Hurricane Milton coming to FL

[Disney Analyst]

As someone who experienced Charley back in 2004 here in Orlando, the best advice is to stop obsessing over every minute adjustment in each update and continue to prepare for the worst. Charley was supposed to only barely graze Orlando until late in the morning when it took a sudden turn toward Punta Gorda and headed straight for Orlando. The eye came right over my house. The tree and roof damage from that storm was hard to describe. For well over a year, when you flew into the airport nearly half the houses in the area had blue tarps on them because of the amount of roof damage and the limited supply shingles.

It will keep changing and one change might look better and then the next one might look worse. It's best to just stay on plan and prepare for the worst and if you don't end up needing it then you have no worries.

Great wisdom. Sometimes the constant updates, especially if they flip towards a bias we seek, can bring ones guard down. Best to focus on the fact that a hurricane is indeed coming, and prepare the best one can given the circumstance. That's what we can control.

 

[Nubs70]

As someone who experienced Charley back in 2004 here in Orlando, the best advice is to stop obsessing over every minute adjustment in each update and continue to prepare for the worst. Charley was supposed to only barely graze Orlando until late in the morning when it took a sudden turn toward Punta Gorda and headed straight for Orlando. The eye came right over my house. The tree and roof damage from that storm was hard to describe. For well over a year, when you flew into the airport nearly half the houses in the area had blue tarps on them because of the amount of roof damage and the limited supply shingles.

It will keep changing and one change might look better and then the next one might look worse. It's best to just stay on plan and prepare for the worst and if you don't end up needing it then you have no worries.

If You Need Tarps

 

[donsullivan]

If You Need Tarps

I'm guessing they will not deliver by tomorrow AM . As a properly prepared Floridian, I already have a tarp that will cover my house with the hope that I'll never need it.

 

[DryerLintFan]

I'm guessing they will not deliver by tomorrow AM . As a properly prepared Floridian, I already have a tarp that will cover my house with the hope that I'll never need it.

As homeowners that took a direct hit from Hurricane Ian, we also have a bunch of tarps

This one isn’t looking good for us though. Fingers crossed we’ll have a roof there to even put a tarp onto

 

[Nubs70]

I'm guessing they will not deliver by tomorrow AM . As a properly prepared Floridian, I already have a tarp that will cover my house with the hope that I'll never need it.

Probably not.

But I did see convoys of linesman and tree service vehicles heading south.

 

[JoeCamel]

I'm guessing they will not deliver by tomorrow AM . As a properly prepared Floridian, I already have a tarp that will cover my house with the hope that I'll never need it.

That is more prepared than I ever was, are you a pest control operator on the side tenting?

 

[donsullivan]

That is more prepared than I ever was, are you a pest control operator on the side tenting?

LOL. My dad was a roofer for decades and he made sure my brother and I both had them to protect our houses when we moved here.

 

[JoeCamel]

Probably not.

But I did see convoys of linesman and tree service vehicles heading south.

Sunday I saw many linemen leaving the "zone" up here headed south on I-81 towards I-75. I think many went from one disaster to the next.....
I did see lots of heavy equipment, dump trucks etc. heading into the zone here so I guess you need a road before you can string the wires.

 

[Comped]

Per all the major meteorologists in the market, latest model data seems to have shifted significantly more south of Orlando and the parks than it had been.

 

[MerlinTheGoat]

Per all the major meteorologists in the market, latest model data seems to have shifted significantly more south of Orlando and the parks than it had been.

It's the local stations that have been discussing it, and the NOAA/NHC track is what they're using. Most of the other models i've seen are still showing entry into Tampa Bay though (and same track through Orlando). Two of the models that were previously showing an entry more south were EURO and ICON, and they've now shifted basically into agreement with the Tampa Bay entry now. People in the area (such as myself) shouldn't get complacent. There's a ton of time for the models to shift, and for the cane to defy projections.

 

[maxairmike]

It's the local stations that have been discussing it, and the NOAA/NHC track is what they're using. Most of the other models i've seen are still showing entry into Tampa Bay though (and same track through Orlando). Two of the models that were previously showing an entry more south were EURO and ICON, and they've now shifted basically into agreement with the Tampa Bay entry now. People in the area (such as myself) shouldn't get complacent. There's a ton of time for the models to shift, and for the cane to defy projections.

HAFS-A has been relatively close with the rapid intensifications of Milton so far, more accurate than the others it seems. It has wind falling off pretty steeply over land thankfully, so hopefully it stays just as accurate in that regard no matter the exact track.

 

[Comped]

It's the local stations that have been discussing it, and the NOAA/NHC track is what they're using. Most of the other models i've seen are still showing entry into Tampa Bay though (and same track through Orlando). Two of the models that were previously showing an entry more south were EURO and ICON, and they've now shifted basically into agreement with the Tampa Bay entry now. People in the area (such as myself) shouldn't get complacent. There's a ton of time for the models to shift, and for the cane to defy projections.

I was just watching channel 9 right now, and they said they'll know more in a half hour once the next update comes if things will shift again officially. But the models seem to be shifting south based on what was being said on all 4 local networks (don't have spectrum so I can't watch News 13 and see what they're saying), at least based on the last images I saw.

 

[SoFloMagic]

Per all the major meteorologists in the market, latest model data seems to have shifted significantly more south of Orlando and the parks than it had been.

Looking much better for Orlando at the moment. 00z models came out two hrs ago and show alignment on a bit of a southern turn (dare I mention Ian) so we'll see if the NHC makes a change at 11

 

[Gottalovepluto]

Anyone know about the energy infrastructure at Disney? Like, does Disney generate and distribute its own power? Do the hotels have backup generators?

 

[DCBaker]

Here's the latest update:

 

[aprilibeth]

Mayor Castor advises that if the path is accurate with the predicted 12 ft storm surge the entire Pinellas county which includes St Petersburg , Clearwater etc will be completely under water. Challenging to do to leave now with reporting that multiple gas stations on interstate and local are already out of gas.

This is not true. There are many areas of Pinellas county along the central ridge that are well above that. Our house is 47 ft elevation and my parents is 76 ft. There are plenty of other reasons to leave like large surrounding trees, Lots of debris still on curbs from Helene and such. It is true that many gas stations are out though.

 

[TalkToEthan]

Looking much better for Orlando at the moment.

……… about as predictable as a ride on Kali Rapids or Bilge Rat Barges where you look safe from a geyser, waterfall or pipe —- for now—-then the raft rotates and you get drenched

 

[Gringrinngghost]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090241
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 86.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Dzilam to Cancun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River,
including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward
to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the
St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the
Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to
Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 86.5 West.  Milton is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northeastward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected overnight
through Wednesday.  A turn toward the east-northeast and east is
expected on Thursday and Friday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the
Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are likely while
Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the
west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 915 mb (27.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft
Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft
Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.  This rainfall brings the
risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
along with moderate to major river flooding.

Additional rainfall amounts of  2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals
around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday
and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the
peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the
east coast of Florida late Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida through Thursday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[SoFloMagic]

……… about as predictable as a ride on Kali Rapids or Bilge Rat Barges where you look safe from a geyser, waterfall or pipe —- for now—-then the raft rotates and you get drenched

Right. I said at the moment.

But kali is pretty predictable. Too short every time

 

[JoeCamel]

Anyone know about the energy infrastructure at Disney? Like, does Disney generate and distribute its own power? Do the hotels have backup generators?

Reedy Creek Energy provides some of their consumption which is on property but I'm sure they planned for an outage and do have generators where needed to provide minimum service.