G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
Two people, traveling together, both get a false positive?
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FL Governor tells CDC to get its act together
- Thread starter ChuckElias
- Start date
G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
Maybe but it would be highly unlikely. A false negative from the same batch, sure. But not typically to false positives from the same batch. It's just the way those tests are designed.
Wendy Pleakley
Well-Known Member
The article described guests as being fully vaccinated. It's safe to assume that means they didn't accept anyone who wasn't two weeks post vaccine. Nor is there reason to suspect they faked their status.
Vaccines are not 100% effective. The range is 72 to 95 percent effective at stopping infection (J&J vs Pfizer).
It would not be shocking to learn 5 out of every 100 passengers on a cruise caught COVID. This ship had 500 passengers, so 2 is actually a good result.
Some infections is also an expected result. Therefore there's no reason to conclude the guests somehow faked their vaccination status. The results are consistent with a fully vaccinated roster.
The ship did stop in ports, so guests were not restricted to a COVID free bubble. There were also unvaccinated children on board.
G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
But weren't the two they found on that trip together? Highly unlikely that two people from the same group were found to have been infected after taking the vaccine.
Actually, it would be highly likely that the two cases would be from the same party. After all, if they share a cabin, they will have been in close proximity to each other for extremely extended periods of time, such as a total of 24+ hours. It is also equally likely that they are false positives or that one of the two is a false positive. They could also have contracted it just before their final dose of the vaccine. Another possibility is that the antibodies themselves caused a positive result. We don't know which if the vaccines they received, we also don't know for sure they got the vaccine in the U.S. and some have been known to cause false positives for as long as 3 months after the final dose.
Statistically speaking out of 500 people, assuming they all had the Pfizer vaccine, we would expect at least 10 people to be infected, as it.is only 98% effective. If some had Moderna that number should be higher and even some had Johnson and Johnson, it should be higher still.
So 2 out of 500 is doing extremely well statistically. Additionally, those 2 cases would be a lot less severe than if they weren't vaccinated, remember it isn't a out completely eliminating COVID, it is about making sure cases are at manageable level.
G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
Two people? From the same party? With the same 5% or less chance of getting the virus? At the same time?
Can you pick my next lottery numbers?
nickys
Premium Member
One passed it to the other. What is so hard to believe about that if they were a couple?
G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
Because if you take the two most popular vaccines you have a 5% to 6% chance of getting the virus. 5% to 6%. Five. To. Six. Percent. I'm just saying that the odds that two people from the same household passed it on to one another is highly unlikely. It's more likely that both of them were full of it and lied about taking the vaccine in the first place. But yeah, I guess maybe, just possibly, in a remotely possible scenario they might have passed it on to one another. Because we know that no one has been lying about taking the vaccine so far. People are completely 100% honest.
nickys
Premium Member
None of the vaccines are showing as good efficacy against the Delta variant.Because if you take the two most popular vaccines you have a 5% to 6% chance of getting the virus. 5% to 6%. Five. To. Six. Percent. I'm just saying that the odds that two people from the same household passed it on to one another is highly unlikely. It's more likely that both of them were full of it and lied about taking the vaccine in the first place. But yeah, I guess maybe, just possibly, in a remotely possible scenario they might have passed it on to one another. Because we know that no one has been lying about taking the vaccine so far. People are completely 100% honest.
I know you guys aren’t using AZ but that is down to 60% against Delta, Pfizer is around 85% instead of 95% against other variants.
Plus the Delta variant is spreading rapidly and easily, and children are getting it in greater numbers than at the peak of our second wave - we can’t compare to the first wave because kids just didn’t get tested nearly as much then. ( schools were virtual from before Easter to either just before the end of term for some kids in England, to August for kids in Scotland
We really are in a third wave, only this time those affected are younger and generally less likely to get seriously ill.
So going back to this story, if one of them had been exposed to the Delta variant the chances are actually reasonably high they would have passed it onto the other.
That's not what the 5% number means.Because if you take the two most popular vaccines you have a 5% to 6% chance of getting the virus. 5% to 6%. Five. To. Six. Percent. I'm just saying that the odds that two people from the same household passed it on to one another is highly unlikely. It's more likely that both of them were full of it and lied about taking the vaccine in the first place. But yeah, I guess maybe, just possibly, in a remotely possible scenario they might have passed it on to one another. Because we know that no one has been lying about taking the vaccine so far. People are completely 100% honest.
Here's an example:
Let's say a trial had 100 people vaccinated, and the placebo group had 100 unvaccinated people.
Then, let's say that in the vaccinated group, one person got sick with COVID, and in the unvaccinated group, 10 people got sick with COVID.
The vaccine reduced cases from 10 to 1, it is then considered 90% effective.
BUT... only one in a hundred of the vaccinated got sick... that's 99% effective for them.
So, it would be incorrect to say that with a 90% efficacy, that we expect every 10 out of 100 to get sick.
Likewise, it would be incorrect to say that Pfizer's 95% efficacy means that every 5 out of 100 people will get sick.
Also note, I will say it again, tho everyone will say, "Yeah, I know!!" -- and still miss the point -- you most definitely can be reinfected with COVID after being vaccinated. But people forget that the efficacy is about keeping people from getting seriously ill, not from simply testing positive while asymptomatic.
Without a cause for a test (like getting on a cruise ship), people aren't aware of all the times they're getting reinfected, and that's because their body is primed to immediately fight the virus. COVID already has high incidences of being asymptomatic, and being vaccinated will only raise the incidences of that happening.
The difference is that those already vaccinated and reinfected are a lot less contagious than the unvaccinated (and unlikely to get surprise long term effects like damaged organs).
This^^^
A whole bunch of things has to line up perfectly for 2 unrelated people to have been fully vaccinated and become infected. Sure, it is possible but not all that probable.
Two unrelated people lying about their vaccination status; not so much.
aliceismad
Well-Known Member
I know a couple who got covid after being vaccinated. Different vaccines too. No travel. Just out eating and shopping and working like normal people do.
Eight members of the Yankees organization got covid, all while vaccinated. Is it just coincidence that they work together in close quarters?
Eight members of the Yankees organization got covid, all while vaccinated. Is it just coincidence that they work together in close quarters?
Not surprising at all for people who get tested regularly to find they've been (re)infected.
No vaccine prevents infection or reinfection, it just gets your immune system ready to fight the virus immediately.
This isn't news unless a fully vaccinated person is hospitalized.
The 95% effectiveness of vaccines measure preventing getting seriously ill, not getting asymptomatically (re)infected.
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Bob Harlem
Well-Known Member
Judge rules in favor of Florida over the CDC (at least as filing an injunction against the CDC order.
Primary bit of info here. The injunction is stayed until July 18, at which time the Conditional Sail Order will only stay as a non-binding consideration, recommendation or guideline, and not the law.
www.orlandosentinel.com
also
www.cruiseindustrynews.com
Primary bit of info here. The injunction is stayed until July 18, at which time the Conditional Sail Order will only stay as a non-binding consideration, recommendation or guideline, and not the law.
Court rules for Florida in cruise case, grants injunction stopping CDC order, but not yet
A federal court granted a preliminary injunction against the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its conditional sail order that has shut down the cruise industry during the COVID-19 pan…
www.orlandosentinel.com
also
Florida Wins Court Case Against CDC to Lift Conditional Sail Order - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News
The State of Florida has prevailed in its injunction against the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to lift the Conditional Sail Order (CSO) that has been restricting the cruise industry since October 2020. A court essentially ruled in favor of Florida that the CSO exceeds the CDC's...
www.cruiseindustrynews.com
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AmishGuy91
Well-Known Member
Judge rules in favor of Florida over the CDC (at least as filing an injunction against the CDC order.
Primary bit of info here. The injunction is stayed until July 18, at which time the Conditional Sail Order will only stay as a non-binding consideration, recommendation or guideline, and not the law.
Court rules for Florida in cruise case, grants injunction stopping CDC order, but not yet
A federal court granted a preliminary injunction against the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its conditional sail order that has shut down the cruise industry during the COVID-19 pan…
Wow I imagine this would more or less have played itself out in a month or so anyhow but still shocking Florida actually won this
Here is one not behind a paywall.
www.wptv.com
Federal judge rules for Florida in cruise ship lawsuit
A federal judge has ruled in favor of Florida in its fight against the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its conditional sail order that has grounded the cruise ship industry since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
www.wptv.com
Did you read the article or the lawsuit?