FastPass+’s Possible Impact on Standby Lines

[GoofGoof]

I don't spent that many days, but if I get an AP it is to do a 10 day vacation and then next year just before it runs out do another 10 day vacation. If 20 FP were the limit per quarter, I couldn't get FP+ for each day of my trip. Hopefully, if I stay in a resort hotel, I can get length of stay FP no matter what tickets I have.

My guess is if you book a room through Disney they would give you 3 a day for the length of your stay. I have no proof of that, just an assumption. I know a lot of visitors from Europe come for 2 weeks or longer at a time and they are a demographic that WDW cannot ignore. The big question is if you stay off property for 2 weeks or longer and buy an annual pass will they limit you? I guess they could just limit FL AP holders only to so many per quarter, but that doesn't seem fair.

 

[JimboJones123]

Do CMs get the same restrictions as APs?

 

[RandomPrincess]

I haven't seen anything about how this will effect CMs? I'm guessing Disney hasn't put out anything yet.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I agree standby lines for "new" FP attractions will get SLIGHTLY longer.

But I also believe that under FP+, standby lines for existing E-Tickets will get much SHORTER.

I base my theory on the assumption that the average guests currently gets 3 FPs today (I'm very experienced in gaming the current system and can usually get 5 or 6 a day. Novices may only get 2, 1, or none at all. That would make the current average about 3...the same as Disney plans to distribute under FP+)

So if Disney is distributing roughly the same number of FPs as now, but then doubling or tripling the number of places to use them, overall standby lines should go down. (Conversely, for your theory to work that ALL standby lines would grow, Disney would need to double or triple the average number of FP's each guest receives. But they're not. They're only giving 3 to each guest.)

The biggest difference between the old and new systems is Disney's ability to limit your choice of FPs. Under the current system, guests would choose to use their FPs at the E-Tickets with long lines (like Space Mtn or Soarin), driving up those standby waits.

Under the new system, Disney has the ability to distribute fewer FPs for Space Mountain (shortening standby) while distributing more FPs for something like Haunted Mansion (lengthening standby)

That will suck for HM fans and be great for SM fans.

But you also have to assume that most guests will want to do both attractions.

So in theory, a current 60 minute wait for Space Mountain could drop to 40 minutes, and a current 10 minute wait for Haunted Mansion could grow to 30 minutes.

A guest who visits both attractions is still waiting a combined total of 70 minutes for both attractions. Disney has just shifted the lines around with smoke and mirrors (while making the visitor feel like they get a special perk by being able to breeze through the line on a 3rd attraction like Pooh or Dumbo using a FP)

As you point out, the capacity of each attraction remains the same with our without FP.

Under the old FP, people who knew how to game the system had an advantage over those who didn't.

At least for now, it appears that under the new system everyone will have the same advantage since Disney is giving everyone the same number of FPs (assuming everyone claims their 3 FPs) and limiting their choices. That would create moderate lines at all attractions. Just as it would be with no FP at all.

I don't think Disney is married to that "3 or 4" per guest #. More importantly, I know that not every guest will follow suit either. The current learning curve for Fastpass still results in many people not understanding the advantages of using it. I can't believe that these problems will go away with a more involved system.

I suspect that the wait times for things like Soarin', Toy Story Mania and other popular attractions will remain consistent (assuming FP and FP+ distribution for these attractions are equal). However, it will be harder to get these attractions day of. This is because demand for these Fastpasses exceeds supply, so the argument that people that would otherwise get one during the day will no longer want one isn't really relevant.

Really, the solution to this is to eliminate the preferential treatment/advanced bookings. You can book things day of, and that's it, or if you want to book primo parade viewing you can pay for that - provided the location you're sitting/standing wasn't previously available to guests.

The initial assessment of this is correct - it's creating artificially long standby lines and then selling shorter waits as a perk.

 

[RSoxNo1]

At MK, the FP+ system translates relatively well. (Assuming they fix the bugs!) I've crunched the numbers and FP+ capacity seems to be OK at MK. Guests should be able to get 3 FP+ experiences for MK at a cost of some longer Standby lines. All 3 might not be everyone's first choice but each guest should be able to score at least 1 "good" FP+, probably 2 most days.

Until we see how people change their behavior in response to the longer Standby lines on the attractions that have been added to FP+, it's impossible to clearly predict how long the Standby line will be at (for example) Haunted Mansion or Pirates of the Caribbean. I don't want to delve into a lot of queuing or game theory but am confident that the average Standby lines for HM and POTC (among others) will be longer.

The FP+ situation doesn't look too good at Epcot, DHS, or DAK. Let's face it, MK has a lot of "good" attractions. Even with its much higher average attendance, MK should be able to handle FP+ demand. But what can be done at the other 3 theme parks, which have significantly fewer "good" attractions. So far, I've been unable to figure out how WDW will make FP+ work well at Epcot, DHS, and DAK. The only advantage at these parks is that most people treat them like half-day parks anyway. (Ignoring the WS which really doesn't have attractions.) Conceptually, 1/2 of their attendance could occur during the first half of the day while the other 1/2 of their attendance could occur during the second half of the day.

Or you could stick with the current system when guests can get 3-6 without issue. On any given day, that park has 10 different attractions that can utilize Fastpass, and on high crowd days that number goes up even more. Comparitively, at Epcot rarely do you need a Fastpass for more than 2 attractions, 3 or 4 at DAK and 3 or 4 at DHS.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I would be surprised if the endgame is only being able to use FP+ at one park per day.

This shouldn't be that difficult for them to figure out. The current system allows for it because distribution is based on time, the new system seems like it will be based loosely on attendance.

 

[RSoxNo1]

The key at other parks will be the groupings of attractions.

Take DHS. During testing, guests were limited to one FP+ from a group that included Toy Story Mania, RNR and LMA. With average daily attendance around 25,000, TSM and RNR have more than enough capacity for each guest to ride once. Using hourly capacity of 1200 and 1800 over an average 12 hour operating day, that's 36,000 riders combined.

Then factor in:
- People getting FP+ for LMA
- FP+ which go unused
- Guests who don't use FP+

All of my reading about FP+ suggests that the advance ride reservations will be available only to guest staying at Disney resorts. Passholders (locals) will also get some allocation--I think 20 days per year has been pulled from the Terms of Service.

I see this lining up in such a way that those who are eligible to make reservations in advance will have little difficulty getting exactly what they want--as long as they secure their times before the park opens. Could be weeks in advance or as late as 8:59am from a smartphone while riding the parking lot tram.

When the gates open, day guests without Disney hotel reservations will head to the in-park computer terminals--or similarly use smartphones if they use GPS to control access--and begin to peck away at remaining availability.

On the attraction side, I think there will be plenty of capacity for resort guests to secure their ride time right up to park opening. Some time slots may fill up but overall capacity will still remain on most days. Certain experiences like Wishes or Illuminations viewing may require more planning since those are one-off events.

Overall the system will require adjustment in how guests tour. Those most immediately impacted will probably be people who get multiple FPs for the same attraction one-after-the-other. But I don't think most of the doom and gloom scenarios will play out as feared. In my humble opinion, the system's (potential) shortcomings are trumped by the greater control over ride times and the elimination of FP ticket runners.

What I saw was a grouping that was just TSM and Lights Motors Action, Rock 'n' Roller Coaster was in the other group.

 

[RSoxNo1]

IMHO, TSM, ToT, RnRC, and ST are DHS's marque attractions and the only attractions at DHS that should have FP. (Unless you feel no attractions should have FP.) Depending on what numbers you trust, combined capacity is around 6,500 guests per hour. (Reported capacities for some of these attractions vary wildly.) Assuming a 12-hour operating day, this equates to a daily capacity of 78,000. Not all capacity is allocated to FP. Reports vary so I'll assume a middle ground of 55%. This means there are about 43,000 FP available for these 4 attractions.

DHS averages 26,600 guests per day. On busier days, attendance will be much higher. With longer park hours, guests should be able to average 1-to-2 "good" FP+ for DHS's 4 most popular attractions. Disney will have to create a lot of "filler" FP+ (think LMA) in order to meet the "3 FP+ per person" requirement.

Let's also recognize that the Standby line for TSM can be longer than the combined Standby lines for ToT, RnRC, and ST. TSM FP+ are really "valuable".

Since I know how to game the current FP system, I know how to get a lot more than 3 FP per day at DHS. I'm sure most experienced WDW guests can do the same. Experienced WDW guests will lose as a result of FP+. Inexperienced WDW guests will gain.

Since MK has so many "good" attractions, I suspect guests will be happier with their 3 FP+ choices at MK.

Another solution to this is for a 24 year old park to have more than 6 rides.

 

[RSoxNo1]

They probably need to restrict AP holders to a limited number of days. If not you could just go on and book FP+ for every day of the year at the 60 day mark just in case you might show up that day. I am sure most people wouldn't bother, but you never know. Question is, how many days is the limit?

The rumor for AP holders was a select number of FP+ reservations per quarter. Say that # is 20, I'd be curious if those could all be used on a long weekend.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Or you could stick with the current system when guests can get 3-6 without issue. On any given day, that park has 10 different attractions that can utilize Fastpass, and on high crowd days that number goes up even more. Comparitively, at Epcot rarely do you need a Fastpass for more than 2 attractions, 3 or 4 at DAK and 3 or 4 at DHS.

What TDO should do is either limit FP to only a few key attractions or completely do away with FP. However, neither approach allows TDO to "sell" FP+ as a new perk.

One of the most blatantly manipulative aspects of FP+ is that TDO will use FP+ to artificially inflate Standby lines so that unsuspecting "guests" think they need FP+ for attractions that wouldn't normally need them. Popular attractions such as PotC and HM simply don't need FP+; they operate more efficiently without them. With FP+ installed, newly created Standby lines will grow unnecessarily long so TDO can cynically trick their "guests" into thinking these bogus FP+ actually have value.

The net effect is that, as a whole, people are going to stand in line for exactly the same amount of time they used to stand in line before FP+. The difference is that they will have 3 relatively short waits for their 3 FP+ experiences but the Standby lines will be longer for everything else with FP+. In the end, FP+ does nothing to shorten people's waits because FP+ does nothing to increase ride capacity.

TDO spent $1.5B so it could provide us with essentially the same attractions and waits that we had before. Sadly, we collectively gain nothing from FP+.

 

[Longhairbear]

What TDO should do is either limit FP to only a few key attractions or completely do away with FP. However, neither approach allows TDO to "sell" FP+ as a new perk.

One of the most blatantly manipulative aspects of FP+ is that TDO will use FP+ to artificially inflate Standby lines so that unsuspecting "guests" think they need FP+ for attractions that wouldn't normally need them. Popular attractions such as PotC and HM simply don't need FP+; they operate more efficiently without them. With FP+ installed, newly created Standby lines will grow unnecessarily long so TDO can cynically trick their "guests" into thinking these bogus FP+ actually have value.

The net effect is that, as a whole, people are going to stand in line for exactly the same amount of time they used to stand in line before FP+. The difference is that they will have 3 relatively short waits for their 3 FP+ experiences but the Standby lines will be longer for everything else with FP+. In the end, FP+ does nothing to shorten people's waits because FP+ does nothing to increase ride capacity.

TDO spent $1.5B so it could provide us with essentially the same attractions and waits that we had before. Sadly, we collectively gain nothing from FP+.

One would think that the sharp pencil types would ask why are all these guests in line, they should be in a store buying stuff.

 

[rricks26]

Being an ex attractions cm, I hope people recognize the load ratio of fp to standby. Used to operate two high volume fp attractions. The load ratio is generally 80% fp to 20% standby. Or you use a number system. When you let 4 standby you let 16 fp. If the fp line is backed up, then you do a 90% fp to 10% standby or, you multiply the number of standby people let in by 10. So you let a family of 4 in stand by you let 40 fp in. One attraction did the percentage system because the fp collector was also the person that told you what row to go in. The number system was used in attractions where the fp collector wasn't the person that assigns rows.

Also, guests who have no intention of riding a ride will get a fp just because they can. Even if the line is only 20 mins for a ride. Used to work living with the land at Epcot which is always either a walk on or 15-20 mins. Guests would automatically grab a fp for it despite it being a walk on most of the day even if it had no line at the time they got a fp. Guests like the almost VIP privilege that fp gets them. Or, they think a fp is needed to even ride a ride. Your average Disney guest with no knowledge of the parks is completely oblivious to the whole fp system.

People in the stand by line get very frustrated seeing all the fp guests going through and the stand by hardly moving. At one attraction I worked at, stand by guests would practically riot over it.

 

[Tom Morrow]

^^ I think that's the thing, very few guests are actually aware of what the intended ratio is and how it really works. They love Fastpass because of the perceived "VIP advantage", but what they don't realize is that 80% of everyone riding that attraction also used Fastpass (on a moderate to busy day).

 

[RSoxNo1]

What TDO should do is either limit FP to only a few key attractions or completely do away with FP. However, neither approach allows TDO to "sell" FP+ as a new perk.

One of the most blatantly manipulative aspects of FP+ is that TDO will use FP+ to artificially inflate Standby lines so that unsuspecting "guests" think they need FP+ for attractions that wouldn't normally need them. Popular attractions such as PotC and HM simply don't need FP+; they operate more efficiently without them. With FP+ installed, newly created Standby lines will grow unnecessarily long so TDO can cynically trick their "guests" into thinking these bogus FP+ actually have value.

The net effect is that, as a whole, people are going to stand in line for exactly the same amount of time they used to stand in line before FP+. The difference is that they will have 3 relatively short waits for their 3 FP+ experiences but the Standby lines will be longer for everything else with FP+. In the end, FP+ does nothing to shorten people's waits because FP+ does nothing to increase ride capacity.

TDO spent $1.5B so it could provide us with essentially the same attractions and waits that we had before. Sadly, we collectively gain nothing from FP+.

Personally, I think Fastpass under the old system (late returns) was the best approach that has been employed. I understand the problem it presents with the late returns but it was the least damaging from an ops/guest satisfaction standpoint. A way around that is extending the window to 2 hours or 3 hours (or even have it vary by attraction).

As for what attractions should utilize Fastpass, it should be based on expected and actual crowds. If an attraction is going to have more than a 30 minute wait without Fastpass, Fastpass should be turned on for the day. I would also argue that there is no show on Disney property that should utilize Fastpass for anything other than preferential seating. There isn't a "World of Color" in Florida that has the demand/supply issues that necessitate Fastpass distribution.

Back to the original suggestion of extending the Fastpass return window - I could see attractions where the return window is more than 2 hours out sticking to a 1 hour window. Anything that's in the 1-2 hours out range could have a 2 hour window, and anything that's less than an hour out can have a 3 hour window. Think of usage, and that makes quite a bit of sense.

 

[tjkraz]

What I saw was a grouping that was just TSM and Lights Motors Action, Rock 'n' Roller Coaster was in the other group.

Not when I tested in December...

 

[RSoxNo1]

Not when I tested in December...

Sorry, I checked my notes and I had it wrong. My bad.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

It does put Disney in an incredibly strong position. WDW guests want to believe "Disney" is a benevolent entity, how they imagine Walt Disney was. They instinctively want to trust "Disney". It's about family entertainment, right? What's not wholesome about family entertainment? And that's where I get most upset at TWDC executives. They are taking advantage of this trust in order to manipulate their "guests" in ways that would make the ordinary person ashamed. TWDC has no shame. To TWDC, shame is a quant 19th Century concept that doesn't belong in the 21st Century boardroom.

THIS IS EXACTLY HOW I FEEL ABOUT TWDC AND THIS WHOLE PROJECT.

It's a perfect summation.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

We are going to wait this all out for a few years. We used to be twice a year guests, and that went to once a year, to haven't been in going on 3 years. That's for various reasons, mostly economics. We do have DVC memberships at VWL, and have been using our points mostly at DLR.

We are hearing more and more people say this literally every single day.

I can't fathom the concept of Disney knowing this, and then reacting with NextGen. It seems absolutely counter-productive.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

My guess? Probably in some form... read on.

They may get smart and assume a grace period.. and say 'if you have a hotel reservation for those days, we'll assume you'll have tickets' and later let you link the ticket to the existing profile.

Or, they could even assume an even GREATER grace period and say 'If you have no ticket on file, and no room reservation, we'll let you book up to n days of FP+ - once you link a room or a ticket, we will let you book your actual number of days' (and maybe even a few more if we need to account for add-ons). n could be 1-3 for instance.

Disney knows how many people don't advance purchase tickets (see.. this is where that Data Mining comes into play...) and should know how big of an issue this potentially is. There are far too many scenarios where people need to exchange tickets, buy onsite, buy more, etc. Additionally, for years, Disney will have people with old ticket media they may not be able to link their tickets (hopefully they can add existing MYW tickets to help minimize this..). Disney will not want to discourage people when buying tickets.. so they need to be soft in this area.

If it were me I would propose a model like this:

- If you have no tickets on file.. assume they can book 2 days worth
- If you have a room reservation on file.. assume they can book length of stay + 2 (grace period)
- If you have tickets on the account (and provide a way to manually add a ticket..).. assume they can book for length of ticket + 2 (grace period)
- If you have both room and tickets on file, assume the greater of the two
- If you have a AP.. they have an allocation of days they can use
- If you are DVC, treat like a room reservation
- If you have an AP and room reservation, assume whichever is greater, their allocation or room stay
- Provide a way for customer service to authorize a # of days

I think that covers most scenarios...

Currently, you can book ADR's without confirming you have tickets in any way... I'm wondering if they won't just keep the same policy in place. There are various reasons why people might not buy tickets till they arrive at the gate... I can't imagine they'd be stupid enough to alienate those people.

With a supposedly "dynamic" and "real-time" system like NextGen, it's possible that as FP windows approach for names that don't have active tickets tied to them (say, a couple hours before?) those FP's could go back into the pool to be grabbed by someone else attempting to get the exact same FP.

But BOY do a lot of things have to go right for that to work smoothly.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

Just thinking about Astro Orbiter and how it's standby line will be affected. It's slow as it is. Didn't they try to put FP on it at one time but took it off because it was so cumbersome?

That's exactly what they did for HM... They figured out it wasn't needed, so they removed it and all the machines.

Since then, they've not only added it back, but spent tens of thousands of dollars on a que for the exact reason that they know it's going to make more people stand in line longer BECAUSE THEY ALREADY TRIED THIS ONCE!!!!!!

HEY, TDO....