Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

flynnibus

Premium Member
With FP+, people who checked in before you and had longer stays had access to any given date before you did. An attraction with the popularity of Rise would have "sold out" BEFORE 60 days.

You miss the point - a person trying to book FP+ for a popular attraction had multiple days to pick from if they were length of stay. So they had more opportunities in front of them when they booked. Now they have one opportunity, lined up exactly against everyone chasing the same day.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
You miss the point - a person trying to book FP+ for a popular attraction had multiple days to pick from if they were length of stay. So they had more opportunities in front of them when they booked. Now they have one opportunity, lined up exactly against everyone chasing the same day.
The math works out identically. You have more opportunities under FP+, but you're competing against a proportionally higher number of guests.

Current: Competing for 10 cookies among 20 people.

FP+: Competing for 50 cookies among 100 people.
 

drizgirl

Well-Known Member
Not true. As of March, 2020, the DHS Tiers were:

Tier 1:
MFSR
MMRR
SDD

Tier 2:
AS2
BatB
Disney Junior Dance Party
Fantasmic
Frozen Sing-along
Indy
Muppets
RnRC
Star Tours
TSM
ToT
Mermaid

There was a period where almost everything was Tier 1 but they changed that as the new attractions started opening...
That setup existed for less than 2 weeks.
 

sedati

Well-Known Member
Perhaps they were, but the problem is that people (myself included) don't want to wait in long queues.
Queues are like taxes in a theme park. Nobody likes them, but everyone should be paying their fare share. Making people think otherwise was the mistake. If LL needs to exist, I'd prefer it be seen as a somewhat less expensive and less exclusive VIP tour than a somewhat more expensive park admission. And going one step further, require a hotel stay or dining package. This is one program I have no problem with Disney being greedy with. Cap the numbers low enough so that standby is not overtly affected and see just how much people will pay.
 

Patcheslee

Well-Known Member
You miss the point - a person trying to book FP+ for a popular attraction had multiple days to pick from if they were length of stay. So they had more opportunities in front of them when they booked. Now they have one opportunity, lined up exactly against everyone chasing the same day.
Not to mention being locked into a park due to reservations limits which ones people can attempt to obtain. Before it was more flexible in which park you wanted to go to. So if I see my #1 attraction want is sold unavailable, I'm stuck with still going to that park.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
The math works out identically. You have more opportunities under FP+, but you're competing against a proportionally higher number of guests.

No it doesn't work identically - because not everyone's dates are aligned. Consider two people who will be in the park on the same day. The person who has a 10 day stay and is booking day 7 will be able to book the target day while the other person who is only on a 5 day stay will not have the option to book that day yet because they have a later arrival date.

The person booking with the longer stay has more opportunities to pick from and each day can be booking against less people if their stay is longer than the other person.

In genie, all available bookers start at the same time and only have one day to pick from.

It's not 'identical' in any way or function.

Under FP+ for any given day less people could be booking vs Genie because not everyone's eligibility for booking time is not the same even though they are in the park on the same day.

Under FP+ you have the option to pick not just from one day, but all of your days. Thus you have more opportunity when given the choice... thus people may pick a different day to get the time they want.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Genie booking compresses the booking window while simultaneously limiting your available options. This is a formula for 'rush on the availability' and quick sell outs.

This is why I said before Disney really had to rely on rolling availability if they wanted to keep the potential of selling FP attractive to people. If everything sells out at zero hour... you have both people who missed out mad, and no ability to sell more entitlements later.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
No it doesn't work identically - because not everyone's dates are aligned. Consider two people who will be in the park on the same day. The person who has a 10 day stay and is booking day 7 will be able to book the target day while the other person who is only on a 5 day stay will not have the option to book that day yet because they have a later arrival date.

The person booking with the longer stay has more opportunities to pick from and each day can be booking against less people if their stay is longer than the other person.

In genie, all available bookers start at the same time and only have one day to pick from.

It's not 'identical' in any way or function.

Under FP+ for any given day less people could be booking vs Genie because not everyone's eligibility for booking time is not the same even though they are in the park on the same day.

Under FP+ you have the option to pick not just from one day, but all of your days. Thus you have more opportunity when given the choice... thus people may pick a different day to get the time they want.
Yes, if a guest booked a longer-than-average stay, they would have an advantage for the days at the outer edge of their 60+LOS. Pretending that the average length of stay is 4.5 days, a guest with a 7 night stay would have an advantage over the current system for days 60+5, 60+6 60+7, and 60+8. They would have no advantage for days 60, 60+1, 60+2, 60+3, and 60+4.

Importantly, a guest with a LOS *shorter* than the median is at a disadvantage under FP+ than under the current system.

"Identical" was a poor choice of words. It's break-even in aggregate. Better for some. Worse for others. Net neutral.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
Genie booking compresses the booking window while simultaneously limiting your available options. This is a formula for 'rush on the availability' and quick sell outs.

This is why I said before Disney really had to rely on rolling availability if they wanted to keep the potential of selling FP attractive to people. If everything sells out at zero hour... you have both people who missed out mad, and no ability to sell more entitlements later.
If everything sells out at T=0, it's priced below market. I'm double-shocked. 1) Shocked that people are paying at this rate and 2) shocked that Disney hasn't been aggressively raising prices in light of #1.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Perhaps they were, but the problem is that people (myself included) don't want to wait in long queues.
The first half day park at Walt Disney World opened in 1989. Disney began persuing increased crowding by 1993 and was full steam ahead by 1994. The Magic Kingdom still hasn’t replaced all of the dining capacity removed in 1994.
A brand new park (like Epic Universe) could probably be built from the ground up to rely mostly (or entirely) on VQs, but it would probably be a giant sprawl. I don't think it's very likely to happen.
Universal tried to transition to 100% virtual queues and it didn’t work. Jimmy Fallon’s Race Through New York and Fast & Furious: Supercharged were supposed to be virtual queue only and yet today you will see a Stand-By queue. Hagrid’s Magical Creatures Motorbike Adventure somewhat often utilizes a virtual queue but this is more due to reliability issues. Velocicoaster has almost never actually implemented a virtual queue. Volcano Bay’s opening was a disaster and while it retains its virtual only model capacity was reduced because things like the lazy rivers that are supposed to just be available were filling up. Epic Universe could have been an all virtual park but Universal realized it wouldn’t work because they were not interested in building a boutique park like Discovery Bay.
 
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UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
Universal tried to transition to 100% virtual queues and it didn’t work. Jimmy Fallon’s Race Through New York and Fast & Furious: Supercharged we’re supposed to be virtual queue only and yet today you will see a Stand-By queue. Hagrid’s Magical Creatures Motorbike Adventure somewhat often utilizes a virtual queue but this is more due to reliability issues. Velocicoaster has almost never actually implemented a virtual queue. Volcano Bay’s opening was a disaster and while it retains its virtual only model capacity was reduced because things like the lazy rivers that are supposed to just be available were filling up. Epic Universe could have been an all virtual park but Universal realized it wouldn’t work because they were not interested in building a boutique park like Discovery Bay.

I know -- that was my point. Fully VQ doesn't work in a normal park.

I do think it's possible to build a non-boutique park that could operationally handle a fully VQ system, but I don't think it would be economically feasible for multiple reasons.
 

bubbles1812

Well-Known Member
Give it some time. I'm seeing hard-core, long-term Disney fans getting tired of feeling like they're just a wallet.
I think this is where you and I differ. While I know the parks well enough and generally can game plan around whatever Disney management throws at me, I have *always* accepted I am just a wallet to Disney.

They are a major billion dollar corporation, beholden to their shareholders. It may have been different once upon a time, but it’s simply not reality now. I recognize that. And while I still enjoy their product and haven’t reached that line where I don’t wish to pay anymore, it’d be naive to think Disney cares about me beyond what dollars I give to them.

And their brand power is still pretty impeccable, so while they may be losing some fans with these changes, I’m not convinced it will necessarily have substantial impact. I take care of many small patients and to say that Disney still gets ingrained from the beginning would be an understatement. There are always more people to step on the Disney Train.

(Please don’t take this as me saying I don’t want Disney to do better. I very much do. But I try to also be accepting of what their business model currently is and work within it to enjoy myself.)
 

Chi84

Premium Member
I think this is where you and I differ. While I know the parks well enough and generally can game plan around whatever Disney management throws at me, I have *always* accepted I am just a wallet to Disney.

They are a major billion dollar corporation, beholden to their shareholders. It may have been different once upon a time, but it’s simply not reality now. I recognize that. And while I still enjoy their product and haven’t reached that line where I don’t wish to pay anymore, it’d be naive to think Disney cares about me beyond what dollars I give to them.

And their brand power is still pretty impeccable, so while they may be losing some fans with these changes, I’m not convinced it will necessarily have substantial impact. I take care of many small patients and to say that Disney still gets ingrained from the beginning would be an understatement. There are always more people to step on the Disney train.

(Please don’t take this as me saying I don’t want Disney to do better. I very much do. But I try to also be accepting of what their business model currently is and work within it to enjoy myself.)
This is so true. People will stop going to WDW when they no longer find value in the product. I doubt Disney is too concerned about the diehard fans who complain but find workarounds and continue to visit. Obviously, it’s still worth it to them to keep going.

When enough people decide the value is no longer there and stop going (as opposed to complaining on a Disney site), Disney will notice. Who knows what they’ll do? Change their philosophy/business model? Sell the parks?
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
I think this is where you and I differ. While I know the parks well enough and generally can game plan around whatever Disney management throws at me, I have *always* accepted I am just a wallet to Disney.

They are a major billion dollar corporation, beholden to their shareholders. It may have been different once upon a time, but it’s simply not reality now. I recognize that. And while I still enjoy their product and haven’t reached that line where I don’t wish to pay anymore, it’d be naive to think Disney cares about me beyond what dollars I give to them.

And their brand power is still pretty impeccable, so while they may be losing some fans with these changes, I’m not convinced it will necessarily have substantial impact. I take care of many small patients and to say that Disney still gets ingrained from the beginning would be an understatement. There are always more people to step on the Disney Train.

(Please don’t take this as me saying I don’t want Disney to do better. I very much do. But I try to also be accepting of what their business model currently is and work within it to enjoy myself.)

This is so true. People will stop going to WDW when they no longer find value in the product. I doubt Disney is too concerned about the diehard fans who complain but find workarounds and continue to visit. Obviously, it’s still worth it to them to keep going.

When enough people decide the value is no longer there and stop going (as opposed to complaining on a Disney site), Disney will notice. Who knows what they’ll do? Change their philosophy/business model? Sell the parks?
By continuing to give your money to Disney parks, you're telling them that their current trajectory is okay.

Disney is burning through the good will of multiple generation families who are becoming disillusioned. Disney wants to have their cake and eat it too, but it doesn't work like that. You can't play on people's nostalgia and then treat them like a number on a spreadsheet...nor can you market yourself as a "luxury" experience and pack people so tightly into the parks and resorts that the experience is horrible. And they're doing both. I think this is going to come back and bite them HARD.
 

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