Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[CastAStone]

I do wonder if people just avoid holidays more now over fear they will be more crowded

This is very clearly true. Remember, how dead the first four weeks of Star Wars galaxies edge were both coasts? Everyone wanted to avoid the crowds.

 

[CastAStone]

Were you putting a 5th gate, or do we keep that convo in Discord?

I don’t think they should ever build a fifth gate. I think they should build Frozenland and put it in Buffalo so I can take the bus there.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

It’s wild to me that they still charge enormous upcharges for summer the way they did 10 years ago. Hello, this isnt high season anymore.

I honestly think number five on your list is the biggest driver this year. It’s easy to go to Europe again, it’s possible to go to much of Asia again for the first time in 4 years, and everywhere that went crazy during the pandemic, whether it be Walt Disney World, or the Atlantic Ocean, or cabins in the woods in Tennessee, are seeing softness in booking this year. I read that AirBnB bookings are off something like 60%?

If I were Disney, I would note this as a problem, but also not be totally wigged out. It’s cyclical.

I think that connects to one point that Iger said that I think is valid in that Florida was one of the earliest places to reopen so people who wanted to/we willing to travel that is one place they went and kind got that out of their system and, like you said, more places are fully reopen now and so people are going elsewhere they haven't been (or haven't been to since prior to the pandemic) ....

But as people enjoy other places and see how the cost of those things compare to cost of Disney and just sort of shake the auto "go to Disney every (few) years" that may erode demand going forward

 

[JD80]

I don’t think they should ever build a fifth gate. I think they should build Frozenland and put it in Buffalo so I can take the bus there.

I meant 3rd property, not 5th gate.

 

[drizgirl]

No one has said it's the main factor. Everyone talking about heat and attendance is saying it's having some impact l, not a complete impact.

You're the one conflating the two.

When Iger mentions it in a big interview, he's the one conflating the issue. He's using it as an excuse for the myriad of other issues they need to be addressing but are hesitant to do so.

 

[drizgirl]

No, I just doubt the heat or taylor swift is causing numbers to drop. Do we think Disney is expecting crowds to pick back up this fall? Doesn’t look like it with all the discounts

Disney has many more problems to worry about to get crowds back.

They will pick up. They always do. But the many discounts do seem to indicate they won't pick up as much as in prior years.

 

[JD80]

When Iger mentions it in a big interview, he's the one conflating the issue. He's using it as an excuse for the myriad of other issues they need to be addressing but are hesitant to do so.

Here is the transcript:

FABER: Bob, amazingly enough, we don’t have that much time left and we haven’t gotten to parks which obviously is one of the key parts of the growth engine that you talk about and certainly has been the earnings engine. I want to talk about parks in the time that we have left if we can. Specific to attendance, there was an article in the Wall Street Journal that seemed to indicate that people aren’t going to Disney World at the rate that they did certainly a year ago and your fight with the governor there or his fight with you. Is he having an impact do you think on attendance, his continuing into the company?

IGER: No, no, we see no sign of that at all. The article that you referred to was not accurate actually. It was measuring attendance at Disney World on July 4, which didn’t really factor in temperature, which is about 100 degrees and 99% humidity on that day.

Iger discussing heat was specifically referencing July 4th and not a broader reason for attendance.

 

[drizgirl]

Here is the transcript:


Iger discussing heat was specifically referencing July 4th and not a broader reason for attendance.

Oh, I know that. But July 4th is a major holiday and the most recent point if concern in the general discussion.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Oh, I know that. But July 4th is a major holiday and the most recent point if concern in the general discussion.

Did you expect him to say that every post Disney makes on social media, no matter how happy or innocuous, is met by derision from rabid fanatics with exaggerated misconceptions and paranoia who have been riled up by politicians into boycotting for no real reason?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Ok I’ll give you people don’t want to be in the parks all day if it’s hotter than normal but how do you explain so many discounted rooms still available this summer?

I don’t think I’ve ever booked a non-discounted room except on an unexpected trip where I was stranded at Orlando airport and decided to pop over to WDW after midnight.

Between my FL and AP discounts, it has varied between 25-40% off all these years.

And before we have another “gotcha” moment, it’s typically slow on/right after Labor Day, so we can expect that.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I think there are a lot of factors that are driving attendance down. These are ordered somewhat in order of biggest to smallest impact.

1. Sticker shock - the price of tickets/hotels. If you were to measure quoted dollar vs. spent dollar you'd probably see a larger %% gap than in 2019. Quoted dollar is the amount of money travel agents are quoting, money left in the cart on the WDW website etc compared to money actually spent on a booking.
2. Perceived loss of value - comparing what you get now vs. 4 years ago - we all know the list
3. Vacation Sync - a lot of people go every year, every other, every two etc. With '20, '21 and even '22 being years people chose not to go, everyone went at once and reset everyone's every X years to go. So instead of a steady cadence of repeat customers was reset.
4. Brand Erosion - If I had to guess, the majority of brand damage suffered by Disney is not based on cultural garbage but mostly base on money. Families coming back from vacation sharing stories with other parents at baseball practice or school functions will mostly talk about the COST of a vacation, the extra you have to purchase, the nickel and diming, the waking up at 7AM and project managing your vacation. Money money money. Disney was always expensive, but it's just excessive now. In just 4 years, a pack of 6/7 tickets is $800 more (adjusted for inflation).
5. Just doing something else - after the pandemic and maybe a return trip to WDW (add in reason #2 and reason #3) families are reassessing how they vacation. Now they are going to Taylor Swift, National Parks, regional parks, beaches etc.
6. Construction - I'm willing to bet there is a non-zero amount of people who chose not to go back to EPCOT until it's not a construction pit.
7. Lack of New Rides - If I could think of a better heading, I'd combine this with #7, but there is no motivation for people to come to the parks that have been there in '21 and '22. Tron? Journey of Water? People aren't coming for that. The property desperately needs new lands, new shows, new celebrations. The 50th was a disaster. That should have been a major driving factor coming to WDW and they didn't do anything for it. But they made more money in '22 than '19 so I guess something was justified.
8. Heat - Everyone is memeing this, but for a large stretch of June into July there was a record heat wave that started in Texas. While this didn't prevent people with vacations booked from going, it did suppress the amount of hours they spent at the park. This also suppressed the amount of locals and APs from deciding on going.

People are complex, so it isn't just one thing that gets people to not book. But these are part of the equation.

Death by a thousand cuts. It’s not one thing keeping people away, it’s a combination of factors.

This is where something like heat or construction walls become a factor even though it’s always hot in FL in the summer and there’s always construction walls somewhere on property, when people are already on the fence about booking a trip something as minor as a heat wave or a favorite ride under rehab may be all it takes to break the camels back and keep them from hitting book.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

Also tied for 1

Complexity in planning and trying to enjoy a wdw vacation since Covid like we did pre-Covid

And I would include the decreased ROI at WDW now. Too high a price for what you get now. I never minded paying the higher prices of a WDW vacation over the years because we felt we got our money's worth! That has now changed for the worse, IMO.

 

[Epcot81Fan]

For me, it comes down to the fundamental shift where the company once had the mission to entertain and amaze guests to where they were not conscious of how much they were spending to now where the company clearly looks down at those that go to their theme parks as idiot rubes that can be fleeced.

You feel it throughout the parks and hotels in countless ways....

 

[drizgirl]

Did you expect him to say that every post Disney makes on social media, no matter how happy or innocuous, is met by derision from rabid fanatics with exaggerated misconceptions and paranoia who have been riled up by politicians into boycotting for no real reason?

Oh please. Disney has ridden the social media wave. They have to be able to handle the bad right along with the good. Just like everyone else.

 

[Nubs70]

Yes, shoulda mentioned that but I agree. The park reservation system being the number one detractor and limited park hopping. Even though it's mostly wide open now for reservations, it's just an added step and really turns off a lot of people. Especially when everyone else has moved away from it. Vacations always require some degree of logistical planning but Disney is just another level at this point. The rules are hard for a diehard Disney fan to keep up with. If you are someone with no experience at all you are doomed to fail, and the acronyms.... A newbie can't keep up with ADR, LL, G+, ILL, 7DMT, GE, MB, MDE, QS, BOG, ToT, etc. I mean a newbie would be like ToT.... As in tater tots??? Why am I ILL? I feel fine. G+, what's google got to do with this? BOG, why are we going to a bog?? GE? I do not have gastroenteritis.

A newbie is just gotten eaten alive by the vets. At least before they stood a fighting chance if they could run fast to get those fast passes.

It took my family till our 3rd trip to finally master paper fast passes. Our first trip, we had no clue. That's when it was free. Had it been a pay to play scenario, we would have been once and done.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Yes, shoulda mentioned that but I agree. The park reservation system being the number one detractor and limited park hopping. Even though it's mostly wide open now for reservations, it's just an added step and really turns off a lot of people. Especially when everyone else has moved away from it. Vacations always require some degree of logistical planning but Disney is just another level at this point. The rules are hard for a diehard Disney fan to keep up with.

If you are someone with no experience at all you are doomed to fail, and the acronyms.... A newbie can't keep up with ADR, LL, G+, ILL, 7DMT, GE, MB, MDE, QS, BOG, ToT, etc. I mean a newbie would be like ToT.... As in tater tots??? Why am I ILL? I feel fine. G+, what's google got to do with this? GE? I do not have gastroenteritis.

on the flip side if this is your first trip this is all you know so you don't think about how things used to be

Had family friends of ours who went for their first time ever earlier this year and they had a great time and they got the gist of everything pretty quick

 

[GhostHost1000]

Let’s not forget there was also a reason they brought back annual pass sales and dropped the direct minimum for dvc purchases to 100 points when they did.

 

[Rimmit]

on the flip side if this is your first trip this is all you know so you don't think about how things used to be

Had family friends of ours who went for their first time ever earlier this year and they had a great time and they got the gist of everything pretty quick

For a Disney virgin it is absolutely still "magical." Disney just does things that can blow your mind. If this is all you've ever known, it can be a great time, and with some research you can get the hang of G+, ILL's reasonably quickly, but it's nothing like it used to be.

The issue is that the repeat visitation has only risen over the last decade, and more and more people remember how it used to be. Change can be good, but the changes Disney's made over the last several years have just been devastating, while at the same time hiking prices way beyond inflation.

They are a victim of their own success in that in the 2010s they had:
1.)Free fast pass
2.)DME
3.)Free resort parking (which they brought back thankfully)
4.)Free magic bands
5.)Increased park hours (Back when you could stay at a park late, without an uncharge event)
6.)Park hopping whenever you wanted
7.)No Park Reservations
8.)More "reasonable" pricing (Wasn't cheap, but it was still more affordable)
9.)Evening EMH (and not just for Deluxe Guests)

If you were to pull someone from 2015 and drop them into a park now, they'd think they were dropped down the Tower of Terror into the Twilight Zone and think Disney was going bankrupt to cause them to make all the unfavorable changes.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ok I’ll give you people don’t want to be in the parks all day if it’s hotter than normal but how do you explain so many discounted rooms still available this summer?

Memorial Day for example was extremely light. I was there. So was @Sirwalterraleigh That was before the extreme summer heat

If you think Disney hasn’t been seeing a decrease in crowds recently and in the future forecasts you’re wrong. Whether or not it picks back up remains to be seen

It was beautiful…low to mid 80’s and low humidity

And it was a 2002 kinda Crowd based on my recollection

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For those obviously not paying attention…

This started back in march even..

That’s so hot: 2023 seeing hottest start ever on record

The first three months of the year is usually the time we see the coolest weather over 12 months. And although it isn’t feeling like summer yet exactly, our “cool” season hasn’t been so cool.

www.clickorlando.com

Southern Florida is in it’s hottest year on record already…

July 4th week?
“It's been a record-breaking week so far in Florida, starting Tuesday when high temperatures in the upper 90s set records. Naples tied a record at 96, while Tampa and Sarasota reached a record 97 degrees, Sanford hit 98, and Brooksville hit 99. Tampa's all-time record high is 99.”

Florida expected to fry yet again Thursday as sultry humidity makes it feel nearly 110 degrees

The summer hot spell in Florida continues to bake the Sunshine State in a sultry heat-and-humidity combo that has pushed the limits of what even long-time Floridians have experienced.

www.foxweather.com

Right now it’s really southern florida that is really in the crosshairs breaking all the records for highs and consecutive days with extreme heat but earlier in the season even northern Florida was in extremes.

This year is not just ‘its florida in the summer…duh’ — Florida and the entire south has been cooked. Right now it’s southern Florida and the southwest in the extreme pattern

That has not a damn thing to do with attendance…the people that generate the crowds don’t book a week or two months out. Some people that travel actually don’t stay in Florida…most actually…

This is one of the biggest “whiff” explanations you could conjure

Nobody predicts a “heat dome” in the booking window.
Strike one

No one has said it's the main factor. Everyone talking about heat and attendance is saying it's having some impact l, not a complete impact.

You're the one conflating the two.

The core reason is price is up and demand is down

Try not to clutch the pearls TOO hard