Rumor Hollywood insiders say there's growing tension at Disney as CEO Bob Chapek chafes at Bob Iger's 'long goodbye'

[Tha Realest]

If you don't like the cuts now, just wait for a recession.

I actually don’t care about the cuts. I care about the out of control price increases.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I actually don’t care about the cuts. I care about the out of control price increases.

I care about DME. I actually really like the EMH change. And I think I hate Genie+, but I haven't decided yet.

ILL is defensible only for the rides that "need" it, which was Rise for about a year, Rat for about a month, and now Guardians (and then Tron).

 

[pdude81]

I actually don’t care about the cuts. I care about the out of control price increases.

Sure but if they kept building rides and expanding parks the prices wouldn't seem so crazy. A recession might stop increases for a bit, but it's not likely to add park hours and could shutter or slow the little they're doing right now.

 

[Tha Realest]

Sure but if they kept building rides and expanding parks the prices wouldn't seem so crazy. A recession might stop increases for a bit, but it's not likely to add park hours and could shutter or slow the little they're doing right now.

I get that - but what are they doing now? There hasn't been an announcement, let alone a groundbreaking, of anything beyond Guardians or Tron.

 

[pdude81]

I get that - but what are they doing now? There hasn't been an announcement, let alone a groundbreaking, of anything beyond Guardians or Tron.

Journey of Water, Fantasmic dates, restaurant capacity/menus. There's always something that could be on the chopping block. What's more likely is that they pull back things they were getting ready to announce.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I am what Disney should consider an ideal customer, but they've lost me after 16 years of 2-3 visits a year, about a week at a time, on property. Being priced out and refusing to pay ridiculous prices are two different things and I'm definitely the latter.

We are a mix of both, we have DL keys and have visited one weekend a month for the lasts decade, plus we’d spend a week or two in WDW every year and have spent a week+ in DLParis 3 times since 2015.

With the new reservation system hassle we’re down to a DL weekend every other month, we’d like to do WDW but can’t justify the flight prices so it’s keeping us away this year, and Paris is probably a year away if not more.

In 2018 we figured we spent about $25k in DL, $10k in WDW, and $10k in DLP… this year Disney will likely get $12k from us via fewer DL trips. That didn’t all go to Disney (flights, etc) but a huge chunk did. We still make just as much, it’s just hard to justify spending it at Disney when we can go places like Hawaii or an Alaskan cruise for a fraction of the price.

I actually don’t care about the cuts. I care about the out of control price increases.

We’re the opposite, we don’t care about the price, we are really struggling to see the value with all the cuts though.

 

[Trauma]

I’d like to hear everyone’s take on Universal.

Let’s say the new park opens to rave reviews with 3 or more world class E tickets.

It will also introduce Nintendo to go along side Potter as incredibly popular IP’s.

Will Universal still be considered just a mosquito buzzing in Disney’s ear?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’d like to hear everyone’s take on Universal.

Let’s say the new park opens to rave reviews with 3 or more world class E tickets.

It will also introduce Nintendo to go along side Potter as incredibly popular IP’s.

Will Universal still be considered just a mosquito buzzing in Disney’s ear?

We have zero interest in Nintendo but we’ll still check it out once it opens.

As for Universal as a whole it’s gone from being a one day side trip while spending a week in WDW to us seriously considering Universal based trips, with a day or two of side trips to WDW. The more we compare hotels the more appealing it becomes. Flight prices make them hard to justify right now also though.

 

[Ayla]

We are a mix of both, we have DL keys and have visited one weekend a month for the lasts decade, plus we’d spend a week or two in WDW every year and have spent a week+ in DLParis 3 times since 2015.

With the new reservation system hassle we’re down to a DL weekend every other month, we’d like to do WDW but can’t justify the flight prices so it’s keeping us away this year, and Paris is probably a year away if not more.

In 2018 we figured we spent about $25k in DL, $10k in WDW, and $10k in DLP… this year Disney will likely get $12k from us via fewer DLDo trips. That didn’t all go to Disney (flights, etc) but a huge chunk did. We still make just as much, it’s just hard to justify spending it at Disney when we can go places like Hawaii or an Alaskan cruise for a fraction of the price.



We’re the opposite, we don’t care about the price, we are really struggling to see the value with all the cuts though.

Do Hawaii and Alaska instead. Seriously. They are both gorgeous and you won't regret it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I’d like to hear everyone’s take on Universal.

Let’s say the new park opens to rave reviews with 3 or more world class E tickets.

It will also introduce Nintendo to go along side Potter as incredibly popular IP’s.

Will Universal still be considered just a mosquito buzzing in Disney’s ear?

WDW is dealing with more people than they can handle. They set up a reservation system to limit overcrowding.

It would be helpful to WDW if the two Uni theme parks in Orlando could draw even more guests away. If they could do it with three, that'd be great for WDW, because they can still charge more for less people showing up.

The last complete quarter was WDW's biggest revenue haul for any quarter ever. And that including capped park attendance and a bunch of closed-down sales points (restaurants).

A successful EU is in the best interests of both Universal and Disney for both their bottom lines.

It's good for guests with less crowding, more options, and *maybe* more incentive to outdo each other.

 

[DisneyDelirious]

I’d like to hear everyone’s take on Universal.

Let’s say the new park opens to rave reviews with 3 or more world class E tickets.

It will also introduce Nintendo to go along side Potter as incredibly popular IP’s.

Will Universal still be considered just a mosquito buzzing in Disney’s ear?

I’ve been going to WDW since I was a kid and Spaceship Earth was an uncovered frame. My kids now 18 and a month from 20 grew up there. Disney isn’t out pricing my family. With the kids grown we have more discretionary income. What they are doing is revealing less value for my $ to then they used to. We did a trip to UOR last year and stayed on site. Wife loved Volcano Bay. I thought it had great theming but am not a huge water park/ sit and soak up sun kind of guy. Parks had low caliber theming to me excluding Harry Potter themed areas and thrill rides and their subject matter (movie base) largely don’t resonate with us like Disney does. When we are done with Disney, we will be done with Orlando more than likely. Our dollars will go to other adventures and destinations. I would
probably keep spending and going to Disney they increases for quite some time, but my wife won’t. She won’t be drawn in still by nostalgia like I will and we will go somewhere else eventually.

 

[Trauma]

WDW is dealing with more people than they can handle. They set up a reservation system to limit overcrowding.

It would be helpful to WDW if the two Uni theme parks in Orlando could draw even more guests away. If they could do it with three, that'd be great for WDW, because they can still charge more for less people showing up.

The last complete quarter was WDW's biggest revenue haul for any quarter ever. And that including capped park attendance and a bunch of closed-down sales points (restaurants).

A successful EU is in the best interests of both Universal and Disney for both their bottom lines.

It's good for guests with less crowding, more options, and *maybe* more incentive to outdo each other.

I don’t even know where to begin with this.

 

[Tha Realest]

WDW is dealing with more people than they can handle. They set up a reservation system to limit overcrowding.

I think that's partially true. I think it's been kept in place so the bean counters can staff the minimal amount of people necessary to match the expected demand for the day. For those same reasons, I don't think its a coincidence the park hopping is also time restricted (to match shift changes)

 

[MisterPenguin]

I don’t even know where to begin with this.

 

[TikibirdLand]

I haven’t checked the share price in about a week…

Damn…they’re getting crushed. And the leads today were all recession watch/warning. That’s inevitable…it’s just a question of time?

“Good news! Annual passes and DVC incentives on the horizon!”

Well, they're almost flat compared to a month ago. So, there's that...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

WDW is dealing with more people than they can handle. They set up a reservation system to limit overcrowding.

It would be helpful to WDW if the two Uni theme parks in Orlando could draw even more guests away. If they could do it with three, that'd be great for WDW, because they can still charge more for less people showing up.

The last complete quarter was WDW's biggest revenue haul for any quarter ever. And that including capped park attendance and a bunch of closed-down sales points (restaurants).

A successful EU is in the best interests of both Universal and Disney for both their bottom lines.

It's good for guests with less crowding, more options, and *maybe* more incentive to outdo each other.

Nobody knows what the cap is…or their overhead outlay.

Math involves considering ALL the numbers. Not Disney’s PR statements designed for fan sites

The revenue haul is 1000% due to hefty price increases that until recently some have denied. But we’re growing as an audience. It has nothing to do with price of Canadian frak gas that’s shipped out of the US overseas or a tanker backup off the port of Long Beach

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, they're almost flat compared to a month ago. So, there's that...

as Cap says: these can cut both ways.

Is $132 a share good for Disney? No - it’s GREAT. It’s not a “Tesla” kinda stock. Bob can say that.

But Wall Street has changed too. And it was $200.19 on 3/9/21. According to them…they’re “losing their shirts”
It doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. Their rules.

So is a 34% drop Gonna be “understandable”?

I don’t have to tell you the answer

 

[MisterPenguin]

Nobody knows what the cap is…or their overhead outlay.

Math involves considering ALL the numbers. Not Disney’s PR statements designed for fan sites

The revenue haul is 1000% due to hefty price increases that until recently some have denied. But we’re growing as an audience. It has nothing to do with price of Canadian frak gas that’s shipped out of the US overseas or a tanker backup off the port of Long Beach

I dare you to make less sense!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I dare you to make less sense!

You wild boy! Challenge accepted

 

[Trauma]

as Cap says: these can cut both ways.

Is $132 a share good for Disney? No - it’s GREAT. It’s not a “Tesla” kinda stock. Bob can say that.

But Wall Street has changed too. And it was $200.19 on 3/9/21. According to them…they’re “losing their shirts”
It doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. Their rules.

So is a 34% drop Gonna be “understandable”?

I don’t have to tell you the answer

Earnings are May 10th. I expect share price to bounce between $128-$144 until we get closer.

I expect the share price to rise into earnings and a better than expected report. Should see a gap up the next day. What will be telling is if the big money sells into strength or if the DIS is able to maintain momentum.

I have had a sizable short position since $187.10

I plan on covering that position by Friday.