FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Dang… do your co-workers ever take a non-Disney vacation?!?!? 100% of your co-workers go to WDW at least every other year??!?

Only 3 of my co-workers have ever been to WDW, only 1 has been there more than once.

They likely take 2-3 vacations a year. But hard to fit that in between shifts at the steel mill and between tackle football practices

 

[Supertech65]

80% of my co-workers go once a year or more often, the others go every other year. Roughly 35% of my friends, and probably 40-50% of my family, yes.

I just returned from a trip and have another planned in November.
My son went to WDW 3 times this year.

Same here More than half of my co-workers go to Disney at least once to twice a year. I go every year with the exception of last year but making up for it by going three times this year (Feb, May and again this Dec) Booked for next October too.

 

[Andrew M]

Prepare to be shocked.

those “deluxe” are tied - except for 1 - to several hundred DVC rooms (minimum) each…And DVC is not getting free monetized “assets”

But couldn't they just use the 'cash' portion of the resorts, the actual Deluxe rooms vs Deluxe Villas?

Besides aren't they already doing that with the evening extra magic hours coming in October for Deluxe and Deluxe Villa guests? If they could charge $160 for a 3 hour party, I'd imagine 2 hours extra in the park certainly has some sort of value to it.

 

[IanDLBZF]

Ah ok

I am sure they will work using contactless payments

Not all credit/debit cards are contactless. Best they'll be adding magnetic and EMV readers too.

 

[havoc315]

I think the 55,000,000 clicks include multiple visits per guest, no?

That’s how WDW states their annual attendance. I don’t know how many are “unique” visitors.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m not sure where I said there was anything learned. I was simply answering the question posed about why the wait with standby pass wouldn‘t just be 2 hours.

The reality is that ignoring the paid option standby pass isn’t much different than traditional fast pass except that there is no standby option. You have to come back later. So in a pre-FP+ analogy it’s basically a system where 100% of availability is allocated to FP and zero to standby. When you layer in the paid option they have to hold back X% of capacity to offer it to people willing to pay. So for example if 10% is held back and that equals 100 riders in an hour they charge $10 to skip the line but once 20 people buy it goes up to $15 and so on. They should in theory never run out because like airline pricing the last few spots get prices so outrageous nobody is willing to pay.

So to answer your question I have no idea what people do. Maybe that pushes wait times way up on less popular rides or the few attractions left without FP. Maybe people leave and go back to resorts or pools more often. Disney would like you to go into the shops and spend money or buy a snack. Obviously increasing ride capacity by adding rides would make the system work better but that won’t happen at a fast enough pace. I think it may further differentiate the experience between less busy times and more busy times spreading crowds out even more over the calendar.

I think plus discouraged people from going in the standby lines…because they were ground to a halt by the computer…

would that happen if you reset the dial and “retrain” people from the 3 a day model??

 

[pdude81]

Even just a single free one per day would be a huge carrot, although it would likely not optimize the system as they would want. Though if it does have dynamic pricing, this would certainly increase the cost of DPA for the headliners in each park that are the big must-rides.

Though even that would cause a big uproar (as most everyone would see they go from 3 free FP+ to 1).

I think giving one for free tempts people to want to pay the upcharge.

I also think we should be very careful talking about dynamic pricing as if it were an acceptable situation. I'm ok with tiered pricing but dynamic pricing I don't think I could deal with. There is a limit to how much Kool Aid I can drink.

So if they want to charge $20 for SDMT, Tron, Splash, and then 10 for Buzz or Pirates, go for it. But if too many people buy passes on 10/1 and they want to charge $50 to ride the Haunted mansion.... forget it. Everybody has their own line in the sand.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

That’s how WDW states their annual attendance. I don’t know how many are “unique” visitors.

I would guarentee that it is total clicks in a park (maybe minus park-hoppers, they may be counted where they start the day). If you take an average of 4 park days/trip (may be less, may be more), that is about 13.75m guests total, which sounds reasonable. Some of those are APs or other day guests just spending a day in the park and not necessarily taking a specific Disney vacation.

 

[iowamomof4]

That’s how WDW states their annual attendance. I don’t know how many are “unique” visitors.

I've always read that guests are counted once/day at the first park they enter. So a guest who goes for 4 days and starts each day at a different park would count as one visit to MK, AK, DHS, and Epcot, even if they park hopped to a different park later that day.

Furthermore, a guest who takes an 8-day trip and goes to each park on two different days would count as 2 clicks at each park. If that guest lived in Orlando or the surrounding area, they will count as a "click" each day they visit a park.

I'm sure someone will let me know if I'm misinformed.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not all credit/debit cards are contactless. Best they'll be adding magnetic and EMV readers too.

Don’t expect kiosk infrastructure to be invested in. App based is the way if they world…don’t think they’ll use higher overhead methods when Apple Pay is common place

That’s how WDW states their annual attendance. I don’t know how many are “unique” visitors.

It’s traditionally been first click…and remember that Disney doesn’t state their attendance specifically. Those are analyst figures. The best way to tell is to to take their vaunted “per guest spending” and try to reverse engineer the financial figures.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

I think giving one for free tempts people to want to pay the upcharge.

I also think we should be very careful talking about dynamic pricing as if it were an acceptable situation. I'm ok with tiered pricing but dynamic pricing I don't think I could deal with. There is a limit to how much Kool Aid I can drink.

So if they want to charge $20 for SDMT, Tron, Splash, and then 10 for Buzz or Pirates, go for it. But if too many people buy passes on 10/1 and they want to charge $50 to ride the Haunted mansion.... forget it. Everybody has their own line in the sand.

Yeah I will not being paying out the wazoo for a pass (to each their own on what level constitutes unacceptable, which may be anything above $0). I could see situations where I would buy a pass, but it will likely just have to be something I budget in and put a cap on for the whole trip. I definitely understand how difficult it would be for families as the cost gets hard to swallow when you factor in 3 or more people, as opposed to someone like me where it is just myself and my wife.

 

[havoc315]

Frequent is not the same as “every year”…the old internal marker was 3 years.

Then I misunderstood your quote. You said:
“50% or more are loosely “frequenters”. Every day…every year”

So I thought you were saying 50% go every year.

Now, in the context of why this is part of this discussion:
Using “frequent” as people who go every 3 years—

So a “frequent” 40-year-old has done about 13 trips since 1981.

1981-1999: No FP system, for the first 6 trips.
1999-2013– paper FPs, so about 4-5 trips with paper FP.

2013-early 2020, FP+— so 2 trips with FP+

early 2020-present: no FP, 0-1 trips.

So the idea that most guests are wedded to FP+ is just incorrect.
First time visitors don’t even know it.

A frequent visitor who comes every 3 years — has likely used FP+ for only 2 of their last 13 trips.

but far more than you believe are there multiple times or at least every year. And it’s not just Americans. You have 15-20% international…maybe 10%+ Florida each day…so that cuts into your pool.


of course there are a lot of 1 timers…but you think 49% isn’t a big enough number to cover.

disney world isn’t cheap. It’s for the “haves”…more than ever.

the people that saved went once - like the 80’s - are dwindling. They don’t get paid enough…the factory is closed.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But couldn't they just use the 'cash' portion of the resorts, the actual Deluxe rooms vs Deluxe Villas?

Besides aren't they already doing that with the evening extra magic hours coming in October for Deluxe and Deluxe Villa guests? If they could charge $160 for a 3 hour party, I'd imagine 2 hours extra in the park certainly has some sort of value to it.

So you want them to p!ss off the people staying in the same hotels that paid you a lump sum and a yearly operational stipend?

…it could work?

 

[GoofGoof]

I think plus discouraged people from going in the standby lines…because they were ground to a halt by the computer…

would that happen if you reset the dial and “retrain” people from the 3 a day model??

I don’t disagree. I know people who went to WDW during moderate busy time and did their 3 FPs a day and that’s all. Decided it wasn’t worth waiting in a line.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Then I misunderstood your quote. You said:
“50% or more are loosely “frequenters”. Every day…every year”

So I thought you were saying 50% go every year.

Now, in the context of why this is part of this discussion:
Using “frequent” as people who go every 3 years—

So a “frequent” 40-year-old has done about 13 trips since 1981.

1981-1999: No FP system, for the first 6 trips.
1999-2013– paper FPs, so about 4-5 trips with paper FP.

2013-early 2020, FP+— so 2 trips with FP+

early 2020-present: no FP, 0-1 trips.

So the idea that most guests are wedded to FP+ is just incorrect.
First time visitors don’t even know it.

A frequent visitor who comes every 3 years — has likely used FP+ for only 2 of their last 13 trips.

Sorry I meant…every day about 50% (my math is dated…but I can tell you it was that awhile back) is what they termed a “frequent” guest. That was tracked at that time at 3 years. Obviously that’s heavily weighted by APs and DVC…but still.

but let’s look at the “other” end. Disney prices are rising at a 100% clip every 10-15 years at this rate…

so there are more “one timers” earning more cash to do that compare to 2000? More money in the hands of more people!?

damn…’Merica is doing great. I stand corrected.

 

[ifan]

I don't think Disney will bring this exact system to WDW but if they did bring something similar over, the devil would be in the details and the implementation. I could either love it or hate it.

Some pros:

1) Spontaneity returns. I despise searching for FP in advance of a trip. it makes it less of a vacation. I'd enjoy figuring out what I'm doing same-day.
2) A middle tier level of add-ons without having to jump up to VIP tours or skip-the-line group tours. Maybe I'd be willing to spend 200 extra but not 500-5000 extra.

I'd be curious to know if there would be package deals or special offers for deluxe guests.

Contrary to most on this board, I do not mind Disney becoming more expensive in certain areas. My issue is when they increase the pricing while decreasing the quality of offerings. Worse food for a higher price. Busier for a costlier ticket. I do not mind paying more for a premium experience, and I know many others feel the same way. If Disney wants to continue to increase revenue per visitor, I hope they don't use just financial engineering, but also focus on providing a better product. I don't mind going less often and paying more per visit, but only if the product is superior.

 

[sup]

not a good idea to pay 10 to 18 dollars a ride. Then is lines to long for stand by you may not get to ride at all??? Fastpass for kids 7 and under and one adult is a good idea. Little ones are tall enough for space mountain or Yeti anyway. Wouldn't take a 6 yr on areosmith coaster or tower of terror. Short folk and younger don't ride the biggies.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

So families with young children now have to Uber to Disney after landing (possibly very late at night), then pay hundreds of dollars more to avoid sitting in a 1-2 hour line with their impatient kids?

If they do this it will most definitely impact attendance. Fast pass and magical express were half the reason many of my friends went. It just makes the trip much easier when you have little ones.

Disney will continue to sink in the vacation rankings, and rightfully so.

 

[Andrew M]

So you want them to p!ss off the people staying in the same hotels that paid you a lump sum and a yearly operational stipend?

…it could work?

haha I mean theoretically all they bought was a timeshare.

I've seriously looked into buying a few times, but time and time again I keep seeing 'don't buy for the perks, because they can change at any moment', and in the end it just doesn't make financial sense for us without the discounted AP tickets.

 

[monothingie]

Well Disney is certainly getting roasted on social media, and this is from the fans only reacts. Just waiting to see how badly they get ratio'd when something official comes out and generates waves of negative attention.

They'd better pay their social media influencers extra when that happens.

But that won't change anything. Full speed ahead I guess.