FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

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WannaGoNow

Active Member
pdude81 said:
It's got to be hard to compare regardless. Anecdotally last month it seemed like there was a higher volume of people leaving mid-day than the before times, and the waits are still brutal for the rest of the day. I wonder if they many were even truly returning in the evenings before fireworks came back. MDE would let you know everything was at least 40 minutes, so you could make an educated guess on what was best to do. And this is with almost no international guests.

You can absolutely run a comparison on average waits for someone who was willing to stay in the park all day in both scenarios, but I guess what I'm saying is that I think some people are getting frustrated and just walking out early now. I don't know how to figure out whether or not that's notably more than in 2019.
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What time of year in the before times?

It’s my understanding from reading reports from people currently in the parks that the heat index has been brutal this summer, plus they’ve had some persistent rain. Weather also causes people to leave the parks midday.

Also, memory is selective. We tend to remember the good (we walked on 7DMT at park closing!) and block out the bad (oh, right, we did wait 110 minutes for Soarin’. Forgot about that for a good reason).
 
pdude81

pdude81

Well-Known Member
WannaGoNow said:
What time of year in the before times?

It’s my understanding from reading reports from people currently in the parks that the heat index has been brutal this summer, plus they’ve had some persistent rain. Weather also causes people to leave the parks midday.

Also, memory is selective. We tend to remember the good (we walked on 7DMT at park closing!) and block out the bad (oh, right, we did wait 110 minutes for Soarin’. Forgot about that for a good reason).
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This is a fair point. My usual comparison point is mid August. I found late June somewhat less brutal in both heat and humidity but the weather patterns were definitely different. That was an extra trip though and we'll be back next month for a more straight line comparison.

I've always had to work hard in planning and analyzing wait times versus what FP were available to have a really good experience in WDW. So I'm used to being on my phone a lot checking what we should go to next. And what I'm seeing in terms of numbers are the headliners with slightly shorter waits, but the other rides we thought were artificially propped up by fastpass having longer waits even without it.

Unquestionably the biggest issue is that everything is not open, but my anecdotal comparison is based on my surprise with the volume in guests leaving in both times. 8/2019 I was also surprised at how many people were leaving the park, and assumed it was mostly people taking pool or nap breaks. 6/2021 the net outflow seemed noticeably larger, and given that there are less overall people in the park it made more of an impact on me. Certainly my state of mind at the time was different for each of these trips, but I'll say that after my most recent one I've gone from a park commando strategy to a rope drop and bail strategy. I'm hopeful that the ride waits will stop drop off in the evenings now that fireworks are back, so that maybe we can get in a few attractions in the evening. Otherwise I guess it's time to find out whether these resorts are actually worth the money we pay for them.
 
mikejs78

mikejs78

Premium Member
lentesta said:
You have a point. If you could get a FP for FOP, your wait was probably 15-25% of the posted wait.

Given the rules around FP in some parks, and the limited availability, it's not obvious to me that most guests were able to avoid most lines. I'm sure they waited less in, say, 1 to 4 FP lines, but they surely waited more in other standby lines.

The good news is that if we get to 100% capacity before FP++ comes back, we should be able to model something close to an apples-to-apples comparison to see the impact of FP on an average guest's day.
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Most guests aren't able to avoid most lines, but given that 70-80% of all riders of any given ride are FP, the majority of people going on attractions are FP. Given that at AK, FoP and Navi are the two tier ones, and FPs for other attractions are pretty readily available, one could at least calculate the average wait time (factoring FP at a 75/25 split and making assumptions about FP wait time) and compare year over year.... I'd even think you could calculate average wait time in a day for certain scenarios. I.e. no FP now vs someone who has FoP + Everest + Lion King or someone who has FoP + Everest + Safari. Of course not a substitute for real data but you could certainly get approximations....
 
RSoxNo1

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
lentesta said:
You have a point. If you could get a FP for FOP, your wait was probably 15-25% of the posted wait.

Given the rules around FP in some parks, and the limited availability, it's not obvious to me that most guests were able to avoid most lines. I'm sure they waited less in, say, 1 to 4 FP lines, but they surely waited more in other standby lines.

The good news is that if we get to 100% capacity before FP++ comes back, we should be able to model something close to an apples-to-apples comparison to see the impact of FP on an average guest's day.
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Do you have statistically significant data for how long people waited in the Fastpass line to truly model that?
 
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FantasiaMickey2000

Well-Known Member
Jeff4272 said:
Looks like this is off to an awesome start! Cant wait for this at WDW! Bring on paid FP!

Like i said, be careful what you wish for FP+ haters..........

https:///2021/07/stand-by-pass-crowds-ad1/
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I just checked the wait times of the top 5 wait times at Hollywood Studios and it’s a combined 7 hours and 5 minutes. Add in walking times and eating meals and you are looking at doing 5 attractions in one day with your $140 ticket. And we aren’t even at October crowds yet. The 50th anniversary wait times are going to be UGLY. I should seriously cancel my trip.
 
DisneyDodo

DisneyDodo

Well-Known Member
mikejs78 said:
Most guests aren't able to avoid most lines, but given that 70-80% of all riders of any given ride are FP, the majority of people going on attractions are FP. Given that at AK, FoP and Navi are the two tier ones, and FPs for other attractions are pretty readily available, one could at least calculate the average wait time (factoring FP at a 75/25 split and making assumptions about FP wait time) and compare year over year.... I'd even think you could calculate average wait time in a day for certain scenarios. I.e. no FP now vs someone who has FoP + Everest + Lion King or someone who has FoP + Everest + Safari. Of course not a substitute for real data but you could certainly get approximations....
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Where are you getting the 70-80% estimate from? I don't know for sure, but that sounds very off to me - I was under the impression that it was closer to 50-50
 
Jeff4272

Jeff4272

Well-Known Member
FantasiaMickey2000 said:
I just checked the wait times of the top 5 wait times at Hollywood Studios and it’s a combined 7 hours and 5 minutes. Add in walking times and eating meals and you are looking at doing 5 attractions in one day with your $140 ticket. And we aren’t even at October crowds yet. The 50th anniversary wait times are going to be UGLY. I should seriously cancel my trip.
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I cant for the life of me figure out why WDW is not rolling out whatever the new FP service is going to be and "testing" it with these summer crowds in case it needs to tweak it

I would never go in October unless i had FP or VIP tour........You will be lucky to get on 3 rides and forget about getting a dining reservation
 
aliceismad

aliceismad

Well-Known Member
Jeff4272 said:
Looks like this is off to an awesome start! Cant wait for this at WDW! Bring on paid FP!
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Was this unexpected? Did anyone actually think that people would understand the concept of the standby system on the first day? People are dumb and confused by change.
 
D

dreday3

Well-Known Member
Jeff4272 said:
I cant for the life of me figure out why WDW is not rolling out whatever the new FP service is going to be and "testing" it with these summer crowds in case it needs to tweak it

I would never go in October unless i had FP or VIP tour........You will be lucky to get on 3 rides and forget about getting a dining reservation
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Oh my god. It's not going to be that bad.
 
pdude81

pdude81

Well-Known Member
DisneyDodo said:
Where are you getting the 70-80% estimate from? I don't know for sure, but that sounds very off to me - I was under the impression that it was closer to 50-50
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I've seen reliable posters say the ratio was set at 80:20. But if nobody is in the FP line at a given time they would send more from standy.
 
D

dreday3

Well-Known Member
Jeff4272 said:
To be determined......
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I'll let you know, I'll be there at the end of October having a blast!

(make dinner reservations at Disney Springs through Open Table - we already got Wine Bar George that way and called Boathouse directly! Two down, two to go. Planning less sit downs this trip and more lounges and food/wine booths)
 
Jeff4272

Jeff4272

Well-Known Member
dreday3 said:
I'll let you know, I'll be there at the end of October having a blast!

(make dinner reservations at Disney Springs through Open Table - we already got Wine Bar George that way and called Boathouse directly!)
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Would love a trip report............Dont see how its not overcrowded and long lines.......

I hope you have a good trip, it just seems you will need to have a lot of patience
 
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