There could always be regular versions of shows on the 4th. Should they choose to start before then.Not sure if you’re meaning most posters, most bloggers or what.
Have you been following the main thread on this? Our insiders have been saying for a while that Disney want to avoid a huge event on July 4th. And although they haven’t categorically ruled out the beginning of the month, it would seem to be counter intuitive to start them before July 4th.
If MK and Epcot do start the same night, then between July 5th and 15th seems likely, since Food and Wine starts on July 15th. That’s my guess.