FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[G00fyDad]

I genuinely don't understand. People here are telling you actual facts and you're just denying them.

And I have never in all the years I've gone to Disney watched 80 people walk past 20. Ever. I don't even know anybody who has seen that. It is completely beside the point anyway. This thread is about whether they're coming back at all. Not about wait times.

 

[mikejs78]

I genuinely don't understand. People here are telling you actual facts and you're just denying them.

No, they are not telling facts. They are making up stats. Also, just because the 80/20 ratio is correct, it doesn't mean they let 80 people go before they let 20. They could let four people go and let 1, or 16 people go and let 4.

The easyWDW Post has a lot of flaws. It compares exact dates, does not adjust for rises and attendance, and doesn't compare the crowd level at the park on those given days.

The touring plans one is more accurate - it does adjust for attendance, and also for crowd levels and ride breakdowns throughout the park.. And their models show me the modest increase of 4 to 9 minutes.

The assertion that Millennium Falcon increased 10 to 15 minutes on average is incorrect. I did an analysis based on crowd levels between the days before and the days after, and showed an average time of under 10 minutes - around 9 - without factoring in right breakdowns. Looking at the data on breakdowns, I suspect that the real number from Millennium Falcon is probably around 7 minutes difference. But it's hard to say because there was so little data.

At the end of the day, fast pass does increase the standby line marginally on average. But it does reduce the peaks generally because it spreads attendance throughout the day for most rides.

This whole two-line fallacy, assertions about simple math, etcetera are just not consistent with queuing theory - as I said before, it's not a cutting in line, it's managed throughput. It doesn't take into account that far fewer people are in the standby lines than otherwise are, people who use FastPass are not always in standby lines when they're waiting for their fastpass - they're doing more eating, more shopping, More enjoying of the park.

This is the last I'm going to say on the subject in this thread. If anyone wants to PM me, feel free - but I'm going to use this thread going forward to talk about whatever the future fastpass solution is. I have a gut feeling that many of the detractors of FastPass+ are going to wish that it returned once Disney introduces whatever is next.

 

[DisneyCane]

The essential issue with FP is that, as others have pointed out, the way the system is designed it allows you to be in two lines at the same time. Where it causes the biggest issues is when somebody is using the standby line for one E-ticket while "in" the FP line for another E-ticket.

If the E-tickets were 100% virtual queue and you were limited to one ride per day and the D-tickets and below were standby only, the increased waits wouldn't be a big deal.

The skip the line systems at non-Disney parks (at least the ones I know of) don't allow you to be in two lines at once because there is no scheduled return time.

The system was developed thinking people would purchase food or merchandise while in the virtual queue, not be in another queue simultaneously.

Since FP inventory is limited, it causes a situation where one guest saves time overall at AK because they scored a FP for FoP while another guest has their overall wait time increased because they want to ride FoP and have to wait 3 hours in standby. It doesn't matter that they saved 15 minutes on EE with a FP because the FoP standby wait overwhelms the average.

 

[StarshipDisney]

Well, IMHO...and after 153 pages...this thread has certainly gone sufficiently off course...

Any news on why some FastPass machines seem to still be physically located in the parks and why all the FastPass signage is still physically there? (I am talking about the signs designating the FastPass line at each ride)

If FastPass is never coming back as it was, then why don't they just remove/change the signage and take out all the machines? Seems you would want to get it out of sight and out of mind, but no, Disney is keeping it there. Any discussion/thoughts about that if their plan is to kill FP?

 

[mikejs78]

Well, IMHO...and after 153 pages...this thread has certainly gone sufficiently off course...

Any news on why some FastPass machines seem to still be physically located in the parks and why all the FastPass signage is still physically there? (I am talking about the signs designating the FastPass line at each ride)

If FastPass is never coming back as it was, then why don't they just remove/change the signage and take out all the machines? Seems you would want to get it out of sight and out of mind, but no, Disney is keeping it there. Any discussion/thoughts about that if their plan is to kill FP?

I don't think the plan is to kill fast pass, but change it significantly. The hints we've heard about are they're removing of the 30/60-day window, and some sort of free tier and paid tier. All subject to change with no timeline on if and when it will be rolled out.

 

[jpinkc]

WOW this got off the rails. I had no problems with FP+ or FP. I didnt mind making sure my kids got 3 for SURE attractions they wanted to ride. We rode other things around our FPs and maybe got an extra ride without FP in the evenings. My wife has some mobility issues so waiting in longer lines 60-90 plus just dont work for us. 45-60 is about her limit to stand. Last trip at MK we did 7DMT, Splash, BTR, all on FP+, we still got SM, HM and Pirates. Yes we had to wait in line as our FPs were spread out over the day, but we could catch alot of the smaller ones we like around those Peter Pan, Pooh, Barnstormer, Dumbo, Small World, Jungle Cruise etc. That was 2019, so it was successfull for us. I will say Universals system is Nice but Disney I dont think can pull that one off or wont and if they did it would be so price prohibitive to a guest that many would not want to spend that on top of the cost of an on property stay.

 

[G00fyDad]

Well, IMHO...and after 153 pages...this thread has certainly gone sufficiently off course...

Any news on why some FastPass machines seem to still be physically located in the parks and why all the FastPass signage is still physically there? (I am talking about the signs designating the FastPass line at each ride)

If FastPass is never coming back as it was, then why don't they just remove/change the signage and take out all the machines? Seems you would want to get it out of sight and out of mind, but no, Disney is keeping it there. Any discussion/thoughts about that if their plan is to kill FP?

They're not going to take down signage and change the wording on the kiosk screens until they decide if they're going to call the system something else or not. They're still trying to figure out what they're going to do so they're not going to tear something down and then decide later on that they need to continue calling it fastpass and then have to put all that stuff back.

I think for the time being they're going to realize they have to bring fast pass back as it was but without the 30/60 day window. That's why we're seeing more kiosks going up I bet. They'll probably bring it back for the time being and have you schedule it the morning of each day. Then when they come up with their new system, whatever that may be, they can simply push it out and and have people start using that new system.

Hopefully, the new system is a hybrid if they're going to have any pay system involved with it at all. Maybe 3/4/5 fast passes depending on your resort level stay and then pay for anything over that. If you're staying off property pay for all fast passes.

 

[Jenny72]

I'm not a huge fan of FP+ but I have a feeling that I will like whatever comes next even less. Those two things aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[havoc315]

No, they are not telling facts. They are making up stats. Also, just because the 80/20 ratio is correct, it doesn't mean they let 80 people go before they let 20. They could let four people go and let 1, or 16 people go and let 4.

The easyWDW Post has a lot of flaws. It compares exact dates, does not adjust for rises and attendance, and doesn't compare the crowd level at the park on those given days.

The touring plans one is more accurate - it does adjust for attendance, and also for crowd levels and ride breakdowns throughout the park.. And their models show me the modest increase of 4 to 9 minutes.

The assertion that Millennium Falcon increased 10 to 15 minutes on average is incorrect. I did an analysis based on crowd levels between the days before and the days after, and showed an average time of under 10 minutes - around 9 - without factoring in right breakdowns.

I said 10-15… your quibble is that your math came out to 9?

Looking at the data on breakdowns, I suspect that the real number from Millennium Falcon is probably around 7 minutes difference. But it's hard to say because there was so little data.

I’d actually totally agree that on “average”, you’re talking about increasing waits by 7-15 minutes on given rides.

Where I disagree, is the dismissal of 7-15 minutes as nothing.

Over the course or 5-10 standby lines in a given day, that’s an extra 35 to 150 minutes spent on standby lines per day.

Adding 10 minutes to FOP, from 90 minutes to 100 minutes, might not sound like a big deal.

But when Small World goes from 10 minutes to 20 minutes, Pirates goes from 15 minutes to 25 minutes, etc, etc. It adds up.

Which is why, best case scenario — the time the average guest “saves” with FP, they pay back with longer standby lines the rest of the day.

Great— you saved 25 minutes with a Big Thunder Mountain fast pass, but you gave it back over the next 3 standby lines.

At the end of the day, fast pass does increase the standby line marginally on average. But it does reduce the peaks generally because it spreads attendance throughout the day for most rides.


This whole two-line fallacy, assertions about simple math, etcetera are just not consistent with queuing theory - as I said before, it's not a cutting in line, it's managed throughput. It doesn't take into account that far fewer people are in the standby lines than otherwise are,

but not 80% fewer

people who use FastPass are not always in standby lines when they're waiting for their fastpass - they're doing more eating, more shopping, More enjoying of the park.

That was the intent. That’s not really how it ended up working. For the most part, on average, guests put their saved time back into a standby line—- not into souvenir shopping.

This is the last I'm going to say on the subject in this thread. If anyone wants to PM me, feel free - but I'm going to use this thread going forward to talk about whatever the future fastpass solution is. I have a gut feeling that many of the detractors of FastPass+ are going to wish that it returned once Disney introduces whatever is next.

That’s the case with every change. With the announcement if the new Extended Hours, many people are whining that they want EMH back. When FP+ came, lots of people claimed to miss paper FP system.

With every change, there are detractors. And with every change, there are people who benefit from the change, and people hurt by the change.

The people opposed to a pay-FP system are the ones who feel like they mastered the FP+ system and don’t want to now have to pay a significant sum for such benefit.

 

[mikejs78]

I said 10-15… your quibble is that your math came out to 9?



I’d actually totally agree that on “average”, you’re talking about increasing waits by 7-15 minutes on given rides.

Where I disagree, is the dismissal of 7-15 minutes as nothing.

Over the course or 5-10 standby lines in a given day, that’s an extra 35 to 150 minutes spent on standby lines per day.

Adding 10 minutes to FOP, from 90 minutes to 100 minutes, might not sound like a big deal.

But when Small World goes from 10 minutes to 20 minutes, Pirates goes from 15 minutes to 25 minutes, etc, etc. It adds up.

Which is why, best case scenario — the time the average guest “saves” with FP, they pay back with longer standby lines the rest of the day.

Great— you saved 25 minutes with a Big Thunder Mountain fast pass, but you gave it back over the next 3 standby lines.


but not 80% fewer





That was the intent. That’s not really how it ended up working. For the most part, on average, guests put their saved time back into a standby line—- not into souvenir shopping.



That’s the case with every change. With the announcement if the new Extended Hours, many people are whining that they want EMH back. When FP+ came, lots of people claimed to miss paper FP system.

With every change, there are detractors. And with every change, there are people who benefit from the change, and people hurt by the change.

The people opposed to a pay-FP system are the ones who feel like they mastered the FP+ system and don’t want to now have to pay a significant sum for such benefit.

Can we agree to end this discussion? We are not going to convince each other.

 

[havoc315]

Can we agree to end this discussion? We are not going to convince each other.

lol, that's fine with me

 

[Chi84]

Can we agree to end this discussion? We are not going to convince each other.

Just my opinion, but that’s probably for the best. Some people who use FP+ probably do want to ride as many attractions as possible, but there are a great many who are more than happy to just have 3 as long as they can be certain of getting the rides they want at the times they want.

We go often enough that we split the days between pool/water parks and theme parks. We rarely wait in standby lines (never if they’re long) so it’s silly to tell me that I’m spending more total time standing in line because of FP+. That’s just not true for me, and there are plenty more like me at WDW. But not enough, apparently, to keep the current system, which is probably why Disney is changing it. I’ll have to adjust.

People who value different things are simply never going to agree because what is better for one won’t work for another.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

The people opposed to a pay-FP system are the ones who feel like they mastered the FP+ system and don’t want to now have to pay a significant sum for such benefit.

I dunno.

I feel I mastered FP-, FP+, and I have sometimes been willing to pay for similar fast/express/rapid passes in other parks. (whatever they happen to call their system.)

Time is money. Visiting Orlando costs money: transportation, hotel park tickets, food (extra cost of eating out).

I just looked up the cost of 'Ohana: $55 per person, plus tax and tip, so more like $70 per person! Yikes. Locally, there is a wide variety of places I can eat out for less than $15. Not fast food, really good food. 'Ohana is good, but not $70 good, and I have eaten at just about every WDW eatery multiple times. (Some many) Today, WDW dining is wildly overpriced. It isn't just the price, WDW Table Service restaurants are also HUGE time sucks. You pay a crazy amount of $, AND lose 2 hours of park time. Just to eat. I'm not even counting the transportation time. I used to hate the idea of carrying granola bars at WDW.

On the other hand, sometimes paying for expedited transportation at WDW= a large time savings. For a time, if you weren't at HS before park opening, you weren't getting on Rise.

If WDW charges for FP, I might pay, or a might decide the price isn't worth paying. It depends what it costs, and how much it improves park touring.

 

[havoc315]

If WDW charges for FP, I might pay, or a might decide the price isn't worth paying. It depends what it costs, and how much it improves park touring.

Bingo. And this is true for everyone. But it appears there is a fear that people will be priced out -- which is likely true. There are people who will eat Ohana, signature dinners, buffets, every day. There are those for whom it is a costly splurge to do it 1 night, and there are people who won't or can't afford those restaurants.

There are those who are willing to pay $2k for a VIP "tour" which is really nothing more than a day of line skipping.

The higher they price it, the more people will be excluded (either because they can't afford it or because they don't find it worth the cost).
But it's like the current debate about EMH vs Extended Hours. For guests who do pay the premium to stay at deluxe resorts, they are mostly happy -- By being more exclusive, it should be a superior experience compared to EMH which included more than double the number of qualifying guests. But for those who only budget Mod/Value or "neighbor" hotel, they feel that something is being unfairly taken away from them.

It all reminds me of a line from The Incredibles -- "If everyone is special, it's just another way of saying nobody is." -- You can't give an "exclusive special benefit" to everyone. The more exclusive it is, the better the benefit can be. Giving "everyone" essentially the same Front-Of-Line privilege really has made for a pretty weak benefit.
On the other extreme-- the only people currently getting Front-Of-Line privileges are basically Club 33 and VIP Tour groups. So paying $30k per year or $2k per day does give a very special benefit.

So if Disney does indeed "monetize" Fastpass.... it will be a question of where on the spectrum it lands. A weaker benefit at a lower price, or a bigger benefit that is more exclusive at a higher price.
No matter where it lands, there will essentially be 4 groups of guests:
1 -- Guests who love it, because they are happy to pay for a superior benefit.
2 -- Guests who can afford it but buy it begrudgingly, and feel they are being forced to buy an overpriced benefit
3 -- Guests who can afford it but decide against buying it. While upset about missing the benefit, they found it overpriced.
4 -- Guests who really can't afford it, who will be upset that "Disney is pricing out regular people like them!"

Pretty much no matter how they design it, people will fall into those 4 basic camps.

 

[aaronml]

I can already predict how TDO will announce this…
“We’ve heard from guests that they’d like the ability to spend less time waiting in line, especially with recent unprecedented levels of demand. Accordingly, we’re launching a brand new premium service as part of our new Genie app that allows our guests to purchase faster access to our most popular attractions, to make the most of your time here at the most magical place on earth.”

and then all references to FP+ will be conveniently removed from the WDW website…

 

[havoc315]

I can already predict how TDO will announce this…
“We’ve heard from guests that they’d like the ability to spend less time waiting in line, especially with recent unprecedented levels of demand. Accordingly, we’re launching a brand new premium service as part of our new Genie app that allows our guests to purchase faster access to our most popular attractions, to make the most of your time here at the most magical place on earth.”

and then all references to FP+ will be conveniently removed from the WDW website…

They actually have already conveniently removed most FP references from the website and app. It's pretty hard to find now.

 

[AmishGuy91]

They actually have already conveniently removed most FP references from the website and app. It's pretty hard to find now.

i mean, i guess besides the 77 results that come up when you search for fastpass

 

[havoc315]

i mean, i guess besides the 77 results that come up when you search for fastpass

Compared to the 755 results for "dining plan"
Simply search for the "Contemporary" gets you 94 results.
"Magic Bands" gets you 148 results.
"Annual Pass" gets 281 results.

Yes, there are still a couple FP faqs that come up in a search, old blog entries, etc, but they aren't linked to any of the main menus anymore. Conversely, if you click the main menu for "Parks and Tickets" -- You still get an Annual Pass subheading. If you click "Things to Do", there is still a subheader for "Dining Plans." You can't get to a link about FP without going through searches.

 

[TrojanUSC]

There are those who are willing to pay $2k for a VIP "tour" which is really nothing more than a day of line skipping.

Minimum cost for a VIP tour nowadays is $3500, but on average closer to $5K. Also, unlike Universal, they don't even take you to the front of the lines. They stick you in the FP+ queue with everyone else (when FP exists).

 

[DisneyHead123]

Random musing… if they do use the Genie wishes model and go with a “blind box” approach to a small number of the offerings, I can see that being a positive and fun for Disney fans who want to “collect” every possible experience. They could offer a seasonal character meet and greet that pops up as a possible wish on certain days, for example, or an exclusive wine tasting during the wine festival, or even a “pop up” dessert party. If they are creative with it, there could be some fun in this approach.