Fun With Numbers: MK Maingate Blackout Edition

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
My theory...CMs are statistically insignificant to overall attendance, but are statistically significantly for areas that have "capacity deficiencies." Take Frozen and the 900 per hour. 10,800 seats in a 12 hour day. 3500 maingaters (I just picked a number, no idea how many actually exist) would represent about 11% of Epcot's daily average attendance, but 32.5% of the daily capacity for the ride.

In the case of the MK, I suspect that FP+ has upset the apple cart. Day trippers are choosing MK more frequently, and less park hopping (due to late FP availability in the lesser parks) so the "in park, at this exact moment" attendance is climbing , and with thousands more people ejected from queues (when HM, Pirates, and the other rides were added to FP), the park just wasn't designed to have that many people in walkways, etc. They were meant to be in queues. CMs are the only ones that they have the power to restrict access. If Epcot were to get 3500 maingated, maybe MK gets 5000, and that can have an impact for curb space for parades, tables in a restaurant, the line at Mine Train or Peter Pan, etc.

I've heard that cast members only make up somewhere between 2–5% of the daily audience. Just trying to verify that…

Assuming that's correct… Magic Kingdom, worst case, 2648 cast members come to play, on average. I can't imagine that everyone of those would be getting people in.

So maybe 1000 people a day? Even 2000?

Either way it's statistically insignificant. I could understand if it was 25% of the audience or 50% of the audience… But five percent? 2%? It's ridiculous.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
Silver is unlimited for CM and guests but only 3 guests at a time. I can't line up with 50 folks and go Be My Guest.
Yeah, I was piggybacking on Dave's post and he covered that. It also could be more than three if you have more dependents than that. If you have a wife and four kids, for example, you'll get your pass, a spouse pass, and four guest passes.

74,000 on WDW property and surrounding area. Does not include on ship.
I believe that number is a maximum of seasonal variability and also includes things like the Tampa call center. I wouldn't count a seasonal employee who's only there for a couple of weeks at a time as a "full" employee for main entrance pass impact purposes.
 

s8film40

Well-Known Member
I think the recent changes in cast member admission have less to do with capacity and more to do with converting those free admissions to paid admissions. The other somewhat recent change that affected this was raising the seasonal requirements, there were quite a few people who held on to their seasonal status just for the admission.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Any day that stands at risk of a phased closing is probably already blocked out anyways.

I think some would object to Disney's definition of "too busy" and suggest that the threshold be lowered.

I agree with that. But this goes back to the number crunching. We've got 66% of the blackout days that are merely average crowd levels; would an additional 5% (worst case, IMO) actually matter or move those crowds into a peak level?

If no, then exactly what the hell is Disney doing here?

Again, 1998 a mere 38 Blackouts. Holidays, Spring Break, Christmas. July 4th Week.

2000? 8 days.

2014? 153 days.

I cant see where 5% would swing a tipping point.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I think the recent changes in cast member admission have less to do with capacity and more to do with converting those free admissions to paid admissions. The other somewhat recent change that affected this was raising the seasonal requirements, there were quite a few people who held on to their seasonal status just for the admission.

I'm not sure. I kind of agree with it in principle. Rather, thats one of the conclusions I'd be willing to speculate on. But at 5%? also, statistically insignificant.

(Assuming 5% is right)
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
However, you admitted that this 5% figure is not based on knowledge of actual numbers.

Look, I don't see you doing any heavy lifting here. I don't see you doing any number crunching. I don't see you doing any research.

Sooooooooo If you're gonna take that kinda attitude, you can go elsewhere.

But to answer your question, its a number tossed around traditions classes. Whether its accurate or not, IDK. I'd love to know. But its a starting point....

Of course, if anyone out there with actual knowledge wants to drop an anonymous private message... please feel free.
 
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WDF

Well-Known Member
Look, I don't see you doing any heavy lifting here. I don't see you doing any number crunching. I don't see you doing any research.

Sooooooooo If you're gonna take that kinda attitude, you can go elsewhere.

But to answer your question, its a number tossed around traditions classes. Whether its accurate or not, IDK. I'd love to know. But its a starting point....

Of course, if anyone out there with actual knowledge wants to drop an anonymous private message... please feel free.

You said this was FUN with numbers. No one asked you to do it.

You have a lovely online demeanor.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
I agree with that. But this goes back to the number crunching. We've got 66% of the blackout days that are merely average crowd levels; would an additional 5% (worst case, IMO) actually matter or move those crowds into a peak level?

If no, then exactly what the hell is Disney doing here?

Again, 1998 a mere 38 Blackouts. Holidays, Spring Break, Christmas. July 4th Week.

2000? 8 days.

2014? 153 days.

I cant see where 5% would swing a tipping point.
It's how cast-as-guests travel. They're concentrated at Space, Splash, Big Thunder, and Mine Train. They don't visit Hall of Presidents or stroll through Tom Sawyer Island.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It's how cast-as-guests travel. They're concentrated at Space, Splash, Big Thunder, and Mine Train. They don't visit Hall of Presidents or stroll through Tom Sawyer Island.

Keep them off my Island! Thats my "escape from these people" place.

And yes, I wont disagree. Tho once in March 2004, MK was closing on a Friday at 7. We did the entire mountain run in 45 minutes. Loved it. No fastpass. Those days are long gone....
 

maxairmike

Well-Known Member
It's how cast-as-guests travel. They're concentrated at Space, Splash, Big Thunder, and Mine Train. They don't visit Hall of Presidents or stroll through Tom Sawyer Island.

o_O

Not sure how often you visit the park with CMs, or maybe you visited with a different crowd, but over the last several years my direct experience with a fairly good amount of CM friends is exactly the opposite in terms of what they do in the park. The mountains are pretty much only done if you can snag a last minute FP (or have a friend working there) in the group I run with (and most are general coaster enthusiasts as well, so they'd definitely prefer to do the mountains). Now the CPs, yes, that's definitely where they tend to focus their time in the parks, the headliners with the long waits.
 

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