HKDL gets new castle, frozen land and marvel land.

[Sir_Cliff]

I mean it depends on how much HK’s border blocks the GBA because purely by catchment area HK arguably had the larger catchment area but of course if a lot of them are blocked then purely looking at HK as a city Shanghai has a larger catchment area

Does anyone know what the initial expectations were for HKDL attendance? My memory is that it was quite low, at around the 5-6 million range. Maybe the expectation was that it would grow to closer to 10 million over time, but my impression was that they were at least initially seeing this as more of a smaller regional park but that ended up not being a viable model as people naturally compared it to other Disney parks. If the park was built with modest expectations for attendance based on the local market, that would go a long way to explaining why it struggles to match the attendance of parks built for much larger markets.

Maybe I am wrong about all this, though!

 

[marni1971]

Does anyone know what the initial expectations were for HKDL attendance? My memory is that it was quite low, at around the 5-6 million range. Maybe the expectation was that it would grow to closer to 10 million over time, but my impression was that they were at least initially seeing this as more of a smaller regional park but that ended up not being a viable model as people naturally compared it to other Disney parks. If the park was built with modest expectations for attendance based on the local market, that would go a long way to explaining why it struggles to match the attendance of parks built for much larger markets.

Maybe I am wrong about all this, though!

Random google says 5.6 million

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Random google says 5.6 million

If the park was built with that in mind, I would think the attendance around 6-7million in better years isn't that bad.

 

[Supersnow84]

If the park was built with that in mind, I would think the attendance around 6-7million in better years isn't that bad.

The problem seems to be some combination of

1) Disney did the numbers wrong and they miscalculated with a small park and a small capacity would generate a small consistent profit rather than a consistent loss (they budgeted for 5.6 it hit 5.2 in the first year then stayed below the target till the expansion

2) Shanghai and China as a wider market opened to western companies faster than Disney expected so by the time they realised they could do Shanghai they were too deep in Hong Kong so they just dumped a cheap copy to move to focusing on Shanghai which bred resentment amongst HK people who felt like they were just given a pity prize

3) as HK has improved Disney has had to claw back the goodwill they ruined when they opened the park in its initial state, every expansion is really good but Disney has to hard sell they aren’t the waste of time park they were on opening, Shanghai meanwhile sold a complete (mostly) experience from day 1 so expansion is just holding guests they already have goodwill with. If HK opened day 1 in its current state I’d probably say it would be rivalling Shanghai numbers but it’s still clawing back goodwill and fighting ocean park for LegCo’s ultimately limited budget

 

[LameBoi]

The problem seems to be some combination of

1) Disney did the numbers wrong and they miscalculated with a small park and a small capacity would generate a small consistent profit rather than a consistent loss (they budgeted for 5.6 it hit 5.2 in the first year then stayed below the target till the expansion

2) Shanghai and China as a wider market opened to western companies faster than Disney expected so by the time they realised they could do Shanghai they were too deep in Hong Kong so they just dumped a cheap copy to move to focusing on Shanghai which bred resentment amongst HK people who felt like they were just given a pity prize

3) as HK has improved Disney has had to claw back the goodwill they ruined when they opened the park in its initial state, every expansion is really good but Disney has to hard sell they aren’t the waste of time park they were on opening, Shanghai meanwhile sold a complete (mostly) experience from day 1 so expansion is just holding guests they already have goodwill with. If HK opened day 1 in its current state I’d probably say it would be rivalling Shanghai numbers but it’s still clawing back goodwill and fighting ocean park for LegCo’s ultimately limited budget

Just in terms of numbers, HK Disney Resort cost $3.5 billion to build a new island from what was the sea from scratch and put a park with 2 hotels on top of that reclaimed land. The park itself was about $700 million. Shanghai Disney cost $5.5 billion on land that was already existing and in a place where construction standards are more relaxed with lower wages compared to HK. There definitely was and still might be resentment from locals.

 

[LameBoi]

My two cents on this were that Hong Kongers were expecting HKDL to be something similar to Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea (which opened 4 years earlier in 2001). Hong Kongers travel to Tokyo a lot, many going for day trips so many have experienced Tokyo Disney Resort. So when HKDL opened with only 4 lands, and a handful of attractions, locals expecting Tokyo quality were greatly turned off and many basically never returned.

I read an article about HK Disneyland being initially pitched to the public with 6 full lands: Main St. USA, Adventureland, Frontierland, Toontown, Fantasyland, Tomorrowland. Attractions would’ve included Jungle Cruise, jungle roller coaster (probably themed to Tarzan), Haunted Mansion, Big Thunder, river raft rapids, Space Mountain, and the usual Fantasyland dark rides, and more (I’m pretty sure either Pirates or Indie was part of the plan also). So being promised a park full of E-tickets and unique attractions to the getting a park with 1 (Space Mountain) is pretty underwhelming.

 

[Supersnow84]

This also though is why I think the park is doing better now than a lot of people are giving it credit for

Namely after the Covid debacle hit HK hard Disney handled it far far better than any of its direct competitors (namely ocean park and whichever chimelong is in guanzhaou I can’t remember) because it kept on all its cast members with pay and the wider Disney company helped with some aspects of HK’s pandemic response.

I think this might finally help the park shake off the “betrayal” of the launch day offerings that especially if annual passes are anything to go by but I also don’t have a good pulse on the HK population, I’m just repeating things others have told me on this front

 

[LameBoi]

This also though is why I think the park is doing better now than a lot of people are giving it credit for

Namely after the Covid debacle hit HK hard Disney handled it far far better than any of its direct competitors (namely ocean park and whichever chimelong is in guanzhaou I can’t remember) because it kept on all its cast members with pay and the wider Disney company helped with some aspects of HK’s pandemic response.

I think this might finally help the park shake off the “betrayal” of the launch day offerings that especially if annual passes are anything to go by but I also don’t have a good pulse on the HK population, I’m just repeating things others have told me on this front

I agree. I was there in HKDL last year, about a week after World of Frozen opened. I always have a soft spot for HKDL and I adore the park. It doesn’t have the history and prestige of California and it definitely doesn’t have the unlimited budget of Tokyo but it still has the “magic” that most Disney parks give out. When I went there in 2023, I was surprised at how clean and well maintained it was. I felt like it was even cleaner than it was when I first went there in 2007, 2 years after it opened. I heard Oceanpark right now is a complete mess in terms of reliability.

I think covid actually helped get rid of the local’s initial perception of the park still being a cheap park. With zero immigration policy HK adopted, locals were bored so they were forced to go to HKDL as a staycation. Many were surprised by how much the park has changed in the less than 20 years of its existence because many had vowed never to return after labeling it a knockoff cheap park after their first visit in the mid-2000s. I believe 2023 was the highest recorded amount of local, HK resident ticket entries ever.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I read an article about HK Disneyland being initially pitched to the public with 6 full lands: Main St. USA, Adventureland, Frontierland, Toontown, Fantasyland, Tomorrowland. Attractions would’ve included Jungle Cruise, jungle roller coaster (probably themed to Tarzan), Haunted Mansion, Big Thunder, river raft rapids, Space Mountain, and the usual Fantasyland dark rides, and more (I’m pretty sure either Pirates or Indie was part of the plan also). So being promised a park full of E-tickets and unique attractions to the getting a park with 1 (Space Mountain) is pretty underwhelming.

It wasn’t just pitched, it was announced! They promised a grand park and just didn’t deliver. They also promised that they were just trying to make Shanghai jealous when that was still clearly the plan.

The joint venture structure also helped to ensure that Disney didn’t necessarily care if the park is profitable. Part of the operating costs of the park is paying Disney for licensing and running operations which ensures Disney gets paid.

There’s also just been a good amount of racism in Disney’s work in China. A lot of lousy expectations regarding what “they” know, expect and will accept.

 

[Supersnow84]

It wasn’t just pitched, it was announced! They promised a grand park and just didn’t deliver. They also promised that they were just trying to make Shanghai jealous when that was still clearly the plan.

The joint venture structure also helped to ensure that Disney didn’t necessarily care if the park is profitable. Part of the operating costs of the park is paying Disney for licensing and running operations which ensures Disney gets paid.

There’s also just been a good amount of racism in Disney’s work in China. A lot of lousy expectations regarding what “they” know, expect and will accept.

One thing that’s interesting about the joint venture is that during Covid Disney actually suspended payments the park made to the wider company. So Disney wore the loss of the park over the city during the closure

It will be interesting to find out what “enough” is to push HK over the threshold considering right now both Chinese parks only have one ride mini land expansions on the horizon

 

[LameBoi]

It wasn’t just pitched, it was announced! They promised a grand park and just didn’t deliver. They also promised that they were just trying to make Shanghai jealous when that was still clearly the plan.

The joint venture structure also helped to ensure that Disney didn’t necessarily care if the park is profitable. Part of the operating costs of the park is paying Disney for licensing and running operations which ensures Disney gets paid.

There’s also just been a good amount of racism in Disney’s work in China. A lot of lousy expectations regarding what “they” know, expect and will accept.

Regarding licensing fees, every international park has to pay for them, but I believe operating fees (since Disney manages the park) were negotiated now to be slashed if they don’t turn a profit.

When designing and building the park, the Walt Disney company paid very little upfront costs as the Hong Kong government basically gave the company a low interest loan of a little over $700 million. Out of the $3+ billion USD involved, Walt Disney co. spent $200-300 million with the government shouldering the rest until the $700 million loan is repaid over a period of time.

Keep in mind the financial failure of Disneyland Paris or Euro Disneyland and the death of Frank Wells really put a stop to HKDL being the grand park that was promised.

 

[LameBoi]

One thing that’s interesting about the joint venture is that during Covid Disney actually suspended payments the park made to the wider company. So Disney wore the loss of the park over the city during the closure

It will be interesting to find out what “enough” is to push HK over the threshold considering right now both Chinese parks only have one ride mini land expansions on the horizon

As long as they continue meaningful capacity expansion that are beautiful themed, creative, and UNIQUE, they will get there. Add more thrill rides and E-tickets. That rumor, real or fake, of a Lion King flume from a few weeks ago would sound amazing, although probably should use another IP to not have duplicates. The Spider Man tower of terror makes sense.

By the way, although the Spider man coaster in Shanghai seems like a good idea on paper. I think it looks cheap to have exposed roller coaster supports and unthemed tracks. It is not Disney.

 

[Supersnow84]

As long as they continue meaningful capacity expansion that are beautiful themed, creative, and UNIQUE, they will get there. Add more thrill rides and E-tickets. That rumor, real or fake, of a Lion King flume from a few weeks ago would sound amazing, although probably should use another IP to not have duplicates. The Spider Man tower of terror makes sense.

By the way, although the Spider man coaster in Shanghai seems like a good idea on paper. I think it looks cheap to have exposed roller coaster supports and unthemed tracks. It is not Disney.

Shanghai just doesn’t seem to have the same qualms. It’s the only park you can see parts of the area outside of the park that aren’t hotels or mountains and they don’t make an attempt to hide it. If this was an actual concern it’s not like Shanghai doesn’t have the budget to fix it. But I definitely think the tower of terror is the better idea (has anyone looked at the plot size to see if it could fit the Florida ride design)

Regardless my only worry for HK is the fact that it’s running out of expansion space, it has 2.5 pads left ignoring the TOT pad and only one is big enough to fit an actual land. Soon they may need to use the second gate land simply because they have no space

 

[LameBoi]

Shanghai just doesn’t seem to have the same qualms. It’s the only park you can see parts of the area outside of the park that aren’t hotels or mountains and they don’t make an attempt to hide it. If this was an actual concern it’s not like Shanghai doesn’t have the budget to fix it. But I definitely think the tower of terror is the better idea (has anyone looked at the plot size to see if it could fit the Florida ride design)

Regardless my only worry for HK is the fact that it’s running out of expansion space, it has 2.5 pads left ignoring the TOT pad and only one is big enough to fit an actual land. Soon they may need to use the second gate land simply because they have no space

ToT should fit very well with space to spare. That plot was originally planned to be the Avengers Quinjet coaster (which would have been fully enclosed indoors) but that was scrapped because of technical and budget issues. Something interesting about the concept art for ToT is that it is using a lap bar instead of seatbelts. I have seen one picture online a month ago of what looked like a large ground drill, presumably to collect soil samples, behind the Tomorrowland theater and the railroad but that seems to have been removed now in more recent walkthroughs. Disney’s option to buy the second gate land at a locked price expired in 2020 meaning they would have to cough up at the current land value if they want it. Here is my bluesky idea, if HKDL wants more space, they can build over the MTR line and takeover the adjacent bus parking and fire department, but that would be expensive.

In regards to Shanghai, I would like to go to their park one day, but from the walkthroughs I’ve seen, it doesn’t feel very Disney.

 

[Supersnow84]

ToT should fit very well with space to spare. That plot was originally planned to be the Avengers Quinjet coaster (which would have been fully enclosed indoors) but that was scrapped because of technical and budget issues. Something interesting about the concept art for ToT is that it is using a lap bar instead of seatbelts. I have seen one picture online a month ago of what looked like a large ground drill, presumably to collect soil samples, behind the Tomorrowland theater and the railroad but that seems to have been removed now in more recent walkthroughs. Disney’s option to buy the second gate land at a locked price expired in 2020 meaning they would have to cough up at the current land value if they want it. Here is my bluesky idea, if HKDL wants more space, they can build over the MTR line and takeover the adjacent bus parking and fire department, but that would be expensive.

In regards to Shanghai, I would like to go to their park one day, but from the walkthroughs I’ve seen, it doesn’t feel very Disney.

I mean specifically if it can fit the Florida design or if they will only build the California/tokyo/Paris version because the Florida design is much bigger

And they can’t build over the MTR as far as I understand because the government owns the land above and below the train line

 

[marni1971]

I mean specifically if it can fit the Florida design or if they will only build the California/tokyo/Paris version because the Florida design is much bigger

Believe it or not the footprints are very similar in size.

 

[LameBoi]

I mean specifically if it can fit the Florida design or if they will only build the California/tokyo/Paris version because the Florida design is much bigger

And they can’t build over the MTR as far as I understand because the government owns the land above and below the train line

Just a quick rough measure on google maps shows the parcel to be about 2 acres while the ToT show building at DHS is less than 0.75 acres. My initial thought when seeing the concept art from D23 was that it would be a roller coaster ToT and not just the dark ride DHS version due to the lap bar, but that’s just wishful thinking.

Yes building on top of the tracks would depend on the government but it is in a trench so it would be entirely feasible if given permission. Plus, there is a lot of free land on the other side.

 

[BrianLo]

Keep in mind HK tourism in general has been rocked by SARS, the pandemic and most importantly two major rounds of protests. It was the latter that seemed to suppress the park, because it was really on a positive financial trajectory otherwise coming off Mystic Manor and Iron Man.

I think with that mostly settled, the park now after another round of investments, locals finally taking to the park and the completion of HSR + the Macau Mega bridge - its future is bright.

 

[disneyC97]

Having visited in October (and staying at the HK DL Hotel), the park was pretty crowded connected to the Halloween events...we didn't even try to get into "Let's Get Wicked" or "House of De Vil" as that area was packed, particularly afternoon on. We did the Nightmare Before Dinner, which was great. Wait times outside of Duffy and friends were reasonable both days we were in the park (a Friday and Monday), and the shops were nuts from mid-afternoon on (all around the park). The 10/10:30am opening time was not great, and with the extra hour we may have tried for one or both of the Halloween shows. I noticed they have luggage valet and a small shop (both look semi temporary) built into the wall/fencing on the right coming from the rail station to the park entrance. Feel like they'd do well with at least a fully built out gift shop and maybe a Starbucks in that stretch for now, though maybe they feel it would just cannabilize what's on Main Street.

 

[EPCOTCenterLover]

When will Disney ever learn that it is never a good idea to open a park with such a small attraction roster?