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Fastpass+, a solution to "overwhelmingly negative" responses from families
- Thread starter napeterson18
- Start date
flynnibus
Premium Member
I know.. but again the issue is 'resolution'. You need a ton of people to actually do that beyond 'spot checks'. Simply put.. a person can only be checking one thing at a time, and with 30+ attractions happening concurrently every minute of every hour of every day... unless you have dozens of people all day long, it's all samples, build a reusable behavior model, and then extrapolate. That's why the app represents so much potential for them.. it would increase their number of reference points by orders of magnitude and allows them to dynamically update beyond what the behavior model predicted. If you have one or two 'spies' in the park, they may be able to adjust the top level crowd lever.. which would scale all the other attraction models, but they can't scale themselves to be providing real feedback on all 'actual' times across the entire park all the time. The lines users gives them directly reported info, not just the scaled model.
Let's put some perspective of scale into the problem.. How much volume is really there if you have a true consistent sampling of a park like the MK? Take some rough numbers..
25 attractions, three measurements, standby, actual, fp distribution, one sample per 30mins, park open 14hrs a day = 2100 samples a day. If I boast I have 'hundreds of thousands of samples'.. say even 500,000. That is only 238 days worth of data. Not even a single season... and that's just one park.
The data resolution is not true logging of all history.. it's samples, models, and extrapolation.
flynnibus
Premium Member
Thanks for chiming in Len
Sounds like you've built 'inclusion' for FP+ so it doesn't break the tool... I'd call it 'compatibility' more than anything. The FP+ recommendations sounds interesting, but not all that compelling IMO.
Why do you bury this personalized touring tool so far down in the website? It's interesting in the 'which plan is for you..' texts the Personalized plans aren't really represented. You are positioning all the canned plans first.. and then offering the personalized plans as the 'last resort'. The personalized plans are the last in the drop down.. they are the last in the list.. and they aren't represented well in the guidance texts.
Compare this to positioning the Personalized Plans as the first recommendation (hey, its optimized for you!), and then offering the canned reports as alternatives if the personalized plan is too much or too involved.
This is your most advanced solution... including the ability to dynamically refresh it.. yet it's not promoted as the lead product in the category. Why is that?
Agreed - there is always a place for reviews/recommendations in that space. Disney has a vested interest in promoting it's attractions and would be stupid to try to downplay the value of an attraction.. else why have it to start with?
PolynesianPrincess
Well-Known Member
If Disney wants everyone to be on a level playing field as far as getting a chance to go on their favorite attractions, then they need to do away with FP completely. Right nowm if you don't get to the parks early, you miss out of getting FPs. With FP+ if you dont book ahead online to reserve you FP time, and everything books up, you still don't get a FP. I don't think they are making it any better or easier for people to get FP, I think they are just changing how it's done. This will not simplify anything. People gripe enough about having to make ADR's ahead of time... people are going to gripe about this too. Disney did fine without FP and I think they could survive again without it.
We go to WDW 2-3 times a year. We maximize our use of FP to the point where we sometimes have upwards of 7+ a day. We're going to give this FP+ thing a go when it finally rolls out. If we find we are able to see less attractions this way, being limited to 3 daily, then we will begin to vacation elsewhere. I love Disney as much as the next person on these here forums but what they are doing lately (decreasing EMH, limiting FPs, raising prices of tickets, food, souvenirs and not giving us more attractions (with the exception of FLE but before that it had been ages since anythingt new came along) decreasing quality of dining, etc..) isn't making the money spent worth it anymore, IMO.
We go to WDW 2-3 times a year. We maximize our use of FP to the point where we sometimes have upwards of 7+ a day. We're going to give this FP+ thing a go when it finally rolls out. If we find we are able to see less attractions this way, being limited to 3 daily, then we will begin to vacation elsewhere. I love Disney as much as the next person on these here forums but what they are doing lately (decreasing EMH, limiting FPs, raising prices of tickets, food, souvenirs and not giving us more attractions (with the exception of FLE but before that it had been ages since anythingt new came along) decreasing quality of dining, etc..) isn't making the money spent worth it anymore, IMO.
nc_disneyfreak
Well-Known Member
my two cents as if anyone cares lol....im a newbie to WDW only having gone in april 2010 and april 2012...i should mention that i like vacations lol, and i like planning as well... about 8 months before we went for the first time, i got on sites like these and others and i went on the information from people like the posters on here. I might add that our WDW trip went really smooth! If you take the time to go on a trip to WDW, you should know going in that its not like other vacations...if you dont have some sort of itenerary, it will eat you alive. From the 4 diff. parks, Dwntown disney, waterparks, mini golf etc...and the bus system, it can be overwhelming. oh yeah and ADRs and fastpasses too. Our family never felt that fastpass was too hard to use. Hollywood Studios for example, we got in the park, i told my family to head to tower of terror and wait at the start of the line...i hauled but to Toy Story midway mania and got our fastpasses...went back and rode tower, then rockin' roller coaster, then did toy story! easy as pie...then we had the rest of the day to go on rides as we pleased....now we dont use fastpass a WHOLE lot, but to say it is a terrifying experience is dumb...
wdwgreek
Well-Known Member
so no one in my family has a smart phone, so how will this work for us? I know they have Kiosks, but i feel like this makes the vacation difficult for non-techies like myself. Also so if you book your fastpasses in advance, if i plan a vacation say a month away, and all the fastpasses are "booked" am I out of luck? Is this going to become like Disney Dining were I have to call to reserve being able to go on Splash without waiting a huge time a year in adavanced? Thats not very condusive to my theme park expierence!
What does this mean for the resident annual pass holder? I really hope Disney doesn't count us out. I too spend thousands of dollars a year for my family's annual passes, not to mention the additional revenue spent on food, snacks, and drinks. We don't plan anything other than occasionally attending the occasional special concert etc. We go on a whim, which is the beauty of being an annual pass holder. It doesn't mean we deserve to enjoy our experience any less than the once a year vacationer. I like the FP system the way it is, BUT, I also understand it for what it is. The luxury of a very limited wait, in exchange for a longer one or visiting less busy attractions in between. The system is not complicated or scary at all. Thats just stupid! And i'm no big expert here, this is my first month in my first year as an annual season ticket holder. I just relocated to the state. But I use the system the same way now with four teenagers as I did as a vacationer with four young ones years ago. We ALL go to one ride, get our pass, then ALL go to another and wait in line. Seperating to grab passes while another starts waiting in line is not going to speed things up enough to risk loosing your family!! I do have the app on my phone and it is handy to check wait times in other parks or attractions far away, but I don't want it to become a necessary addition to my day, or having to stop and wait in another line at a kiosk. I really hope they take into consideration people who don't or can't plan Fp's so far in advance. Who knows what days in the next year my family and I will go, let alone what parks, so forget knowing what rides we decide to visit. If FP's are all almost gone before the gates even open, I won't be renewing my passes next year. I don't mind waiting in line for Tower of Terror for an hour when I know I can march right on Aerosmith when we are done. Waiting an hour+ for both. No thanks.
menamechris
Well-Known Member
Seriously?
G00fyDad
Well-Known Member
As I tell my wife (who barely knows how to work the remote control for the TV)... "Welcome to the future. Come in and stay a while."
The FP+ may, and according some insiders here, will phase out FP. All this means is that you will need to go to one of the kiosks and get your FP's. Just like you do now, but the kiosks will be for multiple rides and in one central location.
luv
Well-Known Member
Oh, my gosh!
It's Len Testa!! Have to pick my jaw up off the ground.
I am a wee bit star-struck.
*swoons*
Pre Space Mtn, my dad's touring plan was, "everybody naturally turns right or goes straight ahead" so we turned left into Adventureland or Liberty Square, did CBJ and ate in Frontierland, then back to Tomorrowland and then Fantasyland last.
When I came back the first time in 2009 I knew it would be a different experience so I researched and ended with a set of customized touring plans ( Thanks Len). Didn't really use them but it was nice to have them for back up. Luckily it was light crowds after Thanksgiving and my wife and I just had a blast doing whatever came next!
luv
Well-Known Member
Aside from Marty Sklar, I can't imagine wanting to see anyone else on the board. Len The Planning God Testa!
I was on the fainting couch for a few minutes there, but have recovered.
*fans self*
*drinks some water*
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
Current information (subject to change) is that you'll be able to book your FP experiences online before you leave. If those experiences work for you then you should be set, no need for a smart phone for FP+. (There will be smart phone apps that help with other aspects.) After you arrive, you could make changes to your FP+ selections if something "better" opens up. Alternatively, some kiosks will be available for those without smart phones. When it comes to changing FP+ selections after arrival, it seems obvious to me that someone with a smart phone will have an advantage over those that don't.
As best we can tell, FP+ will be like ADRs. Certain FP+ experiences are much more popular than others. These are sure to fill-up as soon as they are released. Just like (for example) it's difficult to get an ADR for Cinderella's Royal Table unless you book it 180 days in advance, it's likely to be extremely difficult to get a FP+ for (for example) TSM unless you book it 60 days in advance.
FP+ will require more advanced planning.
spaceghost
Well-Known Member
We seem to be arguing the same thing as far as their methods. However, I think that where we differ is our opinion of the value of their results. I think that the sampling that is done, combined with their behavior analysis, crowd level estimates, pathing algorithms, etc. provide for some fairly accurate results. I would consider what they are doing to be a little more advanced than just an "educated guess."
copcarguyp71
Well-Known Member
I think that it is not a simple as what you postulate (sarcastically or not) but rather the fact that Disney has totally lost touch with their guests in favor of tracking your habits and spending right down to the last cent so that their marketing department can find ways to squeeze every last cent out of you. Sarcasm not taken into account I do not think they are intentionally screwing up guests experiences but unintentionally doing so due to complacency and allowing book smarts to over rule real world logistics.
flynnibus
Premium Member
Go back to what I originally replied to... "I still would love to see Len do some serious data analysis of crowd behavior histories. Because I really think he's the only one doing it."
How can you do 'serious analysis of crowd behavior histories' - when you don't have the data samples and resolution? As you agreed, their product is based on models and predicting the future variables. I said they are not extrapolating from a historical data set, but rather building a model, and then using inputs to predict the expected crowd behavior in the future. They then use submissions to update the predictions with 'actuals' as the time comes.
Maybe you took offense to my wording.. but the point remains the same. The estimates are based on prediction using educated guesses (guesses.. informed assumptions.. you pick the wording you want) on the inputs.. not actual hard data extrapolation. They replace their lack of hard data with models to estimate the data. Tying it back to the original post I replied to.. they'd be hard to 'analyze histories' beyond the actual data points they've collected. Everything else would again be an estimate based on modeling or interpolation between the real data they have.
Going back to the scale point.. even if I had a million data points.. that's not much data when we are talking about time resolutions measured in an hour or less over the entire property and all attractions.
spaceghost
Well-Known Member
I guess I am not sure as to how they are arriving at their educated guesses without analyzing historical data? I think that we agree that they do predictive modeling, which is based in part on historical attendance and wait time data. I'm not a statistician, but I think that you may be overestimating the number of raw data points necessary to develop meaningful information, especially given the relatively controlled environments of the Disney theme parks. The nature of the beast makes it something that can be predicted, if you know the trends to look for.
flynnibus
Premium Member
You use the past data points to create your model. Once you have that model.. you estimate the point in the future based on your model's inputs. But those inputs are based on estimates themselves.. things like events, school calendars, etc. The point is the wait time predictions are all estimates based on assumptions fed into a estimation model.. not actual measurements.
The data points are used to initially build the model, later test the model, and then to provide people 'corrective' information when dealing with the 'time=recent' window.
The point of all that is.. the amount of data they have about the past is relatively small compared to the complete picture. So if you say "I want to do a historical analysis of crowds" - they are limited purely by the data they actually sampled - Everything else is an theorized estimation.. not an actual measurement.
Any such 'historical analysis' would simply be playing their model forward and back.. not an actual analysis of data collected. That's not analysis of history.. that's simply a simulation based on your hypothesis/model