Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Andrew25]

But I could be wrong. I spoke to some folks at UOR who have done this calculation for their own parks, and they did not reach the same conclusion for downtime and Express Pass sales.

Great point, @GhostHost1000. Attraction downtime is an important part of standby wait times.

Disney's MDE app reports downtime for WDW's attractions. Here's the average downtime per attraction for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 YTD, per day, in minutes of downtime.

The numbers do not count planned refurbs as downtime. I can see an argument for including that, since the ride is not available to paying guests and Disney doesn't change the price of tickets.

The numbers only count outages during hours when guests are in the park. So if MDE is reporting GOTG is offline, but no guests are in EPCOT, that doesn't count in the charts below.

First, the Animal Kingdom should get credit for generally improving its ride availability:

View attachment 751673

Likewise, EPCOT has improved downtime at GOTG, SSE, and TT.

View attachment 751675

You could argue (and I would agree) that a 35% drop in downtime at Test Track isn't the headline because it's still offline 93 minutes per day on average. But it's early Monday morning, so let's try to look at the bright side of things.

Things are not great at Hollywood Studios, where four of the park's 10 rides have more than an hour of downtime per day. Also note that ROTR's downtime is so bad that the Unofficial Guide's advice is to buy the ILL for it, so you don't waste time in line for a ride that breaks down. That revenue is a perverse incentive for Disney not to fix the problem.

View attachment 751676

And the Magic Kingdom isn't great either, with another four major rides averaging over an hour of downtime per day:

View attachment 751677

Along with increasing ILL sales, it's my believe that ride downtime causes more sales of Genie+. This happens through a combination of G+ reservations for offline rides being converted to "good anywhere" G+s, which leads to longer lines at other attractions, which leads to more people purchasing G+ to avoid the long lines.

But I could be wrong. I spoke to some folks at UOR who have done this calculation for their own parks, and they did not reach the same conclusion for downtime and Express Pass sales.

Lord, at what point does RNRC go under the skin for a real refurb? I'd like to see 2023's numbers because I feel like it's been down more often since the refurb lol

 

[Tha Realest]

It doesn’t matter what lentesta says.

It doesn’t matter what travel agents say.

Don’t even believe what Disney themselves are telling you with the discounts.

Someone went to the parks last week and they seemed crowded.

Fluctuations is attendance were due to global warming.

Everything is fine.

Move along.

Great point, @GhostHost1000. Attraction downtime is an important part of standby wait times.

Disney's MDE app reports downtime for WDW's attractions. Here's the average downtime per attraction for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 YTD, per day, in minutes of downtime.

The numbers do not count planned refurbs as downtime. I can see an argument for including that, since the ride is not available to paying guests and Disney doesn't change the price of tickets.

The numbers only count outages during hours when guests are in the park. So if MDE is reporting GOTG is offline, but no guests are in EPCOT, that doesn't count in the charts below.

First, the Animal Kingdom should get credit for generally improving its ride availability:

View attachment 751673

Likewise, EPCOT has improved downtime at GOTG, SSE, and TT.

View attachment 751675

You could argue (and I would agree) that a 35% drop in downtime at Test Track isn't the headline because it's still offline 93 minutes per day on average. But it's early Monday morning, so let's try to look at the bright side of things.

Things are not great at Hollywood Studios, where four of the park's 10 rides have more than an hour of downtime per day. Also note that ROTR's downtime is so bad that the Unofficial Guide's advice is to buy the ILL for it, so you don't waste time in line for a ride that breaks down. That revenue is a perverse incentive for Disney not to fix the problem.

View attachment 751676

And the Magic Kingdom isn't great either, with another four major rides averaging over an hour of downtime per day:

View attachment 751677

Along with increasing ILL sales, it's my believe that ride downtime causes more sales of Genie+. This happens through a combination of G+ reservations for offline rides being converted to "good anywhere" G+s, which leads to longer lines at other attractions, which leads to more people purchasing G+ to avoid the long lines.

But I could be wrong. I spoke to some folks at UOR who have done this calculation for their own parks, and they did not reach the same conclusion for downtime and Express Pass sales.

I’ve been thinking about this: has ROTR ever gone on a planned refurbishment in the 4+ years it’s been opened? It desperately needs one. I get why they won’t / can’t, but am thinking just shutting things down to give it the TLC is desperately needs would be better in the long run.

 

[James Alucobond]

I’ve been thinking about this: has ROTR ever gone on a planned refurbishment in the 4+ years it’s been opened? It desperately needs one. I get why they won’t / can’t, but am thinking just shutting things down to give it the TLC is desperately needs would be better in the long run.

It is at least slightly more possible now without the Starcruiser, but yeah, it definitely needs it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What dates? Remember that they've shifted demand so this month and the next two are "busy season" dates now.

Oh that’s the highest price…but still I question that as a high water mark.

That puts the low in the $600s

 

[GhostHost1000]

Oh that’s the highest price…but still I question that as a high water mark.

That puts the low in the $600s

everything is fine so it's totally worth it... more money to blow on G+, ILL, overpriced dining, and photopass!

 

[jpeden]

I'm told Disney fired the group that handled these bookings in 2020 during the pandemic, and never reformed it. So I don't think it's happening now. I could be wrong - if you know of an agency that's doing it, let me know.

Even before that, the group was really tightening the dates and rates that they were giving out.

The agency I use was one that used that department and I was told by my TA that they did indeed lay off that entire department and they haven't brought them back.

They have inquired and gotten nothing from Disney about if/when they will bring group sales back - but maybe with how on-property rooms are selling it might not be a bad idea. We scored a number of good deals from that group, even during the holidays.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The agency I use was one that used that department and I was told by my TA that they did indeed lay off that entire department and they haven't brought them back.

They have inquired and gotten nothing from Disney about if/when they will bring group sales back - but maybe with how on-property rooms are selling it might not be a bad idea. We scored a number of good deals from that group, even during the holidays.

My understanding was they decided they hated what they represented from a philosophical standpoint…so they did it to “send a message”…
It wasn’t if they actually needed them or not.
Which they do and will always...for a variety of reasons

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The concept of explicitly targeting those "with money" was starting to be rolled out in B school marketing classes on the backside of the Great Recession around 2009.

That was my recollection as well…
It was rolled out in B A 301,302,303 and 304
@DisneyNittany

 

[monothingie]

Along with increasing ILL sales, it's my believe that ride downtime causes more sales of Genie+. This happens through a combination of G+ reservations for offline rides being converted to "good anywhere" G+s, which leads to longer lines at other attractions, which leads to more people purchasing G+ to avoid the long lines.

But I could be wrong. I spoke to some folks at UOR who have done this calculation for their own parks, and they did not reach the same conclusion for downtime and Express Pass sales.

Aren't there inherent differences within the structure of G+/ILL and EP that account for this?

The wider accessibility to alternates with EP in the event of downtime in my mind deflate the pressure guests feel to experience a "worthy" attraction, and then by extension minimize the pressure the company feels to run everything to the breaking point.

 

[JoeCamel]

When did management explicitly move to focusing on revenue over attendance? I feel like it was ... 2019/2020? Earlier than that?

It was about the time Bob got quoted saying the parks are a mature business so his take was to milk the cow harder.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It was about the time Bob got quoted saying the parks are a mature business so his take was to milk the cow harder.

Haaaaaaaaahhaahahahahaha!

 

[lentesta]

I’ve been thinking about this: has ROTR ever gone on a planned refurbishment in the 4+ years it’s been opened? It desperately needs one. I get why they won’t / can’t, but am thinking just shutting things down to give it the TLC is desperately needs would be better in the long run.

A back-of-the-envelope estimate is that a 1-month refurb of ROTR would cost this much in ILL sales (assuming 11 hour days at $20 per ILL at 30.5 days per month at 1,550 riders/hour capacity):

• $2.6MM per month if 25% of capacity was bought as ILL
• $3.4MM per month at 33% of capacity
• $5.15MM per month at 50% of capacity

Now imagine how many months it'll take to resolve the issue.

For reference, RnRC's refurb earlier this year lasted 3 months and didn't make the ride more reliable.

At 3 months of downtime, you're looking at $7.8MM to $15.5MM in lost ILL.

For a 6-month refurb, which is what I think it'd take, that's $15MM to $30MM in ILL for just one ride.

My guess is that neither the DHS park VP nor Josh D'Amaro is going to take that kind of revenue hit unless there was absolutely no other option.

 

[Splash4eva]

A back-of-the-envelope estimate is that a 1-month refurb of ROTR would cost this much in ILL sales (assuming 11 hour days at $20 per ILL at 30.5 days per month at 1,550 riders/hour capacity):

• $2.6MM per month if 25% of capacity was bought as ILL
• $3.4MM per month at 33% of capacity
• $5.15MM per month at 50% of capacity

Now imagine how many months it'll take to resolve the issue.

For reference, RnRC's refurb earlier this year lasted 3 months and didn't make the ride more reliable.

At 3 months of downtime, you're looking at $7.8MM to $15.5MM in lost ILL.

For a 6-month refurb, which is what I think it'd take, that's $15MM to $30MM in ILL for just one ride.

My guess is that neither the DHS park VP nor Josh D'Amaro is going to take that kind of revenue hit unless there was absolutely no other option.

Wouldnt you have to now factor in the money no longer lost from the daily downtime? Im assuming they would be able to sell more ILL’s? Also i know Disney no longer cares about this as much but guest satisfaction is something you cant directly tie into $ but indirectly may create more spending as well

 

[Touchdown]

A back-of-the-envelope estimate is that a 1-month refurb of ROTR would cost this much in ILL sales (assuming 11 hour days at $20 per ILL at 30.5 days per month at 1,550 riders/hour capacity):

• $2.6MM per month if 25% of capacity was bought as ILL
• $3.4MM per month at 33% of capacity
• $5.15MM per month at 50% of capacity

Now imagine how many months it'll take to resolve the issue.

For reference, RnRC's refurb earlier this year lasted 3 months and didn't make the ride more reliable.

At 3 months of downtime, you're looking at $7.8MM to $15.5MM in lost ILL.

For a 6-month refurb, which is what I think it'd take, that's $15MM to $30MM in ILL for just one ride.

My guess is that neither the DHS park VP nor Josh D'Amaro is going to take that kind of revenue hit unless there was absolutely no other option.

They would make some of that up by making SDD an ILL…

 

[Disstevefan1]

A back-of-the-envelope estimate is that a 1-month refurb of ROTR would cost this much in ILL sales (assuming 11 hour days at $20 per ILL at 30.5 days per month at 1,550 riders/hour capacity):

• $2.6MM per month if 25% of capacity was bought as ILL
• $3.4MM per month at 33% of capacity
• $5.15MM per month at 50% of capacity

Now imagine how many months it'll take to resolve the issue.

For reference, RnRC's refurb earlier this year lasted 3 months and didn't make the ride more reliable.

At 3 months of downtime, you're looking at $7.8MM to $15.5MM in lost ILL.

For a 6-month refurb, which is what I think it'd take, that's $15MM to $30MM in ILL for just one ride.

My guess is that neither the DHS park VP nor Josh D'Amaro is going to take that kind of revenue hit unless there was absolutely no other option.

Oh boy, I never thought of that! Now that ILL exists, shutting down a ILL attraction means loss of revenue, means, going forward, the only time a ILL attraction will be shutdown would be a MAJOR MALFUNCTION or, looking on the bright side A SPONSOR with MONEY

 

[lentesta]

They would make some of that up by making SDD an ILL…

Dude, they can HEAR YOU. Stop trying to manifest this into existence.

Seriously, it's a good point. When we're thinking about forecasting December 2025's crowds, a question we have is whether 7DMT, TRON, and Tiana's Bayou Adventure will all be ILL at the same time. Especially if every extra ILL ride means an additional $60MM/year in revenue.

 

[Grimley1968]

A back-of-the-envelope estimate is that a 1-month refurb of ROTR would cost this much in ILL sales (assuming 11 hour days at $20 per ILL at 30.5 days per month at 1,550 riders/hour capacity):

• $2.6MM per month if 25% of capacity was bought as ILL
• $3.4MM per month at 33% of capacity
• $5.15MM per month at 50% of capacity

Now imagine how many months it'll take to resolve the issue.

For reference, RnRC's refurb earlier this year lasted 3 months and didn't make the ride more reliable.

At 3 months of downtime, you're looking at $7.8MM to $15.5MM in lost ILL.

For a 6-month refurb, which is what I think it'd take, that's $15MM to $30MM in ILL for just one ride.

My guess is that neither the DHS park VP nor Josh D'Amaro is going to take that kind of revenue hit unless there was absolutely no other option.

Awesome data. Thank you. But wow.

In all my complaints about monetizing FP/FP+ (from a guest perspective), I'm not sure I ever realized the cash cow ILL could be for certain attractions, and why that could negatively impact WDW's refurb schedule for such attractions.

 

[lentesta]

Awesome data. Thank you. But wow.

In all my complaints about monetizing FP/FP+ (from a guest perspective), I'm not sure I ever realized the cash cow ILL could be for certain attractions, and why that could negatively impact WDW's refurb schedule for such attractions.

Genie+ and ILL have so many built-in perverse incentives that they should be a textbook chapter in long-term decision making.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Genie+ and ILL have so many built-in perverse incentives that they should be a textbook chapter in long-term decision making.

Of what not to do, if you want to have a long-term plan. "Genie+ and ILL: A Cautionary Tale of Theme Park Attraction Upkeep vs. Revenue Extraction"

 

[monothingie]

Dude, they can HEAR YOU. Stop trying to manifest this into existence.

Seriously, it's a good point. When we're thinking about forecasting December 2025's crowds, a question we have is whether 7DMT, TRON, and Tiana's Bayou Adventure will all be ILL at the same time. Especially if every extra ILL ride means an additional $60MM/year in revenue.

But if ILL and G+ factor into people's decisions NOT to go to WDW, aren't they cutting their nose off to spite their face by having made it less appealing to go to WDW? Disney has seemingly excelled at ticking off potential guests by...well...you pick your reason.

Labor Day weekend, if I wanted to get an ILL for any of the big attractions, there was no shortage of ILL availability, it was pretty much instant availability. I can't imagine that this is a desired outcome.