Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I’m not walking into a casino and betting the ranch on it…for sure
Which is good for them cuz I don’t actually have a ranch
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Indiana Jones 5 Now Pushed Back to 2021
- Thread starter Dead2009
- Start date
Which is good for them cuz I don’t actually have a ranch
Who's making the $65M estimate?
Box Office: ‘Indiana Jones 5’ to Lasso $65 Million Opening — a Decent Start Except for Its Huge $295 Million Budget
'Indiana Jones 5' is targeting at least $65 million from 4,500 North American theaters in its opening weekend.
variety.com
That’s one there is like 15 more.
Should I post them all?
No. The $65 figure came with the supposition of it being lowballed. Wanted to know who's doing the lowballing and if other sources are putting it higher.Box Office: ‘Indiana Jones 5’ to Lasso $65 Million Opening — a Decent Start Except for Its Huge $295 Million Budget
'Indiana Jones 5' is targeting at least $65 million from 4,500 North American theaters in its opening weekend.variety.com
That’s one there is like 15 more.
Should I post them all?
Casper Gutman
Well-Known Member
It's quite likely the studio itself is lowballing - that's pretty standard practice.
Well we will know soon enough.
$65 seems to be the consensus number for Domestic.
As we both know that number can be wrong.
All I know for sure from these articles is that the movie is “gunning” to “whip” up some $$$.
Supreme Leader
Well-Known Member
Nah. This movie is way too long and kind of all over the place.I’m gonna take a wild guess and predict you’ll say it’s “great”
BlakeW39
Well-Known Member
5.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I love fun, especially in summer. But since I'm too old for the Slip-N-Slide now, this will do.
In Disney's last earnings report, the official budget for Indy 5 was $294.7 Million. I'm going to round that up to $295, but I won't round it up to $300 because every penny is going to count on this one. Add on $100 Million for marketing (being conservative) and you get a total budget of $395 Million.
Using the domestic/overseas box office split from Indy 4 in 2008 as a cultural guide, and the most studio optimistic 60/40 split of profits from domestic/overseas box office, it seems that Indy 5 needs to get here at global box offices...
Domestic Box Office $375 Million, 60% of that is $225 to Disney
Overseas Box Office $425 Million, 40% of that is $170 to Disney
Total Global Box Office $800 Million, $395 Million to Disney
So there's my answer: Indy 5 needs to hit $800 Million at the global box office to break even. Who knew math could be fun?
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) - Financial Information
Financial analysis of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.
www.the-numbers.com
BlakeW39
Well-Known Member
I love fun, especially in summer. But since I'm too old for the Slip-N-Slide now, this will do.
In Disney's last earnings report, the official budget for Indy 5 was $294.7 Million. I'm going to round that up to $295, but I won't round it up to $300 because every penny is going to count on this one. Add on $100 Million for marketing (being conservative) and you get a total budget of $395 Million.
Using the domestic/overseas box office split from Indy 4 in 2008 as a cultural guide, and the most studio optimistic 60/40 split of profits from domestic/overseas box office, it seems that Indy 5 needs to get here at global box offices...
Domestic Box Office $375 Million, 60% of that is $225 to Disney
Overseas Box Office $425 Million, 40% of that is $170 to Disney
Total Global Box Office $800 Million, $395 Million to Disney
So there's my answer: Indy 5 needs to hit $800 Million at the global box office to break even. Who knew math could be fun?
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) - Financial Information
Financial analysis of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.
very nice analysis. So 800m to break even... what is Disney hoping for? close to or even over a 1 billion dollar success? frankly I think even my prediction is more likely.
What number does it have to fail to hit to be labeled 'a flop'?
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I would have to assume when Disney approved spending over $300 Million to produce and market this film, that they were expecting at least $1 Billion globally.
Adjusted for inflation, Indy 4 back in 2008 (15 years ago???) grossed 1.14 Billion at the global box office, and $461 Million domestically. It had an opening weekend box office on Memorial Day '08 of $145 Million. Again, adjusted for inflation to 2023 numbers.
That industry cheerleader Variety is saying the hope is that Indy 5's opening weekend makes $65 Million, which is less than half of what Indy 4 made on its opening weekend, is telling. And already ringing alarm bells in Finance, I imagine.
Indiana Jones 4 Crystal Skull Numbers - Adjusted for Inflation
This graph you keep overusing only shows domestic receipts.I would have to assume when Disney approved spending over $300 Million to produce and market this film, that they were expecting at least $1 Billion globally.
Adjusted for inflation, Indy 4 back in 2008 (15 years ago???) grossed 1.14 Billion at the global box office, and $461 Million domestically. It had an opening weekend box office on Memorial Day '08 of $145 Million. Again, adjusted for inflation to 2023 numbers.
That industry cheerleader Variety is saying the hope is that Indy 5's opening weekend makes $65 Million, which is less than half of what Indy 4 made on its opening weekend, is telling. And already ringing alarm bells in Finance, I imagine.
Indiana Jones 4 Crystal Skull Numbers - Adjusted for Inflation
View attachment 727310
You won't be seeing billion dollar results any time soon on it.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
That's the first time I've ever used that Indy 4 data chart.
The overseas and total figures are always found down below the graph, and I conveniently outline them in my yellow sharpie for folks.
If the yellow sharpie is throwing you off and you missed the numbers, the total shown there is that Indy 4 did the following box office in 2008, adjusted for inflation:
Domestic Opening Weekend = $145,743,785
Domestic Box Office = $461,519,038
International Box Office = $683,375,121
Worldwide Box Office = $1,144,984,160
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) - Financial Information
Financial analysis of Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (2008) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.
www.the-numbers.com
Anything under break even.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Crystal Skull made close to $800m, so if they can wrangle $700-800m out of this it would be impressive.
Kinda curious if this plays like a Marvel movie where the people who want to see it race out the first weekend and the second weekend sees a big drop. It’s got holiday weekend timing so that second weekend really might be a sizable dip.
Kinda curious if this plays like a Marvel movie where the people who want to see it race out the first weekend and the second weekend sees a big drop. It’s got holiday weekend timing so that second weekend really might be a sizable dip.
When I said the "graph you keep using," I wasn't specifically referring to the Indy one.
You keep using the domestic BO graph for a whole bunch of movies.
And while they can be used to gauge domestic takes, they are hamstrung by only showing domestic BO and not worldwide.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Just for you, my dear, I will cut the domestic graph out of the information from The Numbers when we are discussing only one movie and only include the hard data. The exception is when we are discussing movie vs. movie, as we likely will do in this thread in a week or two, where the graph often illustrates the differences rather starkly.
I will, however, retain my right to use my yellow sharpie to highlight those box office figures. I'm just a kind person that way.
Here's the Indy 4 data, adjusted for inflation from 2008, without the troubling domestic box office graph attached to it.
doctornick
Well-Known Member
Not that I'm expecting raw numbers anything remotely like that but Top Gun Maverick had a really good opening but more impressive is how it had incredible legs. If Dial of Destiny was a similar type of solid word of mouth crowd pleaser with nostalgia - I do not expect that at all - that would be a precedent for something post-pandemic being able to have a solid box office over many weeks over the summer.