Hurricane Irma

[SpoiledBlueMilk]

Disney is already making preparations backstage looking for loose debris and items to store. That's the start. Expect to hear more impacts in the next couple days.

My concern is SWL and TSL construction. A lot of buildings in the "nearly structurally framed" stage that could be damaged by the storm.

 

[monothingie]

WDWMagic won't let me print the words that just popped in my mind, but most of you can figure them out. I sure hope they are wrong. Waiting to start hearing forecasts from Hurricane Center in Miami.

Latest 12Z European is an odd one, very far south and then it almost makes a U turn to come north and east of previous runs. One major thing with this run, that has not been seen in previous is that cuts through the middle of Cuba causing it to weaken significantly. Again this is only a single model, but the European has trended more south. I wouldn't be surprised if if the next couple of models runs it gives up on the idea of Florida landfall and keeps moving into the gulf.

The Canadian model (which is usually a terrible model) seems like it has been ahead of the curve of the European. For Irma, the European seems to mimic where the Canadian is two days prior. Canadian is now showing a Gulf trajectory into the panhandle and away from both coasts.

 

[SpoiledBlueMilk]

But don't wait until Friday to make plans, just saying. Plan now. Gas up the car now. Think of evacuation routes now. Pack a suitcase now. Everything @The Mom said was on target.

Yep - Like other natural disasters, you should heed the government's warning. If you are told to leave, do so. If you stay, prepare. You don't want to be one of those people who didn't prepare and become a problem for first responders.

 

[21stamps]

What to do is pretty simple.

If you are told to leave, leave.

If not, hunker down where you are and have the supplies ready for could a week long camping camping trip with no electricity or running water.

This is great to see someone say this. Please do not take up hotel rooms and highway space if you are not in an evacuation zone. Just plan accordingly.

Many people are already being evacuated, and many more will be ordered to evacuate in the next 2 days, unless something changes... but I doubt it will change enough for many areas in SoFla to not issue an evac.

 

[Nickels5]

Yes. And the advice should be: stay away. Very simple. People are putting their vacations above the lives of residents and, frankly, that isn't cool.

No one HAS to come to WDW in the next two weeks. Valid questions might be 'how can I get a refund?' or 'will they move my reservation to November?' Not 'this natural disaster is really inconvenient, I booked Le Ceiller six months ago for lunch with the Dining Plan and what if EPCOT is closed that day?'

.

You do understand that for many people their vacations get locked in through their employers months in advance, and for many that cant simply push it back two months? Theres no guarantee this will even hit the Orlando area so telling people to stay away at this moment is wrong. People should continue to keep an eye on this and treat it very seriously and we will all have more information come Friday. Please get off your high horse. Thanks!

 

[LAKid53]

As @WDW1974 stated, don't come to Florida unless you absolutely have to...like you're a first responder, utility line guy or such.

Listen to those of us Floridians who have been through this before. It's no picnic listening to the crack of trees, praying one doesn't fall and split your house in two. Or the roof being ripped off your house. It's no fun in the heat of September without A.C.. Or food. Or water. Or gas.

This isn't a little wind and rain. This storm can flatten several of the Keys. It took months for Homestead to recover after Andrew.

 

[LAKid53]

My concern is SWL and TSL construction. A lot of buildings in the "nearly structurally framed" stage that could be damaged by the storm.

Right now, that's the least of Florida's and WDW worry. They're insured.

 

[LAKid53]

Latest 12Z European is an odd one, very far south and then it almost makes a U turn to come north and east of previous runs. One major thing with this run, that has not been seen in previous is that cuts through the middle of Cuba causing it to weaken significantly. Again this is only a single model, but the European has trended more south. I wouldn't be surprised if if the next couple of models runs it gives up on the idea of Florida landfall and keeps moving into the gulf.

The Canadian model (which is usually a terrible model) seems like it has been ahead of the curve of the European. For Irma, the European seems to mimic where the Canadian is two days prior. Canadian is now showing a Gulf trajectory into the panhandle and away from both coasts.

Oh Holy !!! Not what I wanted to hear....

 

[21stamps]

As @WDW1974 stated, don't come to Florida unless you absolutely have to...like you're a first responder, utility line guy or such.

Listen to those of us Floridians who have been through this before. It's no picnic listening to the crack of trees, praying one doesn't fall and split your house in two. Or the roof being ripped off your house. It's no fun in the heat of September without A.C.. Or food. Or water. Or gas.

This isn't a little wind and rain. This storm can flatten several of the Keys. It took months for Homestead to recover after Andrew.

Years.

It took more than a year for SoFla to recover from the constant pounding of the 04-05 Hurricanes, and none were as strong as Andrew.

Luckily structures have changed since then, but yes- the Keys will most likely be leveled if Irma hits at it's current strength.

 

[Monorail_Orange]

I just moved back to Orlando and am casually freaking out. There were never any hurricanes when I lived here before, and I'm also from the north so I literally have no idea what to do.

From someone who's been through multiple hurricanes in SE Louisiana: First, stop freaking out, even casually . Go ahead and get prepared. They don't know where exactly this thing is going yet, but proper preparation prevents poor performance.

What should you be prepared for? Several days to weeks without electrical service. Quite possibly a similar period of time without running water. Generators are all fine and dandy, but you must also have fuel to operate them. Flashlights and batteries to help get you through the nights. Also a battery or dynamo powered radio to help keep you informed if/when the power goes out. Don't forget that without power, internet and cable services will also go down. Cell towers generally only have power back-ups to keep them running for about 8 hrs without external power. The main wind field and rain are not the only dangers in tropical systems, either. Tropical systems over land also tend to spin up small tornadoes, so you should seek out the best room in your home to shelter in. Ideally, this room should have no exterior walls, but sometimes you have to simply settle for one with no windows.

 

[DryerLintFan]

Precisely. Kate in 1985 wasn't headed straight for Tallahassee. But shortly around noon she shifted, the state sent us all home around 2pm and around 6 pm I lost power. The eye came ashore around Quincy, which is 20 miles west of here. Kate was a weak Category 2 storm when she hit the Thursday before Thanksgiving.

My fear if Irma heads my way? No city water for a week. Hence the huge pack of baby wipes I got at Costco..if they're good for a baby's bottom, I can do sponge baths with them.

Any leftover canned goods will be donated to the local food bank. The bed of my pickup truck now serves as my hurricane pantry. Costco was a zoo - will probably settle down the next day or two and then pick back up starting Friday.

Baby wipes is how we bathed a lot in the military. They work fine but be prepared to go through a LOT of them.

Also, any jugs you have in your house, or two liter bottles, or buckets, or plastic easter eggs, whatever. Fill those full of water from the tap line and fill your bathtub. It might not be delicious filtered water through your fridge, but water is water.

 

[LAKid53]

Baby wipes is how we bathed a lot in the military. They work fine but be prepared to go through a LOT of them.

Also, any jugs you have in your house, or two liter bottles, or buckets, or plastic easter eggs, whatever. Fill those full of water from the tap line and fill your bathtub. It might not be delicious filtered water through your fridge, but water is water.

Already know that...

 

[IanDLBZF]

Also have a way to get life-saving weather warnings (such as those for tornadoes, extreme winds, or flash floods), such as a NOAA Weather Radio with battery backup and a alarm feature, especially if warnings are issued during the overnight hours.
In my opinion, having a Weather Radio alert you to an approaching tornado, especially during the middle of the night, can save your life (and has saved many lives).
You may want to also have a battery operated radio or TV set, and make sure to charge your cell phone and have a way to charge it if the power should go out.

 

[DryerLintFan]

Already know that...

Was just adding on to your great advice

 

[21stamps]

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/0...-must-evacuate-you-cannot-afford-to-stay/amp/

“For the Florida Keys, if you were to create the worst case scenario that is what we are looking at,” said Monroe Co. Emergency Operations Center Director Martin Senterfitt.

The grim outlook prompted Senterfitt to order mandatory evacuations.

“We’re emphatically telling people you must evacuate, you can not afford to stay on an island with a Category 5 hurricane coming at you. Most of this island chain is only three to five feet above sea level. With the surges we’re expecting this is not the place to be,” said Senterfitt.

 

[LAKid53]

Was just adding on to your great advice

Thanks. Brilliant minds think alike.

And to all the great advice already given. Go by the bank and pull out a couple of hundred dollars in cash - in 10s and 20s. Vendors may not be able or want to take cards.

Btw, any skilled tradesmen, like carpenters, will be in high demand after the storm. Florida experienced a large construction boom after 2004/2005.

 

[insaneshadow]

Well, this weekend's going to suck for us in South Florida. I just hope we get skimmed and avoid most of the damaging winds. Oh well, just got to hunker down and continue preparing.

 

[Monorail_Orange]

Thanks. Brilliant minds think alike.

And to all the great advice already given. Go by the bank and pull out a couple of hundred dollars in cash - in 10s and 20s. Vendors may not be able or want to take cards.

Btw, any skilled tradesmen, like carpenters, will be in high demand after the storm. Florida experienced a large construction boom after 2004/2005.

Also, to add on: most people get canned goods, but forget that with no electricity, no electric can opener. Make sure you have a hand-powered one, or pop-top cans instead.

 

[LAKid53]

Well, this weekend's going to suck for us in South Florida. I just hope we get skimmed and avoid most of the damaging winds. Oh well, just got to hunker down and continue preparing.

But that means we up in North Florida may see a near direct hit....

 

[LAKid53]

Also, to add on: most people get canned goods, but forget that with no electricity, no electric can opener. Make sure you have a hand-powered one, or pop-top cans instead.

And if you're a dinosaur, like me, with a land line, a CORDED phone....