FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

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phillip9698

Well-Known Member
I for one hope it doesn't come back until after our September trip. I've been looking at wait times and salivating at the prospect of being able to ride some fan favorites and and see the full queue without an extended wait. Moving through a continuously moving queue makes the wait seem so much shorter than the stop and go action comes comes with FP+.
 

acup313

Active Member
The basic principle to model is simple; here is a very distilled example:

4 people walk up to a ride with a posted 30 minute wait. Two of them wouldn’t wait more than 20 minutes for that particular ride. The other two would gladly wait an hour.

How many people get in line if FP doesn’t exist?
How many people get in line if one person from each group has a FP?

The answers are 2 and 3. You’ll note that 3 is more than 2.

Model out large numbers of people with lots a variance in their wait willingness and you can start to build something useful.

What are the impacts of a FP system?
  • The average wait time a person who rides the ride waits overall goes down
  • The average time a person in the standby queue waits goes up
  • Fewer people are in the queue at any given moment. A portion of the people not in line for this ride will go to other rides, increasing their wait times. This has knock on wait time effects I have not modeled
  • Overall, guests are being less efficiently matched with the attractions they most want to do, as tolerances for wait times vary based on interest, but most guests will wait 5 minutes for most rides.
You can read all about it in my book Fastpass: It’s a Thing That Exists That I Express No Opinion On Except That It Annoys Me To See People Making Demonstrably False Claims On Both Sides.
Except at some point there is going to be an equilibrium. In your example when the wait hits one hour we go back to just 2 people riding it. Based on the data we have, on regular attendance days at the prime times rides hit the equilibrium and FP has little total affect on the wait time.
 

G00fyDad

Well-Known Member
So, I took a walk today and went past the old high school that I graduated from. While walking past the front I noticed two young kids arguing over a banana in the parking lot. As I approached one of them he screamed and ran off. I gave chase and once I caught up to the young man I noticed that it was in fact a dwarf and the banana was actually a small stick of butter. I asked him why he was carrying a stick of butter and he said that he needed it to get on the ferry since that was the preferred method of payment for the ferryman. I thought to myself that this was a weird thing for someone to do so I walked back to my house to sit on my throne and contemplate the day's adventure.


What does this story have to do with FP+ returning? Nothing. Just the same as wait times.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
The basic principle to model is simple; here is a very distilled example:

Problem is... people try to break it down into something simple, and lose all the important pieces in doing so. First issue, looking at a single attraction in isolation :)

Instead it should be distilled to the very simple principle of... if you claim you gained available time with FP by waiting less, then you had more time to be somewhere else that you otherwise would have before. Then you MUST have had an impact somewhere in the park that pre-FP wouldn't have happened.

Who saves time with FP and then does nothing during the time they would have otherwise been in the other line? Nobody.
 

DisneyDelirious

Super structures are my specialty!
Premium Member
Today there were 2 fp kiosks uncovered in tomorrowland. Scanned my band and nothing much happened. They are covered everywhere else so I'm assuming it's for a test of some kind.
We were at WDW May 28-June 6 and there was a FP+ kiosk at Jungle Cruise uncovered at that time. I don’t recall seeing any others. It was lit up and uncovered.
 

Swarls Barkley

No one to love him at all.
Premium Member
The basic principle to model is simple; here is a very distilled example:

4 people walk up to a ride with a posted 30 minute wait. Two of them wouldn’t wait more than 20 minutes for that particular ride. The other two would gladly wait an hour.

How many people get in line if FP doesn’t exist?
How many people get in line if one person from each group has a FP?

The answers are 2 and 3. You’ll note that 3 is more than 2.

Model out large numbers of people with lots a variance in their wait willingness and you can start to build something useful.

What are the impacts of a FP system?
  • The average wait time a person who rides the ride waits overall goes down
  • The average time a person in the standby queue waits goes up
  • Fewer people are in the queue at any given moment. A portion of the people not in line for this ride will go to other rides, increasing their wait times. This has knock on wait time effects I have not modeled
  • Overall, guests are being less efficiently matched with the attractions they most want to do, as tolerances for wait times vary based on interest, but most guests will wait 5 minutes for most rides.
You can read all about it in my book Fastpass: It’s a Thing That Exists That I Express No Opinion On Except That It Annoys Me To See People Making Demonstrably False Claims On Both Sides.
Is that available for the Kindle ?
 

CastAStone

Assistant to Bob Chapek
Except at some point there is going to be an equilibrium. In your example when the wait hits one hour we go back to just 2 people riding it. Based on the data we have, on regular attendance days at the prime times rides hit the equilibrium and FP has little total affect on the wait time.
The equilibriums will be different if all guests have different wait time sensitivities for a given attraction, which they obviously do.
 

G00fyDad

Well-Known Member
Today the Fastpass + kiosk were uncovered and actually on. Maybe we are getting closer to the return.
They've been like this for several days. Everything I've read so far from places other than forums has pointed toward October 1st as the official turn on for FP+. But take that with a huge bucket of salt.
Did they say "Updating... (1%)" on the screens?
No. It did say insert $20 for the first 30 minutes.
 

wdwfan22

Well-Known Member

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wdwfan22

Well-Known Member
They've been like this for several days. Everything I've read so far from places other than forums has pointed toward October 1st as the official turn on for FP+. But take that with a huge bucket of salt.

No. It did say insert $20 for the first 30 minutes.
Really i hadn't seen them on before. I have seen them uncovered but never turned on.
 

G00fyDad

Well-Known Member
Really i hadn't seen them on before. I have seen them uncovered but never turned on.
I think they're getting close to flipping the switch. A couple of places I've read articles on say they are predicting July 5th as the turn on date. Either way I wish they would have not turned them on until they're ready for them to go live because all that does is mess with our heads. LOL
 

ilovetotravel1977

Active Member
Hmmm, my 60 days out from November 27 is September 25...Canada/US border should be open, quarantine gone, vaccine passports implemented...I'll be ready at 7:00am EST!
 
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