Hurricane Irma

[monothingie]

If the Governor decides on mandatory evacuations, WDW will close and no CMs will be riding out the storm. I can assure you of this as I was part of 3 ride-out crews for MK.

A mandatory evacuation so far inland is unlikely, not unprecedented, but unlikely. It is also not practical because, you literally have thousands of people staying on property that are incapable of self evacuating due to lack of transportation. Disney most likely has an emergency plan by which deals with just this scenario and identifies key positions and resources that will be required to maintain guest safety. Any cm staying would most likely a minimal compliment whose responsibility is keeping the lodging locations as functional as possible.

 

[DisneyCane]

I do hope Irma decides to go back to sea at some point. Our trip starts on 9/12 with a flight leaving at 7am and I'm extremely worried that it (and most likely our trip) will be cancelled due to this storm. We don't have traveller's insurance either..

I hope everything works out in the end..

Unless the storm comes across Central Florida from East to west or west to east and does catestrophic damage around Orlando, I think your trip will be fine. If landfall is in Florida it will be late Saturday or on Sunday. The current predictions have it either making landfall way South of Orlando or to the northwest if it hits Florida. Obviously things can change but none of the tracks indicate a likely path across the middle of the state.

 

[donsullivan]

Evacuations of Orlando vicinity? The mandatory evacuation areas are typically the coastline where storm surge is an issue. Inland is batten down and stay indoors normally.

Correct. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where central Florida would be evacuated. Typically, the folks from the coasts head here during coastal evacuations from the hurricane evacuation zones on the coasts. Ironically, during Charley in 2004 there were lots of people who evacuated the Tampa area (the original expected landfall location) to Orlando. The it changed path and came right to Orlando so they got hit with it anyway.

 

[21stamps]

Correct. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where central Florida would be evacuated. Typically, the folks from the coasts head here during coastal evacuations from the hurricane evacuation zones on the coasts. Ironically, during Charley in 2004 there were lots of people who evacuated the Tampa area (the original expected landfall location) to Orlando. The it changed path and came right to Orlando so they got hit with it anyway.

Yep. That's what I was trying to explain earlier, this happens often, because of the unpredictability.

I can't imagine Orlando under a mandatory evac. Goal is to have only necessary evacs.. if more people stayed in place then the people who do need to get out would be in a much better position. Overreactions are what causes the crazy highway backups.. so much better to prepare and bunker down if you are inland and in a safe structure.

 

[HorseFly]

TWDC hurricane policy for reference for those traveling or curious.

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/faq/hurricane-policy/

We are supposed to arrive Friday. It's my understanding that hurricane warnings go out 36 hours in advance, so not likely to get one before our arrival if the hurricane is predicted for Sunday/Monday time frame. Does that mean we are going to have to make a decision on Wednesday to fit into their normal 2 - 30 day out refund policy? I don't expect that the path is going to be that certain on Wednesday to know for sure what to do. I have a small child and don't think I want to come in a hurricane but I also don't want to cancel when the path is still uncertain. I'm just not sure what to do! So stressful already. I hope I wake up tomorrow and it has made a major shift.

 

[SorcererMC]

Some more friendly advice - Disney's communications may be hit or miss in emergency circumstances, depending on the hotel. For example, during and after Hurricane Matthew, some guests did not know when or if it was ok to leave their rooms or when restaurants were re-opening, some got voicemails, some got paper flyers under the door, app alerts re: closings, etc.

And that their messaging did not advise what guests should or should not do in terms of emergency preparedness, so guests should plan accordingly for their families' needs. CMs may or may not have the most accurate information as circumstances change.
If CMs can't address minor problems, check Disney's policies or take it up with Guest Relations or over e-mail at a later time.

 

[WDW1974]

Some friendly advice from someone who has experienced major hurricanes at home (Andrew) and at WDW (Wilma and Matthew).

If you have a trip planned for this week or next, I'd call and reschedule. All models are showing this thing (a massive storm that is growing) taking aim at FL, with most showing SoFla getting hit and then it riding up the state. Despite what you have heard, no one here has seen a storm of this caliber effect such a wide swath or a storm of this magnitude hitting O-Town and WDW. You do NOT want to be there. No kewl "I was at WDW during ..." crap. The parks will close. The CMs will be overwhelmed. And if it is as bad as it could be, you're actually just adding to the misery by forcing people to work to try and keep you busy and happy in a disaster.

There certainly is no need to panic. But if you think riding it out will be fun, think again, and if you think you can decide what to do on Friday or Saturday, you are very mistaken.

WDW will survive this. But a major hit or even sideswipe will cause issues that could last for days or weeks. This doesn't look like the type of system Matthew was. I am sure Disney will bend over backwards to rebook people ... or issue refunds.

 

[invader]

Born and raised and Florida and have seen my fair share of storms.

Please watch the projections the next 2 days. If it looks to be heading towards Central Florida and you aren't already in the state or coming to volunteer PLEASE stay where you are.

 

[celluloid]

Some friendly advice from someone who has experienced major hurricanes at home (Andrew) and at WDW (Wilma and Matthew).

If you have a trip planned for this week or next, I'd call and reschedule. All models are showing this thing (a massive storm that is growing) taking aim at FL, with most showing SoFla getting hit and then it riding up the state. Despite what you have heard, no one here has seen a storm of this caliber effect such a wide swath or a storm of this magnitude hitting O-Town and WDW. You do NOT want to be there. No kewl "I was at WDW during ..." crap. The parks will close. The CMs will be overwhelmed. And if it is as bad as it could be, you're actually just adding to the misery by forcing people to work to try and keep you busy and happy in a disaster.

There certainly is no need to panic. But if you think riding it out will be fun, think again, and if you think you can decide what to do on Friday or Saturday, you are very mistaken.

WDW will survive this. But a major hit or even sideswipe will cause issues that could last for days or weeks. This doesn't look like the type of system Matthew was. I am sure Disney will bend over backwards to rebook people ... or issue refunds.

Excellent post. Also this is what traveler's insurance us for. They will acvomadate to an extent but yeah...thus is very likely going to be Charley bad or worse.

 

[tribbleorlfl]

Some friendly advice from someone who has experienced major hurricanes at home (Andrew) and at WDW (Wilma and Matthew).

If you have a trip planned for this week or next, I'd call and reschedule. All models are showing this thing (a massive storm that is growing) taking aim at FL, with most showing SoFla getting hit and then it riding up the state. Despite what you have heard, no one here has seen a storm of this caliber effect such a wide swath or a storm of this magnitude hitting O-Town and WDW. You do NOT want to be there. No kewl "I was at WDW during ..." crap. The parks will close. The CMs will be overwhelmed. And if it is as bad as it could be, you're actually just adding to the misery by forcing people to work to try and keep you busy and happy in a disaster.

There certainly is no need to panic. But if you think riding it out will be fun, think again, and if you think you can decide what to do on Friday or Saturday, you are very mistaken.

WDW will survive this. But a major hit or even sideswipe will cause issues that could last for days or weeks. This doesn't look like the type of system Matthew was. I am sure Disney will bend over backwards to rebook people ... or issue refunds.

Thanks for reiterating this, Spirit. I don't get the whole "WDW is one of the safest places to be" and " I'd rather be there than anywhere else" arguments. Parks likely will be closed, transportation will be shut down, no pools, no restaurants. You'll be stuck in your room, and depending on the resort, that's probably not going to be much fun and won't have the space to store supplies.

Plus, another thing to consider, the more guests that are on property during a storm, the more CM's that are needed to ensure their safety. I still remember working at UO during Charley. That morning, they called each ee asking if they could come in to help close up units and prepare for the storm. My wife was pregnant at the time and our place wasn't ready, but they enticed me to come in saying it would only be a partial day but would be paid for a full shift + holiday pay. Needed the money with the baby on the way.

When I got to work, I found out the park was actually open for guests and our unit open for service (when it was supposed to be closed so we could move all the tables and outside service items into the kitchen). I couldn't believe it, there was a major hurricane coming and there were all of these guests enjoying the park as if nothing was happening.

While we ended up closing early, we had to put away the food and clean the kitchen before we could start the storm prep that was supposed to be over already.

I still remember walking through Marvel Island (because the shuttle to wardrobe was shut down) and a family was literally running past me and laughing, "Hurry up, we have to get on Spiderman before they shut down the park!" like it was a fun game. To this day, thinking about that family makes my blood boil.

I get trips to WDW are expensive, take a long time to plan and it's disappointing when you have to cancel your plans, but seriously, there are things far more important than your vacation.

 

[Herbie]

...

 

[kadybat]

00z runs for GFS (US) and CMC (Canadian) have been published. GFS has been trending towards the center of the state after a run through the "bathwater" that is the hot water between the islands and Cuba, which 00z continues to do. This would be an 891 landfall - very dangerous - in the south tip of Florida as early as Sunday, and end up bringing hurricane winds to every airport in the state before leaving on Tuesday. It's... not a great run.

Meanwhile, to give you an idea of how much these things vary, CMC was the first to call a trend southward toward Florida when all the other forecasts were still pointing to the Carolinas or even higher (GFS was hitting New York a couple days ago). Now, the 00z prediction shows Irma making landfall in the Cuban highlands - which, given what highlands do to hurricanes, scraps the hell out of it and makes it significantly less dangerous, perhaps lowering it to a Category 3 or even a 2 from the 4 it's at now. It then glides along the Florida gulf coast and makes landfall in Tallahassee at a significantly more reasonable 978mb on Tuesday.

Now, you may be wondering, what's that little guy behind Irma? That's a tropical wave that could end up being a tropical depression or storm named Jose. Jose's likely future is being pushed out to sea by Irma, but it's wayyyy too far in advance to make any calls about him. In any case, if you're the praying type, pray for the CMC to become a trend. We'll know more when the EURO 00z models are published, and we'll have definitive answers by Wednesday/Thursday. The closer this thing trends to Cuba, the less likely it is to be a Florida monster.

 

[kadybat]

I realize I didn't say something important, so I'll reply here - the point of my post was to illustrate some of the variables at play. These models are not gospel and both of them imply some sort of impact to Florida. The CMC model is simply a less acute impact, which is by far the best case scenario we're seeing right now.

If you live in the state, be prepared no matter what. There's still a state of emergency, I still think that's the right call. Have a kit ready.

If you have a trip that week, as I do - keep an eye on this. Pack a poncho. Start looking at potential alternate dates and listen for hurricane warnings. Follow @mco on Twitter and keep in touch with your airline for news on potential airport impacts.

 

[kadybat]

And yet more good news. The latest GEFS ensemble - an aggregated collection of 21 different US forecasters - seems to be trending with CMC rather than GFS, bringing the storm west. The farther west this trends, the more of Florida gets spared, and the more likely central Florida gets away from the brunt of this beast.

 

[Sped2424]

Hearing it's a cat 5 now on twitter....oh my.

 

[kadybat]

Hearing it's a cat 5 now on twitter....oh my.

That's the big variable here. If it gets scrapped up by the Leeward Islands, by Puerto Rico, by the Dominican Republic, by Cuba... that'll kill its intensity before it gets to Florida. If you're gonna worry about anyone, worry about folks in those islands, as they're more likely to get hit by a Cat 5 than Florida at this point.

 

[FigmentForver96]

And yet more good news. The latest GEFS ensemble - an aggregated collection of 21 different US forecasters - seems to be trending with CMC rather than GFS, bringing the storm west. The farther west this trends, the more of Florida gets spared, and the more likely central Florida gets away from the brunt of this beast.

If that storm enters the gulf, then it is not good news for anyone. This is a monster. I am not trying to stir up fear with anyone. I've been through my share of storms. I remember Ivan and Charley well and Opal was a monster that tore up my home town. This is a bad situation and the only good one would be it going on the Atlantic away from land.

 

[FigmentForver96]

Hearing it's a cat 5 now on twitter....oh my.

Not a good situation

 

[Sped2424]

That's the big variable here. If it gets scrapped up by the Leeward Islands, by Puerto Rico, by the Dominican Republic, by Cuba... that'll kill its intensity before it gets to Florida. If you're gonna worry about anyone, worry about folks in those islands, as they're more likely to get hit by a Cat 5 than Florida at this point.

I have family in puerto rico trust me when I say I am worried on all fronts. That being said the islands won't do much damage given it's projected to glide between them on open water gaining more strength. It's still too early but things are not looking well.

 

[kadybat]

If that storm enters the gulf, then it is not good news for anyone. This is a monster. I am not trying to stir up fear with anyone. I've been through my share of storms. I remember Ivan and Charley well and Opal was a monster that tore up my home town. This is a bad situation and the only good one would be it going on the Atlantic away from land.

I suppose I should have said good news in the context of earlier trends. A low pressure storm ripping through all of Florida is significantly more dangerous and would assuredly lead to greater loss of life and property than a higher pressure storm peeling off into the gulf east of Florida and making landfall in Tallahassee. The trends have made it clear that the door to an out-to-sea solution closes rapidly by Wednesday as the Western Atlantic Ridge pushes Irma to the south.

None of this is good. It all sucks, and everyone in hurricane-prone regions should be prepared now. This is simply being realistic - it's why Governor Scott called for a state of emergency. Any good news we get from here-on-out is in the context of less of Florida being impacted by this storm. Storms like Charley, Ivan, and Andrew are one thing. If the GFS has its way? This is worse than all of them. For the benefit of the greater peninsula, in lieu of realistic models that portray an out-to-sea escape, I'm left hoping for solutions that pull it west.

I have family in puerto rico trust me when I say I am worried on all fronts. That being said the islands won't do much damage given it's projected to glide between them on open water gaining more strength. It's still too early but things are not looking well.

Best of luck to your family - I'll hope for them here as well. I hope they're able to prepare safely over the next couple days. Godspeed.