Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Will you all continue to update us on the stocks eventual upwards momentum as well with such vigor?

In order to be snarky…you need to haves
a solid case to be made

I invite you to make it

 

[Lilofan]

Oh ... are we back to tracking the stock price?

Probably a reaction to the (mostly eclipsed) news that DLR CMs are authorizing a strike in their labor negotiations. That's definitely going to put downward pressure on profits, should the union secure a better deal.

Any of the stock watchers want to come out and admit management would be fools to allow the union to get better wages? Anyone?

CA is a pro working class state so a general strike which the DLR cast have recently majority voted for would not be good.

 

[BrianLo]

In order to be snarky…you need to haves
a solid case to be made

I invite you to make it

Oh the case is when the stock goes up the peanut gallery moves onto other metrics. When it goes down it is the only thing of merit and we see post after post salivating over the decline.

The stock price is completely disconnected from movies or the parks. It's all driven by linear decline and streaming over-or-under reaction.

Why? Parks are closed. Stock hits record high. Theatres are closed, stock hits record high.

Marvels and Wish releases, stock starts marching upwards. Inside Out 2 over performs, Deadpool 3 seems poised to dazzle, stock goes down.

I don't have a problem with the stock discussion, but it is frequently trotted out without context like it means something. Unless this is a linear/streaming thread, it doesn't mean much. The stock is currently down because all legacy media industry peers (aka those holding the linear bags) are down to varying similar or far worse degrees. Not because Florida is "too hot", as Bob would say.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh the case is when the stock goes up the peanut gallery moves onto other metrics. When it goes down it is the only thing of merit and we see post after post salivating over the decline.

The stock price is completely disconnected from movies or the parks. It's all driven by linear decline and streaming over-or-under reaction.

Why? Parks are closed. Stock hits record high. Theatres are closed, stock hits record high.

Marvels and Wish releases, stock starts marching upwards. Inside Out 2 over performs, Deadpool 3 seems poised to dazzle, stock goes down.

I don't have a problem with the stock discussion, but it is frequently trotted out without context like it means something. Unless this is a linear/streaming thread, it doesn't mean much. The stock is currently down because all legacy media industry peers (aka those holding the linear bags) are down to varying similar or far worse degrees. Not because Florida is "too hot", as Bob would say.

Ok…so make the case of why it is gonna shoot up…based on the criteria you just have stated which I don’t disagree with

 

[BrianLo]

Ok…so make the case of why it is gonna shoot up…based on the criteria you just have which I don’t disagree with

Shoot might be a misnomer. But eventually all the linear decline will have been fully released and it will stop weighing down on its pricing. We're into a five year cycle of legacy media decline and I feel like that's coming to an end. Eventually at the end of the day the DIS will be driven by its actual long-term units (studio/theatrical, experiences, streaming, sports). Because Linear will have finally withered and died as a business unit of merit for them.

I felt positive already on the company as a whole when I called the bottom last Fall. Quite frankly, if we start going to the 80's again, which we might, I'll buy more. Why? Largely because things I wasn't able to know for sure, I actually have answers to. Namely:

1) Has Disney irreparably harmed their ability for theatrical hits ever again, namely in Animation?
2) Will the Florida environment ever be pro investment again? To a lesser extent Anaheim
3) Will Perlmutter and Rasulo toxic business practices be let back in the door?

 

[GhostHost1000]

“Progress is impossible without change”
- Walt Disney

“The riskiest thing we can do is just maintain the status quo”
- Bob Iger

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Shoot might be a misnomer. But eventually all the linear decline will have been fully released and it will stop weighing down on its pricing. We're into a five year cycle of legacy media decline and I feel like that's coming to an end. Eventually at the end of the day the DIS will be driven by its actual long-term units (studio/theatrical, experiences, streaming, sports). Because Linear will have finally withered and died as a business unit of merit for them.

I felt positive already on the company as a whole when I called the bottom last Fall. Quite frankly, if we start going to the 80's again, which we might, I'll buy more. Why? Largely because things I wasn't able to know for sure, I actually have answers to. Namely:

1) Has Disney irreparably harmed their ability for theatrical hits ever again, namely in Animation?
2) Will the Florida environment ever be pro investment again? To a lesser extent Anaheim
3) Will Perlmutter and Rasulo toxic business practices be let back in the door?

The markets are actually telling you something deeper: that they don’t envision any end to that decline.

Linear revenues were the easiest money in entertainment history. There is no replacement.

It’s been declining for 15 years and no viable alternatives have emerged yet.

Disney is losing half their revenue with linear…and still falling.

You can’t expect P&R to fill that void…which is the cracks we see now.

Movies, consumer products never made that much…so there’s no relief there.

Wall Street is telling you what they think and have been for years.

To side with bad managers predicting “back to normal” on their way out is full. It no longer exists.

 

[BrianLo]

The markets are actually telling you something deeper: that they don’t envision any end to that decline.

Linear revenues were the easiest money in entertainment history. There is no replacement.

It’s been declining for 15 years and no viable alternatives have emerged yet.

Disney is losing half their revenue with linear…and still falling.

You can’t expect P&R to fill that void…which is the cracks we see now.

Movies, consumer products never made that much…so there’s no relief there.

Wall Street is telling you what they think and have been for years.

To side with bad managers predicting “back to normal” on their way out is full. It no longer exists.

That’s exactly as I said though. Eventually linear has been priced out of the company by the market. It’s not a matter of that specific revenue stream ever coming back and more a matter of the company being worth its remaining units. It’s a matter of is there any forward growth In those units from that bottoming point.

I think the forward looking market has bottomed out all the remaining linear value and the company is now worth the remaining units more or less.

Linear was 40% of Revenue in 2018, 34% in 2019 as streaming was coming more online and now is only 12.5%. All the downside risk has been mostly priced in.

Not only is the company down over five years, it’s really down in a post inflationary sense. The bottom has been mostly reached unless the other subunits of the company are all in decline, which I really don’t think they are. Streaming profiteering is still in its early infancy and I think experiences is still a growth vehicle. Particularly with cruises, which are practically mini new-parks both in terms of upstart and revenue. Despite P&R seeming awfully anemic coming off the Chapek years, we do have a cluster bomb of three ships coming very soon. Essentially the cruise business is doubling in size over the next two years!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That’s exactly as I said though. Eventually linear has been priced out of the company by the market. It’s not a matter of that specific revenue stream ever coming back and more a matter of the company being worth its remaining units. It’s a matter of is there any forward growth In those units from that bottoming point.

I think the forward looking market has bottomed out all the remaining linear value and the company is now worth the remaining units more or less.

Linear was 40% of Revenue in 2018, 34% in 2019 as streaming was coming more online and now is only 12.5%. All the downside risk has been mostly priced in.

Not only is the company down over five years, it’s really down in a post inflationary sense. The bottom has been mostly reached unless the other subunits of the company are all in decline, which I really don’t think they are. Streaming profiteering is still in its early infancy and I think experiences is still a growth vehicle. Particularly with cruises, which are practically mini new-parks both in terms of upstart and revenue. Despite P&R seeming awfully anemic coming off the Chapek years, we do have a cluster bomb of three ships coming very soon. Essentially the cruise business is doubling in size over the next two years!

Do me a favor…

Say you think it’s “bottomed out” without stating where the upside is, again?

 

[BrianLo]

Do me a favor…

Say you think it’s “bottomed out” without stating where the upside is, again?

I’m not sure what your question is?

Are you asking me to ignore my optimism for the future of the remaining units? I mean that is why I think there is a bottom, because there has to be an eventual upside. If there is no upside - it’s a company in eternal decline, which is kind of silly, the company has a ton of value in its existing holdings. So I can’t say there is both a bottom and not an upside.

I don’t think the company’s market capitalization reflects properly on what it would sell for parts, once again. Which is exactly what brought Nelson like a moth to the flame the first and second time.

Everyone is free to disagree, but that’s my personal positioning. I’m starting to feel the company is becoming broadly under valued. Forward Guidance is needed in August and at the very latest there needs to be new medium term targets set by the company by end of fiscal year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m not sure what your question is?

Are you asking me to ignore my optimism for the future of the remaining units? I mean that is why I think there is a bottom, because there has to be an eventual upside. If there is no upside - it’s a company in eternal decline, which is kind of silly, the company has a ton of value in its existing holdings. So I can’t say there is both a bottom and not an upside.

I don’t think the company’s market capitalization reflects properly on what it would sell for parts, once again. Which is exactly what brought Nelson like a moth to the flame the first and second time.

Everyone is free to disagree, but that’s my personal positioning. I’m starting to feel the company is becoming broadly under valued. Forward Guidance is needed in August and at the very latest there needs to be new medium term targets set by the company by end of fiscal year.

Ok…

My personal take…after watching this ship hit the Iceberg in slo mo for over a decade…is that one thing it is not is “undervalued”

The way it’s being run is criminal…frankly

 

[BrianLo]

Ok…

My personal take…after watching this ship hit the Iceberg in slo mo for over a decade…is that one thing it is not is “undervalued”

The way it’s being run is criminal…frankly

Fair enough, I know that’s where we differ.

But eventually the excuse cannot be linear anymore once that ship has fully sunk… and it’s basically sunk from my perspective. The percentage mix to the company dropped off a cliff the last five years. The pessimist could say there is still 12.5% left to go, but that’s not how the stock market works. It’s already gone in their eyes.

 

[DisneyHead123]

I’m not sure what your question is?

Are you asking me to ignore my optimism for the future of the remaining units? I mean that is why I think there is a bottom, because there has to be an eventual upside. If there is no upside - it’s a company in eternal decline, which is kind of silly, the company has a ton of value in its existing holdings. So I can’t say there is both a bottom and not an upside.

I don’t think the company’s market capitalization reflects properly on what it would sell for parts, once again. Which is exactly what brought Nelson like a moth to the flame the first and second time.

Everyone is free to disagree, but that’s my personal positioning. I’m starting to feel the company is becoming broadly under valued. Forward Guidance is needed in August and at the very latest there needs to be new medium term targets set by the company by end of fiscal year.

I think the promise of a big revenue stream from streaming was a bitter disappointment for investors. (For the time being, at least, it may become truly profitable one day.) Digital products are comparatively “easy money” while experiences are incredibly labor intensive and rely on many moving parts that can break down. I’ve said before streaming felt like a gold rush type movement similar to the dotcom boom. But I agree that there’s still a lot of value in the parks, cruises, experiences, and merchandise, and the stock probably doesn’t fully reflect that right now.

 

[BrianLo]

I think the promise of a big revenue stream from streaming was a bitter disappointment for investors. (For the time being, at least, it may become truly profitable one day.) Digital products are comparatively “easy money” while experiences are incredibly labor intensive and rely on many moving parts that can break down. I’ve said before streaming felt like a gold rush type movement similar to the dotcom boom. But I agree that there’s still a lot of value in the parks, cruises, experiences, and merchandise, and the stock probably doesn’t fully reflect that right now.

Netflix has quietly reached 25% margins and is still going. Flipping back, looks like linear margins at Disney circa 2010 was 30%.

I’m not saying Disney is remotely on that track, but Netflix has started to demonstrate it isn’t hopeless. And in a shockingly quick timeframe from them tanking in 2022. The pie is smaller, but DTC cuts out the middle men and allows the media/tech companies to have a bigger slice of a smaller pie.

The massive land grab phase of streaming is largely coming to an end. But the profiteering (price hikes) are still in progress. Netflix being at the forefront for pushing towards the ceiling. Which they surprisingly still haven’t hit.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Netflix has quietly reached 25% margins and is still going. Flipping back, looks like linear margins at Disney circa 2010 was 30%.

I’m not saying Disney is remotely on that track, but Netflix has started to demonstrate it isn’t hopeless. And in a shockingly quick timeframe from them tanking in 2022. The pie is smaller, but DTC cuts out the middle men and allows the media/tech companies to have a bigger slice of a smaller pie.

The massive land grab phase of streaming is largely coming to an end. But the profiteering (price hikes) are still in progress. Netflix being at the forefront for pushing towards the ceiling. Which they surprisingly still haven’t hit.

I think Netflix is very bad measuring stick to Disney

They have very different histories and have been handled completely differently

 

[DisneyHead123]

Netflix has quietly reached 25% margins and is still going. Flipping back, looks like linear margins at Disney circa 2010 was 30%.

I’m not saying Disney is remotely on that track, but Netflix has started to demonstrate it isn’t hopeless. And in a shockingly quick timeframe from them tanking in 2022. The pie is smaller, but DTC cuts out the middle men and allows the media/tech companies to have a bigger slice of a smaller pie.

The massive land grab phase of streaming is largely coming to an end. But the profiteering (price hikes) are still in progress. Netflix being at the forefront for pushing towards the ceiling. Which they surprisingly still haven’t hit.

I’m still not sure about the math of D+. To my admittedly untrained eye, the difference between D+ and Netflix is largely that Netflix isn’t afraid to embrace a lot of filler and fluff, which Disney has largely resisted. Understandable, but I don’t know how they turn a profit on higher production budget stuff. My take has always been they’ll have to go to a la carte pricing the way that Amazon does. Or embrace fluff, which I am not necessarily averse to, but Iger has said he doesn’t want to go that route.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m still not sure about the math of D+. To my admittedly untrained eye, the difference between D+ and Netflix is largely that Netflix isn’t afraid to embrace a lot of filler and fluff, which Disney has largely resisted. Understandable, but I don’t know how they turn a profit on higher production budget stuff. My take has always been they’ll have to go to a la carte pricing the way that Amazon does. Or embrace fluff, which I am not necessarily averse to, but Iger has said he doesn’t want to go that route.

Netflix is older and has much higher ARPU, a longer slow march on its subscriber base. Its ARPU domestically is still almost double Disney. That’s largely where the difference is coming from for margins still. Not actually the subscriber pool or spend.

D+ is still undoing the admittedly probably too low introductory price that somewhat devalued their legacy content. Which only worsened when Chapek started to give first run theatrical releases for that tiny subscriber fee. Particularly for their India arm, which is now spun off officially.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Netflix is older and has much higher ARPU, a longer slow march on its subscriber base. Its ARPU domestically is still almost double Disney. That’s largely where the difference is coming from for margins still. Not actually the subscriber pool or spend.

D+ is still undoing the admittedly probably too low introductory price that somewhat devalued their legacy content. Which only worsened when Chapek started to give first run theatrical releases for that tiny subscriber fee. Particularly for their India arm, which is now spun off officially.

I guess it depends on whether or not their subscribers stick around with Netflix rates. I’m not 100% sure about that given their smaller library, but it’s not out of the question of course.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Netflix is older and has much higher ARPU, a longer slow march on its subscriber base. Its ARPU domestically is still almost double Disney. That’s largely where the difference is coming from for margins still. Not actually the subscriber pool or spend.

D+ is still undoing the admittedly probably too low introductory price that somewhat devalued their legacy content. Which only worsened when Chapek started to give first run theatrical releases for that tiny subscriber fee. Particularly for their India arm, which is now spun off officially.

The problem is Disney hasn’t produced nearly enough content

It’s mostly been bad/not compelling

They WAY overspend on it…

And as bad managers do…they already slashed content cost when they should be going all in.

It’s really some excellent work by the bobs

Not even getting onto tanking franchises that should be catalysts/drivers

 

[Tha Realest]

I’m still not sure about the math of D+. To my admittedly untrained eye, the difference between D+ and Netflix is largely that Netflix isn’t afraid to embrace a lot of filler and fluff, which Disney has largely resisted.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but Disney has libraries upon libraries of Wonderful World of Disney films, the entirety of the Disney Channel libraries, and the first year or two of D+ programming that can be characterized as “a lot of filler and fluff.”