Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Laketravis]

You're taking me way too literal.

Maybe just insert "they don't care about attendance AS MUCH AS".. in my post. As such, they don't care about attendance AS MUCH as long as revenue and per person spend continue to rise. They care about profitability and it seems they found a sweet spot with attendance levels and prices.

They don't want attendance going down. Which is why you see AK / DHS investments.

Disney would love nothing more than past Peak attendance levels at today's current pricing. But as I posted earlier, I would be concerned about how long it will take to get back to those attendance levels. Your graph is an excellent representation of exactly that.

 

[JD80]

Disney would love nothing more than past Peak attendance levels at today's current pricing. But as I posted earlier, I would be concerned about how long it will take to get back to those attendance levels. Your graph is an excellent representation of exactly that.

Maybe, but negative guest scores and increased operational costs the compile to larger problems reduce long term sustain profitability.

They would love to be able to double attendance but the parks would suffer and they know that.

 

[Tha Realest]

Disney would love nothing more than past Peak attendance levels at today's current pricing. But as I posted earlier, I would be concerned about how long it will take to get back to those attendance levels. Your graph is an excellent representation of exactly that.

I’d also add that much of this increased profitability and revenue is also from “new” revenue streams like LL and expanded hard ticket events.

What happens when they can’t keep concocting these new revenue streams?

 

[Laketravis]

Just some other numbers from SEC 10-K filings:

View attachment 826507

That includes the cruise ships segment which has experienced substantial growth with the addition of assets. Hard to determine how much of those gross numbers can be attributed specifically to WDW.

 

[Laketravis]

I’d also add that much of this increased profitability and revenue is also from “new” revenue streams like LL and expanded hard ticket events.

What happens when they can’t keep concocting these new revenue streams?

Right? More than a quarter billion a year of almost pure profit just by charging to stand in a different line, $200 a head for a few hours in the park "searching" for cookies and hot chocolate.

And then there's the additional ways to cut costs even further, which I personally feel they went way overboard a long time ago.

The move from being guest-centric to profit-centric will prove costly in the long run.

 

[Nevermore525]

That includes the cruise ships segment which has experienced substantial growth with the addition of assets. Hard to determine how much of those gross numbers can be attributed specifically to WDW.

Cruise industry for those years:

2023: $2.1B of the domestic revenue, with $181M in OI

2022: $1.1B in revenue with a loss of $335M

2021: $98M in revenue loss of $629M

2020: $731M revenue Loss of $255M

2019: $1.6B revenue, profit of $406M

2018: $1.5B revenue, profit of $405M

While the industry is growing it’s still a drop in the bucket in terms of the performance of the domestic revenue/OI.

 

[Laketravis]

Cruise industry for those years:

2023: $2.1B of the domestic revenue, with $181M in OI

2022: $1.1B in revenue with a loss of $335M

2021: $98M in revenue loss of $629M

2020: $731M revenue Loss of $255M

2019: $1.6B revenue, profit of $406M

2018: $1.5B revenue, profit of $405M

While the industry is growing it’s still a drop in the bucket in terms of the performance of the domestic revenue/OI.

Again, it's difficult to determine WDW revenue with any sort of accuracy.

 

[Nevermore525]

Again, it's difficult to determine WDW revenue with any sort of accuracy.

Wasn’t disputing the difficulty of parsing out exactly what WDW is doing financially vs DLR, just pointing out that the cruise industry hasn’t been as substantive on the balance sheet.

 

[Laketravis]

Wasn’t disputing the difficulty of parsing out exactly what WDW is doing financially vs DLR, just pointing out that the cruise industry hasn’t been as substantive on the balance sheet.

Although anecdotal, one thing I did notice over the last three weeks was the very large number of Florida residents in the parks and even the resorts. WDW was (and still is) offering extremely low resident rates for both park tickets/passes and resort stays. We could see them in detail on the app while onsite with a Florida IP address and I was tempted to see how I could establish a Florida residency. Those are a gamble for Disney who counts on those residents to spend big while on property, and while some will splurge with dinner at Narcoossee's or Topolino's - many don't (at least the ones I talked to ).

That pumps attendance numbers but not necessarily revenue.

 

[Nevermore525]

Although anecdotal, one thing I did notice over the last three weeks was the very large number of Florida residents in the parks and even the resorts. WDW was (and still is) offering extremely low resident rates for both park tickets/passes and resort stays. We could see them in detail on the app while onsite with a Florida IP address and I was tempted to see how I could establish a Florida residency. Those are a gamble for Disney who counts on those residents to spend big while on property, and while some will splurge with dinner at Narcoossee's or Topolino's - many don't (at least the ones I talked to ).

That pumps attendance numbers but not necessarily revenue.

Oh for sure, and while obviously the C-Suite will want to ensure revenue streams stay consistent, it’s just once you get above Jeff it’s a broader focus on the parks ecosystem as a whole rather than just a focus on WDW.

For those folks they may just see a 7% increase in theme park admissions 5% higher pricing and 2% growth in attendance, a 5% increase in resorts and vacations which they noted 3% cruise rates, 1% higher spend at hotels and 1% higher occupancy of cash room nights, and a 4% increase in merch/food/beverages across the parks system from 2% higher volumes and 2% higher prices. As well as a 7% increase in parks licensing from places like TDR. All increases from the previous year.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Although anecdotal, one thing I did notice over the last three weeks was the very large number of Florida residents in the parks and even the resorts. WDW was (and still is) offering extremely low resident rates for both park tickets/passes and resort stays. We could see them in detail on the app while onsite with a Florida IP address and I was tempted to see how I could establish a Florida residency. Those are a gamble for Disney who counts on those residents to spend big while on property, and while some will splurge with dinner at Narcoossee's or Topolino's - many don't (at least the ones I talked to ).

That pumps attendance numbers but not necessarily revenue.

Pffft... why do they want more of those freeloaders in the parks? Florida residents are as bad, if not worse, than Annual Passholders!

 

[JoeCamel]

Although anecdotal, one thing I did notice over the last three weeks was the very large number of Florida residents in the parks and even the resorts. WDW was (and still is) offering extremely low resident rates for both park tickets/passes and resort stays. We could see them in detail on the app while onsite with a Florida IP address and I was tempted to see how I could establish a Florida residency. Those are a gamble for Disney who counts on those residents to spend big while on property, and while some will splurge with dinner at Narcoossee's or Topolino's - many don't (at least the ones I talked to ).

That pumps attendance numbers but not necessarily revenue.

6 months +1 day is the requirement

 

[JoeCamel]

Pffft... why do they want more of those freeloaders in the parks? Florida residents are as bad, if not worse, than Annual Passholders!

Donnie?

 

[bmr1591]

I will say this. One of the ways Disney appears more busy than ever before is by limiting capacity on rides during certain periods. For instance, I went one week in early January and they only had one theater running for Flight of Passage. I went in early March that same year and they had four theaters running. It was faster for me to get through a longer line in March during a busier season than in January because of what they had running. Part of that is them not wanting to pay as many people to operate rides during lower times of the year. Another part is intentionally inflating the wait times to sell more Genie+ and make things feel way busier than they actually are.

 

[Tha Realest]

I will say this. One of the ways Disney appears more busy than ever before is by limiting capacity on rides during certain periods. For instance, I went one week in early January and they only had one theater running for Flight of Passage. I went in early March that same year and they had four theaters running. It was faster for me to get through a longer line in March during a busier season than in January because of what they had running. Part of that is them not wanting to pay as many people to operate rides during lower times of the year. Another part is intentionally inflating the wait times to sell more Genie+ and make things feel way busier than they actually are.

Also has the added benefit of reducing operations / employee costs.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I will say this. One of the ways Disney appears more busy than ever before is by limiting capacity on rides during certain periods. For instance, I went one week in early January and they only had one theater running for Flight of Passage. I went in early March that same year and they had four theaters running. It was faster for me to get through a longer line in March during a busier season than in January because of what they had running. Part of that is them not wanting to pay as many people to operate rides during lower times of the year. Another part is intentionally inflating the wait times to sell more Genie+ and make things feel way busier than they actually are.

We typically go in January, and this year went in October and I felt the same way. I believe someone said that this has been verified as not happening by Touring Plans, but October was definitely far busier than January is (as easily measured by the crowds at fireworks time), but our wait times for attractions were pretty much the same.

 

[Nubs70]

Too many people riding, not enough people buying...

 

[Andrew C]

Too many people riding, not enough people buying...

that’s what she said?

 

[Laketravis]

I will say this. One of the ways Disney appears more busy than ever before is by limiting capacity on rides during certain periods. For instance, I went one week in early January and they only had one theater running for Flight of Passage. I went in early March that same year and they had four theaters running. It was faster for me to get through a longer line in March during a busier season than in January because of what they had running. Part of that is them not wanting to pay as many people to operate rides during lower times of the year. Another part is intentionally inflating the wait times to sell more Genie+ and make things feel way busier than they actually are.

We typically go in January, and this year went in October and I felt the same way. I believe someone said that this has been verified as not happening by Touring Plans, but October was definitely far busier than January is (as easily measured by the crowds at fireworks time), but our wait times for attractions were pretty much the same.

I just realized it's been 10 years since I discussed WDW's adoption of yield management on another forum (Angel, I bet you remember). Funny how that led to what we were predicting would happen a decade ago. Not just the monetization of a preferred queue, but even more important that they finally figured out the intricate balance of creating mostly constant SB wait times for each attraction regardless of the number of people in the parks, SB wait times that they also determined would be acceptable to a majority of guests while encouraging another percentage of guests to pay extra not to wait, all while expanding and shrinking resources (and saving costs) to maintain that balance.

When we compare today to the days of remarkable 180 minute SB waits for Toy Story Mania, Test Track, Soarin, and others while watching reports on national evening news about some waits hitting the four hour mark while parks were regularly closed due to capacity levels, I suppose things aren't so bad.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I just realized it's been 10 years since I discussed WDW's adoption of yield management on another forum (Angel, I bet you remember). Funny how that led to what we were predicting would happen a decade ago. Not just the monetization of a preferred queue, but even more important that they finally figured out the intricate balance of creating mostly constant SB wait times for each attraction regardless of the number of people in the parks, SB wait times that they also determined would be acceptable to a majority of guests while encouraging another percentage of guests to pay extra not to wait, all while expanding and shrinking resources (and saving costs) to maintain that balance.

When we compare today to the days of remarkable 180 minute SB waits for Toy Story Mania, Test Track, Soarin, and others while watching reports on national evening news about some waits hitting the four hour mark while parks were regularly closed due to capacity levels, I suppose things aren't so bad.

Has it really been 10 years? Goodness.