A back-of-the-envelope estimate is that a 1-month refurb of ROTR would cost this much in ILL sales (assuming 11 hour days at $20 per ILL at 30.5 days per month at 1,550 riders/hour capacity):
- $2.6MM per month if 25% of capacity was bought as ILL
- $3.4MM per month at 33% of capacity
- $5.15MM per month at 50% of capacity
Now imagine how many months it'll take to resolve the issue.
For reference, RnRC's refurb earlier this year lasted 3 months and didn't make the ride more reliable.
At 3 months of downtime, you're looking at $7.8MM to $15.5MM in lost ILL.
For a 6-month refurb, which is what I think it'd take, that's $15MM to $30MM in ILL for
just one ride.
My guess is that neither the DHS park VP nor Josh D'Amaro is going to take that kind of revenue hit unless there was absolutely no other option.