Rumor Hollywood insiders say there's growing tension at Disney as CEO Bob Chapek chafes at Bob Iger's 'long goodbye'

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Earnings are May 10th. I expect share price to bounce between $128-$144 until we get closer.

I expect the share price to rise into earnings and a better than expected report. Should see a gap up the next day. What will be telling is if the big money sells into strength or if the DIS is able to maintain momentum.

I have had a sizable short position since $187.10

I plan on covering that position by Friday.

It probably took a shot today because the lead story was recession bells going off. Bad day for toots and blow on the street.

But the pattern for the last six months has been lose $10-12 dollars over a week and gain $9-$12 back the next. So slow slide has net decline from the $150-$160 it hovered near in the fall.

Earnings - RECORD earnings as pengy said - hasn’t really mattered much.

Stocks are not a numbers game anymore…such silly 20th century thinking

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

So - the Disney nightmare....
THOUSANDS of DVC Owners, staying "on property", and using the Daily Shuttle that no one has offered yet to run them over to Universal Studios, and back .

HEY MEARS! Business Opportunity .

 

[CAV]

Or " I bought a 9.6% stake in this company because I don't like how they moderate tweets"?

I am what Disney should consider an ideal customer, but they've lost me after 16 years of 2-3 visits a year, about a week at a time, on property. Being priced out and refusing to pay ridiculous prices are two different things and I'm definitely the latter.

Exactly. We live an hour and a half away. We probably spend $15-20k a year. I just can't do,it anymore.

 

[bcoachable]

WDW is dealing with more people than they can handle. They set up a reservation system to limit overcrowding.

It would be helpful to WDW if the two Uni theme parks in Orlando could draw even more guests away. If they could do it with three, that'd be great for WDW, because they can still charge more for less people showing up.

The last complete quarter was WDW's biggest revenue haul for any quarter ever. And that including capped park attendance and a bunch of closed-down sales points (restaurants).

A successful EU is in the best interests of both Universal and Disney for both their bottom lines.

It's good for guests with less crowding, more options, and *maybe* more incentive to outdo each other.

Does the cost of building new rides at your own (not fully fleshed out) parks or even possibly opening up a 5th gate, in order to keep your “guests” on property just cost too much to ever see the return? I can’t imagine them being ok with Universal taking dollars out of their pocket when all it takes is adding a few rides to spread out crowds to keep the money at home.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Does the cost of building new rides at your own (not fully fleshed out) parks or even possibly opening up a 5th gate, in order to keep your “guests” on property just cost too much to ever see the return? I can’t imagine them being ok with Universal taking dollars out of their pocket when all it takes is adding a few rides to spread out crowds to keep the money at home.

Well now we get into park cannibalization…which is a 5,000 post thread.

I don’t think they’ll ever open another traditional park in Orlando. The numbers just don’t make sense and likely never will.

Reinvestment is more ambiguous

What they care about is market share and per guest spending. Everything else is throwaway to management.

They’re obviously 1000% content to let universal open their second campus and see what happens? Which could only lead to two things on the investment front:
1. Nothing
2. A “crash” building program where they’re behind to try and catch up in market share…like 2013-present. Which of course took too long, cost a fortune, and under delivered in a big way.

 

[Indy_UK]

Im surprised people think the Epic Universe is really going to move the needle that much?

They're 2 existing parks could do with fleshing out a lot more first

 

[pdude81]

Im surprised people think the Epic Universe is really going to move the needle that much?

They're 2 existing parks could do with fleshing out a lot more first

New and shiny is always a thing. And after adding 2 major rides to IoA and a brand new park including a big draw property (SMW), they start competing for a family's whole vacation instead of being a day or two add on to a Disney trip.

I'm more of a pixie duster and I still think Universal is building more of what I'm interested in for the future.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Im surprised people think the Epic Universe is really going to move the needle that much?

They're 2 existing parks could do with fleshing out a lot more first

I think they find themselves exactly where Disney was in about 1990.

If you look at what URO could have built by 2028? It could be eerily similar.

 

[EPCOTCenterLover]

I think they find themselves exactly where Disney was in about 1990.

If you look at what URO could have built by 2028? It could be eerily similar.

I hope they do get there!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I hope they do get there!

…it’s fantastic for Disney fans.

It might be our “obi-wan”

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Well now we get into park cannibalization…which is a 5,000 post thread.

It boils down pretty simply.

Most Americans will never take longer than a 7-night vacation at a time because that's how long they can be away from work. As long as Walt Disney World has "enough" to keep you busy for a week, adding beyond that will have extremely low marginal returns.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

New and shiny is always a thing. And after adding 2 major rides to IoA and a brand new park including a big draw property (SMW), they start competing for a family's whole vacation instead of being a day or two add on to a Disney trip.

I'm more of a pixie duster and I still think Universal is building more of what I'm interested in for the future.

I have about 30 Nintendo Switch games on my shelf but I just don't see it as an appealing property for a themed entertainment environment. Nintendo games are about play, they're not about story. I want to play Mario games, but I don't have any great desire to visit the Mushroom Kingdom. It's too plastic, like ToonTown or the Simpsons land.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It boils down pretty simply.

Most Americans will never take longer than a 7-night vacation at a time because that's how long they can be away from work. As long as Walt Disney World has "enough" to keep you busy for a week, adding beyond that will have extremely low marginal returns.

That is exactly what was learned - internally - when DAK opened.

Had they known/realized that prior…I’m not entirely sure it would have been built.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have about 30 Nintendo Switch games on my shelf but I just don't see it as an appealing property for a themed entertainment environment. Nintendo games are about play, they're not about story. I want to play Mario games, but I don't have any great desire to visit the Mushroom Kingdom. It's too plastic, like ToonTown or the Simpsons land.

It’s going to be incredibly popular with segments Disney can’t serve…similar to potter.

 

[pdude81]

I have about 30 Nintendo Switch games on my shelf but I just don't see it as an appealing property for a themed entertainment environment. Nintendo games are about play, they're not about story. I want to play Mario games, but I don't have any great desire to visit the Mushroom Kingdom. It's too plastic, like ToonTown or the Simpsons land.

I can understand that take. My sense is that adults who grew up with Mario and the various cartoons will be very interested to go visit Super Mario World, and from there it'll be about whether it's fun or not and how good the rides are. I watched a video of the Mario Kart ride and I was really not very impressed. My son, however, thought it looked incredible and cared more about the interactive elements of the ride than any sort of realism. I think this property can satisfy both if it looks awesome. And if they actually execute on the interactive stuff with Power Up bands like they've been doing in Japan I think that is a useful tie in.

I think it could end up looking terrible in a decade if not well cared for or staffed like Simpson's land does, but my take here is that this is going to be pretty big. We'll see if I'm right or wrong on that.

And for people who don't care so much about Nintendo, the areas reportedly themed to Universal Monsters and How to Train Your Dragon have a lot of promise. We'll see how well the execution is and if they go for immersion like WWoHP or lighter theming.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It’s going to be incredibly popular with segments Disney can’t serve…similar to potter.

Could be, I don't know. Just don't think it translates very well.

I love Nintendo games and I could not care less about Avatar. But I'd rather *visit* Pandora than Super Mario World.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Could be, I don't know. Just don't think it translates very well.

I love Nintendo games and I could not care less about Avatar. But I'd rather *visit* Pandora than Super Mario World.

Get ready…

When Disney promoted their Star Wars ambiguity complex as “the greatest thing ever..”…but it isn’t…

My hunch is this is the opposite

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I can understand that take. My sense is that adults who grew up with Mario and the various cartoons will be very interested to go visit Super Mario World, and from there it'll be about whether it's fun or not and how good the rides are. I watched a video of the Mario Kart ride and I was really not very impressed. My son, however, thought it looked incredible and cared more about the interactive elements of the ride than any sort of realism. I think this property can satisfy both if it looks awesome. And if they actually execute on the interactive stuff with Power Up bands like they've been doing in Japan I think that is a useful tie in.

I think it could end up looking terrible in a decade if not well cared for or staffed like Simpson's land does, but my take here is that this is going to be pretty big. We'll see if I'm right or wrong on that.

And for people who don't care so much about Nintendo, the areas reportedly themed to Universal Monsters and How to Train Your Dragon have a lot of promise. We'll see how well the execution is and if they go for immersion like WWoHP or lighter theming.

Well to be fair…the Simpsons is the most tired thing in pop culture history.

That area is up for renewal in 2026 I Believe? I bet Comcast shuts it down and “declines” to renew.

That is PRIME real estate

 

[mightynine]

I can tell you straight up that once Super Nintendo World is open, Universal will get a visit from me for the first time since I was a kid.

Well to be fair…the Simpsons is the most tired thing in pop culture history.

That area is up for renewal in 2026 I Believe? I bet Comcast shuts it down and “declines” to renew.

That is PRIME real estate

Comcast shuts it down and builds their version of Avengers Campus on the East Coast?

 

[pdude81]

Well to be fair…the Simpsons is the most tired thing in pop culture history.

That area is up for renewal in 2026 I Believe? I bet Comcast shuts it down and “declines” to renew.

That is PRIME real estate

Yeah, once they deliver on Epic Universe and the Shrek->Minions conversion it would be wise to revise that and MIB while they're at it.