For anyone following along, I was able to get a substantial reduction in my group contract rate at All Stars for spring break... in line with recent promotions.
Overall attendance is down, and the picture would have been much, much worse if it weren't for offsite guests. Future package and room bookings are abysmal.
You can ignore lack of new rides, lack of capacity, lack of general entertainment because in spite of all of that, people will still go, and most likely have a good time.
What is preventing people from going? Cost.
It's not even the hotel rooms, because people can still find offsite accommodations or even find a deal from Disney off of rack rate. $200-$300 is not bad for a moderate when I sometimes can't find a Hampton Inn in a mid-west state for less than $150 a night.
Disney offering hotel discounts is not going to get people to pull the trigger.
The Dining Plan - because it forces you to buy hoppers or even upgrade it for a Moderate/Value booking - is not going to entice people to pull the trigger.
The cost of a hotel is basically steady over the last 5 years in context of your whole trip. Even if your $120 a night value from 5 years ago is now $220 - for a 5 night stay that's only an extra $500. That's not a lot, and many people can swallow that.
The biggest - BIGGEST - factor in the cost of a WDW vacation is the price of tickets. For a family of 4 or 5 to get a ticket package to go to each park once is going to run them $2000 to $3000 depending on the time of year. JUST the tickets! Compared to 5 years ago, a 4 ticket package is +$1600. Remember when the price of a ticket was cheap going from 5 to 6 tickets? or 6 to 7?
Hotel discounts are more valuable the less people you have in the room. Ticket deals offer more value the more people in your family. You will know when Disney gets desperate when they start offering general ticket deals. That 50% off kid tickets (with the Dining Plan) was a trial balloon.
I suspect we'll see some hotel/ticket packages where they can hide the de-valuing of park admission if all these hotel discounts don't get the job done.