Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
From Bloomberg just now: Disney World Visits Decline As Expenses Overwhelm Visitors

I'm quoted in the article. Based on what I know about how these things are fact-checked, Disney did not dispute the claim of a 15% drop in visits.
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Very interesting, if it really is that big. I went back and Googled the post 9/11 situation. https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/wdw-attendance-down-6.12696/ . After the initial hit which was a massive 28%, the aftershocks of quarterly 6% declines feel rosy when compared to a 15% drop.

I'd guess International travelers to WDW are still down, given Europe and especially the UK's economic sluggishness, but that would only explain part of it. I read a non-Disney article yesterday that luxury vacations and experiences are still going gangbusters...cruises, Europe, etc. A childhood friend, who has not typically enjoyed things like this recently posted that they are even going to Rome in 2024. Despite all the lamentations, there seems to be enough people out there with enough money to keep the economic engine churning. So is it Disney's specific market, young families, that is under pressure? Is it conscious decisions by consumers to choose other types of luxury experiences? Out of wanting to do something new after doing Disney during pandemic? Or because of the quality / value of the product? We've talked for awhile about how Disney's goal of going after the premium market without providing a premium experience would come back to bite them... real Europe is better than fakey Europe and all that, and that was before all the scheduling nonsense. Are those chickens finally coming home to roost?

If it really is that bad, I'd expect we'd have seen a lot more cuts like post 9-11, but coming off of pandemic-era cuts it doesn't seem like Disney thinks that option is open to them, and prices continue to rise. Maybe more indicative that the bigger issue is more on the quality side vs affordability? I guess we'll see based on what Disney plusses and commits to building.
 
TheMaxRebo

TheMaxRebo

Well-Known Member
hopemax said:
Very interesting, if it really is that big. I went back and Googled the post 9/11 situation. https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/wdw-attendance-down-6.12696/ . After the initial hit which was a massive 28%, the aftershocks of quarterly 6% declines feel rosy when compared to a 15% drop.

I'd guess International travelers to WDW are still down, given Europe and especially the UK's economic sluggishness, but that would only explain part of it. I read a non-Disney article yesterday that luxury vacations and experiences are still going gangbusters...cruises, Europe, etc. A childhood friend, who has not typically enjoyed things like this recently posted that they are even going to Rome in 2024. Despite all the lamentations, there seems to be enough people out there with enough money to keep the economic engine churning. So is it Disney's specific market, young families, that is under pressure? Is it conscious decisions by consumers to choose other types of luxury experiences? Out of wanting to do something new after doing Disney during pandemic? Or because of the quality / value of the product? We've talked for awhile about how Disney's goal of going after the premium market without providing a premium experience would come back to bite them... real Europe is better than fakey Europe and all that, and that was before all the scheduling nonsense. Are those chickens finally coming home to roost?

If it really is that bad, I'd expect we'd have seen a lot more cuts like post 9-11, but coming off of pandemic-era cuts it doesn't seem like Disney thinks that option is open to them, and prices continue to rise. Maybe more indicative that the bigger issue is more on the quality side vs affordability? I guess we'll see based on what Disney plusses and commits to building.
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If they report out a 15% decline in parks attendance that will be really big and much worse than I was thinking. I could see the hotels and restaurants being down like that much but the parks more than ~5% or so would be pretty big, in a bad way - as at 15% even with G+ and stuff hard to make up that total revenue figure
 
hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
TheMaxRebo said:
If they report out a 15% decline in parks attendance that will be really big and much worse than I was thinking. I could see the hotels and restaurants being down like that much but the parks more than ~5% or so would be pretty big, in a bad way - as at 15% even with G+ and stuff hard to make up that total revenue figure
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Right?! In my mind 5-8% drops would be cause for a "break in case of emergency" scenario. 15% is incomprehensible. And if Len is right, and Disney didn't push back on that number? 40% increase in per person spending can cover a lot of ills (or ILLs :p), but still.
 
Basil of Baker Street

Basil of Baker Street

Well-Known Member
TheMaxRebo said:
If they report out a 15% decline in parks attendance that will be really big and much worse than I was thinking. I could see the hotels and restaurants being down like that much but the parks more than ~5% or so would be pretty big, in a bad way - as at 15% even with G+ and stuff hard to make up that total revenue figure
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Do they ever report labor cuts to offset?
 
Grimley1968

Grimley1968

Well-Known Member
Trauma said:
The scary part is these declines are just the beginning.

Things are going to get much much worse.
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Yep. Their attendance decline to this point has been mostly self-inflicted with their decision making. When the economy tanks, as it just about has to, to end inflation pressure, it’ll be more difficult to get those people to ever come back for the ultimate unnecessary expenditure of discretionary income. It could be a really tough time for WDW, more so than for companies that made better decisions.
 
FeelsSoGoodToBeBad

FeelsSoGoodToBeBad

Well-Known Member
Trauma said:
The scary part is these declines are just the beginning.

Things are going to get much much worse.
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I keep expecting to see more news about a coming recession (us and globally), but either I'm not looking in the right places or a lot of ppl are just not seeing it. (Now, admittedly, those ppl are likely WAY more versed in these things and smarter than I.) I would love to think it isn't coming, but with how much costs for almost everything has gone up in these post-COVID years (and before, honestly), without a corresponding increase in net incomes, I just don't see how consumer spending can maintain at this rate. And beyond that, being Gen X, I'm VERY much looking forward to retirement, which we have actively been saving for over the last 25+ years. That retirement will hopefully include trips to WDW, but if pricing continues to increase as it has over the last 5-10 years, those trips will be few and far between.
 
JD80

JD80

Well-Known Member
Grimley1968 said:
Yep. Their attendance decline to this point has been mostly self-inflicted with their decision making. When the economy tanks, as it just about has to, to end inflation pressure, it’ll be more difficult to get those people to ever come back for the ultimate unnecessary expenditure of discretionary income. It could be a really tough time for WDW, more so than for companies that made better decisions.
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GDP is up at a whopping 4.9% and inflation is holding at 3.7%. Jobs numbers are very strong with 336k in September.

Everything hunky dory? No. People's earnings need to catch up to the new normal.

Consumer spending is still high but the economic tiers that are spending that money are at the upper end.

Economy is not going to tank.
 
hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Especially against a backdrop of recognition of two realities. Housing starts post financial crisis was too restricted. Off-shoring has strategic and supply chain downsides. Construction and manufacturing are the backbone and unlike other times in history are shifting domestically instead of abroad. It won’t have to be a massive shift, and the US and their allies suddenly need to replenish and upgrade their war closets and the raw material production to do so. Lots of things happening that ultimately need humans to produce physical, less discretionary goods. This is a transformative period. There will be friction, but it doesn’t mean recessionary.
 

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