Hurricane Irma

[sudokujesus]

I



It's seems the Euro has been all over the place and seems like it isn't handling the low pressure trough leaving the north-east responsible for the turn north. The Euro seems far too south to make the radical turn it is suggesting. With regards to the GFS I really don't have a problem with the pressure forecast given how powerful Irma has become and will continue to be with the warm SST and low shear conditions it is forecasted to pass through.

Of course we'll know for sure in a two das for sure...

I tend to agree, and the Euro has been initializing about 30mb too weak for the last few runs... which I suspect could throw off the track a good bit.

With that being said, the Euro has been performing pretty well which is why I think the NHC has mostly sided with the Euro up to this point in their official track, though with the GFS being *so* far east now, one would think the NHC may move the official track a little bit back to the east.

 

[JohnD]

Just spoke with my daughter. She's a banker at one of the SunTrust branches in Tallahassee. Her branch is running out of cash.

Wow. Just got $100 from a credit union after getting off work. But who knows later in the week?

 

[monothingie]

I tend to agree, and the Euro has been initializing about 30mb too weak for the last few runs... which I suspect could throw off the track a good bit.

With that being said, the Euro has been performing pretty well which is why I think the NHC has mostly sided with the Euro up to this point in their official track, though with the GFS being *so* far east now, one would think the NHC may move the official track a little bit back to the east.

For me the major thing is consistency. In the past two days the GFS has been pretty solid on an easterly solution. The Euro has been all over the place. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes with a gulf solution over the next couple of runs.

 

[LAKid53]

Too bad Dr. Krishnamurti has retired. He was pretty spot on with Ivan

 

[21stamps]

Could you do the same for any friends you have who are in the Key West Area?

I have done this for all of my friends in Key West. Texted or called all of them and put it on FB yesterday. I only have one spare bedroom, but we can use my camping air mattresses if need be.. the problem is- there are not any flights out left. Drive time could be several days- I'm still trying to convince them to just drive or book a flight farther north.

 

[DisneyJoe]

I've seen this on their website as well. However, it says that they won't give me any cancellation or change fees. Okay. But what about the $3000 that I paid for the actual trip. I know they aren't going to charge me anything to move my reservation to another week, but their website doesn't explicitly say I'll be getting a 100% refund... though that is how I read it.

If you cancel, you will get 100% of the Disney portion returned, except for Disney travel insurance, which is non-refundable.

 

[21stamps]

Just make sure that if your car is in a garage, the garage door is up. In your effort to survive the hurricane, you don't want to die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

Ha ha yes for sure! I lived in a condo those years, we had a multi level garage, with plenty of fresh air.

 

[sudokujesus]

If you cancel, you will get 100% of the Disney portion returned, except for Disney travel insurance, which is non-refundable.

I own and run a travel agency focusing on Disney, we've been dealing with this all day.

And just to clarify, that goes for people like myself who do NOT have travel insurance, correct? (I booked a package through Disney's website)

 

[21stamps]

And just to clarify, that goes for people like myself who do NOT have travel insurance, correct? (I booked a package through Disney's website)

Check your credit card benefits, you may have travelers insurance through that card automatically.

 

[JoeCamel]

I'm 40 miles inland...and at the top of a hill. My issues are those you've stated. But those in the Keys, coastal areas, barrier islands and areas prone to flooding need to evacuate inland. Lord knows what the storm surge will be with this monster. Imagine if it comes in at Tampa Bay....

At 22 ft above sea level and 7 miles from the bay I would rather not imagine it. I did that for Charlie. Please GFS come true.

 

[DisneyJoe]

And just to clarify, that goes for people like myself who do NOT have travel insurance, correct? (I booked a package through Disney's website)

Yes. I just needed to clarify that you would not be refunded the cost of travel insurance IF you had purchased it. If you didn't purchase insurance, all Disney money would be refunded.

Airfare can be a different story.

 

[Clamman73]

Well, that's awfully scary looking. The northern Leeward Islands are going to have a rough day tomorrow.

Barbuda...omg

 

[JoeCamel]

So i live pretty close to magic kingdom and aside from Matthew who mercifully decided to turn away, this is my first hurricane. I'm super terrified. I'm used to like snowstorms that lose steam as they travel across a state. not a giant swirling vortex of doom that only weakens eventually. Ironically, I have a trip planned to Disney for my birthday next week (more specifically to celebrate my birthday at food and wine for the first time ever since F+W started so early this year). Mother nature has a hell of a sense of humor.

If you have that option do a belated birthday and go the week after. You know F&W will be on for months and months and months and months and months........
Lay in supplies, see that you have a safe place to be and learn the words "hunker down". It is 6 - 12 hours of wondering if you will die but surprisingly few do and central Florida is one of the safest places to be (except for Montana).

 

[ford91exploder]

Respectful suggestion: Get one of the Coleman "Dual Fuel" models. The tank included with it will allow you to run it on Coleman/Camp Fuel (white gas) OR straight up 87 octane (or higher) from a gas pump. Also, if you spend a few pennies more, you can get the kit that will allow you run your same stove on propane. That kit will run on the small bottles, and you can get an adapter (or a "distribution tree") that will let you hook up to a 5lb (gas grill size) or 20lb (RV bottle) propane cylinder.

Get this NOW worst case return it unopened

 

[FigmentForver96]

New advisory in. Models seemed to shift a bit to the east. Most still cut through the state still but a few go up the east coast. Right now they are saying it could make landfall as a 4 so still a monster.

 

[JenniferS]

Get this NOW worst case return it unopened

Or, keep it for the next one.

 

[21stamps]

I'm 40 miles inland...and at the top of a hill. My issues are those you've stated. But those in the Keys, coastal areas, barrier islands and areas prone to flooding need to evacuate inland. Lord knows what the storm surge will be with this monster. Imagine if it comes in at Tampa Bay....

Yes.. people in these areas, all along the coast, need the hotels more than anyone in the middle of the state, on higher elevation, or even more inland. (And mobile homes)

Not to mention the people who live here-

 

[LAKid53]

If you have that option do a belated birthday and go the week after. You know F&W will be on for months and months and months and months and months........
Lay in supplies, see that you have a safe place to be and learn the words "hunker down". It is 6 - 12 hours of wondering if you will die but surprisingly few do and central Florida is one of the safest places to be (except for Montana.

By laying in supplies, @dreamfinder912, Joe means WATER, not beer... Non perishables like bread, crackers, peanut butter, tuna fish, cold cereal. Have a manual can opener. Buy lots of battery chargers for your phone. Get a portable radio, buy plenty of batteries for it - this will be one source of info for you. Make sure you keep everything plugged in and charging until you lose power. Dint use your phone for unnecessary things like YouTube videos. If the local utility company has an app that allows notification of power outages, download it before the storm approaches. Sign up for text messages alerts from local authorities. Get laundry done ASAP. Think about a place within your apartment to shelter if weather gets really, really bad, like tornados - think an interior room with no windows - like a bathroom or closet. Get your supplies and gas up your car NOW. It can be scary, but as long as you're prepared, you'll be okay.

 

[LAKid53]

Yes.. people in these areas, all along the coast, need the hotels more than anyone in the middle of the state, on higher elevation, or even more inland. (And mobile homes)
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Not to mention the people who live here-

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Lived in Miami. Those hotels not only provide shelter for people, but also bear the brunt of the wind....

 

[BubbaQuest]

Just a heads up that as mentioned in the Sentinel article, Universal just refunded our park tickets/hotel for this weekend after giving them a call.

Surprisingly Alaska Airlines *still* has not implemented a refund plan yet.