Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[ParentsOf4]

A good guage for where WDW is for price point and general strategy.

If Values have the highest occupancy rate, with the lower occupancy the higher you go on the price point, the entire price structure is in trouble.

If the Deluxe resorts have a higher occupancy rate than the Values , this will validate Bob the Elder's luxury branding strategy. PCGS and PRGS can show a positive result but overall net income may be lower if attendance drops too far.

We shall see....

I still think this is (mostly) the end of post-COVID "revenge vacations". Plus international visitations have not yet rebounded.

Pre-COVID, international visitors accounted for 17-20% of WDW's business, and that hasn't recovered to that level. Despite this, Disney still saw 88-89% hotel occupancy for the first two quarters of the current fiscal year. IMO, the American "revenge vacationers" really filled up WDW hotels.

Now that that peak is over, WDW needs the international visitors to return.

But they might be dealing with their own recessions soon. One is already being reported in Germany, and that could spread to the U.K., WDW's #1 source of European vacationers.

You'd think if Guests were coming from the U.K., Argentina, and Brazil (the top 3), they would have already booked their trips. Could be sky high airfare plus the pending recession is scaring them away.

 

[Nubs70]

I still think this is (mostly) the end of post-COVID "revenge vacations". Plus international visitations have not yet rebounded.

Pre-COVID, international visitors accounted for 17-20% of WDW's business, and that hasn't recovered to that level. Despite this, Disney still saw 88-89% hotel occupancy for the first two quarters of the current fiscal year. IMO, the American "revenge vacationers" really filled up WDW hotels.

Now that that peak is over, WDW needs the international visitors to return.

But they might be dealing with their own recessions soon. One is already being reported in Germany, and that could spread to the U.K., WDW's #1 source of European vacationers.

You'd think if Guests were coming from the U.K., Argentina, and Brazil (the top 3), they would have already booked their trips. Could be sky high airfare plus the pending recession is scaring them away.

I don't think Argentina is a good example. That country is right off the rails fiscally

 

[EricsBiscuit]

I know my previous post was deleted so I will state this more lightly: Disney’s brand isn’t the uniting factor it used to be. The core demographic at WDW is different than DL.

 

[Tha Realest]

For perspective, in the year following 9/11 when WDW attendance plummeted, WDW hotel occupancy bottomed out at 76%, the lowest it's ever been for an entire year. A few years after the Great Recession of 2007-8, WDW hotel occupancy dropped to 79%.

Value Resorts generally are supposed to have higher occupancy than Moderate and Deluxe Resorts. If the most crowded All Star is at 83%, then it must be pretty bad for Memorial Day weekend.

What would those numbers be if those five bands weren’t staying there?

 

[jpeden]

What would those numbers be if those five bands weren’t staying there?

That was my next question - those numbers seem artificially inflated due to school trips. What happens when those aren’t happening this summer? 75% isn’t out of the question.

 

[Andrew25]

No numbers, but international travel is definitely back. I've encountered lots of foreign visitors over the past few weeks now.

One thing that I think people are forgetting is that maybe people are going to the parks less often, but not necessarily skipping them entirely. Almost like it has gotten too expensive to go all of the Orlando parks and people are now picking and choosing which ones to go to/skip?

Disney Springs/Shopping Outlets are still busy any given day, probably more than pre-Covid, so people are definitely in Orlando... just not going to the parks as often as before?

 

[PREMiERdrum]

What would those numbers be if those five bands weren’t staying there?

My group is 18 rooms, by far the smallest I've seen here. I'd wager the others are in the 40-50 neighborhood.

 

[Jrb1979]

No numbers, but international travel is definitely back. I've encountered lots of foreign visitors over the past few weeks now.

One thing that I think people are forgetting is that maybe people are going to the parks less often, but not necessarily skipping them entirely. Almost like it has gotten too expensive to go all of the Orlando parks and people are now picking and choosing which ones to go to/skip?

Disney Springs/Shopping Outlets are still busy any given day, probably more than pre-Covid, so people are definitely in Orlando... just not going to the parks as often as before?

That's not good a thing for Disney cause the parks are where the money is. They may have finally priced themselves out of the middle class.

 

[Andrew25]

That's not good a thing for Disney cause the parks are where the money is. They may have finally priced themselves out of the middle class.

Yep - that's what I'm hinting at. I don't think Disney's ridiculous planning requirements are driving people away as much as it pains me to say that, but pricing is definitely no longer a value for most people.

 

[Jrb1979]

Yep - that's what I'm hinting at. I don't think Disney's ridiculous planning requirements are driving people away as much as it pains me to say that, but pricing is definitely no longer a value for most people.

Too bad Bob hasn't figured that out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This has to be very worrying. Hotel discounts, pass discounts, passholder incentives, all of it geared towards boosting shortfalls in attendance. Anecdotal stories of softened demand from numerous travel agents and posters’ personal experiences in the parks over the last few days confirming this.

What’s the next lever they’ll pull @Sirwalterraleigh ?

“Amazing deal” on annual passes…July of august

That’s assuming no stock market crash…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looking at wait-times for both Disney/Universal, they were actually pretty low for the holiday weekend. Even SeaWorld with their new coaster wasn't too chaotic.

This past week, Na'vi River was posted 55... walked right on. Someone needs to do something about this obvious gross practice.

Walked into rockinrollercoaster and it said 80…more like 25

Said 35 on the way out

 

[Jrb1979]

Walked into rockinrollercoaster and it said 80…more like 25

Said 35 on the way out

If it sells more Genie+ it's worth it to Bob

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If it sells more Genie+ it's worth it to Bob

Don’t think they called the brinks truck for that anyday I was in the parks

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disneyland isn't seeing any significant declines in attendance, and the cruise line is booked solid. If the problems are really focused on Florida/ Walt Disney World, then the obvious answer would be falling international demand and tourism where WDW would be significantly more vulnerable than other Disney resorts.

Which means both things can be true: more Americans are traveling (even to Orlando and Anaheim) but they aren't overcoming the decline in international visitation. Additionally, if the dollar is strong abroad, Americans would be more inclined to spend vacation dollars internationally where vacations are cheaper.

None of this is really a deal breaker for WDW. It's designed to bend and flex with these changes in demand. More than likely, if word gets out that the parks are uncrowded and empty, they will fill back up soon enough.

I marvel at your excellence in not grasping differences between markets/products/clientele pools

 

[seabreezept813]

I don't think it's too early. For the vast majority of people who aren't local, WDW is a vacation that is planned and saved for, not a spur of the moment decision. I think I was in a very small minority who would book and plan a trip with less than a month's notice.

The saved for part has to be a big part of the equation. Post covid salaries did not increase to match inflation while Disney prices have continually exceeded inflation. Your average guest—Disney cost balance has to be way out of whack. I know lots of people who are interested but don’t want to pay up. Americans in general aren’t great with money/budgeting (I know a generalization) and the cost of everything right now is a gut punch. I know several people who make decent salaries ranging from 60-85k in MA so about average who just say that with inflation they’re still doing stuff but they can’t save anymore. A 3% raise can’t keep pace with 11% inflation.

 

[jpeden]

My group is 18 rooms, by far the smallest I've seen here. I'd wager the others are in the 40-50 neighborhood.

So if the bands weren’t there that would be (on the low end) another 178 rooms. Meaning with the current 263 vacancies you mentioned that brings us to 441 rooms when you factor the music groups out.

Now, All Star Music has approx. 2000 rooms (using 263 rooms at 83% occupancy you get 1,943 rooms available so let’s assume the other 57 are out of commission for some reason and un-rentable to be generous to Disney instead of assuming it’s actually a vacant room number of 340 which would be the actual number of vacant rooms if 17% of ASM was vacant assuming the 2000 room count).

So, if the bands were not there, you would have an occupancy rate of 77.3% using the reduced number of 1,943 rooms.

That’s a Great Recession occupancy rate and we aren’t even in a declared recession. They should be worried.

 

[GhostHost1000]

MK felt much busier today than a few days ago. Not overly crowded but not light imo either.

Weather not looking good the next few days with another tropical system

 

[GhostHost1000]

Yep - that's what I'm hinting at. I don't think Disney's ridiculous planning requirements are driving people away as much as it pains me to say that, but pricing is definitely no longer a value for most people.

I think it’s a combination of all the above. It’s just becoming “too much” in many aspects

 

[bcoachable]

Adam Silver is pretty good at scripting the NBA and expanding the business.

And he’s not named Bob…