Hurricane Milton coming to FL

[larryz]

I'm talking about people who aren't in evacuation zones at all. Voluntary evacuation zones should get out as soon as there is a decent likelihood of the storm hitting where they are. I'm talking about people who live 10 miles inland on highish (for Florida) ground that evacuate because they don't want to have to live without power for a few days.

People who don't live in Zones A, B or C are still at risk from wind, tornadoes and tree/debris damage, not to mention flash flooding from torrential rains. Evacuating from 10 miles inland -- or even 20 miles inland -- is prudent and cautious if the conditions around your house dictate.

Especially when the Governor declares a State of Emergency for your county.

If I was doing search and rescue after a storm, I'd sure appreciate seeing "EVAC'D" spray painted on the boarded-up windows instead of having to stop and knock.

 

[DisneyCane]

Cheaper than replacing your house out of your bank account, sure. But after back-to-back storm surges on Florida's western coast, expect flood insurance rates outside of Zone X to skyrocket in the next year or two.

For example, in Aug 2023, in zip codes 33629 and 33606, there were 6,078 policies at a median risk-based cost of $25,477,480.32. Those two zip codes cover the Bayshore Drive and ritzy areas just west of downtown Tampa, and if you've ever driven that stretch of Hillsborough County, you know the property values there are astronomically higher than $25 million.

Now the kicker -- the actual premiums paid were SIGNIFICANTLY less! $7,373,352 or less than a third of what the actual risk-based premium should have been.

There's no possible way to sustain flood insurance at those rates compared to the risks involved. Our favorite mythical family of four from Colorado, along with just about everyone else not living in Flood Zone A, are subsidizing those ridiculously low flood insurance rates and will continue to do so until legislation puts some fiscal teeth in the program.

But I don't want to make this an off-topic discussion of how screwed up flood insurance is -- if you live in 33629 or 33606, get out of town, like yesterday!

According to the FL 511 website, northbound I-75 left shoulder use is authorized for evacuations from Tampa to I-10.

You are 100% correct. In reality, all of those homes in the coastal areas should be built on strong stilts. Not ideal from an aesthetic or accessible standpoint (for people who have mobility challenges) but to protect from storm surge it should be done.

There is no magic wand or pixie dust to solve the insurance cost issue. The only way to keep the costs down is to build in a way that minimizes the risk of significant damage.

 

[Ayla]

The inland winds are not going to be strong enough to tear down houses (except possibly from some isolated tornados that get spawned). The main danger to life and limb is the storm surge.

Look at windy.com and see how quickly the sustained winds become lower speed as you get a few miles inland.

Country Walk is only 9 miles inland and the houses weren't built nearly strong enough to stand up to any significant winds (ironically built by Arvida that was owned by Disney).

74+ mph winds for a long duration can do much more damage than you seem to think. The storm is expected to still be at hurricane strength when it hits the east coast.

 

[tallica]

With the current forecast I can see Disney being open until 5 pm on Wednesday. Got to make that money.

 

[DisneyCane]

74+ mph winds for a long duration can do much more damage than you seem to think. The storm is expected to still be at hurricane strength when it hits the east coast.

I'm well aware about what wind can do. Irma made a mess and caused a palm tree to fall at my house in western Broward County even though the sustained winds were maybe 40 MPH. However, the storm was extremely slow moving and those winds were constant for several hours.

What I'm saying is that those winds are not going to destroy a well constructed house and cause the people inside to be at risk for their life or safety.

People who don't live in Zones A, B or C are still at risk from wind, tornadoes and tree/debris damage, not to mention flash flooding from torrential rains. Evacuating from 10 miles inland -- or even 20 miles inland -- is prudent and cautious if the conditions around your house dictate.

Especially when the Governor declares a State of Emergency for your county.

If I was doing search and rescue after a storm, I'd sure appreciate seeing "EVAC'D" spray painted on the boarded-up windows instead of having to stop and knock.

The people outside of those zones are at risk from those same things every day of the summer from severe thunderstorms. The evacuation zones are defined because those are the locations where people's lives will be at significant risk if they stay there during a hurricane specifically. If your house is not in an evacuation zone, it has been determined that the risk to your life is low.

It's never going to be zero but evacuating based on a 0.01% risk and causing somebody at 80% risk to not be able to get out is not worth it.

 

[John park hopper]

SC requires homes to be built above the 100yr highest flood level. My son's house (just built) is on 10' block filled with rebar and concrete. all connected by a continuous slab. Hurricane brackets on all roof trusses and stud walls, shingles rated for 130 mph winds

 

[SoFloMagic]

With the current forecast I can see Disney being open until 5 pm on Wednesday. Got to make that money.

Probably phased if they do that. No AK weds, HS closes at 2, epcot 3, MK 5 or something like that

Edit - but I think it's more likely all parks are closed and Disney springs is open til 3 or something

 

[larryz]

74+ mph winds for a long duration can do much more damage than you seem to think. The storm is expected to still be at hurricane strength when it hits the east coast.

Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties are the first and sixth most densely populated counties in Florida, and they'll be taking the brunt of Milton if the storm doesn't swing north or south. A lot of the housing in Pinellas is not capable of withstanding major storms like Milton.

The people outside of those zones are at risk from those same things every day of the summer from severe thunderstorms.

Did you just compare summer thunderstorms to a hurricane?

 

[celluloid]

With the current forecast I can see Disney being open until 5 pm on Wednesday. Got to make that money.

That would be incredibly unwise of them since many would not get home until after 8PM when the storm is there.

 

[DisneyCane]

Did you just compare summer thunderstorms to a hurricane?

I said that severe thunderstorms create the same risks to houses outside of designated flood zones as hurricanes do for things like flash flooding, strong winds and possible tornados. Obviously, they are much shorter in duration and effect a smaller area.

My point is that the reason evacuation zones exist is the unique threat of storm surge (and wind to manufactured homes) from a hurricane. Evacuation isn't required for the other risks in homes that were built to new enough codes.

 

[Andrew25]

I have to say, the lack of notice yesterday from UOR/WDW is quite unsettling. I understand the need to keep open, but we all know the parks are going to be hit in some capacity for some time now. They need to give their employees time to head out from work and do final prep.

 

[durangojim]

One of my closest friends who I went to med school with is a cardiologist working at HCA Florida Largo Hospital. He's sent his family to Orlando but is the "lock in cardiologist" for the next 3 days. Looking at images of the facility it looks like it's primarily glass windows all around. I'm assuming that it's made to withstand hurricane winds? The hospital is only a mile off shore so needless to say I'm concerned about his safety.

 

[celluloid]

I have to say, the lack of notice yesterday from UOR/WDW is quite unsettling. I understand the need to keep open, but we all know the parks are going to be hit in some capacity for some time now. They need to give their employees time to head out from work and do final prep.

Yes. It is incredibly dissapointing. Especially odd for SWO since it is not only a very outdoor park but also BGT made their call. They likely could/should have said Weds and Thurs as we monitor. BGT gets the extra day being Tampa and prep.

Realistically...we know HHN is not going to happen either...so it is wild and unsettling as you said.

 

[Ayla]

I have to say, the lack of notice yesterday from UOR/WDW is quite unsettling. I understand the need to keep open, but we all know the parks are going to be hit in some capacity for some time now. They need to give their employees time to head out from work and do final prep.

Still no update as of 9am eastern.

 

[celluloid]

One of my closest friends who I went to med school with is a cardiologist working at HCA Florida Largo Hospital. He's sent his family to Orlando but is the "lock in cardiologist" for the next 3 days. Looking at images of the facility it looks like it's primarily glass windows all around. I'm assuming that it's made to withstand hurricane winds? The hospital is only a mile off shore so needless to say I'm concerned about his safety.

Hospitals and Public Schools are about the best building shelters you can get. Press buildings are another.

 

[Andrew25]

Yes. It is incredibly dissapointing. Especially odd for SWO since it is not only a very outdoor park but also BGT made their call. They likely could/should have said Weds and Thurs as we monitor. BGT gets the extra day being Tampa and prep.

Realistically...we know HHN is not going to happen either...so it is wild and unsettling as you said.

I completely understand the reasoning behind closing, but why not just be upfront and say "Based on current forecast track, we are expecting to close our parks on blank dates."

Worst case scenario, if you are afraid of losing business, you cut staffing that day to reduce operating costs. Nobody in their right mind would enjoy a day at IOA if its raining all day, everything but 3 attractions remain open during torrential rain. No locals will be at F&W dining in the rain. I just don't get it.

 

[DisneyCane]

One of my closest friends who I went to med school with is a cardiologist working at HCA Florida Largo Hospital. He's sent his family to Orlando but is the "lock in cardiologist" for the next 3 days. Looking at images of the facility it looks like it's primarily glass windows all around. I'm assuming that it's made to withstand hurricane winds? The hospital is only a mile off shore so needless to say I'm concerned about his safety.

If it wasn't built to withstand the expected winds they would be evacuating the patients and closing down, not locking staff in to treat people.

 

[Master Yoda]

SC requires homes to be built above the 100yr highest flood level. My son's house (just built) is on 10' block filled with rebar and concrete. all connected by a continuous slab. Hurricane brackets on all roof trusses and stud walls, shingles rated for 130 mph winds

Florida does something similar.

Most coastal and low-lying homes will be built in a similar fashion to your son's house but FBC does allow the use of breakaway walls for the first level.

The FBC is fairly robust in terms of wind mitigation. Everything must be clipped from the roof all the way through the foundation. Wind speed will vary based on location. The Florida Keys are at 180 mph with north Florida being mostly run at 120-130 mph. The wind speed requirement in the area this storm will be hitting is between 140-160 mph.

This is great for new construction but does nothing for houses that were built 50 years or more ago.

 

[gerarar]

I was supposed to be landing at MCO on Wednesday morning.

But with the news of MCO ceasing operations soon, still awaiting for my flight to be officially cancelled by the airline so I can rebook a later date (or maybe cancel/refund). So far nothing, and Frontier customer support says that there is no further update yet, as if the flight is still a go-ahead on Wednesday..

Not too worried about my resort reservation (All Stars Music), despite booking with a third party site. There was no availability on WDW's website when I booked 2 months ago, so that was my only option. Can deal with that at a later time or just take the loss if I lose a couple days..

Original trip is Weds 10/9 thru Mon 10/14.
Hoping for the best for everyone though! Would be a lie to say I'm not a bit stressed (more than G+ and VQs!); never been through cancellations/changes to my plans like this before!

Just an update.

Frontier finally officially cancelled my original flight for Wednesday morning around 10:30pm Monday night.

The rebook options were for Thursday, due to land at MCO ~7pm. There was an earlier flight in the morning, but that looks to be also gone/cancelled, so maybe they think/know MCO will still be closed Thurs morning.

I could've refunded for airline credit, which I wasn't really interested in. Refund back to my CC required a call apparently and up to 2 weeks.

Considering this flight was only ~$55, taking the refund and rebooting with another airline ($300+) isn't as ideal. I also have a separate flight leaving MCO to BOS for a separate work engagement, so I do need to somehow be in Orlando before the following Monday.

Hoping for the best for everyone there!

 

[Touchdown]

On a personal note, I’m happy to report I’m writing this from the air. My flight took off and I’m on my way north. I wish all of you stuck down there the best, I suggest if you can you get the heck out of there.