FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[Chip Chipperson]

I'm saying throughout the day, but if you want to break it down by show, ok.

Would you say 1500 more people looking for lines elsewhere would make those lines longer or shorter?

I was just responding because you said there were 9,000 people "at any given time," which implied that there were an extra 9,000 people looking for a line all day and that vastly Overstated the impact. If that's not what you intended to say then it was just a misunderstanding.

Yes, 1,500 people need to he somewhere else with the show closed, but for most of the time since the parks reopened they had capacity reduced by more than 1,500 people. What cap there is now isn't clear (if there still is one). It would be nice if they made that information available to the consumer, though.

 

[UNCgolf]

There are about 29 rides in the MK.

Let's just take into account the most popular 20 of them.

If there are 1,000 people an hour absorbed into show, but not any more, then they are in the lines for those 20 rides.

That's an extra 50 people per ride.

These rides have at the minimum and average of throughputting 1,000 people per hour. So, those extra 50 people are adding 3 minutes to each ride.

So even if one says that if shows were eating 3,000 people an hour, that's still adding less than 10 minutes per ride for lack of shows.

It's more likely they'd be adding 15-20 minutes to some rides and little or none to others, but impossible to say for sure.

The lack of parades probably hurts capacity far more than anything else, considering how early people get in place to save their spots.

 

[iowamomof4]

Nope.

Too bad. They were fun.

 

[homerdance]

How many unreturned shows are there in the MK that are artificially inflating ride times at MK?

The parade is the only big "show" left. I know M&Gs eat some people, but nowhere near the numbers of the rides/attractions already open. That's it.

Say for Tink, with 1 room operating, each group of 4 spends 5 minutes with the characters, that is 12 groups per hour, with 50 people? Say there are 10 seperate lines, that still is less than 500 people per hour, that isn't that many people.

 

[homerdance]

There are about 29 rides in the MK.

Let's just take into account the most popular 20 of them.

If there are 1,000 people an hour absorbed into show, but not any more, then they are in the lines for those 20 rides.

That's an extra 50 people per ride.

These rides have at the minimum and average of throughputting 1,000 people per hour. So, those extra 50 people are adding 3 minutes to each ride.

So even if one says that if shows were eating 3,000 people an hour, that's still adding less than 10 minutes per ride for lack of shows.

Bringing the facts. I agree that the lack of M&G's has an impacts, but as you stated, 3 minutes per ride is next to nothing if the throughput is 1,000 for those (i can't make the math work to get that high though, perhaps someone smarter can). If you include all the M&Gs you might get to 1,000 if you have some ridiculous short character interaction.

 

[kong1802]

There are about 29 rides in the MK.

Let's just take into account the most popular 20 of them.

If there are 1,000 people an hour absorbed into show, but not any more, then they are in the lines for those 20 rides.

That's an extra 50 people per ride.

These rides have at the minimum and average of throughputting 1,000 people per hour. So, those extra 50 people are adding 3 minutes to each ride.

So even if one says that if shows were eating 3,000 people an hour, that's still adding less than 10 minutes per ride for lack of shows.

I think it effects rides differently.

For example little kids aren’t gonna say “no Elena? Let’s do space mountain again!”

But they will go on Ariel again.

This at least partially explains why under the sea is seeing 50 mins, IMO.
There’s 3 bigger meet and greets in the vicinity and they are all closed.
This would not explain increased waits on space mountain, but haven’t those been lower?

 

[kong1802]

Bringing the facts. I agree that the lack of M&G's has an impacts, but as you stated, 3 minutes per ride is next to nothing if the throughput is 1,000 for those (i can't make the math work to get that high though, perhaps someone smarter can). If you include all the M&Gs you might get to 1,000 if you have some ridiculous short character interaction.

Well Mickey for example has 3 or 4 rooms at a time…

 

[Chip Chipperson]

There are about 29 rides in the MK.

Let's just take into account the most popular 20 of them.

If there are 1,000 people an hour absorbed into show, but not any more, then they are in the lines for those 20 rides.

That's an extra 50 people per ride.

These rides have at the minimum and average of throughputting 1,000 people per hour. So, those extra 50 people are adding 3 minutes to each ride.

So even if one says that if shows were eating 3,000 people an hour, that's still adding less than 10 minutes per ride for lack of shows.

I also seriously doubt that FoP wait times are impacted much by Nemo the Musical being closed. For starters, Nemo is a family-friendly show geared towards little kids. Families who need to fill the 30-60 minutes they'd spend on line and in the show are more likely to opt for Na'avi River Journey, the Safari, or any of the animal exhibits like Affection Station or Gorilla Falls. Even then, Animal Kingdom is still a half-day to 3/4-day park for many visitors (especially with the park not being open at night) so it's likely that those displaced guests would have already planned to ride those rides or visit those animal exhibits anyway because it's unlikely for a family to pay Disney ticket prices just to see the Nemo show (and they wouldn't visit right now anyway if that was the case). Knowing that, it's just as likely that Nemo being closed is pushing those families with little kids out of the park 30-60 minutes sooner than they would otherwise be there. So realistically, Nemo being close should have very little impact on the average wait times anywhere else in the park.

 

[drizgirl]

The parade is the only big "show" left. I know M&Gs eat some people, but nowhere near the numbers of the rides/attractions already open. That's it.

Say for Tink, with 1 room operating, each group of 4 spends 5 minutes with the characters, that is 12 groups per hour, with 50 people? Say there are 10 seperate lines, that still is less than 500 people per hour, that isn't that many people.

I don't think groups are spending anywhere near 5 minutes each with the characters.

 

[kong1802]

I think it effects rides differently.

For example little kids aren’t gonna say “no Elena? Let’s do space mountain again!”

But they will go on Ariel again.

This at least partially explains why under the sea is seeing 50 mins, IMO.
There’s 3 bigger meet and greets in the vicinity and they are all closed.
This would not explain increased waits on space mountain, but haven’t those been lower?

To update, Space mountain is showing 65 mins right now.

Same time 7/17/2019 - 110 mins.

About half now vs then...

This shows how M&G's probably are impacting the more kid friendly fantasyland rides like Under the Sea rather than the MK headliners.

 

[kong1802]

I don't think groups are spending anywhere near 5 minutes each with the characters.

2 mins tops.

But at places like silly side show, there's 2 lines, where you meet 3 characters. So 2 mins each roughly for a 6 minute experience.

Whenever we've gone between the two lines there has to be at least 100 people in there constantly.

 

[lentesta]

I don't know if he has anyone there today, but @lentesta can usually tell if a ride is operating at full capacity (he's had people literally counting the rate that people exit the attraction) and the difference between actual wait time and posted.

I'd be really surprised if FOP was not attempting to run at full capacity. We've got these actual wait times so far today at FOP:

• Actual 70 at 7:41 AM (MDE doesn't display posted waits before official park opening)
• Actual 77 at 7:46 AM
• Actual 86 at 7:54 AM
• Actual 101 at 7:58 AM
• Actual 158 / Posted 140 at 9:50 AM
• Actual 130 / Posted 180 at 11:50 AM (was posted 210 at 11:45 AM)
• Actual 121 / Posted 180 at 12:30 PM
• Actual 104 / Posted 130 at 3:20 PM

For what it's worth, today's average posted wait across all DAK attractions was 63 minutes. That's the highest day in the past year. It's not even close to peak 2019 - it's not even in the top 40 of days in 2019. The peak average wait in 2019 was around 100 minutes, so we have a ways to go before we get there. Still, the park needs more things to do.

 

[GhostHost1000]

To update, Space mountain is showing 65 mins right now.

Same time 7/17/2019 - 110 mins.

About half now vs then...

This shows how M&G's probably are impacting the more kid friendly fantasyland rides like Under the Sea rather than the MK headliners.

Weren’t the crowds in 2019 more than they are right now? If so then we aren’t comparing apples to apples

 

[TiggerDad]

New insider rumors are bouncing around that Disney is ready to offer a package of an all-day version of Express Pass for the whole family for an entire week, but because of the labor shortage, they only require in return your first born.

I’ll take that deal, but you should warn them about her work ethic. If I can hand her over before the week starts, it would save me a bundle on tickets and hotel.

 

[homerdance]

I'd be really surprised if FOP was not attempting to run at full capacity. We've got these actual wait times so far today at FOP:

• Actual 70 at 7:41 AM (MDE doesn't display posted waits before official park opening)
• Actual 77 at 7:46 AM
• Actual 86 at 7:54 AM
• Actual 101 at 7:58 AM
• Actual 158 / Posted 140 at 9:50 AM
• Actual 130 / Posted 180 at 11:50 AM (was posted 210 at 11:45 AM)
• Actual 121 / Posted 180 at 12:30 PM
• Actual 104 / Posted 130 at 3:20 PM

For what it's worth, today's average posted wait across all DAK attractions was 63 minutes. That's the highest day in the past year. It's not even close to peak 2019 - it's not even in the top 40 of days in 2019. The peak average wait in 2019 was around 100 minutes, so we have a ways to go before we get there. Still, the park needs more things to do.

Thanks!

 

[Jedijax719]

I'm not so sure people should be excited about a wait time "only" being 65, 85, 110, etc. minutes.

Look, the wait times are 80 minutes today compared to 100 minutes the same day 2 years ago (when there wasn't a pandemic). That's not a good thing.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I'd be really surprised if FOP was not attempting to run at full capacity. We've got these actual wait times so far today at FOP:

• Actual 70 at 7:41 AM (MDE doesn't display posted waits before official park opening)
• Actual 77 at 7:46 AM
• Actual 86 at 7:54 AM
• Actual 101 at 7:58 AM
• Actual 158 / Posted 140 at 9:50 AM
• Actual 130 / Posted 180 at 11:50 AM (was posted 210 at 11:45 AM)
• Actual 121 / Posted 180 at 12:30 PM
• Actual 104 / Posted 130 at 3:20 PM

For what it's worth, today's average posted wait across all DAK attractions was 63 minutes. That's the highest day in the past year. It's not even close to peak 2019 - it's not even in the top 40 of days in 2019. The peak average wait in 2019 was around 100 minutes, so we have a ways to go before we get there. Still, the park needs more things to do.

Saying there's "a ways to go" isn't accurate here. I assume your "peak average" was a standby time and not factoring in the reduced time those waiting in the Fastpass queue took to experience the attraction. The average standby wait in 2019 may have been 100 minutes, but when you factor in all those Fastpass guests that waited 15 minutes or less, that average wait time is substantially lower than 100 minutes.

Your greater point of "the park needs more things to do" is absolutely true. Pandora was wildly successful from an attendance boost, pushing DAK to the 2nd highest attendance park in Florida. It also now has the least amount of rides (and I believe least amount of ride capacity) of any of the 4 parks. The park is also heavily dominated on the left side with Africa and Pandora, it's no secret that an expansion in and/around the Dinorama area has to happen sooner rather than later. That expansion probably needs to add at least 3-4K guest per hour in ride capacity in some form.

 

[threvester]

All the meet and greets.

I think there's at least 4 big ones, right?

Pete's Silly Sideshow
Princess Fairy Tale
Town Square Theater
Enchanted Tales with Belle

Then you have Merida and the other ones around the park, not as big.

Don't the big 4 have avg 45-60 minute waits?

I dont believe MILF is open yet either

 

[lentesta]

Saying there's "a ways to go" isn't accurate here. I assume your "peak average" was a standby time and not factoring in the reduced time those waiting in the Fastpass queue took to experience the attraction. The average standby wait in 2019 may have been 100 minutes, but when you factor in all those Fastpass guests that waited 15 minutes or less, that average wait time is substantially lower than 100 minutes.

Your greater point of "the park needs more things to do" is absolutely true. Pandora was wildly successful from an attendance boost, pushing DAK to the 2nd highest attendance park in Florida. It also now has the least amount of rides (and I believe least amount of ride capacity) of any of the 4 parks. The park is also heavily dominated on the left side with Africa and Pandora, it's no secret that an expansion in and/around the Dinorama area has to happen sooner rather than later. That expansion probably needs to add at least 3-4K guest per hour in ride capacity in some form.

You have a point. If you could get a FP for FOP, your wait was probably 15-25% of the posted wait.

Given the rules around FP in some parks, and the limited availability, it's not obvious to me that most guests were able to avoid most lines. I'm sure they waited less in, say, 1 to 4 FP lines, but they surely waited more in other standby lines.

The good news is that if we get to 100% capacity before FP++ comes back, we should be able to model something close to an apples-to-apples comparison to see the impact of FP on an average guest's day.

 

[pdude81]

You have a point. If you could get a FP for FOP, your wait was probably 15-25% of the posted wait.

Given the rules around FP in some parks, and the limited availability, it's not obvious to me that most guests were able to avoid most lines. I'm sure they waited less in, say, 1 to 4 FP lines, but they surely waited more in other standby lines.

The good news is that if we get to 100% capacity before FP++ comes back, we should be able to model something close to an apples-to-apples comparison to see the impact of FP on an average guest's day.

It's got to be hard to compare regardless. Anecdotally last month it seemed like there was a higher volume of people leaving mid-day than the before times, and the waits are still brutal for the rest of the day. I wonder if they many were even truly returning in the evenings before fireworks came back. MDE would let you know everything was at least 40 minutes, so you could make an educated guess on what was best to do. And this is with almost no international guests.

You can absolutely run a comparison on average waits for someone who was willing to stay in the park all day in both scenarios, but I guess what I'm saying is that I think some people are getting frustrated and just walking out early now. I don't know how to figure out whether or not that's notably more than in 2019.