Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[lazyboy97o]

I was at AK Sunday Feb 10. TP predicted moderately busy, but it was 10/10 (lots of cheerleaders & other school trips). I did Everest, Dinosaur, Navi River Journey and we got to see the baby tigers (highlight!!!). 4 attractions for a half-day, as we were driving out that day and wanted to get home at a reasonable time. 6-8 is probably a very good day for us as passholders. The magic of being a passholder is that you don't worry about how many attractions you get per day.

I'm more curious about whether this is due to cost of staffing or wear and tear on attractions.

It’s reasonable because Disney has effectively conditioned people to accept high crowding, which is more than a function of attendance.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Probably a good time to post this beauty.

OK ... let's start out with something that might give you a headache. ... I have hesitated to post anything related to this because, aside from giving me a headache, it runs counter to the capitalist structure that has worked to elevate both America and global innovation in delivering on the promise of ideas that were once only things to dream of.

That said, this news speaks to a major departure from the Disney we all know and brings with it problems aplenty. First and foremost, much of the problem here rests with a significant subset of corporate elites who subscribe to BOS -- Blue Ocean Strategy. All the while, these same executives have a profound misunderstanding of the foundation on which it rests and, even worse, are applying it to brands/products/life experiences incompatible with such flawed strategizing.

As I said, it gave me a headache. It gives me headaches. And, yes, Bob Iger is a big believer in Blue Ocean.
Within the top ranks of TWDC, it has not gone without notice that 'outsiders' who receive access to and the ear of The Weatherman are followers of the BOS way of thinking. Very much about utilitarian marketing paired to micro and hyper-targeted cost/price modeling. "Value Innovation" is something pounded away by Disney now, and this is directly drawn from BOS.

.. .um, for those who object to the use of the terminology 'value engineering', maybe this makes it better for you ...

Blue Ocean Strategy is stunningly basic in its footprint. Essentially, you just stop -- STOP -- competing in your industry and seek only to exploit your existing base. Competition is deemed irrelevant and can be ignored because you are not drawing from that 'ocean' but poaching in your own pond instead. (Many critics have made unflattering parallels to cult building and the need to drop a company or product into a defined death cycle for 'blue ocean' to derive the short term results so-called 'red oceans' have consistently delivered and continue to in the longer term.)

I believe Blue Sky mentioned in a few posts that it appeared as though Disney was conceding the O-Town fight. Not so far off, really.

The cost savings, 'lower costs in bringing greater value' is how it is phrased, are on the corporate end and all BOS readings should keep in mind they were drawn for and from the business community.

Walt Disney created a 'blue ocean'. Disneyland was a blue ocean. Walt was an innovator, that is what innovators do. That said, applying BOS to the iconic brand that built the ocean -- the industry -- is contrary to the continued life of the same. (Think: controlled contraction.)

Nevertheless, Bob Iger appears to be a zealous 'believer' in BOS and, as we know too well, technology. The Weatherman has been sold on the idea that predictive modeling is the only way for TWDC to continue to draw profit from P&R. All of NEXT GEN relies on numbers -- here, mathematical formula or coding. When you are turned away from a half empty TS restaurant you really want to eat at, BOS followers have the equation that makes this work to the top executive in Burbank.

As we move forward within this twisted BOS experiment, you may well encounter a time in the near future when you are told there are no rooms at WDW available (to you and your family). You will stay off-site only to learn once you arrive that a significant number of rooms are not filled. According to the math born of BOS, this is factored in as all that matters is delivering what Iger now is referring to as "a more compelling growth mode" while ... his parks 'tag and release' you to the World. No access to a favorite attraction, that is factored in as well.

You want to know why morale is so low and why folks like Tony Baxter are being banished from WDI, look no further than what serves as the foundation for so much of Disney's NEXT GEN experience ... Of course, as Mitch Joel of the Harvard Business Review and something of a proponent of this kind of thinking warns, "The trick is in not making these initiatives a parlor trick, but part of a well-thought out and strategic campaign. Now, take a step back and ask yourself this: How much of my marketing is a true utility for my consumer?."

Or as put by a LinkedIn member named 'MAG', another proponent of the 'blue ocean' scheme:

"We have one client who originally hired us for a Blue Ocean Strategy project — that was very successful, by the way — who is now convinced that Blue Ocean Strategy is a mirage...The trick is to create a sustainable competitive advantage. Maybe the real challenge is to identify the unique DNA of a business and position it so that it is perceived as distinctly different from, and better than, both in-kind and not-in-kind competition."

I think TWDC, I think Bob fumbled that one. Big time. (See Tony Baxter's letter of 'resignation' and start asking questions.)

 

[The Empress Lilly]

I'm reminded of DLP in its darkest days.

It could be a complete ghost town at night, of the kind where at 20:55 I would decide to see the 21:00 nighttime spectacle, would slowly walk to the hub, and find a fine spot at 20:59.

While all the same the lines were often dismal. Daylight attractions and shows ending at 17:00. Running only one train on the Railroad. Only two Star Tours shuttles. One out of two loading sides as a rule. Half the restaurants closed by 18:00. (Which resulted in perhaps the least likely event to occur at a Florida park: difficulty finding anything to eat. Largely untouched since the golden age, the Paris castle park does not have food booths, nor snack or or souvenir carts).
On cold, drizzly off-season days you could show up at Star Tours just before park closing, with like twenty people in all of Discovery land, and still be greeted by a forty-five minute wait.

Part of this phenomenom was the result of legacy fastpass, combined with very few attractions using them. Which decreases the amount of people in the walkways and increases the ones in queues.
Low attendance, empty parks, long lines. A painful trio, considered the worst Disney could do. Until after $3 billion in data gathering investments WDW managed to top that for miserable experience: low attendance, crowded parks, long lines.

 

[ford91exploder]

Probably a good time to post this beauty.

As relevant today as the day it was posted

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We go back after our break, usually. Say 1-2 more rides and a nighttime show.

My younger daughter LOVED Harry Potter World. Number of rides she went on: ZERO. Magic comes in many forms.

I agree that enjoyment is not a universal thing...different factors for different folks

However - a system where you don't have the option to comfortably use the rides (many old as dirt) isn't really a good value for $120+ a day

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Our WDW trips have gotten progressively worse over the past 5 years for all the reasons discussed. We went down for a quick trip with a friend that hadn't been since childhood on Feb 13-14. Just no fun at all. Actually it was miserable. Wait times were ridiculous. Even the fastpasses had twice the wait as normal. I've never had the problem with wait times and overcrowding on buses either as I did on that trip. Magic band and app issues, rude staff, and much more.

I've never made a major complaint to Disney but wrote a detailed email when I got home. I stated that I understand problems can and will occur and that wasn't my main complaint. My issue was that it all seemed understaffed and the cast seemed overwhelmed. To my surprise they replaced all of our tickets. I don't know what their normal policy is when receiving complaints but I don't think they would've done that if they didn't know it was a problem. Hopefully they received a ton of complaints.

I'll use the tickets, ride Uber this time and give them another shot. If I don't see a resounding difference then I'm done with WDW until something changes. I'll get my Disney fix in California and Paris. The latter being just as, if not more, affordable(WOW airlines) as WDW with minimal lines and no stress.

I was there that week and it's ok for me because I have little desire to "rack up" the old rides I can see with my eyes closed from memory...

...but if I wasn't like that...I'd be livid at the lack of comfort for the price.

By the way...nice idea, Louisiana, to go to Disney world during Mardi Gras...but here's a tip: SOME of you have to stay home.

Believe me...i saw what my jersite neighbors did to november. It's not a "great idea" If everyone else does it.

 

[ford91exploder]

I'm reminded of DLP in its darkest days.

It could be a complete ghost town at night, of the kind where at 20:55 I would decide to see the 21:00 nighttime spectacle, would slowly walk to the hub, and find a fine spot at 20:59.

While all the same the lines were often dismal. Daylight attractions and shows ending at 17:00. Running only one train on the Railroad. Only two Star Tours shuttles. One out of two loading sides as a rule. Half the restaurants closed by 18:00. (Which resulted in perhaps the least likely event to occur at a Florida park: difficulty finding anything to eat. Largely untouched since the golden age, the Paris castle park does not have food booths, nor snack or or souvenir carts).
On cold, drizzly off-season days you could show up at Star Tours just before park closing, with like twenty people in all of Discovery land, and still be greeted by a forty-five minute wait.

Part of this phenomenom was the result of legacy fastpass, combined with very few attractions using them. Which decreases the amount of people in the walkways and increases the ones in queues.
Low attendance, empty parks, long lines. A painful trio, considered the worst Disney could do. Until after $3 billion in data gathering investments WDW managed to top that for miserable experience: low attendance, crowded parks, long lines.

And up the road there is another park using Disneys discarded playbook and their 'numbers' are better than Disney's at the moment coincidence i think not.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s reasonable because Disney has effectively conditioned people to accept high crowding, which is more than a function of attendance.

It's been a decade long experiment in conditioning...they should rename the compound "Manchuria"

For instance: declining quality for higher cost in dining...then limited access to it control overhead

 

[BrianLo]

Things are going to get worse before getting better. After 12 years of chronic underinvestment, people are going to show up in droves for all these new experiences, but for a while at least they cannot keep pace with the crowds they will attract.

Ultimately though investment is a better strategy, we are just going to have to pay for poor past decisions for the next 5 years until this investment cycle starts to *hopefully* catch up.

It's the first legitimate E-ticket in over a decade with overall less resort-wide capacity today than 2014/2015. I'm not surprised the parks feel miserable. But even if individually nothing seems like a capacity eater, we will have a good 20k-30k guests per hour capacity bump by 2021 over what we have today.

 

[voodoo321]

Very true Sirwalter. I had accounted for the cheerleading groups clearing out but not the whole state of Louisiana coming in. I didn't see that info listed on any crowd calendar site. If it was there then I missed it. Although the crowds were a bit of a shock, it was more in how they were dealt with by TDO. One biggie is that I consistently have problems with glitches in the MME. This time it cost us a ride on FoP at rope drop as our bands didn't work at the gate. I guess I could've complained while Guest Services was fixing the problem and possibly have gotten FP's. I try not to be that guy but I guess you have to be with the environment that they have created now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Things are going to get worse before getting better. After 12 years of chronic underinvestment, people are going to show up in droves for all these new experiences, but for a while at least they cannot keep pace with the crowds they will attract.

Ultimately though investment is a better strategy, we are just going to have to pay for poor past decisions for the next 5 years until this investment cycle starts to *hopefully* catch up.

It's the first legitimate E-ticket in over a decade with overall less resort-wide capacity today than 2014/2015. I'm not surprised the parks feel miserable. But even if individually nothing seems like a capacity eater, we will have a good 20k-30k guests per hour capacity bump by 2021 over what we have today.

They will have to expand during a recession to ever catch up...they won't...

 

[lazyboy97o]

Things are going to get worse before getting better. After 12 years of chronic underinvestment, people are going to show up in droves for all these new experiences, but for a while at least they cannot keep pace with the crowds they will attract.

Ultimately though investment is a better strategy, we are just going to have to pay for poor past decisions for the next 5 years until this investment cycle starts to *hopefully* catch up.

It's the first legitimate E-ticket in over a decade with overall less resort-wide capacity today than 2014/2015. I'm not surprised the parks feel miserable. But even if individually nothing seems like a capacity eater, we will have a good 20k-30k guests per hour capacity bump by 2021 over what we have today.

These investments are about maintaining crowds, not improving them.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

These investments are about maintaining crowds, not improving them.

Have to agree

 

[DTD_Parking]

By the way...nice idea, Louisiana, to go to Disney world during Mardi Gras...but here's a tip: SOME of you have to stay home.

As a Louisianian who has visited often during Mardi Gras since the 80s, I can understand the frustration, since I was there, too. But, the number of visitors from here became slightly ridiculous by the late 90s; this is not a recent development. I would argue it feels worse than usual for the same reasons listed above, manipulations of crowd-handling by the mouse, through FP+ amd other means.

 

[matt9112]

You’re right, but isn’t it a little screwed up for Disney to intentionally inflate wait times during what are actual slow times? There’s no reason wait times in January should rival summer wait times.

predictive staffing....same as when first thing in morning they only use big thunder mountain....

 

[winstongator]

The spike in wait times just does not correlate to actual attendance numbers (at least the one's issued by TEA).

There was a really nice post recession spike in 2013 resulting in record attendance in 2015 but the last couple of years WDW numbers have stagnated if not decreased.

2013 18.6 million
2015 20.5 million
2016 20.4 million

That equates to an extra 5000 people in the Magic Kingdom per day averaged over 365, yet it feels like every day is the middle of July. Or 20 million was the tipping point without any increase in capacity. I wasn't there in 2015, was the park manageable in certain months?

2015 had some quite busy times. I’ll double check the times we were there. Lots of 7-9 days and a few 6’s. Was definitely crowded, but it was our first year with annual passes so we knew we’d be back. There have been busy days the past 3 years. The only really quiet day we have seen was the Thursday before Matthew.

 

[HwdStudio]

Attendance or wait times? The theory put forth by Len is that Disney is increasing wait times despite attendance not being low. Just wondering if you feel like the common areas of the park are more crowded on busy days or if the wait times are just higher.

Attendance. Plain and simple. Subscribe to any (conspiracy) theory you like but the bottom line is that crowds are growing by the second. I do believe Touring Plans does their best to predicate crowds. I think Testa is a statistician. I think having a touring plan is awesome and touringplans has some great ones but...if all fingers are pointing to the crowd prediction info being useless I would definitely try my best to explain why and persuade people that the info was indeed still relevant. In closing, crowds are big and growing. With MyMagic+ and other changes crowds are not predictable anymore. If you subscribe to TourPlans great. There are useful tools and info available there but the crowd calenders are not.

 

[Nubs70]

Does anyone know if they are using the kind of system that Starbucks, etc. does where they micro-manage people's hours to try to optimize staffing? So that the staff don't know until a few weeks before how many days they are working that week? (Or in the case of Starbucks, sending people home mid-shift, etc.) In other words, are they managing staffing by the season, by the month, by the week, by the day, or by the hour? Does this question make sense to anyone? I'm trying to figure out how the park is getting staffed based on, well, whatever metric they're using.

What you are seeing is industrial Business Process Optimization being applied to theme parks.

Guests are considered at raw materials to be processed through attractions. Guests in standby line and FP+ lines are considered WIP (Work in Process). Based on the recent post by @lentesta , it appears WDW is varying ride capacity to maintain constant wait time (WIP) regardless of the rides ability to process guests. This approach reduces labor and maintenance costs.

Now guests do not experience slow periods during the year. Employees now experience slow times (less available work hours) during the year. This is labor savings.

 

[ford91exploder]

What you are seeing is industrial Business Process Optimization being applied to theme parks.

Guests are considered at raw materials to be processed through attractions. Guests in standby line and FP+ lines are considered WIP (Work in Process). Based on the recent post by @lentesta , it appears WDW is varying ride capacity to maintain constant wait time (WIP) regardless of the rides ability to process guests. This approach reduces labor and maintenance costs.

Now guests do not experience slow periods during the year. Employees now experience slow times (less available work hours) during the year. This is labor savings.

Depressing but accurate.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As a Louisianian who has visited often during Mardi Gras since the 80s, I can understand the frustration, since I was there, too. But, the number of visitors from here became slightly ridiculous by the late 90s; this is not a recent development. I would argue it feels worse than usual for the same reasons listed above, manipulations of crowd-handling by the mouse, through FP+ amd other means.

It was kinda insane...

But as I indicated: I fully inderstand. I live in New Jersey...and the "jersey week" that falls in early November used to be a great time to be in wdw..but from 2005-present it's awful.

So when I hear "we always go...it's great" in my interactions I stop them and say "no...it used to be great...you've ruined it now"

...I try to be polite, but the truth is hard and doesn't have manners.