Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Why is Disney the only park operater considered to be wrong for charging for skip the line?

Because there’s sucks the most from nearly any angle you want to look at it…

Are you saying Express paas isnt a large revenue generator for Universal?

It is…but is an upsell not required…there system manages capacity much more effectively

I hope they remember their DVC members
In these additional inclusions

Who?

In many ways WDW is more of a challenge than a vacation.

And that’s why they are experiencing “sales issues”…amongst others

 

[JD80]

Hotel pricing has definitely dropped off the highs back in 2022, parks are filled with lots of FL residents now taking advantage of 2-3 day $200 ticket deals.

I am very interested in seeing what happens when people start planning trips for Epic Universe and are met with a ~$300 3-day Universal ticket and a ~$600 WDW 4-day ticket (and that's without park hoppers and picking an average priced day).

Oh it's going to be a blood bath. The average person in 2025, before looking at pricing, is thinking about an Orlando trip in three different ways:

1) Standard WDW trip but with a day for EU
2) Universal Trip but with a day for WDW
3) Universal Trip

Regardless if that person is a WDW fan or not, EU is going to be on everyone's mind in 2025. Disney and Universal are going to bitterly fighting to get days from people and Uni has the upper hand.

Disney is going to have to fight to get as many #1s as possible. You are going to lose a lot of people to a single day at EU. That is the baseline attrition you need to fight for.

The problem for Disney is that Universal is going to play hard at making their resort a full week stay. In order to do that, they will have no issue to HIGHLY incentivize you for a multi day stay like you said. Buy 2 days at EU and get 2 days at UFL/IoA for steep discounts for example.

To prevent that from enticing too many people, Disney is going to have to do something to incentive at least more day trips to WDW from Universal to at least capture some losses. Disney has to fight hard for as many #1s as possible while being aggressive to save as many #2s from being #3s.

Ultimately we win in every scenario as a consumer.

edit:
Yes there will be plenty of people who are doing a WDW only trip and won't consider Universal at all. There is still a demo of families with very small children that Universal won't capture yet.

 

[Laketravis]

They coulda saved billions, eliminated several iterations, unnecessary complexity and bad press had they simply kept the original FP machines and added a tap-to-pay.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Yes there will be plenty of people who are doing a WDW only trip and won't consider Universal at all. There is still a demo of families with very small children that Universal won't capture yet.

Me: no children, just not interested in EU. Still haven't done any Harry Potter stuff and I'm very into that.

It will have to be an off year when I'm not going to WDW, and a great deal. The last few times we explored bothering with Universal, the ticket prices were off-putting. I haven't been in nearly 20 years, and have only ever been twice. (Exception for Volcano Bay once for a "bachelor party.")

 

[UNCgolf]

Oh it's going to be a blood bath. The average person in 2025, before looking at pricing, is thinking about an Orlando trip in three different ways:

1) Standard WDW trip but with a day for EU
2) Universal Trip but with a day for WDW
3) Universal Trip

Regardless if that person is a WDW fan or not, EU is going to be on everyone's mind in 2025. Disney and Universal are going to bitterly fighting to get days from people and Uni has the upper hand.

Disney is going to have to fight to get as many #1s as possible. You are going to lose a lot of people to a single day at EU. That is the baseline attrition you need to fight for.

The problem for Disney is that Universal is going to play hard at making their resort a full week stay. In order to do that, they will have no issue to HIGHLY incentivize you for a multi day stay like you said. Buy 2 days at EU and get 2 days at UFL/IoA for steep discounts for example.

To prevent that from enticing too many people, Disney is going to have to do something to incentive at least more day trips to WDW from Universal to at least capture some losses. Disney has to fight hard for as many #1s as possible while being aggressive to save as many #2s from being #3s.

Ultimately we win in every scenario as a consumer.

edit:
Yes there will be plenty of people who are doing a WDW only trip and won't consider Universal at all. There is still a demo of families with very small children that Universal won't capture yet.

I think the average person has no idea Epic Universe exists, much less that it's opening next year. Disney still has a significant advantage there as the default theme park vacation, in addition to the families with small children that you mention -- and ones who aren't really interested in thrill rides, as that's still the majority of EU's offerings.

I'll definitely check out EU eventually, but the park doesn't look especially great to me and the attraction lineup only has a couple of rides that seem interesting. I think the Celestial Park area is beautiful and will be fun to explore, and I'm looking forward to the monsters and HP areas, but the Nintendo land seems mediocre at the moment (not a fan of the Mario Kart ride at all) and HTTYD doesn't look like it offers much to me. I don't dislike thrill rides, but I prefer heavily themed ones -- standard roller coasters kind of bore me.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

That will get people to look but I don't think it'll have a major impact.

DME saves you maybe $100 in uber/bus costs per family? Free G+ at deluxe books when rack rate is way too expensive for "average" guests? Even then, a family of 4 you're maybe saving $100 per park day? That's basically in the same realm as a rack rate discount you'd get. In same cases a 30% rack rate discount may be a better deal.

They won't have a significant impact in bookings unless they start offering ticket discounts/deals.

Just for an extreme example (family of 4), the cost of 4 park tickets today is around the same cost (adjusted for inflation) as a package of 10 in 2019. Today, going from 3 to 4 tickets is roughly +$600. In 2019 it was +$440 (overall cost $2300 vs $1900).

Going from 4 to 5? 2024: +$300 | 2019: $50

Anyway, the biggest cost driver in a WDW vacation is park tickets, at least for families. Value/Mods prices aren't awful.

Bright Sun travels just did a YouTube video comparing a day at MK in 2017 to a day at MK in 2024 and it’s shocking. I knew prices were up significantly but it’s even worse than I expected, a 44% increase in 7 years.

 

[Lilofan]

I think the average person has no idea Epic Universe exists, much less that it's opening next year. Disney still has a significant advantage there as the default theme park vacation, in addition to the families with small children that you mention -- and ones who aren't really interested in thrill rides, as that's still the majority of EU's offerings.

I'll definitely check out EU eventually, but the park doesn't look especially great to me and the attraction lineup only has a couple of rides that seem interesting. I think the Celestial Park area is beautiful and will be fun to explore, and I'm looking forward to the monsters and HP areas, but the Nintendo land seems mediocre at the moment (not a fan of the Mario Kart ride at all) and HTTYD doesn't look like it offers much to me. I don't dislike thrill rides, but I prefer heavily themed ones -- standard roller coasters kind of bore me.

Your first sentence sums up the mentality of the typical tourist coming to Orlando. The premier destination will always be WDW and SW and UO will be a side trip if even that during their vacation.

 

[JD80]

Me: no children, just not interested in EU. Still haven't done any Harry Potter stuff and I'm very into that.

It will have to be an off year when I'm not going to WDW, and a great deal. The last few times we explored bothering with Universal, the ticket prices were off-putting. I haven't been in nearly 20 years, and have only ever been twice. (Exception for Volcano Bay once for a "bachelor party.")

Sure there are always exceptions.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Your first sentence sums up the mentality of the typical tourist coming to Orlando. The premier destination will always be WDW and SW and UO will be a side trip if even that during their vacation.

"The premier auto in the US will always be a GM or Ford. Honda and Toyota (and later, Hyundai and Kia) will be small players in this market, if at all."

Even the most entrenched, legacy businesses can be surpassed. History tells us that this happens when smaller competitors take advantage of stagnation and complacency. It takes years of focus and investment, but it happens. And I'm fairly certain these wheels are already turning for UO.

 

[Lilofan]

"The premier auto in the US will always be a GM or Ford. Honda and Toyota (and later, Hyundai and Kia) will be small players in this market, if at all."

Even the most entrenched, legacy businesses can be surpassed. History tells us that this happens when smaller competitors take advantage of stagnation and complacency. It takes years of focus and investment, but it happens. And I'm fairly certain these wheels are already turning for UO.

Some still dream that UO will overtake WDW in terms of attendance and profits and hope for the demise of WDW. Some can still keep dreaming.

 

[Jrb1979]

Some still dream that UO will overtake WDW in terms of attendance and profits and hope for the demise of WDW. Some can still keep dreaming.

Some dream that danger lurks around every corner.

 

[JD80]

I think the average person has no idea Epic Universe exists, much less that it's opening next year. Disney still has a significant advantage there as the default theme park vacation, in addition to the families with small children that you mention -- and ones who aren't really interested in thrill rides, as that's still the majority of EU's offerings.

I'll definitely check out EU eventually, but the park doesn't look especially great to me and the attraction lineup only has a couple of rides that seem interesting. I think the Celestial Park area is beautiful and will be fun to explore, and I'm looking forward to the monsters and HP areas, but the Nintendo land seems mediocre at the moment (not a fan of the Mario Kart ride at all) and HTTYD doesn't look like it offers much to me. I don't dislike thrill rides, but I prefer heavily themed ones -- standard roller coasters kind of bore me.

I think the hype train will be in full force by end of the year into the spring once they can start putting cameras on the ground showing stuff off in the real world.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Some still dream that UO will overtake WDW in terms of attendance and profits and hope for the demise of WDW. Some can still keep dreaming.

Those pulling the fire alarm aren't the ones wanting the building to burn.

For the first time in any market, Disney is about to have a fully-scaled and directly comparable competitor. Universal is adding both park and hotel capacity, and so far delivers often more attractive pricing and much simpler booking and in-park experiences.

Iger & Co have known exactly what was coming for several years. Thus far, they've stuck to the same arrogance that nearly sank the Big 3 in the 70s and 80s.

I don't want them to fail. I want them to rebound from their recent stagnation is development, align their pricing with the experience they're delivering, and secure the magic that is Disney Parks for another 70 years.

Nostalgia rarely lasts beyond 2 generations.

 

[JD80]

Bright Sun travels just did a YouTube video comparing a day at MK in 2017 to a day at MK in 2024 and it’s shocking. I knew prices were up significantly but it’s even worse than I expected, a 44% increase in 7 years.

I saw that video and talked about it in discord and on a podcast! All their prices don't account for inflation. If you do, it's not that drastic.

2024: $886.34
2017: $721.26 ($567.90 in 2017)

Difference: $165.08 - not surprising with G+/ILL/Transportation costs added in.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Even the most entrenched, legacy businesses can be surpassed. History tells us that this happens when smaller competitors take advantage of stagnation and complacency. It takes years of focus and investment, but it happens. And I'm fairly certain these wheels are already turning for UO.

A few years ago I’d have said there was no way anyone will ever dethrone Disney but now I agree it’s possible, there was a time KMart, Sears, Blockbuster, Kodak, etc, etc, etc all looked untouchable too.

If Disney doesn’t make changes to counter their improving competition, especially if they keep making poor guest service decisions while the others are improving, I could see them being passed up.

 

[UNCgolf]

I think the hype train will be in full force by end of the year into the spring once they can start putting cameras on the ground showing stuff off in the real world.

Oh I'm sure they're going to advertise a ton -- I just don't think the average guest pays any attention to what's going on with/at theme parks at all. I remember people going to Disney in the late 90s/early 2000s and not even knowing Animal Kingdom existed.

 

[SamusAranX]

That will get people to look but I don't think it'll have a major impact.

DME saves you maybe $100 in uber/bus costs per family? Free G+ at deluxe books when rack rate is way too expensive for "average" guests? Even then, a family of 4 you're maybe saving $100 per park day? That's basically in the same realm as a rack rate discount you'd get. In same cases a 30% rack rate discount may be a better deal.

They won't have a significant impact in bookings unless they start offering ticket discounts/deals.

Just for an extreme example (family of 4), the cost of 4 park tickets today is around the same cost (adjusted for inflation) as a package of 10 in 2019. Today, going from 3 to 4 tickets is roughly +$600. In 2019 it was +$440 (overall cost $2300 vs $1900).

Going from 4 to 5? 2024: +$300 | 2019: $50

Anyway, the biggest cost driver in a WDW vacation is park tickets, at least for families. Value/Mods prices aren't awful.

Nail meet head.

There’s no free lunch. If WDW gave a free genie+ with resort bookings they would just charge more in the hotel cost and absorb it there. Aka the DDP.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They coulda saved billions, eliminated several iterations, unnecessary complexity and bad press had they simply kept the original FP machines and added a tap-to-pay.

But then we wouldn’t have had tiered fastpass 2 months in advance from the toilet…and that was so “magical”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh I'm sure they're going to advertise a ton -- I just don't think the average guest pays any attention to what's going on with/at theme parks at all. I remember people going to Disney in the late 90s/early 2000s and not even knowing Animal Kingdom existed.

I think the internet killed that

Wdw travel was boosted immensely in the golden age by promos on gma and Regis…

But no one wants TV ads (cough) anymore and their effectiveness is vastly diminished by Siri and Alexa

 

[JD80]

Oh I'm sure they're going to advertise a ton -- I just don't think the average guest pays any attention to what's going on with/at theme parks at all. I remember people going to Disney in the late 90s/early 2000s and not even knowing Animal Kingdom existed.

Maybe. But the late 90s/2000s didn't have any of the social media reach that exists today for marketing.