FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[nickys]

Many people have pointed out that many of us never waited in standby lines. Getting FP was too easy. Also, based on much of the data provided there is no evidence that FP does significantly increase standby waits. In fact most of the evidence suggests that people that use FP, do overall spend less time waiting.

The only actual evidence one way or the other that I’m aware of is that of the Touring Plans team.

Is there other such evidence out there, as in measured wait times across entire days and analysed by statisticians? Or by evidence do you mean just lots of individuals sharing their own experience?

 

[acup313]

The only actual evidence one way or the other that I’m aware of is that of the Touring Plans team.

Is there other such evidence out there, as in measured wait times across entire days and analysed by statisticians? Or by evidence do you mean just lots of individuals sharing their own experience?

Essentially what I’m saying is we don’t really have much evidence either way but that one study suggests that wait times did not increase much. So essentially we don’t really know either way so these really strong claims aren’t supported.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Many people have pointed out that many of us never waited in standby lines. Getting FP was too easy. Also, based on much of the data provided there is no evidence that FP does significantly increase standby waits. In fact most of the evidence suggests that people that use FP, do overall spend less time waiting.

Well, whatever you want, I don't rely on data obtained by others I rely on actual experience. I don't have the power to change it anyway so no worries. I refuse to continue to kid myself about that smoke and mirror perk that Disney created.

 

[flynnibus]

Essentially what I’m saying is we don’t really have much evidence either way but that one study suggests that wait times did not increase much. So essentially we don’t really know either way so these really strong claims aren’t supported.

No, you are taking the absence of a study to try to confirm the opposite. That's not how it works. What is missing is the objective MEASUREMENT - not observations of the differences.

And statements like 'pointed out that many of us never waited in standby lines' are again broad generalizations that don't actually hold true. They are just hand waving trying to obfuscate things. People did wait in standby lines - as many attractions didn't have FP at all.

Yes, many people love that FP reduced the wait they experienced for marque attractions - and yes, those that optmized gained more than those that did not. That doesn't mean there wasn't an impact on the lines when you didn't explicitly use a FP. This is classic "well I never saw it, so it couldn't have been true" thinking. It's completely skewed and a completely flawed argument.

 

[Goofyernmost]

You are arguing apples and Volkswagons there. They are agreeing to my post that says people are arguing about wait times when this thread is about the possibility that they return. You are still arguing about wait times. Something that they were not talking about.

Actually that is what we are talking about except more of should it return. I don't have a single problem with it not returning and have stated why. The other side are wetting there pants with anxiety about that possibility of the loss of a unreal advantage. To each his or her own. At my age the number of visits that I am likely to be able to make is limited anyway, so have it whatever way makes you happy.

 

[mikejs78]

Sorry, but it's 100% the exact opposite. Denial ain't just a river in Egypt. You have once again been duped by the time that you think you have saved in random attractions. You did save time on whatever attractions you had a FP assigned to you, but if you want to see anything else you will quickly lose that saved time because of others that have FP and making you stand in that dreaded standby line. Without FP you would have used the same amount of time to see more because you didn't have to deal with the road block on the standby line caused by the multi car wreak that is the Fastpass line.

I don't think the math supports that idea. For the sake of argument, let's assume that there are 10 attractions you want to go on in a day, and each one has a 60 minute wait-time pre-fastpass. That means you'll spend a total of 10 hours in line for those 10 attractions.

Now let's say the park implements FastPass+ and you get FastPasses for 3 of those attractions, and that FastPass increases all Standby lines by 10 minutes (which is at the upper range of what all analysis has shown).. And let's say each FastPass attraction you spend 5 minutes in line. That means you will now only spend 505 minutes in line total, which translates to an additional 1.5 hours not spent in line.

That's a contrived example, and it's impossible to do a completely accurate one, but here's one that's less contrived. Let's take a real date (I picked, completely randomly, October 5, 2019 at MK, again using TouringPlans data and the average wait time for the day https://touringplans.com/magic-kingdom/wait-times/date/2019-10-05)

Let's again assume that all attractions would be 10 minutes shorter if FastPass didn't exist (again, this is at the upper range of what the TP analysis has shown).

So, the assumption of pre-FP would look like this:

7 Dwarfs	84
Big Thunder	38
Buzz	39
Dumbo	20
Haunted	50
Small World	20
Pirates	36
Space	73
Splash	67
Pooh	23
Total	450

So 450 minutes, or 7.5 hours. Now let's say with FP, you add 10 minutes to each standby line, but you get FastPasses to three attractions. For the sake of this exercise let's even imagine that I was staying offsite and couldn't get a FP for Mine Train, and I'm just getting it for some random attractions. I'll pick Big Thunder, Haunted Mansion, and Pooh. What does that look like?

7 Dwarfs	94
Big Thunder	5
Buzz	49
Dumbo	30
Haunted	5
Small World	30
Pirates	46
Space	83
Splash	77
Pooh	5
Total	424

Saves nearly a half hour, even with those meh FastPasses. Swap Pooh for something a little better like Pirates, and you save almost 40 minutes. Swap it for one of the other E-Tickets like Splash or Space, and the average guest can save quite a lot of time.

7 Dwarfs	94
Big Thunder	5
Buzz	49
Dumbo	30
Haunted	5
Small World	30
Pirates	46
Space	5
Splash	77
Pooh	33
Total	374

In that scenario, you spend one and a quarter hours less in line than you would have with standby only, and that's assuming that standby lines all increase as a result of FP+. And that doesn't even take into account additional Fastpasses, skipping some rides because of lack of line tolerance, getting some short wait times at park opening/closing, etc...

 

[mikejs78]

This is classic "well I never saw it, so it couldn't have been true" thinking. It's completely skewed and a completely flawed argument.

Well, no. There has been data shown that standy lines do increase, but only by a little. There has been no data shown to the contrary.

 

[Disney Dad 3000]

Thoroughly entertaining discussion, I guess? Reality is with whatever Disney does, there's going to be a population that is happy, the other that is ticked. Going to a paid FP or no FP (not likely), would certainly impact how much we go back (family of 4), if we went back. I've never used Max Pass, but suppose I could stomach some version of that if it came to it and the minimal cost associated (not likely).

I'll help contribute to the data with the pre-COVID/FP+ era for the expert math whizzes out there. This was my day 12/4/19 (2 people).

 

[HairyChest]

I really enjoyed fastpass +

we stay dvc so our emphasis was enjoying our resort. Having 3 guaranteed rides with minimum waits was perfect. The rest of the rides we enjoyed, were usually not in demand like people mover or carousel of progress. Without fastpass, we reduced the amount of rides we wait for.

 

[kong1802]

Thoroughly entertaining discussion, I guess? Reality is with whatever Disney does, there's going to be a population that is happy, the other that is ticked. Going to a paid FP or no FP (not likely), would certainly impact how much we go back (family of 4), if we went back. I've never used Max Pass, but suppose I could stomach some version of that if it came to it and the minimal cost associated (not likely).

I'll help contribute to the data with the pre-COVID/FP+ era for the expert math whizzes out there. This was my day 12/4/19 (2 people).

View attachment 566066

What were the park hours that day?!

You waited in line, got on 7DMT and then on PP in 6 minutes?

I know it's a short coaster but even at walk on (which it never is) that's pretty impressive....

And without FP?

ETA: Let's assume you got off 7DMT at 8:56. You were able to just walk straight onto PP 6 mins later with no FP?

How many people did you trip

 

[flynnibus]

Well, no. There has been data shown that standy lines do increase, but only by a little. There has been no data shown to the contrary.

No, there has been data comparing FP+ era to FP era.

 

[mikejs78]

It doesn't matter how much data either side has. #1 - You are never going to change the other side's mind. #2 - This thread is about the possibility of it returning and what form it may take.

1. This is a discussion forum. We discuss tons of things that are never going to change people's minds....
2. I mean, from the beginning of the thread people have been talking about how FP makes for longer lines... Literally on page 1...

 

[mikejs78]

No, there has been data comparing FP+ era to FP era.

With some attractions that were non-FP that converted to having FP.

 

[flynnibus]

With some attractions that were non-FP that converted to having FP.

Doesn't work like that... the environment and behavior differs. Too many other variables have intermixed to make that extracted conclusion.

 

[Disney Dad 3000]

What were the park hours that day?!

You waited in line, got on 7DMT and then on PP in 6 minutes?

I know it's a short coaster but even at walk on (which it never is) that's pretty impressive....

And without FP?

ETA: Let's assume you got off 7DMT at 8:56. You were able to just walk straight onto PP 6 mins later with no FP?

How many people did you trip

I knocked over one old lady, but she said she was good. lol

9am-10pm with extra magic hours from 10-12
Those times are all on ride or walking out the exit.

Did BOG breakfast that AM and was 2nd or 3rd at the in park line for 7DMT. Were fortunate they ran it a couple of min before park open so could jet over to PP quickly during the opening rush. I can double check my tweets from that day, but pretty sure both the 7D and PP times are from first sitting down in the vehicle.

 

[kong1802]

I knocked over one old lady, but she said she was good. lol

9am-10pm with extra magic hours from 10-12
Those times are all on ride or walking out the exit.

Did BOG breakfast that AM and was 2nd or 3rd at the in park line for 7DMT. Were fortunate they ran it a couple of min before park open so could jet over to PP quickly during the opening rush. I can double check my tweets from that day, but pretty sure both the 7D and PP times are from first sitting down in the vehicle.

Ah ok... The old PPO BOG 7DMT route.

Makes more sense now.

 

[G00fyDad]

1. This is a discussion forum. We discuss tons of things that are never going to change people's minds....
2. I mean, from the beginning of the thread people have been talking about how FP makes for longer lines... Literally on page 1...

So you agree?

 

[LittleBuford]

Well, whatever you want, I don't rely on data obtained by others I rely on actual experience.

I totally accept that in your experience, the overall time you wait in queues hasn’t gone down with FP, and may even have gone up. But what do you say to those of us who’ve had the opposite experience? Isn’t it just possible that some users of FP really do save time overall?

 

[LittleBuford]

We’re discussing a topic related to the main subject, about which there are no new updates anyway. What’s the issue exactly?

 

[G00fyDad]

"FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was"

You're right. That thread title screams wait times to me. Carry on. Every time I see a new post pop up for this thread I think to myself "Is this going to have something to do with fast passes returning or is it going to be more people talking about wait times? Yep. More people talking about wait times."

But no. Go ahead. Keep discussing wait times. We'll filter through. Just don't get upset when I poke fun at it.