Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
69,000 a day is relatively low? (Metro rail)
33,000 a day for metromover. So that’s a combined 102,000 daily riders.
In a county with 2.75 million people I'd consider that relatively low especially because there is a lot of overlap in riders.

Also, that number is boardings so half that number of people use it.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
As I pointed out, it was very convenient for me. Of course, part of the idea was to get cars off the road going into downtown so some stations you can drive to and park (and its still faster during rush hour).

One of the other problems is, if you wait for the place to build up, there either no place left to run the rail (Hello, Metrorail phantom station!) or it becomes expensive to buy the land.

One of the smart things Brightline is doing is building condos, apartments, shop, etc around each station.
That is very smart of brightline so they don't rely on fares to make a profit. And by promoting "green transportation" it helps to get government approval for the projects.
 

Twirlnhurl

Well-Known Member
So how many people have to use a transit system for you to deem it worthwhile?

The cost per rider of the Metro Rail is relatively high compared to other systems in the US and is very high compared to other systems in the first world. It is possible that a bus rapid transit system could serve the same number of passengers with a similar level of service for a much smaller cost.

Of course, since the train already exists, the smart thing to do would be to eliminate zoning restrictions within walking distance of the stations to encourage development that would take advantage of the infrastructure that exists. Also, since the fixed cost of building the system has already been spent, it would cost a very small amount extra to have higher frequency during off-peak hours.
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member
As I pointed out, it was very convenient for me. Of course, part of the idea was to get cars off the road going into downtown so some stations you can drive to and park (and its still faster during rush hour).

One of the other problems is, if you wait for the place to build up, there either no place left to run the rail (Hello, Metrorail phantom station!) or it becomes expensive to buy the land.

One of the smart things Brightline is doing is building condos, apartments, shop, etc around each station.
I agree. As I understand it, high density residential is "supposed" to build up around the outer stations and even higher density office space is supposed to go up around the downtown stations. That's certainly what happened in the northeast over the years. In more recent times, this ends up stymied a lot of the time due to neighborhoods preventing higher density housing from going up.

That is smart of Brightline. Previously the money from the real estate boom around the stations went to politicians and their relatives and friends.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
It is a done deal. Construction will start immediately. 10,000 jobs! Winning.


From the article:

"In the disclosure report, Virgin Trains said the company had about half of the ridership it predicted for 2018 and lost more than $87 million in its first nine months of operation."

I'm not sure how they are convincing investors to buy these bonds. There wasn't all that much CAPEX to amortize on the part of the route that they have already started.

Also:

"Travel time between Orlando and Miami is expected to be 3 hours, 15 minutes, according to train officials"

How is this remotely considered "high speed rail?" Outside of rush hour, I don't think it takes that much longer to drive from Miami to MCO. If I don't stop I can easily drive from near Sawgrass Mills to Epcot in 3 hours and 10 minutes going all the way to I-4 on the Turnpike and coming back south to WDW and never exceeding 9 MPH over the speed limit. If I went to MCO instead, it would be around 3 hours.

Point being, you maybe save 20-30 minutes by train. To me, that's not high speed rail. Plus, to take Brightline/Virgin, I have to drive to the station and get there a little early. Door to door time might be faster driving.
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
From the article:

"In the disclosure report, Virgin Trains said the company had about half of the ridership it predicted for 2018 and lost more than $87 million in its first nine months of operation."

I'm not sure how they are convincing investors to buy these bonds. There wasn't all that much CAPEX to amortize on the part of the route that they have already started.

Also:

"Travel time between Orlando and Miami is expected to be 3 hours, 15 minutes, according to train officials"

How is this remotely considered "high speed rail?" Outside of rush hour, I don't think it takes that much longer to drive from Miami to MCO. If I don't stop I can easily drive from near Sawgrass Mills to Epcot in 3 hours and 10 minutes going all the way to I-4 on the Turnpike and coming back south to WDW and never exceeding 9 MPH over the speed limit. If I went to MCO instead, it would be around 3 hours.

Point being, you maybe save 20-30 minutes by train. To me, that's not high speed rail. Plus, to take Brightline/Virgin, I have to drive to the station and get there a little early. Door to door time might be faster driving.

The main driver will be tourism and business travel. After that those who don't have cars. That includes retirees and more and more young people. There are several elements being considered especially designed for tourism and I think those projections look very good to investors.

Sounds like it wouldn't be your best travel option though.
 

Lensman

Well-Known Member
From the article:

"In the disclosure report, Virgin Trains said the company had about half of the ridership it predicted for 2018 and lost more than $87 million in its first nine months of operation."

I'm not sure how they are convincing investors to buy these bonds. There wasn't all that much CAPEX to amortize on the part of the route that they have already started.

Also:

"Travel time between Orlando and Miami is expected to be 3 hours, 15 minutes, according to train officials"

How is this remotely considered "high speed rail?" Outside of rush hour, I don't think it takes that much longer to drive from Miami to MCO. If I don't stop I can easily drive from near Sawgrass Mills to Epcot in 3 hours and 10 minutes going all the way to I-4 on the Turnpike and coming back south to WDW and never exceeding 9 MPH over the speed limit. If I went to MCO instead, it would be around 3 hours.

Point being, you maybe save 20-30 minutes by train. To me, that's not high speed rail. Plus, to take Brightline/Virgin, I have to drive to the station and get there a little early. Door to door time might be faster driving.
Whatever our assessment of what the right price/yield is for this (tax-exempt) private activity bond is, millionaires and institutional investors thought they were worth giving them a yield of between 6.25% and 6.5%, depending on term and put date.

There were “lots of fund flow monies looking for yield,” said the banker, who asked not to be named.
The bonds are secured by a first priority lien on assets that include revenues, passenger rail easements, stations, rolling stock, leasehold interests, reserve funds and a pledge of the equity interest of the borrower.

And I think it's been corrected every few pages on this thread that, thread title notwithstanding, Brightline isn't high speed rail, but rather, "higher speed rail", which ironically is considered slower than high speed rail. Lol @lazyboy97o said it best:
The high speed rail project was a boondoggle because the distances and traffic did not justify the huge additional expense of genuine high speed trains and equipment. The Brightline is not a high speed train but a higher speed train, which is actually slower than a high speed train. The trains are more like conventional trains,capable of exceeding 100 mph in normal operation but not nearly as expensive and demanding as true high speed.

Brightline is also a subsidiary of the Florida East Coast Railway, the railroad built by Henry Flagler from Jacksonville over the sea to Key West.
Brightline/Virgin Trains will cut a couple hours off of the travel time by train between Miami and Orlando - maybe an hour off of the travel time from West Palm Beach to Orlando by train. It's not insignificant.
 

halltd

Well-Known Member
I will totally take this unless the price is crazy high. I usually go to Miami where I don’t need a car. And, to have a car means upwards of 30-50 a night to park it.

But, to avoid the stress of the turnpike on a weekend, that’s worth it to me. I can sleep, do work, read, surf the net, etc.... Even if it took 20 min longer, I’d still do it. The trains are beautiful, too!!!
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Selling the bonds does not mean this project will ever get done. All it means is ot will start construction. Cost overruns will occur and you can be sure they will need to raise more money to finish it. I couldn't care less about the Miami to Oregon train other than hoping it helps Disney make more money but unless the fare is subsidized by the State or Orange County Hotel taxes, don't count on it being a success.
 

Voxel

President of Progress City
The main driver will be tourism and business travel. After that those who don't have cars. That includes retirees and more and more young people. There are several elements being considered especially designed for tourism and I think those projections look very good to investors.

Sounds like it wouldn't be your best travel option though.
This is a big possible factor. I was reading an article talking about the decline of Younger Drivers due to many factors. Cost of Cars, Public Schools removing Drivers Ed, Increasing qualifications to get a license, the cost to buy an instructor to learn how to drive, plus the rise of lyft and uber.
 

biggy H

Well-Known Member
Outside of rush hour, I don't think it takes that much longer to drive from Miami to MCO. If I don't stop I can easily drive from near Sawgrass Mills to Epcot in 3 hours and 10 minutes going all the way to I-4 on the Turnpike and coming back south to WDW and never exceeding 9 MPH over the speed limit. If I went to MCO instead, it would be around 3 hours.


For a start they say from Orlando to Miami, meaning city centre to city centre, not MCO to MIA (airport to airport). Its a critical difference as those extra few miles from city centre to the airport each end are usually at a lot slower speeds whereas the train should be able to run at its intended top speed for all of the distance.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
For a start they say from Orlando to Miami, meaning city centre to city centre, not MCO to MIA (airport to airport). Its a critical difference as those extra few miles from city centre to the airport each end are usually at a lot slower speeds whereas the train should be able to run at its intended top speed for all of the distance.
Most users of the train will have to get to the city center on one or both ends of the journey. We aren't talking about Manhattan to Washington DC where a large percentage of the passengers are traveling from near the city center to near the city center.

Door to door travel time by air from South Florida to WDW ends up being roughly the same as driving when you factor in travel to and from the airports and getting to the origin airport at least an hour early. That's with the plane flying much of the journey at 500 MPH, although the departure and approach patterns add time.

I can't imagine that a Brightline speed train will be much faster than air door to door.
 

AndyMagic

Well-Known Member
Maybe this has been answered already but every prior train plan for the Orlando area included a station at the Orange County Convention Center. Is there any word if this new expansion plan will include one there as well? I'm assuming Universal would be joining forces with the city to make sure this happens since Fantastic Worlds will be adjacent to the OCC
 

Bermination

New Member
Maybe this has been answered already but every prior train plan for the Orlando area included a station at the Orange County Convention Center. Is there any word if this new expansion plan will include one there as well? I'm assuming Universal would be joining forces with the city to make sure this happens since Fantastic Worlds will be adjacent to the OCC

As of today the plans that have been published have the train ONLY going to the Airport hub.
 

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