We should get a definitive answer on this one next year with Deadline. Most of the other Disney movies are not write downs this year which puts us in the position of not seeing most of them in either his 'losing' or 'winning' competition.
Strange World and John Carter were both written down 200 million, which I think are basically the worst Disney performers. This one I think will be a ~150 million write down, ultimately. All of these being everything being tallied up post theatrically included. Unless the D+ streaming rights are shockingly out of whack on this one.