Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We all know that Genie+ gives each person a 1-hour time window to return and ride.

I've talked with developers who have a really detailed look at how ride capacity is allocated in Genie+. And I'm told that the maximum rate of capacity allocation is around 300 guests per hour per ride. I haven't been able to get that verified independently, so take that with a grain of salt.

That said, we've been counting interarrival times by minute at the MK for a while.

Here's what we observed this past Wednesday (9/13):

• Haunted Mansion(5 pm - 6 pm)
  • Standby line: 710 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 923 guests
• Buzz Lightyear (6 pm - 7 pm)
  • Standby line: 792 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 514 guests
• Space Mountain (7 pm - 8 pm)
  • Standby line: 590 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 1,050 guests
• Pirates (5 pm - 6 pm)
  • Standby line: 949 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 821 guests
• Jungle Cruise(6 pm - 7 pm)
  • Standby line: 657 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 633 guests
• Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (7 pm - 8 pm)
  • Standby line: 763 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 888 guests
• Peter Pan's Flight (8 pm - 9 pm)
  • Standby line: 336 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 723 guests

Space Mountain and Peter Pan jump out as outliers:

• 64% of guests are using LL during that hour at Space
• 68% at Peter Pan are using LL

Let's assume that all 300 G+ spots for those attractions for that hour were taken by guests. That's 1,050-300 = 750 guests who used the LL via something other than Genie+ at Space, and 723-300 = 423 guests at Peter Pan.

We keep track of how many VIP tour groups enter the line each hour. Those numbers are negligble - they're usually 0 per hour, and never more than 40 guests. It was 0 during this hour for both attractions

Child swap could be part of those numbers, too, and it's difficult to separate those out from DAS. But I'm guessing the child-swap numbers at Peter Pan's Flight are close to 0.

So 750 of the 1,650 guests (45%) who got in line for Space Mountain during that hour were not using VIP tours, standby, or Genie+. And 423 of the 1,059 guests (40%) at Peter Pan's Flight.

The average US household size is somewhere between 2 and 3 people, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Wealthier households, which have the money to visit Walt Disney World, average 3 people, while less wealthy households have 2.) Let's say 2.5 people to keep the math simple.

The research I've found says that somewhere between 13% (source) and 25% (source) of the US population has a disablity. And that 25% counts all disabilities - mobility, hearing, vision, etc., many of which don't qualify for DAS.

Let's assume that every DAS guest has a disability that impacts their ability to stand in line. (That's obviously not true, but it's often helpful to assume the worst case scenario). So they all qualify and need DAS.

And let's assume that the guest population in the MK is representative of the US as a whole. (It's not. People receiving Social Security disablility, for example, are significantly older and more likely to live alone. But again, let's go with the worst case scenario.)

So we'd expect a maximum of between 33% (13% x 2.5 people) and 63% (25% x 2.5 people) of the people in the park to be using DAS.

We're above the low end of that worst-case scenario for both Space and Peter Pan's Flight. But not, you know, really high capacity rides like Pirates or Buzz. (Why??)

I mean, WDW is a once-in-a-lifetime trip for lots of us. I can see how that would draw families with disabliiites who wouldn't, you know, go to the beach the same way.

But any time we're in the range of "everything has to go wrong for these data to be true", you want to look at other explanations. And one is that people will ask for DAS because it's cheaper, easier, and more flexible than using Genie+.

I could be wrong with all of this. Let me know if y'all see anything off.

Very insightful info - as always. It’s really awesome for you to share this for those of us that have a penchant for the “nuts and bolts” of it….

I particularly like the horse jockey data…cause there really are almost none. But for ten years people have indicated it is a big “thing” in the land of luxury

 

[flynnibus]

I find the service at WDW restaurants to be atrocious before they open.

While everyone is piling on here... people are glossing over the real point.

The point about the 'early entry' value being garbage if the rides you're going to the park for aren't even available is a valid one.

This isn't someone showing up at park entry time and expecting 100% service at 30 seconds after park opening. They are trying to use a PERK that Disney uses to help sell their overpriced hotels... only to find said perk is pointless if the marque attractions you're going to the park FOR... aren't available.

Some perk eh?

 

[flynnibus]

It’s still a hell of a jump to go from expecting them to do testing and maintenance before park open to intentionally delaying ride opens so they can sell genie plus.

But not as much to believe that in the off season they are reducing OpEx impacting ride availability and accepting a bit more delayed openings because of reduced crowds and reduced $$$$.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s still a hell of a jump to go from expecting them to do testing and maintenance before park open to intentionally delaying ride opens so they can sell genie plus.

…it totally is

what may not be a stretch is cutting the overnight to save “margin Pennies” and the unintended consequence be delayed openings that feed the revenue app.

They’re different…but the same…

I think it’s clear under Bob inc that they have ZERO intention of running people as fast as they can through rides with a smile on their face.

And believe it or not…that was goal #2 under Michael, Inc.

 

[Chi84]

We all know that Genie+ gives each person a 1-hour time window to return and ride.

I've talked with developers who have a really detailed look at how ride capacity is allocated in Genie+. And I'm told that the maximum rate of capacity allocation is around 300 guests per hour per ride. I haven't been able to get that verified independently, so take that with a grain of salt.

That said, we've been counting interarrival times by minute at the MK for a while.

Here's what we observed this past Wednesday (9/13):

• Haunted Mansion(5 pm - 6 pm)
  • Standby line: 710 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 923 guests
• Buzz Lightyear (6 pm - 7 pm)
  • Standby line: 792 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 514 guests
• Space Mountain (7 pm - 8 pm)
  • Standby line: 590 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 1,050 guests
• Pirates (5 pm - 6 pm)
  • Standby line: 949 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 821 guests
• Jungle Cruise(6 pm - 7 pm)
  • Standby line: 657 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 633 guests
• Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (7 pm - 8 pm)
  • Standby line: 763 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 888 guests
• Peter Pan's Flight (8 pm - 9 pm)
  • Standby line: 336 guests
  • Lightning Lane: 723 guests

Space Mountain and Peter Pan jump out as outliers:

• 64% of guests are using LL during that hour at Space
• 68% at Peter Pan are using LL

Let's assume that all 300 G+ spots for those attractions for that hour were taken by guests. That's 1,050-300 = 750 guests who used the LL via something other than Genie+ at Space, and 723-300 = 423 guests at Peter Pan.

We keep track of how many VIP tour groups enter the line each hour. Those numbers are negligble - they're usually 0 per hour, and never more than 40 guests. It was 0 during this hour for both attractions

Child swap could be part of those numbers, too, and it's difficult to separate those out from DAS. But I'm guessing the child-swap numbers at Peter Pan's Flight are close to 0.

So 750 of the 1,650 guests (45%) who got in line for Space Mountain during that hour were not using VIP tours, standby, or Genie+. And 423 of the 1,059 guests (40%) at Peter Pan's Flight.

The average US household size is somewhere between 2 and 3 people, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Wealthier households, which have the money to visit Walt Disney World, average 3 people, while less wealthy households have 2.) Let's say 2.5 people to keep the math simple.

The research I've found says that somewhere between 13% (source) and 25% (source) of the US population has a disablity. And that 25% counts all disabilities - mobility, hearing, vision, etc., many of which don't qualify for DAS.

Let's assume that every DAS guest has a disability that impacts their ability to stand in line. (That's obviously not true, but it's often helpful to assume the worst case scenario). So they all qualify and need DAS.

And let's assume that the guest population in the MK is representative of the US as a whole. (It's not. People receiving Social Security disablility, for example, are significantly older and more likely to live alone. But again, let's go with the worst case scenario.)

So we'd expect a maximum of between 33% (13% x 2.5 people) and 63% (25% x 2.5 people) of the people in the park to be using DAS.

We're above the low end of that worst-case scenario for both Space and Peter Pan's Flight. But not, you know, really high capacity rides like Pirates or Buzz. (Why??)

I mean, WDW is a once-in-a-lifetime trip for lots of us. I can see how that would draw families with disabliiites who wouldn't, you know, go to the beach the same way.

But any time we're in the range of "everything has to go wrong for these data to be true", you want to look at other explanations. And one is that people will ask for DAS because it's cheaper, easier, and more flexible than using Genie+.

I could be wrong with all of this. Let me know if y'all see anything off.

This isn't the place to discuss disability law, but even if every one of those DAS users is using it legitimately, the system will be changed if Disney's business model is no longer able to support the accommodation. People tend to forget this "second" part of the ADA. Legitimate need for the accommodation is only part of the equation.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This isn't the place to discuss disability law, but even if every one of those DAS users is using it legitimately, the system will be changed if Disney's business model is no longer ably to reasonably support the accommodation. People tend to forget this "second" part of DAS. Legitimate need for the accommodation is only part of the equation.

Here we go…and since I brought it up…let me be 100% crystal clear (that will likely be ignored):

There are ZERO dispersions being cast on DAS. None…zero.

But like it or not…on this falsely labeled “intelligent planet”…people are often selfish and will take advantages. It can be discussed by the big boys and girls in the room. In the real world…which is 1,000,000 shades of grey…not usually black and white

 

[Drdcm]

While everyone is piling on here... people are glossing over the real point.

The point about the 'early entry' value being garbage if the rides you're going to the park for aren't even available is a valid one.

This isn't someone showing up at park entry time and expecting 100% service at 30 seconds after park opening. They are trying to use a PERK that Disney uses to help sell their overpriced hotels... only to find said perk is pointless if the marque attractions you're going to the park FOR... aren't available.

Some perk eh?

But not as much to believe that in the off season they are reducing OpEx impacting ride availability and accepting a bit more delayed openings because of reduced crowds and reduced $$$$.

…it totally is

what may not be a stretch is cutting the overnight to save “margin Pennies” and the unintended consequence be delayed openings that feed the revenue app.

They’re different…but the same…

I think it’s clear under Bob inc that they have ZERO intention of running people as fast as they can through rides with a smile on their face.

And believe it or not…that was goal #2 under Michael, Inc.

Oh we’re on the same page. I think they’re cheaping out. The motivation is more money. I just don’t think that it’s designed to sell genie +. It is designed to save money. I think early entry is far inferior to the EMH that came before, and it allows them to spread out the mediocrity so it is less noticeable.

They don’t care about me. They care about my wallet.

 

[Lilofan]

…it totally is

what may not be a stretch is cutting the overnight to save “margin Pennies” and the unintended consequence be delayed openings that feed the revenue app.

They’re different…but the same…

I think it’s clear under Bob inc that they have ZERO intention of running people as fast as they can through rides with a smile on their face.

And believe it or not…that was goal #2 under Michael, Inc.

I recall years ago under Eisner reign that when we rode the Tower of Terror that the Tower cast members were mentioning some days that they broke a record on guest rides per hour on a particular day. I think that is pretty efficient in getting as many guests to ride and hear their screams on Sunset Blvd.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I recall years ago under Eisner reign that when we rode the Tower of Terror that the Tower cast members were mentioning some days that they broke a record on guest rides per hour on a particular day. I think that is pretty efficient in getting as many guests to ride and hear their screams on Sunset Blvd.

…funny…but it turns out you can make a lot of money on HAPPY people…

…but you can’t detest the concept of your customers. And that’s - sadly - been an unspoken thing on the management level for many years

 

[Weather_Lady]

Let's assume that every DAS guest has a disability that impacts their ability to stand in line. (That's obviously not true, but it's often helpful to assume the worst case scenario). So they all qualify and need DAS.

And let's assume that the guest population in the MK is representative of the US as a whole. (It's not. People receiving Social Security disablility, for example, are significantly older and more likely to live alone. But again, let's go with the worst case scenario.)

So we'd expect a maximum of between 33% (13% x 2.5 people) and 63% (25% x 2.5 people) of the people in the park to be using DAS.

We're above the low end of that worst-case scenario for both Space and Peter Pan's Flight. But not, you know, really high capacity rides like Pirates or Buzz. (Why??)

I mean, WDW is a once-in-a-lifetime trip for lots of us. I can see how that would draw families with disabliiites who wouldn't, you know, go to the beach the same way.

But any time we're in the range of "everything has to go wrong for these data to be true", you want to look at other explanations. And one is that people will ask for DAS because it's cheaper, easier, and more flexible than using Genie+.

I could be wrong with all of this. Let me know if y'all see anything off.

So is DAS in use during extended evening hours?

This might help explain why, when we visited MK and EPCOT a few weeks ago on the Wednesday and Monday that EEH were offered, we were baffled to see a constant stream of guests being admitted by CMs through the G+ lanes and getting ahead of us for major attractions, even though G+ allocation was done for the day. We briefly considered the possibility that they were all DAS guests, but almost all of them were groups of visibly normal teenagers (yes, I know many disabilities are invisible, but all we had to rely on was our own observations), so we dismissed the idea. Now I'm second-guessing that, and wondering if that's why our EEH waits were so much longer than expected.

 

[Thepuma]

There is an item called safety which trumps over any issue to open the ride safely. There are a lot of moving parts in the attraction and your conspiracy theory of Disney delaying the ride to open on purpose is frankly getting old and worn out.

And Disney are incapable of getting staff in early to test these rides before their parks open?

Id see that as a duty....people are paying a premium and so Disney should make it their duty to ensure these rides are tested 2 hours before a park opens so they can attend to any issues BEFORE the parks open, not WHEN the parks open.

 

[Thepuma]

Ah well, that explains it. Proof that Disney is conspiring against him every day he goes.

A morning isn't a day....Universal and IOA till mid afternoon...back to the hotel shower, rest, eat then back to a Disney park.

 

[Thepuma]

For something like Rise, from talking to people that work on it, it literally takes hours to restart it - to get it up and running and testing ... there are so many systems that interrelate and have to be cross tested, etc. ... it isn't something they just turn on, do 5 minutes of testing and good to go.

Now, one could say they should shut it down and take the 6months or 12 months to try and getting operating better - but they have decided running partially is better than not at all. Definitely can fault them for that but I really don't think they are sitting there saying "hey, this ride absolutely could be working right now, but nah, let's not run it"

If, once the ride is first sent round and tested etc it takes 1 hour to do, then surely the ride staff need to be in at 6am making sure the ride is fully functioning by the time the Parks paying guests arrive.

I'm getting the distinct feeling Disney is cutting maintenence staff hours down and they only actually start the rides up about 10 minutes before the park opens and so, not giving it enough time to be tested and made fully functional.

Because these rides are complex and resetting takes so long, they should have a duty to get these staff in 2 hours prior to the park opening to ensure the ride is functional. Not just turn up a 8.30 and find out that there's an issue.

 

[Thepuma]

While everyone is piling on here... people are glossing over the real point.

The point about the 'early entry' value being garbage if the rides you're going to the park for aren't even available is a valid one.

This isn't someone showing up at park entry time and expecting 100% service at 30 seconds after park opening. They are trying to use a PERK that Disney uses to help sell their overpriced hotels... only to find said perk is pointless if the marque attractions you're going to the park FOR... aren't available.

Some perk eh?

Finally, someone who gets it.

 

[Lilofan]

And Disney are incapable of getting staff in early to test these rides before their parks open?

Id see that as a duty....people are paying a premium and so Disney should make it their duty to ensure these rides are tested 2 hours before a park opens so they can attend to any issues BEFORE the parks open, not WHEN the parks open.

And you don't think the overnight mechanics at the ride attraction who maintain repair and test the ride are not doing the same ( run test rides ).? Your arguments are getting old, enjoy and keep supporting the Mouse when you go to Tokyo.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

If, once the ride is first sent round and tested etc it takes 1 hour to do, then surely the ride staff need to be in at 6am making sure the ride is fully functioning by the time the Parks paying guests arrive.

I'm getting the distinct feeling Disney is cutting maintenence staff hours down and they only actually start the rides up about 10 minutes before the park opens and so, not giving it enough time to be tested and made fully functional.

Because these rides are complex and resetting takes so long, they should have a duty to get these staff in 2 hours prior to the park opening to ensure the ride is functional. Not just turn up a 8.30 and find out that there's an issue.

They work on the ride basically 24/7 - they do maintenance over night and then it takes a while to get it going and if something isn't working, they have to restart it

 

[Lilofan]

A morning isn't a day....Universal and IOA till mid afternoon...back to the hotel shower, rest, eat then back to a Disney park.

And another post in the near future saying how terrible your vacation is going at WDW. Ironic why you still keep support the Mouse at WDW by returning to the parks daily .

 

[Thepuma]

And another post in the near future saying how terrible your vacation is going at WDW. Ironic why you still keep support the Mouse at WDW by returning to the parks daily .

When youve already paid for a 3 week tickets, you're hardly not going to attend.

What you DO actually do is make the best you can of it and vote with your feet in future, which is what we are doing with never coming back.

 

[Thepuma]

They work on the ride basically 24/7 - they do maintenance over night and then it takes a while to get it going and if something isn't working, they have to restart it

Don't you find it amazing how they work all through the night (lets pretend they do) and after 8 hours cannot get it working for park opening, but 30 minutes after the park opens...like Mickey Mouse Magic, and like clockwork, then get it working.

It just doesn't add up sorry. If they are working through the night (which they arent) then they need to pretend the park opens at 7.30..so they can magically get it working by the real opening time of 8:30.

What you're saying is, they are incompetent from 9pm till 8.30am, but then finally able to work their magic between 8.30 and 9am? Don't you find that a massive coincidence?

I know for a fact, they don't start sending karts round until a few minutes before the park opens...maybe send them round at 7am instead and iron out any issues before the park opens, not WHEN the park opens.

 

[nickys]

When youve already paid for a 3 week tickets, you're hardly not going to attend.

What you DO actually do is make the best you can of it and vote with your feet in future, which is what we are doing with never coming back.

Where did you get a 3 week ticket? They’re not on sale on the U.K. site.