Hurricane Milton coming to FL 10/9

D

DarkMetroid567

Well-Known Member
Lilofan said:
Why would anyone want to extend their stay? If this predicted monster is for real, leave by Sunday / Monday via - airport , train, car .
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Because a lot of people are going to follow the “Hurricane = Empty 😍” and “WDW Resorts are the best place to be during a hurricane” rhetoric. That’s usually fine, but this time…
 
IanDLBZF

IanDLBZF

Well-Known Member
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11pm advisory track from NHC. Storm appears to make landfall as a Cat 2, possibly Cat 3 near Tampa.
 
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C

Comped

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
I expect parks to close early Tuesday (5-6pm) no night shows, no MNSHP.
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Well at least I won't get woken by the train whistle on Wednesday! First world problems I know. No but seriously, I would expect no nighttme entertainment or parties for at least 2 days, maybe 3 depending on the severity of the cleanup if this hits as bad as they're saying.

(How ironic that this all comes to a head on the same day I bought a 2004 CM hurricane commemorative pin at a local garage sale. Wish they still produced those for the major storms or seasons.)
 
V

V_L_Raptor

Well-Known Member
Brian said:
Another track shift northward. Also looks like a slowdown over the gulf leading to a Wednesday late afternoon/early evening landfall. Not good in terms of intensification potential.
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The big question mark is whether it pulls in much dry air from the cold front coming down from the north. Denis Phillips spent quite a bit of time with this during the 7PM DPL Saturday night.
 
Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
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Code: 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 060845
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida late today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h).  An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of
days, followed by a faster northeastward motion.  On the forecast
track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals
up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast
of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today.  These swells are expected
to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by
early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 
Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
John park hopper said:
Are they still calling for a M storm to hit the Tampa area? Sister in law lives within 20 minutes of WDW
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The forecast does not have at the moment a clear consensus on strength at landfall. This is from the NHC Forecast discussion and from what I've seen too in models as well.

Code: 
The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and
dry air entrainment after that time.  Third, the proximity of a
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly.  The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the
storm gets stronger.  Milton is expected to weaken and start
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.

Once we have the real data coming in today, the first flight has taken off and is about half way there, the forecasts will start to lock in.

Watch this space.
 
DryerLintFan

DryerLintFan

Premium Member
Gringrinngghost said:
The forecast does not have at the moment a clear consensus on strength at landfall. This is from the NHC Forecast discussion and from what I've seen too in models as well.

Code: 
The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and
dry air entrainment after that time.  Third, the proximity of a
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly.  The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the
storm gets stronger.  Milton is expected to weaken and start
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.

Once we have the real data coming in today, the first flight has taken off and is about half way there, the forecasts will start to lock in.

Watch this space.
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Lol at “the residents should closely monitor”. They’re monitoring 😬 these areas aren’t even rebuild from the last hurricane on this path inward 😭
 
T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
One important thing to note is today is the first day the hurricane hunter planes will be flying over Milton. By the end of the day today the forecast cone will be narrower and timing will be more locked. This is probably the last day any major changes will occur to the forecast.
 
C

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
One important thing to note is today is the first day the hurricane hunter planes will be flying over Milton. By the end of the day today the forecast cone will be narrower and timing will be more locked. This is probably the last day any major changes will occur to the forecast.
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I am thinking a shift town a bit more to more SWFL/Fort Myers is likely.
 

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