FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[Trauma]

Cannibalization of other parks would decrease the margins. You'd spend billions of dollars on another park to only get a fractional increase in guests to the property.

And the bottleneck will always be MK. People will want that traditional Disney experience, and few would be willing to make a trip to Florida and NOT get to visit Magic Kingdom. End result: you would still have over crowding issues at MK, severe drop offs in attendance at EPCOT and AK, and a whole new park you would need to constantly be pumping money into to keep running.

Maybe a third Disney resort in the US would work, but in competition to Disneyland and WDW.... it would be a tough sell.

So your saying if Epcot and Ak had world class attractions like flight of passage attendance drop would still be massive?

I’m not saying this to be argumentative I’m just not sure how it would play out.

Just because there is a 5th gate doesn’t mean I don’t want to ride my favorite attractions elsewhere.

Heck I would be willing to stay longer and spend even more.

I guess the average guest is not as Disney crazed as me and would just skip stuff.

 

[kong1802]

Not really. You can't compare July 8 2021 and July 8 2019 as if they were the same. They are not. July 8 2019 was a CL9 day at AK. Today is predicted by Touring Plans to be a CL6. Less people, lower crowds. Yet FoP still has had over 100 minute wait most of the day, all without FP.

TP's last few CL predictions were on the high side and AK has been posting a CL3 all week (though that could be because of Elsa). We will see what today actually was when TP posts their actuals tomorrow.

Besides, I was told the standby lines just *flew* without FP.

Boom, try again.



That has always been the case. You can see the difference in historical posted vs reported actuals showing inflation's throughout TP's historical data.

You started by trying to compare them....

Also, didn't AK have more rides/shows running in July 2019 than they do today?

We could go on for days about the differences between the two dates.

Fact is, lines are in fact shorter at FOP and Navi without FP today compared with FP in 2019, despite what you posted.

Boom.

 

[el_super]

So your saying if Epcot and Ak had world class attractions like flight of passage attendance drop would still be massive?

I’m not saying this to be argumentative I’m just not sure how it would play out.

Just because there is a 5th gate doesn’t mean I don’t want to ride my favorite attractions elsewhere.

Heck I would be willing to stay longer and spend even more.

I guess the average guest is not as Disney crazed as me and would just skip stuff.

That would be the theory. Vacation time is limited and only Disney knows if they are hitting a wall with Length of Stay. If people are already staying 7 to 10 days, there may not be any room for growth there and people would have to start cutting back.

That said, I could be wrong and it's possible if they built a good enough park, they could convince people to give up a second or third day at Magic Kingdom in favor of the new park. That would help reduce wait times at MK, but Disney would still be out money in the formula.

If your expectation is typical though: that you will still visit every park on every visit, no number of new parks would ever reduce the overall crowding situation.

 

[flynnibus]

Please keep in mind that a 5th theme park is in the RCID's 2020 Comprehensive Plan

Come on.. you know better than that.

Land use planning and designation is not the same as corporate long range plans. RCID's 2020 plan does not call for new theme parks, but simply designates what areas are SUITABLE and they try to define the limits of what the RCID managed services should target. RCID's land use model is not predicated on "darn, walkways at MK are getting tight!"

 

[KCheatle]

The more I think about it, the more I see Disney continuing to offer some type of free system. Over the years, they have demonstrated their desire to keep tabs on people and crowding in the parks and hotels. They like to be able to follow you on your phone. They like you to check in before you arrive. They like you to have your dining and FPs booked well in advance so they know where you'll be on any given day at any given time. They now like to have you book park passes so they know the numbers in advance of the day. They can somewhat track people with mobile order now, but not as frequently as they could with FP, and they can't control it in advance (e.g., you don't put your mobile order in until that day whereas with FP+ they knew the crowd schedule for attractions 60 days in advance). The only way they will keep getting that amount of data that far in advance is with a free option.

I have no doubt they will offer an upgraded paid option or options. It was experimented with club level guests, and worked out. It was really a win-win for them because Disney had 90 days to predict crowding at parks and attractions and people paid them to give them the data they wanted.

 

[MrPromey]

The point is like any other theme park out there Disney could have made you pay an additional fee and inflate their prices all along from the beginning of Fastpass.

That's a pretty bold assumption considering Disney sits in an entirely unique position in the marketplace when it comes to demand and pricing.

Also, if we want to compare apples to apples, let's look at what their competition has added in attractions within the last 20 years to create more value for their guests coming into their parks to go along with those price increases.

We can start with Universal down the road if you like... Heck, even lowly Legoland Florida or Busch Gardens.

My point is they decided to make Fastpass and then Fastpass+ a selling point for their product. For the money spent on FP+ each park could have gotten at least one new e-ticket. Depending on the estimates for FP+ rollout that you want to believe, possibly two or more per park.

Why did they decided to spend their money on FP+, instead, do you think?

If they were, as you said doing us a "favor" wouldn't new quality stuff to do have been the better way to go?

Only a ten year old or someone who is beyond reason would think they spent between 1-2 billion dollars (depending on the estimate you want to believe) on rolling out FP+ for (to use your wording) "free" out of the goodness of their hearts as a gift to their guests so they could feel "privileged" to pay the inflated prices to stay on their property and and the inflated prices they offer for everything else.

If we want to do comparisons, Disney charges more than everyone else for their base experiences, too. They're lines tend to be longer, and any paid program that compares to others would need to either be priced way higher for it to be effective (not "we are premium" higher but "we'll make you question your choices" higher) or they would have to go the confusopoly route to make comparisons to other's products challenging.

They know all this which is why it's taken them so long to get here, if they do in fact decide to pull the trigger in Florida.

Based on Paris, it looks like they're betting on the confusopoly.*

For instance, Disney can't mimic what Universal does because while Universal sells their express pass at a high price, most people that use it get it included "for free" for their entire party with their hotel rooms.

They're using that high retail price that they just made up to enhance the perceived value of a stay at their resorts where it is included for, as too many like to say, "free" - not to sell it to day guests, although they're happy to take your money if you want to spend it that way.**

Disney has too many rooms, even at just the deluxe level to pull this off without causing a real problem in their standby lines.

Maybe if they offered more attractions per park than they do but it it would still be a struggle.***

I don't mean to be harsh to you but it's the belief that Disney is ever giving us a "privilege", doing us a "favor", or providing anything for "free" that gives them license to push and squeeze their fans however they want and not even have to worry about defending their decisions because someone out there is happy to do it for them, and pay through the nose for that "privilege" in the process.


*Sorry, Scott Adams coined that phrase back before it seemed like he totally lost his mind.

**Think I'm full of it? Think I'm dreaming this stuff up and tilting at windmills? It's a common marketing tactic in behavioral economics that most consumers aren't aware of. If you'd like to learn more and see actual case studies on it, check out this book that teaches it. Some of the examples like comparing mobile text messages to mobile email are a little dated now but the lessons that you too can apply to get more money out of your customers is still very much relevant.

***Anyone remember all the previous near-walk-on attractions that suddenly got Fastpass when FP+ rolled out? Most of us at the time were like "why did they do that? Spaceship Earth doesn't need Fastpass." and for 20 years, it didn't. Fastforward to today (well pre-pandemic when attendance wasn't capped and FP+ was running) and you see that standby queue completely full. What changed to cause this? It wasn't Spaceship Earth.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Let me just add a little historical context here...

Back in 1955, when Disneyland opened, every single ride had a cash admission. Most of the rides ranged from 10¢ to 25¢ per ride (on top of the $1 admission). A few months into the park being opened, they noticed that the biggest attractions were drawing most of the crowds (and money) and the smaller attractions were struggling. Disneyland's Publicity dept came up with the idea of offering "Ticket Books" that would bundle big ticket attractions with small attractions for a combined fee. For $2.50 you got admission to the park and 8 attractions. People had an incentive then, to ride the smaller attractions they already paid for, and thought they were getting a discount on.

The idea of moving people and capacity around is as old as the parks themselves. Whatever new evolution comes, it will still be aligned with the same goals that those silly coupon books made their debut.

The more obvious, and seemingly unpopular option would be to just raise prices until demand fell and attraction wait times were more in line with where they should be. Disney doesn't do this because they are terrified of alienating too many potential customers, even if they are dealing with parks and facilities that would have been torn down and replaced now if it was any other form of infrastructure.

Yes, this goes back to the "Why not charge $1000 per day for admission?" question, a topic that has been discussed on these threads more times than I care to remember.

With tens-of-millions visiting WDW every year, and with one of the strongest brand names in the World, exactly what does charging $1000 per day solve?

One of the problems with "just raise prices until demand fell and attraction wait times were more in line with where they should be" is that it alienates hundreds-of-millions of Disney fans and perhaps irreparably damages the brand across all business segments. With such a move, Disney would not be the first conglomerate to destroy itself by showing, at best, indifference and, at worst, contempt for its customers.

Disney's bread-and-butter is not the super-rich. Yes, Disney needs to appeal to this class. But Disney's core audience are the masses who just want some fun in their lives. They are not asking for much. Just a vacation that they can afford.

Since you brought up the 1955 Disneyland opening when admission was $1, that translates to about $10 today. I'm sure everyone would be onboard with Premier Access if WDW admission was $10.

Even when WDW opened in 1971 and up to the change to an all-inclusive ticket in 1982, Magic Kingdom admission was today's equivalent of $24.

The issue here is not just that corporate Disney wants to charge for something that previously was included in the price of admission. It's that the price of admission starts at $109 and only goes up from there. A $109 ticket is supposed to be all-inclusive. A $109 is supposed to include everything. Corporate Disney has forgotten that.

People on these threads who remember me from years ago might recall the many charts I posted to show how the cost of a WDW vacation has grown oppressively faster than people's ability to pay for it. Here's just one of them:

This chart hasn't been updated in a few years but it gets the point across. The cost of a WDW vacation is spiraling out of control.

Premier Access is just another step in making WDW less affordable.

 

[flynnibus]

It's like paying $40,000 for a fully equipped car, then when you get it home, the dealership comes and takes the air conditioner back. Sure, you've still got the stereo, the cruise control, all the other electronic gadgets, but do you feel the same about your car without the air conditioner? And how many people will you recommend to that dealership to buy their $40,000 car ? Will you ever go back to that dealership for another car ?

That is ... just a horrible analogy.

No one is getting bait and switched... no one is getting something taken out of their possession.

My god, please try harder.

 

[EeyoreFan#24]

Disney probably has a Facilities Master Plan for growth and new/redevelopment of existing infrastructure. If it’s like most companies I’ve seen however, it looks great on paper, but 10 years into the “plan” it looks nothing like what was thought at the time. Some made it, some didnt, variation of something in a different spot, things that weren’t even on the plan came into existence, etc. Nothing more than a snapshot into the mind of the execs who designed it. Rarely do these make it down to people below c-suite and real estate leaders.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Cannibalization of other parks would decrease the margins. You'd spend billions of dollars on another park to only get a fractional increase in guests to the property.

And if corporate Disney took this attitude in the 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s, WDW would consist of the Magic Kingdom, Disney Springs, and a bunch of timeshares.

Corporate leadership should have long-term vision. Today's TWDC is cashing in on the vision of generations past.

Premier Access is yet another example of Disney's corporate leadership in recent years being more focused on next year's stock options than the health of the company.

 

[Flynnwriter]

I will pay premium prices for premium products and experiences. I will not be ripped off and nickel and dimed for paying to go the front of the line per ride after already paying $1000s for my trip. If Disney goes ahead with this it’s time to demand Bob Chapek be replaced and make sure the company understands we will pay, but not be used and abused. I like staying at the Four Seasons and understand the iced tea is $9. If they suddenly added a $20 fee to have your iced tea delivered fast poolside I would be enraged.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Adding attractions will not solve the problem. The parks are exceeding their comfort levels, even if they are not technically full. Beyond the attractions themselves, walkways, restaurants, shops, bus stations, and bathrooms are operating at their limits.

The base issue is that WDW has not opened a theme park in 23 years. Prior to this, the longest gap was 11 years. Even divided among the four theme parks, attendance is the highest it's ever been.

Premier Access is being implemented because corporate Disney created a problem they don't want to fix.

View attachment 570532

Those parks aren’t near space “capacity”…it’s the attractions - things that get people off the paths - that matter.

now…did the mgm redesign ultimately do nothing? Yes…mistake

not adding to dak? Yes

keeping the useless speedway and shoving tron into the footprint? Yeah…that too:

all “space” mistakes…to say nothing of Epcot

 

[dovetail65]

View attachment 570528

Oh my gosh, dont tell a person to calm down, I am very calm. If I was younger had more energy I might do what the young kids do now, but instead of just make a youtube video actually create havoc Disney might hear.

This is the only place I have to express my thoughts on Disney stuff, so please dont tell anyone calm down, dont tell me to calm down you dont know me, my life. I actually thought in my head as I typed that post that someone would say something like this, I posted over the top anyhow, if not here, where?

You could of taken the time and instead of telling me to calm down to simply agree or disagree, but you had to take issue with how I expressed my dissatisfaction at this Paris set up and my concern it might get to WDW in the same form. You could of said nothing at all, but telling someone to calm down in this setting is saying shut up, or hey type using words I like, It's rude.

This is one reason many people here just stop posting they get flustered up upset at responses to their thoughts. . The more a person loves Disney or are passionate about Disney the more likely they are going to get bashed here or told it is not a big deal who cares or to calm down on these forums. It should not be that way not here, not on a Disney forum. I could ask why don't you care enough? Why are you so darn calm about it?? Just because this is is out of our control doesn't mean we can not use our words to try to get Disney to hear and does not mean these weird things Disney is doing will not make us feel a certain way.


There was no reason to post in response to my post if you had nothing to constructive to say, I feel like I am lecturing my kids on why it's rude to say certain things. Whatever.

 

[pdude81]

Who thinks its possible that WDW will still offer a limited number of free fast passes for those staying on property? I hope they will and base it on level of resort, either 1,2 and 3, for value to deluxe. or even better to encourage upgrades 2, 3 and 4. Also they could offer 1, 2 or 3 to annual passholder per day based on level of annual pass. Those who spend all their money on property should be treated better than those offsite guests and annual passholders should be treated better than daily customers. In an ideal world Disney should offer Annual Passholders with an annual pass an additional fast pass for staying on property, so a person staying at a Deluxed resort would get 4 or 5. Give better service to those spending more money.

I think it's possible, but I don't think there's any way they give out 3 for deluxe. They seem to have already announce their plussing for Deluxe Resorts/Villas with the extended evening hours. I can see a world where they either:

1. Give 1 FP per ticket/park pass and 2 if you are an on-site guest.
2. Give 1 FP per ticket/park pass and that's it.
3. Give 1 FP per ticket/park pass if an on-site guest

More of less I'm banking on #2, as they have announced the extra magic minutes in the morning for on-site already. The next most likely to me is #3, and then it's a tie for me between #1 and getting nothing at all with base ticket.

 

[RobbinsDad]

The more I think about it, the more I see Disney continuing to offer some type of free system.

That's the Standby Pass part, right?

 

[ParentsOf4]

Disney probably has a Facilities Master Plan for growth and new/redevelopment of existing infrastructure. If it’s like most companies I’ve seen however, it looks great on paper, but 10 years into the “plan” it looks nothing like what was thought at the time. Some made it, some didnt, variation of something in a different spot, things that weren’t even on the plan came into existence, etc. Nothing more than a snapshot into the mind of the execs who designed it. Rarely do these make it down to people below c-suite and real estate leaders.

FYI, the Reedy Creek Improvement District publishes a "Comprehensive Plan" every 10 years.

https://www.rcid.org/doing-business/planning-development/2020-comp-plan/

This is not what they will do, only what's possible.

I believe what you are referring to is a corporate strategy, which will be proprietary. Those with access to this typically have NDAs that would land them in a lot of hot water if they ever leaked it.

Some of Walt Disney Productions (now The Walt Disney Company) early annual reports make for interesting reading. Disney used to be much more open with the public about its plans, many of which never came to be.

Reportedly, the replacement for FP+ (i.e. Premier Access) has been part of the corporate plan for years.

 

[Incomudro]

Let me just add a little historical context here...

Back in 1955, when Disneyland opened, every single ride had a cash admission. Most of the rides ranged from 10¢ to 25¢ per ride (on top of the $1 admission). A few months into the park being opened, they noticed that the biggest attractions were drawing most of the crowds (and money) and the smaller attractions were struggling. Disneyland's Publicity dept came up with the idea of offering "Ticket Books" that would bundle big ticket attractions with small attractions for a combined fee. For $2.50 you got admission to the park and 8 attractions. People had an incentive then, to ride the smaller attractions they already paid for, and thought they were getting a discount on.

The idea of moving people and capacity around is as old as the parks themselves. Whatever new evolution comes, it will still be aligned with the same goals that those silly coupon books made their debut.

The more obvious, and seemingly unpopular option would be to just raise prices until demand fell and attraction wait times were more in line with where they should be. Disney doesn't do this because they are terrified of alienating too many potential customers, even if they are dealing with parks and facilities that would have been torn down and replaced now if it was any other form of infrastructure.

Yes, but even adjusted for inflation and the much higher wages of today - that ticket book pricing was nothing compared to what we may be forced to pay for.
We are talking big bucks here by any measure.
Prices that will literally price families with children out, except for those with ample disposable income, and a willingness to dispose of it.

 

[Waters Back Side]

That's the Standby Pass part, right?

Yes. But we are not discussing DLP and and their 8 resorts and 2 theme parks and Standby Pass. We are talking about 32 resorts, 4 theme parks in WDW. They cannot operate during high peak times with a line management system that has a free component that only involves waiting 60 to 80 minutes on every line.

Nor can they not offer resort guests some free rides. They will LOSE money overall if they remove incentives for resort guests and they stop coming. And no matter what you, me or anyone thinks there are A BOATLOAD of people that come annually during busy weeks. Not just once in 3 years or a lifetime. Once a year.

 

[Greg in TN]

That is ... just a horrible analogy.

No one is getting bait and switched... no one is getting something taken out of their possession.

My god, please try harder.

"Bait & switch?" Maybe not, but I think the feeling is going to be the same as for the people who want air conditioning when they're considering where to purchase their next car .......

 

[GhostHost1000]

The more I think about it, the more I see Disney continuing to offer some type of free system. Over the years, they have demonstrated their desire to keep tabs on people and crowding in the parks and hotels. They like to be able to follow you on your phone. They like you to check in before you arrive. They like you to have your dining and FPs booked well in advance so they know where you'll be on any given day at any given time. They now like to have you book park passes so they know the numbers in advance of the day. They can somewhat track people with mobile order now, but not as frequently as they could with FP, and they can't control it in advance (e.g., you don't put your mobile order in until that day whereas with FP+ they knew the crowd schedule for attractions 60 days in advance). The only way they will keep getting that amount of data that far in advance is with a free option.

I have no doubt they will offer an upgraded paid option or options. It was experimented with club level guests, and worked out. It was really a win-win for them because Disney had 90 days to predict crowding at parks and attractions and people paid them to give them the data they wanted.

Free fastpasses for carousel of progress maybe