Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

LSLS

LSLS

Well-Known Member
Mr. Sullivan said:
May I ask what has made you so much of an expert on this that no one else's point of view is acceptable in this discussion?

Again, no one is refuting attendance is down. The numbers don't lie. What is being refuted is people acting like the parks are on death's door, deserted, and that everyone who is going is miserable. The parks are not on death's door (you're kidding yourself if you think they haven't been in worse physical and financial shape before). Yes, attendance is down. Yes, the reasons for it are rather obvious. No, they're not in the worst shape they've ever been. No they're not collapsing right before our very eyes.

You're right, we can't argue with numbers. But you're not just talking about numbers. You're directly tearing down real people's real experiences simply because those experiences don't fit into the narrative you're wanting to tell of desolate deserted theme parks that are on their knees begging to be put down.

I don't doubt that you've probably got some knowledge on the logistics of things that others do not, but you're speaking of this whole thing in such a hyperbolic way that it's hard to take you seriously.
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He's saying that they are appearing busy or full because of design. You say nobody is denying that attendance is down (though not sure I agree on that, I've had plenty of people tell me the parks are as full as ever). BUT, in that same vein, nobody is saying that the parks collapse is imminent, or that they are ghost towns (EXCEPT for me, on the 4th of July in 2023. I will 100% stand by that statement for DHS on that day). You are right, the numbers don't lie. There are millions upon millions (don't have the numbers in front of me right now) less people visiting the parks than in the past, yet wait times are at or more than they were in 2019 and before. Hence the idea that they are appearing to be just as busy.
 
JD80

JD80

Well-Known Member
Just posting some attendance numbers to talk around. Ticket Prices show per year as well, this isn't as exact and all adjusted for 2023 dollars.

2023 attendance level equivalents:

MK 2023 = 2012
DHS 2023 = 2014
AK 2023 = 2006
EPCOT 2023 = 2016


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Tony the Tigger

Tony the Tigger

Well-Known Member
JD80 said:
Just posting some attendance numbers to talk around. Ticket Prices show per year as well, this isn't as exact and all adjusted for 2023 dollars.

2023 attendance level equivalents:

MK 2023 = 2012
DHS 2023 = 2014
AK 2023 = 2006
EPCOT 2023 = 2016


View attachment 826465
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So, not back to pre-Covid levels yet, and not rising as fast as it fell, but still rising.

Plenty of reasons for that make sense to me, most already discussed.
 
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
JD80 said:
Just posting some attendance numbers to talk around. Ticket Prices show per year as well, this isn't as exact and all adjusted for 2023 dollars.

2023 attendance level equivalents:

MK 2023 = 2012
DHS 2023 = 2014
AK 2023 = 2006
EPCOT 2023 = 2016


View attachment 826465
Click to expand...

As long as they continue to raise prices on everything and continue to sell LLMP, LLSP and now LLPP, they will make more money (in the domestic parks at least).
 
JD80

JD80

Well-Known Member
Some other trends, DHS was higher in 2022 than 2023 and I'm assuming this was because people wanted to see SWGE and MMRR to a lesser degree since their openings were washed out by COVID.

MK increase 2022 to 2023 was positive probably because of TRON.

EPCOT increase from 2020 and on is probably due to all the new shows, GOTG and the front of the park.

So park investment works. Golly.
 
Laketravis

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
John park hopper said:
Did they provide free peanuts or pretzels at the bar for the 3 buck price increase --oh silly me Disney doesn't provide free anything
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Outer Rim at the Contemporary used to but of course that went away around the same time the chocolate straw for the martini did.

Although the menu picture of the straw lives on.....
 
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JD80

JD80

Well-Known Member
Laketravis said:
If I were C level Disney, that representation would concern me. My first impression is that it could take as long as 16 years to resume the previous growth path for MK and EP, and a downward spiral for AK and HS. Already planned capex for those two will not reap any negligable benefit for years if at all.
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Your impressions are wrong.

You can see attendance levels react to park investment. The CAPEX we currently know about will boost attendance across all parks. Just look at Pandora on that chart.

Disney doesn't want 2019 levels, Just looking at the relatively flat ticket prices you can see they like these attendance levels with the current capacity across property.

They probably want more hotel occupancy (it's at 85% vs. 90% at peak) and they have to work on spending levels to make sure the restaurants are still good. But they are probably somewhat happy with where they are headed especially when they are making as much if not more money.
 
Laketravis

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
JD80 said:
Your impressions are wrong.

You can see attendance levels react to park investment. The CAPEX we currently know about will boost attendance across all parks. Just look at Pandora on that chart.

Disney doesn't want 2019 levels, Just looking at the relatively flat ticket prices you can see they like these attendance levels with the current capacity across property.

They probably want more hotel occupancy (it's at 85% vs. 90% at peak) and they have to work on spending levels to make sure the restaurants are still good. But they are probably somewhat happy with where they are headed especially when they are making as much if not more money.
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As you've pointed out, current attendance is only matching that of previous levels many years ago. If I follow the growth path up to the point of Covid related decline, it took upwards of 16 years to reach the respective parks peak attendance numbers. And that is WITH capex investments. So if I'm looking at that chart from a future growth perspective I'd be concerned how long it will take to emulate previous year over year (pre-Covid) attendance growth rates because I can't continue to make up the revenue shortfall with unlimited price increases.

I doubt Disney would ever complain or be concerned about growing attendance numbers, regardless of the impact on experience due to limited capacity. They would simply continue to throw darts at ways to monetize the grief while teasing their market with periodic new offerings. Guardians, Tron, and RoTR have set future guest experience expectations quite high.

I also don't think they are as concerned with resort occupancy as we might think, especially with plans to further increase capacity.

Ultimately it doesn't matter if they are currently making as much if not more money if a good percentage of current guests decide they are going to cut back or eliminate future visits.
 
JD80

JD80

Well-Known Member
Laketravis said:
As you've pointed out, current attendance is only matching that of previous levels many years ago. If I follow the growth path up to the point of Covid related decline, it took upwards of 16 years to reach the respective parks peak attendance numbers. And that is WITH capex investments. So if I'm looking at that chart from a future growth perspective I'd be concerned how long it will take to emulate previous year over year (pre-Covid) attendance growth rates because I can't continue to make up the revenue shortfall with unlimited price increases.

I doubt Disney would ever complain or be concerned about growing attendance numbers, regardless of the impact on experience due to limited capacity. They would simply continue to throw darts at ways to monetize the grief while teasing their market with periodic new offerings. Guardians, Tron, and RoTR have set future guest experience expectations quite high.

I also don't think they are as concerned with resort occupancy as we might think, especially with plans to further increase capacity.

Ultimately it doesn't matter if they are currently making as much if not more money if a good percentage of current guests decide they are going to cut back or eliminate future visits.
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I don't think they care about pure attendance numbers, they care about per person spend levels. There is a point with the currency capacity of each park where additional attendance starts impacting future revenue.

If all they cared about were attendance numbers they'd make the tickets cheaper.
 
Laketravis

Laketravis

Well-Known Member
JD80 said:
I don't think they care about pure attendance numbers, they care about per person spend levels. There is a point with the currency capacity of each park where additional attendance starts impacting future revenue.

If all they cared about were attendance numbers they'd make the tickets cheaper.
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That's pretty myopic. Of course they care about attendance, as well as other metrics. Operating costs will continue to increase. Price increases beget attendance declines, declining attendance begets further price increases.

Attendance growth is a mandatory component of the equation.
 
JD80

JD80

Well-Known Member
Laketravis said:
That's pretty myopic. Of course they care about attendance, as well as other metrics. Operating costs will continue to increase. Price increases beget attendance declines, declining attendance begets further price increases.

Attendance growth is a mandatory component of the equation.
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You're taking me way too literal.

Maybe just insert "they don't care about attendance AS MUCH AS".. in my post. As such, they don't care about attendance AS MUCH as long as revenue and per person spend continue to rise. They care about profitability and it seems they found a sweet spot with attendance levels and prices.

They don't want attendance going down. Which is why you see AK / DHS investments.
 

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