FastPass+ Disappearing on Some Attractions?

[CastAStone]

Why FP increases waits: a mathematical example.

BACKGROUND:

• We have a theoretical ride that has a capacity of 2000 guests per hour, or 500 per 15 minutes.
• Every 15 minutes, 1000 guests walk up to that ride (or look at their phone) to check the wait time.
• Of those 1000 guests, 100 are willing to wait 10 minutes to ride that ride, 100 are willing to wait 20 minutes for that particular ride, 100 are willing to wait 30 minutes, and so on to the final group of 100 who are willing to wait 100 minutes for the ride. We will call these groups of 100 "wait groups"
• In scenario 1, we do not have Fastpass, and everyone is admitted through Standby
• In scenario 2, 75% of guests are admitted from the Fastpass line
  • These guests (375 per 15 minute block) are pulled evenly from all willingnesses to wait (because the FP wait time is supposed to be max 5 minutes and they're all willing to wait 5 minutes) so each wait group is contributing 37 riders per 15 minutes to the FP queue, and thus only has 63 guests per wait group per 15 minutes walking up or checking their phone for the wait time.
• For simplicities sake, we're doing this in 15 minute blocks (even though Disney updates wait times every 5 minutes or so)

Scenario 1:
As you can see in below, at 9:00 when the park opens, the posted wait time is 5 minutes, and all 1000 guests who walk up in the first 15 minutes enter the queue. 500 ride the ride, leaving 500 in line. So at 9:15, the posted wait time becomes 15 minutes.

This means that all the people willing to wait only 10 minutes no longer want to get in line, so only 900 people enter the queue (the people willing to wait 20-100 minutes). 500 ride the ride, and at 9:30, with 900 people in line, the wait time is set at 25 minutes, and the people only willing to wait 20 minutes no longer want to enter the queue.

This continues for a while but it hits a balancing point. Eventually at 10:45, the posted wait time becomes 55 minutes. At 50 minutes, 500 people enter the queue, and 500 people ride the ride, with 1700 people in line, so the wait time stays at 55 minutes for the rest of the day. You can see this in the table below.

Scenario 2:
As you can see in below, at 9:00 when the park opens, the posted wait time is 5 minutes, and again, all 625 guests who walk up in the first 15 minutes enter the standby queue (remember, the other 375 guests who would have walked up have Fastpasses). In this scenario though, only 125 ride the ride in that first 15 minutes, because 375 ride spaces are going to FastPass. So after 15 minutes, there are 500 in line, just like in scenario 1, but that represents a wait time of 1 hour instead of 15 minutes, because with FastPass, only 125 people come our of the Standby queue every 15 minutes. That 1 hour is already longer than we ever see in scenario 1.

With a posted wait time of 60 minutes, only those willing to wait 60-100 minutes will enter the queue, so we get 313 guests entering the standby queue between 9:15 and 9:30. Again, however, only 125 board the ride from the standby queue, leaving 688 in line, which represents a wait time of 85 minutes.

With a posted wait of 85 minutes, we actually hit the FastPass equilibrium. only people willing to wait 90-100 minutes are entering the ride (125 per 15 minutes), and 125 people are riding from standby per 15 minutes, so the line remains at 688 people, and the wait time stays at 85 minutes the rest of the day, as you can see below.

This is obviously an oversimplification, but hopefully it explains why wait times HAVE to be longer with FastPass.

TL : DR, FP increases wait times because people who wouldn't have waited the posted wait time are cutting the line.

 

[Trackmaster]

Why FP increases waits: a mathematical example.

BACKGROUND:

• We have a theoretical ride that has a capacity of 2000 guests per hour, or 500 per 15 minutes.
• Every 15 minutes, 1000 guests walk up to that ride (or look at their phone) to check the wait time.
• Of those 1000 guests, 100 are willing to wait 10 minutes to ride that ride, 100 are willing to wait 20 minutes for that particular ride, 100 are willing to wait 30 minutes, and so on to the final group of 100 who are willing to wait 100 minutes for the ride. We will call these groups of 100 "wait groups"
• In scenario 1, we do not have Fastpass, and everyone is admitted through Standby
• In scenario 2, 75% of guests are admitted from the Standby line
  • These guests (375 per 15 minute block) are pulled evenly from all willingnesses to wait (because the FP wait time is supposed to be max 5 minutes and they're all willing to wait 5 minutes) so each wait group is contributing 37 riders per 15 minutes to the FP queue, and thus only has 63 guests per wait group per 15 minutes walking up or checking their phone for the wait time.
• For simplicities sake, we're doing this in 15 minute blocks (even though Disney updates wait times every 5 minutes or so)

Scenario 1:
As you can see in below, at 9:00 when the park opens, the posted wait time is 5 minutes, and all 1000 guests who walk up in the first 15 minutes enter the queue. 500 ride the ride, leaving 500 in line. So at 9:15, the posted wait time becomes 15 minutes.

This means that all the people willing to wait only 10 minutes no longer want to get in line, so only 900 people enter the queue (the people willing to wait 20-100 minutes). 500 ride the ride, and at 9:30, with 900 people in line, the wait time is set at 25 minutes, and the people only willing to wait 20 minutes no longer want to enter the queue.

This continues for a while but it hits a balancing point. Eventually at 10:45, the posted wait time becomes 55 minutes. At 50 minutes, 500 people enter the queue, and 500 people ride the ride, with 1700 people in line, so the wait time stays at 55 minutes for the rest of the day. You can see this in the table below.

View attachment 546770

Scenario 2:
As you can see in below, at 9:00 when the park opens, the posted wait time is 5 minutes, and again, all 625 guests who walk up in the first 15 minutes enter the standby queue (remember, the other 375 guests who would have walked up have Fastpasses). In this scenario though, only 125 ride the ride in that first 15 minutes, because 375 ride spaces are going to FastPass. So after 15 minutes, there are 500 in line, just like in scenario 1, but that represents a wait time of 1 hour instead of 15 minutes, because with FastPass, only 125 people come our of the Standby queue every 15 minutes. That 1 hour is already longer than we ever see in scenario 1.

With a posted wait time of 60 minutes, only those willing to wait 60-100 minutes will enter the queue, so we get 313 guests entering the standby queue between 9:15 and 9:30. Again, however, only 125 board the ride from the standby queue, leaving 688 in line, which represents a wait time of 85 minutes.

With a posted wait of 85 minutes, we actually hit the FastPass equilibrium. only people willing to wait 90-100 minutes are entering the ride (125 per 15 minutes), and 125 people are riding from standby per 15 minutes, so the line remains at 688 people, and the wait time stays at 85 minutes the rest of the day, as you can see below.

View attachment 546772
This is obviously an oversimplification, but hopefully it explains why wait times HAVE to be longer with FastPass.

TL : DR, FP increases wait times because people who wouldn't have waited the posted wait time are cutting the line.

I think that my argument for the importance of Virtual Queuing systems (which is really all that Fast Pass is) is that it acts as more of a reservation system than anything. Its the same reason that you make an appointment for a doctor's visit, and don't just sit in the waiting room for weeks. The issue is that there are more people in a given hour that want to ride than Disney bothered to make seats for. As every hour passes, you have to get through not only the new people coming in, but the old people who there wasn't capacity for previously. What do you do with the extra people? You want to keep them in a line like a caged animal unable to do anything else. I suggest that you give them comeback times so they can walk around, occupy themselves, get something to eat, or give on rides that there's capacity for.

Its a matter of philosophy. Ultimately, the end game goal should just be increasing speed, capacity, and whipping through more people. More omnimovers, more rides in general, more capacity. That's really the best way to solve these issues.

 

[danyoung56]

The amount of people that go and not spend any time at all doing research is just baffling to me.

But you have to know that research is needed. When someone plans to visit a place like WDW, they're making the assumption that they can just go up to the gate, pay their money, and go right in. Until someone explains to them why this is not going to work, they have no reason to assume anything else.

 

[StarshipDisney]

Anyway, whatever it is, it doesn’t change the fact of what have been saying in this thread, which is that you are going to wait a lot less on your 3 or 4 fast pass rides with the fast pass than you would without it. Again, that point isn’t even debatable.

Concur fully. I don't care what anybody else says, FP+ has been very good to us and we like it very much. I fully support it coming back.

1) FP+ is the only way I can drive down all day and arrive at 3:00 PM, get checked in, go over to the park and enjoy 3 of the best rides with little wait.
2) FP+ is the only way we got to ride FOP 3 times with little wait during our 2018 vacation.
3) FP+ gets us on 3 rides with little wait before we hit the road home.

I am definitely in the FP+ camp. I am strategic with it and it helps greatly. Those who do not plan; say they did not know they needed to plan; did not know what or how to plan; whatever; create their own situation.

 

[marni1971]

Concur fully. I don't care what anybody else says, FP+ has been very good to us and we like it very much. I fully support it coming back.

1) FP+ is the only way I can drive down all day and arrive at 3:00 PM, get checked in, go over to the park and enjoy 3 of the best rides with little wait.
2) FP+ is the only way we got to ride FOP 3 times with little wait during our 2018 vacation.
3) FP+ gets us on 3 rides with little wait before we hit the road home.

I am definitely in the FP+ camp. I am strategic with it and it helps greatly. Those who do not plan; say they did not know they needed to plan; did not know what or how to plan; whatever; create their own situation.

I’m sorry.

 

[Chi84]

I don't know why some people have to be such jerks about this. People vacation differently, and different systems benefit different vacation styles. There's nothing wrong with someone expressing disappointment over the possible demise of a ride system that worked for them. But by all means, let's be sarcastic to make them feel bad.

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

You indicated that you pop into a park for a few hours and leave. We are the same way. We are DVC, APH, and go to WDW multiple times a year. Although we like strolling through the parks, most of our time of late is spent relaxing poolside, dining, and drinking. Our children are grown and only occasionally come with us. Consequently, we enjoy WDW at a slower pace.

I'm not sure of the exact count, but I estimate that I've been on Test Track about 20 times since it opened in 1998.

We used to use FP+ all the time and were very good at maximizing it. We still hated it. All that planning and then the need to be in a certain place at a certain time. It already was a big pain to do this for ADRs (which we have mostly stopped using). We certainly did not enjoy having to plan our day around 5-minute rides.

We've now been to WDW 5 times since they reopened in July. The post FP+ World is so much better.

It's wonderful not having to get up early to make FP+ selections 60 days out.

It's wonderful not to have to plan the day around FP+ selections.

It's wonderful to not have hundreds in the FP+ line walk past us.

It's wonderful to not be stopped at the front of the Standby line and watch the Cast Member count out 20 (or more) from the FP+ line before they let us continue.

It's wonderful to not see all those sad faces as we walk past them when we are in the FP+ line.

It's wonderful to be in a Standby line that actually moves.

I hope they never bring back FP+.

This was stated so much better than I've ever been able to articulate it.

But if there was 1 thing about Walt Disney.... he despised socialism. So I don't think the idea of "every guest should get equal benefits" is very true to his own vision in actuality. In fact, when the parks first opened -- you paid per ride. So if you were on a tight budget, you couldn't afford as many rides as someone with a bigger budget.

Sorry, I'm sincerely not understanding where this applies. It's not socialism if everyone is paying roughly the same amount not withstanding variances for APs or various discounts. Not sure what socialism has to do with it anyway. I'm not and will not argue whether socialism is good or bad. That's not the point. If FP+ was a paid benefit, then so be it. You could choose to pay let's say twice the daily ticket price per ticket per day to "skip the lines", that would be anti-socialism. Great. So then call it PayPass, and then I think the argument ends, but the FP+ system is neither socialism, nor anti-socialism. It's a system that some folks learn how to work better than others and I'm not sure why some people get that benefit and others don't. Not sure what socialism has to do with the FP system or the elimination of it. If a person or family is willing to pay double the daily ticket price to always skip all the lines, great! More power to them, and at that price, they deserve it and very few people will buy it unless they can easily afford it. Or they can decide to save up in order to ride more rides, but visit less often. They paid for it, so that's great. It's the same as purchasing first class seats rather than coach.

Aside from that, I'm going to get torched, but I couldn't care less that Walt Disney despised socialism. Who cares? I'm really not one of those who feel that something is better because WD had a direct hand in it or not. It's either good or it's not... which is also debatable, but my opinion changes 0% because WD liked or didn't like something. I truly find it fascinating to hear how he started things in various documentaries I've seen. I also appreciate tremendously that he created these parks, or at least had the idea for these parks. I really enjoy so many of the iconic and original rides, but that's not because he liked it. It's because the creations themselves are enjoyable. WD's preferences or political views have no effect on mine. I'd also love to see any evidence that WD preferred the FP+ system. Let's not invoke WD's name to further an argument that he had zero input on, and for which he never expressed an opinion.

 

[plawren2]

Ok, so if you are just visiting the park for a few hours, then I assume you are a local Annual Pass Holder and have been on every attraction dozens of times.

Most WDW Guests are traveling from afar and spending thousands of dollars on this once-in-a-lifetime vacation.

So although it’s great that you get to ride Test Track with little wait for the 50th time because you know how to maximize FP+, these once-in-a-lifetime Guests are stuck in the 70-minute Standby line because they had no idea how important it was to make their FP+ selections as soon as they became available.

travel takes planning and research- WDW is no different than considering which place to visit, where to eat, activities to do on any vacation

 

[plawren2]

You indicated that you pop into a park for a few hours and leave. We are the same way. We are DVC, APH, and go to WDW multiple times a year. Although we like strolling through the parks, most of our time of late is spent relaxing poolside, dining, and drinking. Our children are grown and only occasionally come with us. Consequently, we enjoy WDW at a slower pace.

I'm not sure of the exact count, but I estimate that I've been on Test Track about 20 times since it opened in 1998.

We used to use FP+ all the time and were very good at maximizing it. We still hated it. All that planning and then the need to be in a certain place at a certain time. It already was a big pain to do this for ADRs (which we have mostly stopped using). We certainly did not enjoy having to plan our day around 5-minute rides.

We've now been to WDW 5 times since they reopened in July. The post FP+ World is so much better.

It's wonderful not having to get up early to make FP+ selections 60 days out.

It's wonderful not to have to plan the day around FP+ selections.

It's wonderful to not have hundreds in the FP+ line walk past us.

It's wonderful to not be stopped at the front of the Standby line and watch the Cast Member count out 20 (or more) from the FP+ line before they let us continue.

It's wonderful to not see all those sad faces as we walk past them when we are in the FP+ line.

It's wonderful to be in a Standby line that actually moves.

I hope they never bring back FP+.

"We've now been to WDW 5 times since they reopened in July" With max capacity set at 35% or less, completely different experience when WDW is back to 80%+ capacity post-pandemic

 

[havoc315]

This was stated so much better than I've ever been able to articulate it.


Sorry, I'm sincerely not understanding where this applies. It's not socialism if everyone is paying roughly the same amount not withstanding variances for APs or various discounts. Not sure what socialism has to do with it anyway. I'm not and will not argue whether socialism is good or bad. That's not the point. If FP+ was a paid benefit, then so be it. You could choose to pay let's say twice the daily ticket price per ticket per day to "skip the lines", that would be anti-socialism. Great. So then call it PayPass, and then I think the argument ends, but the FP+ system is neither socialism, nor anti-socialism. It's a system that some folks learn how to work better than others and I'm not sure why some people get that benefit and others don't. Not sure what socialism has to do with the FP system or the elimination of it. If a person or family is willing to pay double the daily ticket price to always skip all the lines, great! More power to them, and at that price, they deserve it and very few people will buy it unless they can easily afford it. Or they can decide to save up in order to ride more rides, but visit less often. They paid for it, so that's great. It's the same as purchasing first class seats rather than coach.

Not sure what you're disagreement is. You agree that there is no problem with differential pricing. "Socialism" (or really quasi-socialism) would be everyone gets charged the same and gets the same benefits. Walt never would have had a trouble with the more capitalist approach -- If you pay more, you can get more. (Whether it be longer hours, fastpasses, or whatever).

Aside from that, I'm going to get torched, but I couldn't care less that Walt Disney despised socialism. Who cares?

I don't care about Walt's personal views. He was a major racist. Doesn't play into whether I like or dislike current Disney parks.

Point was simply to counter the whole, "Walt wouldn't like guests being charged extra for fastpasses!"
Quite the contrary, Walt would have been, "hmm, how much more can we charge?"

 

[JusticeDisney]

You made a comment to someone that they would have waited in lines more at Disneyland because it doesn’t have fp+)

My point is that the preplanning of FP+ is not necessary. Disneyland has never had the preplanning aspect that fp+ has - fast pass and maxpass are both you have to be in the park, day of use only. And lines were absolutely not longer than Disney World, if anything they were shorter. The pre-planning aspect is what many here have been commenting negatively on, and Disneyland shows that the 60 day out preplanning is not necessary.

Ummmm, nope, that actually never happened. I have not even one time commented on Disneyland in this thread.

 

[CastAStone]

I think that my argument for the importance of Virtual Queuing systems (which is really all that Fast Pass is) is that it acts as more of a reservation system than anything. Its the same reason that you make an appointment for a doctor's visit, and don't just sit in the waiting room for weeks. The issue is that there are more people in a given hour that want to ride than Disney bothered to make seats for. As every hour passes, you have to get through not only the new people coming in, but the old people who there wasn't capacity for previously. What do you do with the extra people? You want to keep them in a line like a caged animal unable to do anything else. I suggest that you give them comeback times so they can walk around, occupy themselves, get something to eat, or give on rides that there's capacity for.

Its a matter of philosophy. Ultimately, the end game goal should just be increasing speed, capacity, and whipping through more people. More omnimovers, more rides in general, more capacity. That's really the best way to solve these issues.

FP is a VQ. FP+ is a reservation system. IMO if you’re going to to a reservation system it should be all or nothing, not a hybrid.

 

[StarshipDisney]

I’m sorry.

OK.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Ummmm, nope, that actually never happened. I have not even one time commented on Disneyland in this thread.

Respectfully, the person you responded to did mention Disneyland, and you responded quoting that person. The “and anyway” sentence reads as responding to the whole post, not just the one sentence about legacy fp at WDW.

I never waited in line 73 hours for a ride and I also never scheduled a ride 60 days in advance at Disneyland. Or in the days of legacy fast pass at Disney World.

Well, you must not have ever been to WDW during a peak time. And anyway, you sure as heck waited in line a lot longer than you would have with a FP+.

 

[Pepper's Ghost]

Not sure what you're disagreement is. You agree that there is no problem with differential pricing. "Socialism" (or really quasi-socialism) would be everyone gets charged the same and gets the same benefits.

I guess my point is that the FP+ system, although available to all, picks winners and losers. If someone is more tech savvy, or is capable of better learning the way the FP+ system works, they can gain a larger advantage through the system. I'm not sure why Disney promotes this kind of disparity when everyone is paying relatively the same price to enter. Just sell "first class tickets" or PayPass. I'm gonna going that phrase before Disney picks up on it.

 

[JusticeDisney]

Respectfully, the person you responded to did mention Disneyland, and you responded quoting that person. The “and anyway” sentence reads as responding to the whole post, not just the one sentence about legacy fp at WDW.

Sorry you misunderstood. And not to be a jerk, but that person was responding to ME, not the other way around. And I was only talking about WDW, which is all I ever talk about here given that this is a WDW message board that we are currently posting in. I can’t help the fact that this other person wanted to talk about Disneyland. Anyway, again I apologize for the mix-up.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Anyway, again I apologize for the mix-up.

It’s all good

 

[JD80]

FP is a VQ. FP+ is a reservation system. IMO if you’re going to to a reservation system it should be all or nothing, not a hybrid.

I sense a semantic argument in the near future for those brave enough.

 

[SteveAZee]

Why FP increases waits: a mathematical example.

BACKGROUND:

• We have a theoretical ride that has a capacity of 2000 guests per hour, or 500 per 15 minutes.
• Every 15 minutes, 1000 guests walk up to that ride (or look at their phone) to check the wait time.
• Of those 1000 guests, 100 are willing to wait 10 minutes to ride that ride, 100 are willing to wait 20 minutes for that particular ride, 100 are willing to wait 30 minutes, and so on to the final group of 100 who are willing to wait 100 minutes for the ride. We will call these groups of 100 "wait groups"
• In scenario 1, we do not have Fastpass, and everyone is admitted through Standby
• In scenario 2, 75% of guests are admitted from the Fastpass line
  • These guests (375 per 15 minute block) are pulled evenly from all willingnesses to wait (because the FP wait time is supposed to be max 5 minutes and they're all willing to wait 5 minutes) so each wait group is contributing 37 riders per 15 minutes to the FP queue, and thus only has 63 guests per wait group per 15 minutes walking up or checking their phone for the wait time.
• For simplicities sake, we're doing this in 15 minute blocks (even though Disney updates wait times every 5 minutes or so)

Scenario 1:
As you can see in below, at 9:00 when the park opens, the posted wait time is 5 minutes, and all 1000 guests who walk up in the first 15 minutes enter the queue. 500 ride the ride, leaving 500 in line. So at 9:15, the posted wait time becomes 15 minutes.

This means that all the people willing to wait only 10 minutes no longer want to get in line, so only 900 people enter the queue (the people willing to wait 20-100 minutes). 500 ride the ride, and at 9:30, with 900 people in line, the wait time is set at 25 minutes, and the people only willing to wait 20 minutes no longer want to enter the queue.

This continues for a while but it hits a balancing point. Eventually at 10:45, the posted wait time becomes 55 minutes. At 50 minutes, 500 people enter the queue, and 500 people ride the ride, with 1700 people in line, so the wait time stays at 55 minutes for the rest of the day. You can see this in the table below.

View attachment 546770

Scenario 2:
As you can see in below, at 9:00 when the park opens, the posted wait time is 5 minutes, and again, all 625 guests who walk up in the first 15 minutes enter the standby queue (remember, the other 375 guests who would have walked up have Fastpasses). In this scenario though, only 125 ride the ride in that first 15 minutes, because 375 ride spaces are going to FastPass. So after 15 minutes, there are 500 in line, just like in scenario 1, but that represents a wait time of 1 hour instead of 15 minutes, because with FastPass, only 125 people come our of the Standby queue every 15 minutes. That 1 hour is already longer than we ever see in scenario 1.

With a posted wait time of 60 minutes, only those willing to wait 60-100 minutes will enter the queue, so we get 313 guests entering the standby queue between 9:15 and 9:30. Again, however, only 125 board the ride from the standby queue, leaving 688 in line, which represents a wait time of 85 minutes.

With a posted wait of 85 minutes, we actually hit the FastPass equilibrium. only people willing to wait 90-100 minutes are entering the ride (125 per 15 minutes), and 125 people are riding from standby per 15 minutes, so the line remains at 688 people, and the wait time stays at 85 minutes the rest of the day, as you can see below.

View attachment 546772
This is obviously an oversimplification, but hopefully it explains why wait times HAVE to be longer with FastPass.

TL : DR, FP increases wait times because people who wouldn't have waited the posted wait time are cutting the line.

Very thoughtful analysis. Do the wait times change or converge if the distribution of people in the "wait groups" changes? I would think it's non-linear (as you have in this example) but I don't have any data to back it up.

 

[CastAStone]

Very thoughtful analysis. Do the wait times change or converge if the distribution of people in the "wait groups" changes? I would think it's non-linear (as you have in this example) but I don't have any data to back it up.

The equilibrium point is based on whenever the number of guests entering the standby queue equals the number leaving (riding) from the standby queue. Changes in the distribution of people would impact that for sure. I haven’t the foggiest idea how to make a guess as to how many people are in each wait group without having real life data to look at, so for simplicities sake I made them all the same.

They won’t ever converge, however, so long as there are enough people in the queue to keep the wait time above 10 minutes. Because then The people who won’t even wait 10 minutes are walking away in the Standby only scenario, but a portion of them are riding with FP in the FP scenario, making the line longer for everyone else, eventually driving a higher wait time.

They would only converge if few enough people were entering the queue to keep the wait time at 5 minutes in the FP scenario. We see this on low attendance days on like Living with the Land between meal times (and then it surges at lunch time when everyone comes for Sunshine Seasons; without FP, it very possibly would barely surge at all).