FastPass+’s Possible Impact on Standby Lines

[Lil Fort]

...I think they should hold back a certian amount and release them thru out the day.....X amount per hour. Then you realistically have a chance to score a FP for something like TSMM. You have every hour to try and score. Although I am, not sure how the system could handle such demand...

Logging into the MyMagic app every hour just so I can try to score a FP for TSMM doesn't sound very magical to me. What happened to slowing down and stopping to take in the sights and smell the roses when you are on vacation? What happened to just relaxing when you are on vacation for that matter? No matter which way you slice it, FP+ just doesn't appeal to me. I want to relax on my vacation, not run around from reservation to reservation and constantly try to squeeze things in that I couldn't get in the first place because I didn't decide 180 days out that I wanted to ride TSMM at 4:30 on Friday.

It sounds way too much like work to me... Ugh!!

 

[ParentsOf4]

The only problem I have with this is that the test were done on a limited number of guest. How well does that translate into over a 100,000 guest per day across four parks?

At MK, the FP+ system translates relatively well. (Assuming they fix the bugs!) I've crunched the numbers and FP+ capacity seems to be OK at MK. Guests should be able to get 3 FP+ experiences for MK at a cost of some longer Standby lines. All 3 might not be everyone's first choice but each guest should be able to score at least 1 "good" FP+, probably 2 most days.

Until we see how people change their behavior in response to the longer Standby lines on the attractions that have been added to FP+, it's impossible to clearly predict how long the Standby line will be at (for example) Haunted Mansion or Pirates of the Caribbean. I don't want to delve into a lot of queuing or game theory but am confident that the average Standby lines for HM and POTC (among others) will be longer.

The FP+ situation doesn't look too good at Epcot, DHS, or DAK. Let's face it, MK has a lot of "good" attractions. Even with its much higher average attendance, MK should be able to handle FP+ demand. But what can be done at the other 3 theme parks, which have significantly fewer "good" attractions. So far, I've been unable to figure out how WDW will make FP+ work well at Epcot, DHS, and DAK. The only advantage at these parks is that most people treat them like half-day parks anyway. (Ignoring the WS which really doesn't have attractions.) Conceptually, 1/2 of their attendance could occur during the first half of the day while the other 1/2 of their attendance could occur during the second half of the day.

 

[John]

Logging into the MyMagic app every hour just so I can try to score a FP for TSMM doesn't sound very magical to me. What happened to slowing down and stopping to take in the sights and smell the roses when you are on vacation? What happened to just relaxing when you are on vacation for that matter? No matter which way you slice it, FP+ just doesn't appeal to me. I want to relax on my vacation, not run around from reservation to reservation and constantly try to squeeze things in that I couldn't get in the first place because I didn't decide 180 days out that I wanted to ride TSMM at 4:30 on Friday.

It sounds way too much like work to me... Ugh!!

Hey I am with you....but this thing is here and going to be for the near future. Just trying to figure it out like everyone else. Is it was my choice FP would exsist period. I dont see the lines being any shorter with FP or with FP+ No matter what happens TSMM, Sorin TT etc. will still have very long waits. They always did.....always will.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Will it though? These same folks probably dont realize what the most popular rides are...will they realize they need to book their reservations the morning of their "open window"? How will they feel when they realize they have been shut out of the most popular rides when they get to WDW.

You're thinking like an experienced WDW guest. Most WDW guests don't know as much as you do. Most people will be happy to receive a FP+ for (for example) POTC or HM, never mind that they didn't need them in the past. They will see the people standing in the Standby line as they walk past, know they are riding an attraction they wanted to ride, and that will be good enough for them.

You and I will know that a Peter Pan FP+ is more "valuable" than a POTC FP+. That will be our opportunity to game the system. We'll pick FP+ not based on what attractions we like the most, but based on our knowledge of which will save us the most time.

 

[BeautifulTomorrow]

So in the opinion of all you knowledgeable people, will FP+ lines be longer, shorter, or the same as the existing FP lines???

 

[Lil Fort]

Hey I am with you....but this thing is here and going to be for the near future. Just trying to figure it out like everyone else. Is it was my choice FP would exsist period. I dont see the lines being any shorter with FP or with FP+ No matter what happens TSMM, Sorin TT etc. will still have very long waits. They always did.....always will.

Sad but true. Disneyland is looking better all of the time. If they only had a campground I'd be making reservations now.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Logging into the MyMagic app every hour just so I can try to score a FP for TSMM doesn't sound very magical to me. What happened to slowing down and stopping to take in the sights and smell the roses when you are on vacation? What happened to just relaxing when you are on vacation for that matter? No matter which way you slice it, FP+ just doesn't appeal to me. I want to relax on my vacation, not run around from reservation to reservation and constantly try to squeeze things in that I couldn't get in the first place because I didn't decide 180 days out that I wanted to ride TSMM at 4:30 on Friday.

It sounds way too much like work to me... Ugh!!

Think of it this way.

Today with FP, you need to arrive at the front gate before opening, walk quickly to your #1 FP attraction, leaving your family behind so you can get a decent FP return time. Then, watch your printed FP window so you can sprint over to the next FP attraction before rejoining you family to experience your first FP experience. Repeat cycle.

I prefer the current FP because, IMHO, it rewards hard work and I was raised to value hard work. However, I'm the only one in my neighborhood who still does my own yard work. Given the options of doing the "FP shuffle" or booking their FP+ experiences from their favorite electronic devices, I suspect most will prefer booking electronically.

 

[doctornick]

Additionally, the terms of service Disney posted has language that sets FP+ reservations to be 'one park per day'. And in the tests, people were picking 3 or 4 choices for their FP+ reservations. That's how you get to this point.

Basically Disney has set it up so you have a certain number of FP+ 'credits' you can use per day. But you can only use them within one park per day, and you can schedule your credits to FP+ reservations in advance and day of. In the day of, you can continue to move your credits to different reservations if you need to, but all your 'credits' expire at the end of the day - they don't carry over. I use the term 'credit' as my own language to describe your allowance of uses per day.. Disney isn't using that language.

Disney has not explicitly said how many 'credits' each guest will get, if there will be variation between guests, or what. That point is based on their earlier tests and speculation on how Disney will monetize the system.

The one thing that is not entirely clear -- and is a significant question -- is, once they convert entirely to FP+, whether any Fastpasses will be available "day of" in the parks. Certainly, it seems that there will be a limit of 3-4 FP+ per day in one park that are scheduled. That doesn't preclude the ability to get additional FP+ in the park day of (as currently happens with FP) using your RFID and the kiosks or the online app. I don't know if they would allow it or if they will just have a hard limit of 3-4 per day but I haven't seen anything that specifically excludes this possibility.

 

[thehowiet]

I also assume that FP+ will indeed increase the wait times for the standby lines. However, the possibility of giving a different number of Fast Passes per day to guests based on "class" (let's just call it what it really is...) has also been mentioned. Meaning, Deluxe resort guests will get a certain number, Moderate resort guests will get fewer FPs than Deluxe resort guests, and so on. If that is the case, which as far as I know hasn't been confirmed yet, I think it's difficult to determine the average number of total FPs that will be distributed each day with FP+. This number may also be adjusted depending on expected attendance, again just a guess on my part.

It does indeed seem to be a bad solution to a non-existing guest problem. However, from Disney's perspective it may be looked at as a solution (not saying a good solution...) to a number of things they see as problems, including less than desirable hotel occupancy levels, CM scheduling, etc. I don't think any of us should fall for the idea that the primary goal of FP+ and all of NextGen is to increase guest satisfaction. IMO the primary goal of all of this is to make Disney's wallet fatter, which may or may not result in higher levels of guest satisfaction.

 

[ParentsOf4]

So in the opinion of all you knowledgeable people, will FP+ lines be longer, shorter, or the same as the existing FP lines???

In terms of the actual FP+ line, there is no information to suggest one way or the other. It all depends on whether WDW issues more or less FP+ per attraction.

The more people with a FP+ for a given attraction, the longer you'll have to wait behind those other FP+ people. Think of it this way. If I was the only person with a FP+, I could walk right up to the front of the line. If there were 100 people ahead of me with FP+, I'd have to wait.

At this point, we don't know if Disney intends to increase or decrease the percentage of an attraction's capacity allocated to FP+. All things considered, I suspect they'll stick with their current allocations since they have a lot of data collected and, I assume, have already optimized it. Again though, we'll have to wait and see.

 

[GoofGoof]

A couple of thoughts.

1) even if everyone books 3 FP+ reservations how many will go unused? How many people will leave MK in the afternoon to cool off at the resort pool and not make it back in time for a 5pm FP+ reservation. How many people will decide to switch parks at the last minute and not bother switching FP+. I think a lot of infrequent visitors will have no clue what time to book these and may decide to wait until they get there or just never use it. The conspiracy theorists and privacy advocates won't use FP+ either (probably a not enough people to be statistically significant). Point is there is the potential for a lot less than an average of 3 per guest. We will have to wait and see, but may end up around the same use rate as FP regular.

2). FP+ will redistribute crowds not make them bigger. The rides won't load any faster or slower. The same number of people will be in the parks (minus those who say they won't go back because of Nextgen. Because of this if the line at HM or POC is longer then the line somewhere else has to be shorter - same people and same load times. Someone already mentioned people getting stuck with FP+ for rides they would not have normally went on. This would increase lines. That can be countered by those who normally would have waited 20 mins for POC but won't wait 30 mins so they skip it this trip or someone who didn't get a BTMRR FP+ but would normally get a FP to ride and refuses to wait an hour for any ride so skips it. This would decrease lines. Maybe the people using FP+ for reserved parade and fireworks spots don't stand on the curb for 90 minutes guarding their spot so they ride another ride or 2. This makes the lines longer. However, that counts as 1 of their 3 FP+ reservations so they only use 2 on actual rides. That will lower lines. Don't discount the use of FP+ for meet and greets and parades. Many people think meeting their favorite character is the highlight of their trip and wouldn't hesitate to use them for this.

3) the system is highly flexible. The numbers of FP+ can be tweaked daily if necessary to move people around. There may be growing pains in the beginning, but they should be able to work out the optimal distribution (in theory).

4) don't read this as me endorsing the system. I agree 100% with the person that said the experienced guests could take better advantage of the old system so this won't be a step up for us. It may be a break even at best in terms of time spent waiting in lines unless a lot of people just dont use it which is unlikely. At least we'll have new toys to play with while we wait.

 

[John]

Think of it this way.

Today with FP, you need to arrive at the front gate before opening, walk quickly to your #1 FP attraction, leaving your family behind so you can get a decent FP return time. Then, watch your printed FP window so you can sprint over to the next FP attraction before rejoining you family to experience your first FP experience. Repeat cycle.

I prefer the current FP because, IMHO, it awards hard work and I was raised to value hard work. However, I'm the only one in my neighborhood who still does my own yard work. Given the options of doing the "FP shuffle" or booking their FP+ experiences from their favorite electronic devices, I suspect most will prefer booking electronically.

edit: But yet again I am thinking as a experienced park goer.....noted

Still dont believe all because we will beable to book our rides in advance will mean we will beable to get the rides we want. Maybe 1 that we really wanted? yeaaaaaaaaaa!

 

[Lil Fort]

Think of it this way.

Today with FP, you need to arrive at the front gate before opening, walk quickly to your #1 FP attraction, leaving your family behind so you can get a decent FP return time. Then, watch your printed FP window so you can sprint over to the next FP attraction before rejoining you family to experience your first FP experience. Repeat cycle.

I prefer the current FP because, IMHO, it rewards hard work and I was raised to value hard work. However, I'm the only one in my neighborhood who still does my own yard work. Given the options of doing the "FP shuffle" or booking their FP+ experiences from their favorite electronic devices, I suspect most will prefer booking electronically.

We're lucky if we get to the parks before noon. We have never used FP much at all in the past, maybe one a day for the really popular attractions and the rest of the time we would just wander around and do whatever tickled our fancy. That's why we go in the fall. What worries me is that the artificially created demand will cause long wait times for everything even during low capacity times of the year.

 

[ParentsOf4]

A couple of thoughts.

1) even if everyone books 3 FP+ reservations how many will go unused?

1) There always will be unused FP+ in any system. However, I suspect there will be fewer unused FP+ than FP. See my answer to #2.

2). FP+ will redistribute crowds not make them bigger.

2) FP+ will make the crowds bigger, if it works according to Disney's plan. One of the goals behind FP+ is to convince (bribe) registered guests from heading to see The Boy Who Won't Be Named. Think of it this way, you booked a week's vacation at WDW. You have preselected FP+ for every day. What guaranteed FP+ are you willing to forgo so you can head up to Universal to stand in their lines?

3) the system is highly flexible.

3) FP+ is extremely flexible. I expect Disney to experiment with the distribution algorithms for years until settling on one that produces the best financial results. Don't even begin to think the first version of FP+ will be the only version of FP+. Expect changes.

4) don't read this as me endorsing the system.

4) FP+ does not reduce prices (in fact, expect another price increase), fix the numerous maintenance issues, add any attractions, or improve the food. Why would anyone endorse Disney spending $1.5B on something that doesn't fix any of WDW's biggest problems?

 

[michmousefan]

A second change in Standby lines should occur because of how Disney intends to distribute FP+. Previously, Disney did not distribute FP with return times for the first 40-to-60 minutes after park opening. As a result, Standby lines remained relatively short and it was possible to ride several attractions immediately after park opening.

So far, preliminary testing suggests Disney intends to change this policy with FP+. Rather than being able to schedule FP+ experiences to begin (for example) one hour after park opening, it appears Disney intends to allow guests to schedule FP+ experiences immediately after park opening. FP+ lines will form more quickly than in the past and the Standby lines will grow longer earlier as a result.

I'm not convinced the FP+ crowds will show up first thing and spoil the early morning crowds. If rope drop is at 9, and I have a Peter Pan FP+ for 9, the majority of FP+ holders -- like the majority of park guests (I'm guessing most of us on these boards are in the minority), who just won't get up that early when they are on vacation. They will show up at the end of that return window... much closer to 10, especially so if the early-morning slot for Peter Pan was the only slot left when they booked their FP+. If that theory is correct, then there should be a longer FP+ wait around an hour after a park opens, as people arrive and immediately proceed to their early-morning FP+ attraction.

That brings up another question... if you try to get a FP+ for a certain time and that slot is full, will the system say "no availability at 2pm but there is still availability at 9am?"

 

[ParentsOf4]

We're lucky if we get to the parks before noon. We have never used FP much at all in the past, maybe one a day for the really popular attractions and the rest of the time we would just wander around and do whatever tickled our fancy. That's why we go in the fall. What worries me is that the artificially created demand will cause long wait times for everything even during low capacity times of the year.

Don't worry about the longer Standby lines on some attractions. FP+ is designed for you, the person who wants to sleep in. If you stay onsite, you should be able to get a few good FP+ even if you like to sleep till noon.

You might even get a FP+ for TSM and Soarin'!

 

[ParentsOf4]

I'm not convinced the FP+ crowds will show up first thing and spoil the early morning crowds. If rope drop is at 9, and I have a Peter Pan FP+ for 9, the majority of FP+ holders -- like the majority of park guests (I'm guessing most of us on these boards are in the minority), who just won't get up that early when they are on vacation. They will show up at the end of that return window... much closer to 10, especially so if the early-morning slot for Peter Pan was the only slot left when they booked their FP+. If that theory is correct, then there should be a longer FP+ wait around an hour after a park opens, as people arrive and immediately proceed to their early-morning FP+ attraction.

Yes, definitely a possibility. Predicting human behavior can be difficult.

Conversely, some people will treat it like an appointment or, if you will, a restaurant reservation. They selected the 9 AM time for a reason (remember, they are the ones who selected the time) and they likely will want to keep that "appointment".

That brings up another question... if you try to get a FP+ for a certain time and that slot is full, will the system say "no availability at 2pm but there is still availability at 9am?"

Initial testing did not show return windows as options if those windows were "full". Disney can't have 2000 people trying to ride Peter Pan at 10 AM.

 

[JimboJones123]

It is called different things with different attractions, but backed up Fastpass lines can sometimes get to 10 to 1 in favor of Fastpass.

So, for every 100 guests that ride, 91 will be Fastpass. This means that a 10 minute standby line will be 100 minutes.

And yes, sometimes those 10 to 1 lines can last almost an hour.

Maybe this is Disney's best kept secret.

 

[Lil Fort]

Don't worry about the longer Standby lines on some attractions. FP+ is designed for you, the person who wants to sleep in. If you stay onsite, you should be able to get a few good FP+ even if you like to sleep till noon.

You might even get a FP+ for TSM and Soarin'!

I certainly hope you are right, but unfortunately I have my doubts. Let's call it cautious optimism pessimism.

 

[Tip Top Club]

Think of it this way.

Today with FP, you need to arrive at the front gate before opening, walk quickly to your #1 FP attraction, leaving your family behind so you can get a decent FP return time. Then, watch your printed FP window so you can sprint over to the next FP attraction before rejoining you family to experience your first FP experience. Repeat cycle.

One of the things that should be mentioned here (and I'm not, in any way disagreeing with you), is that you really have to consider each park one by one in this example. I think your example works best for Hollywood Studios, when literally almost every person gets in the gate and walks straight to Toy Story Mania. Whether to get a fastpass or to get in line before it's ridiculous. With FP+ People might have booked an early Fastpass for Star Tours instead, and that completely changes their morning habits.

Whereas at a park like Magic Kingdom, you might get there early see that Space Mountain is still at a 10 minute line, ride it now, and rebook your FP+ for Jungle Cruise after lunch. Or at Animal Kingdom you might do things in a different order. Everyone goes in and heads straight for the Safari, but if they have a FP+ For The 9:30 Lion King, they probably won't rush and head to Lion King first and do the safari later.

Basically the point that I'm making here is that regardless of Capacity, it should help spread out the crowds a little better, yes they will still be there, but likely at different times then we have been experiencing over the past few years.

In terms of the actual FP+ line, there is no information to suggest one way or the other. It all depends on whether WDW issues more or less FP+ per attraction.

....

At this point, we don't know if Disney intends to increase or decrease the percentage of an attraction's capacity allocated to FP+. All things considered, I suspect they'll stick with their current allocations since they have a lot of data collected and, I assume, have already optimized it. Again though, we'll have to wait and see.

I realize that what I'm about to say is not sourced so I expect flaming.

Disclaimer aside, the FP numbers now are not changing. Throughout last summer Fastpass Numbers were tinkered with at all four parks, and even the operation of some attractions were tinkered with to make Fastpass lines move faster in an effort to stretch the current Fastpass System to it's limits. The current plan for the changeover is to draw FP+ Reservations from the current pool of allotted Fastpasses. Obviously this will grow and change, but the numbers have already been tinkered with.

So in the opinion of all you knowledgeable people, will FP+ lines be longer, shorter, or the same as the existing FP lines???

So if you read my above, you should infer that they will be about when they have been for the last six months or so.

Also just as an FYI for everyone the current plan is that FP+ reservations will be available 60 days out. So we can all stop making the 180 days jokes...