Fun With Numbers: MK Maingate Blackout Edition

[ThemeParkJunkee]

I changed my profile, after the upthread discussion, since PhotoDave mentioned it. But I was called sir again, today by someone else, so I don't know

We'll try profile pic. It's the one I have on another site, but I might change it to something WDW related, because that one is 1980 Disneyland.

Well, my avatar/profile pic doesn't exactly scream "I'm a Girl" either. A Disney pic is appropriate no matter where you took it. I wish mine was from Tokyo Disney Sea personally.

Enough thread drift. Back to "Fun With Numbers" and thanks Dave for your tireless devotion to Excel.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Well, my avatar/profile pic doesn't exactly scream "I'm a Girl" either. A Disney pic is appropriate no matter where you took it. I wish mine was from Tokyo Disney Sea personally.

Enough thread drift. Back to "Fun With Numbers" and thanks Dave for your tireless devotion to Excel.

I'm just looking for trends.

And the trend right now? There's a distinct possibility that Disney will black out more than 50% of the year at the MK this year.

 

[PhotoDave219]

The biggest thing that None of us know is exactly how much of the audience is Comprised of Cast and their guests.

We can hear whatever we want from hearsay or traditions but until someone leaks a document that says otherwise, we're stuck with guesstimates.

And I don't like guesstimates. I do like unhappy CMs who are willing to take a screenshot with personal info redacted and then send it on to others....

 

[s8film40]

The biggest thing that None of us know is exactly how much of the audience is Comprised of Cast and their guests.

We can hear whatever we want from hearsay or traditions but until someone leaks a document that says otherwise, we're stuck with guesstimates.

And I don't like guesstimates. I do like unhappy CMs who are willing to take a screenshot with personal info redacted and then send it on to others....

The one piece of information you could probably calculate is the maximum potential Main Gate usage. We know an approximate number of employees we know the blue Main Gate passes allow 16 uses per year. You could then take the total attendance for the year and figure out what percentage that makes up. Of course that doesn't account for Silver pass usage but I would think it would kind of balance out, there are plenty of people who never use a pass at all. Also don't forget about green Main Gate passes (6 admissions per year)

 

[PhotoDave219]

The one piece of information you could probably calculate is the maximum potential Main Gate usage. We know an approximate number of employees we know the blue Main Gate passes allow 16 uses per year. You could then take the total attendance for the year and figure out what percentage that makes up. Of course that doesn't account for Silver pass usage but I would think it would kind of balance out, there are plenty of people who never use a pass at all. Also don't forget about green Main Gate passes (6 admissions per year)

But we don't know the Blue Maingate /silver pass breakdown

 

[KC00]

FWIW, I know that CPs do get a Maingate these days but that was not always the case. I did the CP in 2000 and we did not get a Maingate. The only tickets I had available for friends/family came in the form of 4 1 day park tickets I received twice a year as a campus rep AFTER my CP ended.

I don't know when they started giving CPs a Maingate and whether that could have affected attendance patterns in any meaningful way. A rudimentary search seems to indicate that CPs were getting a Maingate as far back as 2007 so probably long enough ago that it is unrelated to the recent increase in blackout dates but I figured it was worth noting that CPs were not always eligible for Maingates,

 

[PhotoDave219]

FWIW, I know that CPs do get a Maingate these days but that was not always the case. I did the CP in 2000 and we did not get a Maingate. The only tickets I had available for friends/family came in the form of 4 1 day park tickets I received twice a year as a campus rep AFTER my CP ended.

I don't know when they started giving CPs a Maingate and whether that could have affected attendance patterns in any meaningful way. A rudimentary search seems to indicate that CPs were getting a Maingate as far back as 2007 so probably long enough ago that it is unrelated to the recent increase in blackout dates but I figured it was worth noting that CPs were not always eligible for Maingates,

Taking CP maingates away and giving them Comps seems like a better solution than "just blackout everyone"

 

[wogwog]

Finally decided to wade into "Fun With Numbers" with Dave. Since I am not a CM, I will comment from the Disney Guest perspective. With the wages WDW pays to their CMs and so many Pixie Dust loving people who consider this a "dream job" because of the perks, the decision to greatly increase the number of blackout dates for Maingate tickets is a travesty. Now I do understand that predicting crowds is not an exact science and more and more special events are being added (many at an additional charge).

I personally met many, many CMs on my recent trip in October 2014 to WDW. The dates I was there were not all blacked out. Many of these CMs were staying at POP with out of town relatives. They were all cheerful and positive and everything but I'm sure that is because I was a guest. I can't help but wonder how they really feel.

I truly feel that Disney is lacking in capacity to do right by their guests and their employees so lets first mess with FP, then employee benefits, then we'll raise prices, and as a last resort, add capacity. What a load.

Also, Hope...I am female and downright shocked that some of these boys did not catch the symbol for "female" as your avatar.

Men are stupid.

 

[s8film40]

But we don't know the Blue Maingate /silver pass breakdown

Well yes it's still really an estimate. I think it would be interesting though to know if you assume everyone has a blue Maingate and uses it to it's full potential what percentage that is. I would expect this number to be higher than the actual number as many people (most that I know) don't use the passes to the full potential.

 

[ThemeParkJunkee]

I'm just looking for trends.

And the trend right now? There's a distinct possibility that Disney will black out more than 50% of the year at the MK this year.

It is quite likely given the lack of actual low attendance days. I was completely shocked that my normal touring plans for the third week in October was so completely messed up from the same time four years prior. A lot of it was the impact of FP+ but some of it is the attempts by WDW to increase attendance by any means. Increases and extensions of the F&W and MNSSHP as well as additional upcharge events (Epcot After Hours, Illuminations Dessert Party, Room Discounts (got one) etc. The resorts may be at an occupancy level that other hotel owners would drool over, but the parks do not have the capacity.

With fewer "low crowd days"...fewer days are available as benefits to CMs. WDW still wants to redistribute crowds to the point of maximizing attendance, guest spending etc. As they become more successful, fewer days are slow enough to encourage Maingate attendance.

They just need to improve the wage and benefit package and offer a deep discount on annual passes. This whole blackout thing needs to just go away.

 

[KC00]

Taking CP maingates away and giving them Comps seems like a better solution than "just blackout everyone"

I also don't think they'd see much of a drop off in applications to the CP by taking away the Maingate. I knew going in that I was only going to get admission to the parks for myself and a killer salary of $5.65/hour but I still did it. I am sure current CPs and those looking into the program in the immediate future would be less than thrilled but in the long run I don't think it would matter.

 

[s8film40]

I would think CP's having maingates would have a very high potential to facilitate their friends and families vacations. Family and friends know that the CP will only have the pass for a short time so there is a sense of urgency to take advantage of the benefit. Then of course this large group of people just resets every 6 months.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It is quite likely given the lack of actual low attendance days. I was completely shocked that my normal touring plans for the third week in October was so completely messed up from the same time four years prior. A lot of it was the impact of FP+ but some of it is the attempts by WDW to increase attendance by any means. Increases and extensions of the F&W and MNSSHP as well as additional upcharge events (Epcot After Hours, Illuminations Dessert Party, Room Discounts (got one) etc. The resorts may be at an occupancy level that other hotel owners would drool over, but the parks do not have the capacity.

With fewer "low crowd days"...fewer days are available as benefits to CMs. WDW still wants to redistribute crowds to the point of maximizing attendance, guest spending etc. As they become more successful, fewer days are slow enough to encourage Maingate attendance.

They just need to improve the wage and benefit package and offer a deep discount on annual passes. This whole blackout thing needs to just go away.

Preach!

 

[KC00]

I would think CP's having maingates would have a very high potential to facilitate their friends and families vacations. Family and friends know that the CP will only have the pass for a short time so there is a sense of urgency to take advantage of the benefit. Then of course this large group of people just resets every 6 months.

True but my friends and family came to visit me even without that benefit. They took advantage of the room discount I was able to get and the food and merchandise discounts but they purchased their own park passes. So Disney actually made MORE money off of me as a CP without a maingate since my visitors all had to buy park passes.

But I can see how the free admission could be a selling point to those who wouldn't come otherwise.

 

[ThemeParkJunkee]

Preach!

Let's not bring religion into this. But seriously, I was in administration (Hospital CFO) and it is really amazing the creative ways to structure wages and benefits without really changing your bottom line that can be created.

The perceived benefit of the employee is HUGE. Say, we raise CM pay enough for them to purchase the deeply discounted annual pass I suggested and allow them to purchase the same for their immediate family. Just make a spreadsheet (I did this all the time during out union negotiations). Granted, we didn't have nearly the number of employees, but it is possible to make it revenue neutral while improving retention. Turnover costs a lot.

 

[SirNim]

This is a wonderful topic to probe, thanks for bringing this subject to everyone's attention. I had no idea MK blockouts were this bad! Yikes...

 

[s8film40]

True but my friends and family came to visit me even without that benefit. They took advantage of the room discount I was able to get and the food and merchandise discounts but they purchased their own park passes. So Disney actually made MORE money off of me as a CP without a maingate since my visitors all had to buy park passes.

But I can see how the free admission could be a selling point to those who wouldn't come otherwise.

Yep I did a CP in 2000 also. I had family visit, but they didn't stay that long. If I had had a maingate they would have been planning their 12 day vacation. I think as a regular cast member you get friends and family here and their but I feel like a CP with a maingate would really get taken advantage of and of course facilitate vacations that would have otherwise been paid for at some point or another. I personally think they shouldn't have a maingate perhaps something in between that lets them admit less people fewer times.

 

[AEfx]

But I can see how the free admission could be a selling point to those who wouldn't come otherwise.

And honestly - do we want CPers who would make the decision to do it or not based on a Maingate pass? I shudder.

It's clear they did it because they have to keep the CP factory full. It's been years since I have heard numbers but at one point wasn't it like 43% or something of FOTL CM's were CP?

Those who really want to be there are so few and far between - so many just see it as a "semester off at WDW" - get there, realize they are going to work you to death and not pay you crap, and are just marking time.

I know some folks have had wonderful experiences - and that's great - but in general, of all the "evil" (corporate) things Disney does, the CP is really the one that really bad to me - it is so clearly just a sham to get underpaid labor. It's not best for the guest experience, whatsoever, except for that rare CPer who actually loves Disney - but they are so few and far between these days.

 

[-em]

My 2 cents- I really wish they'd go back to only parks and resorts having main gates as I think that's more the cause for increased blackout dates more so than money etc.. If 4-5x more people have potential to go to x park y day and the 'acceptable threshold of cast admits' puts the 'potential admits' as more then it's blacked out.. I know the extended mk block outs are really wearing on wdw cast wanting to bring their kids for the day..

Course I'm curious what's prevented people more from using their passes, blackouts or the reusable guest passes where you have to get the pass back or it's a replacement charge each time which I would wager has dropped getting in mom's best friends sisters kids or other 'not direct friends'' in since you either need to stick with them all day or pray you get the cards back for next time...

 

[PhotoDave219]

And even then those CP participants who 'love' Disney only, at least in my experience and opinion, love the idea of Disney....if that makes any lick of sense. Between my full program in 2012 and half program last fall, I met maybe one for two folks who truly grasped what it meant to be a Disney Cast Member (hint: it isn't spamming your Instagram with pictures of Tiana and Aurora everyday).

Well..... Ive got stories back from 2004 about CPs and just witnessing what they'd do or stories they'd tell me. I can only assume it got worse.