Inside Out 2

[brideck]

Here's my post about that article with a little commentary added.

Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

It isn't at the bottom anymore Still isn’t toward the top, it’s like #11.

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[brideck]

In the case of Inside out 2, it doesn't matter, Inside out 2 will be profitable.

Agreed. I think I even said that? Just trying to set the goal for future releases to what seems like a more meaningful/accurate target.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I'm aware of where you're thinking is coming from. I found the post I was talking about. Feel free to read and tell me what you think.

Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Now that I've spent this afternoon going over Apes 9 numbers more thoroughly in my Global Command Center, I'm going to have to disagree with that box office assessment. Based on the previous Apes movies, and how poor the legs have been for Apes 9 since it opened a week ago, and with a $160...

forums.wdwmagic.com

There was also a recent Variety article I linked (I'll try to find that, too) where if you do the math, a lot of studios are signalling profitability at around a 2.2x multiplier.

My rule of thumb came from Deadline's previous calculations of profitability.

So... profitability is a B.O. that's between 2.2 to 3.0 times its 'known budget.'

It's all a bit loosey goosey without actual hard data from the studios.

 

[brideck]

My rule of thumb came from Deadline's previous calculations of profitability.

So... profitability is a B.O. that's between 2.2 to 3.0 times its 'known budget.'

It's all a bit loosey goosey without actual hard data from the studios.

Right, which seems to vary by studio, not just randomly. Most studios appear to be near the bottom of that range. Universal, as an example, appears to be more toward the top end of that range.

If profitability is achieved somewhere between 2.2x and 3.0x, then only using 3.0x as your goalpost means you end up calling a lot more things a failure than are in reality. Again, not applicable to this movie in any way.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Agreed. I think I even said that? Just trying to set the goal for future releases to what seems like a more meaningful/accurate target.

What we are trying to do is get in the ball park, both the cost to make and market are educated guesses.

As we saw in 2023, some of the stinkers did not even come close.

 

[brideck]

What we are trying to do is get in the ball park, both the cost to make and market are educated guesses.

Is being off by 50% getting in the ball park, though?

TP's 3x analysis led to the statement that the 2023 slate lost $1.284b in total, but Disney's financial statements indicated something more on the order of $700m. Anyway, this is the wrong thread for all of this. I just wanted to comment and provide links since I know that the Box Office thread is a slough full of landmines and people can easily miss interesting posts over there (either by complete avoidance or due to volume).

 

[Disstevefan1]

Is being off by 50% getting in the ball park, though?

TP's 3x analysis led to the statement that the 2023 slate lost $1.284b in total, but Disney's financial statements indicated something more on the order of $700m. Anyway, this is the wrong thread for all of this. I just wanted to comment and provide links since I know that the Box Office thread is a slough full of landmines and people can easily miss interesting posts over there (either by complete avoidance or due to volume).

I am sticking with my formula.

The true successes make far more than our calculations whatever formula we use.

A movie that makes a little more then whatever we calculate as break even are not considered successes anyway.

 

[Miss Rori]

The true successes make far more than our calculations whatever formula we use.

A movie that makes a little more then whatever we calculate as break even are not considered successes anyway.

This brings to mind something interesting about the promotional efforts - I know there's a Happy Meal promotion, the usual phalanx of tie-in books, and plush toys and figures, but the merchandising push for Inside Out 2 seems waaaaaaay smaller than the one Wish got last Christmas. Assuming the stuff sells well, all that effort seems like it's going to pay off for Disney far more in the long run, and suggests that future films will really dial back their merchandising until it's clear whether the movie is an actual hit or not.

 

[Phroobar]

Ever notice that Riley looks like Andy's mom?

 

[MisterPenguin]

I am sticking with my formula.

The true successes make far more than our calculations whatever formula we use.

A movie that makes a little more then whatever we calculate as break even are not considered successes anyway.

Define "considered success."

Because there's more money to be made after the theatrical run.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Define "considered success."

Because there's more money to be made after the theatrical run.

Just my opinion, TWDC on the inside, knows if they wait long enough they will probably make money on a given movie,

For the outside world, they consider a success a movie that makes A LOT OF MONEY AT THE BOX OFFICE.

Like it or not, the world still uses the box office as THE MEASURING STICK even though its out dated.

TWDC likes to use the box office like a championship belt raising it high over its head.

 

[Prince-1]

Ever notice that Riley looks like Andy's mom?

Hmmm, not at all. You might need to clean your glasses.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Counting advertising expenses for theatrical release and NOT counting ancillary profits really doesn’t offer an accurate depiction of a films performance.

 

[Phroobar]

Just my opinion, TWDC on the inside, knows if they wait long enough they will probably make money on a given movie,

For the outside world, they consider a success a movie that makes A LOT OF MONEY AT THE BOX OFFICE.

Like it or not, the world still uses the box office as THE MEASURING STICK even though its out dated.

TWDC likes to use the box office like a championship belt raising it high over its head.
View attachment 793555

Just like wrestling, it's all fake.

 

[Tom Morrow]

Oh cool, nobody is discussing the film itself but rather how much money it is making.

 

[erasure fan1]

but the merchandising push for Inside Out 2 seems waaaaaaay smaller than the one Wish got last Christmas.

Yea it definitely is around me. And I'm guessing that's consistent most places. Retail took a beating with a lot of the Disney merch the last couple years. So I would guess your Target's, Walmarts and others probably pulled back on ordering. It makes sense, and if the movie continues to be successful, you'll probably see the stores ramp up their selection.

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh cool, nobody is discussing the film itself but rather how much money it is making.

Welcome to this side of the forums where all anyone cares about is the box office return as that appears to be some indication of quality, or something like that.

 

[TalkingHead]

Oh cool, nobody is discussing the film itself but rather how much money it is making.

Anxiety bad. Be yourself. Anything else?

 

[Tom Morrow]

Anxiety bad. Be yourself. Anything else?

If that's the only thing you have to say about the film you must be unfathomably boring.

Like seriously, I can't imagine watching a film this imaginative and creative and then saying "what we really should be discussing, as people with absolutely no stake in this, is its box office revenue"

 

[LittleBuford]

Like seriously, I can't imagine watching a film this imaginative and creative and then saying "what we really should be discussing, as people with absolutely no stake in this, is its box office revenue"

The film threads didn’t used to be this way, but starting with Lightyear and Strange World in 2022, the focus very much shifted to revenue. It’s a very unfortunate change, but I’ve no doubt it’ll last only as long as Disney’s box-office slump.