rental of the studio space etc.... or is the $100-200M in addition to the normal operating costs of the studio?