Ernesto

Ringo8n24

Ringo8n24

Active Member
What is the irony of this happening again so soon? If this keeps moving towards us, we may be boarding up windows on the anniversary of Katrina. There are so many of us not ready for this mentally. I have to leave this time because I cannot handle the sound of that wind again.
 
pinkrose

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Part of the 11pm discussion..

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR
WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
SpongeScott

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
:( :mad: :( :mad:

NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW TAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO OVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96 HOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
ZapperZ

ZapperZ

Well-Known Member
Where ever it goes, I just want it to go as quickly as it can and have it be over by late Friday, because I'm flying in on Saturday!

Zz.
 
pinkrose

pinkrose

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Scott, if this thing does decide to follow this track (and becomes a major cane), you guys will be getting out of Tampa, right?

I'm not taking any of the "projected paths" to heart until it's much closer (GOM), but the models sure are in agreement here.
 
SpongeScott

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
pinkrose said:
Scott, if this thing does decide to follow this track (and becomes a major cane), you guys will be getting out of Tampa, right?

I'm not taking any of the "projected paths" to heart until it's much closer (GOM), but the models sure are in agreement here.
Click to expand...
I'll stay up to 125 mph. Call me crazy.....we're not in a flood zone, so we'll see if we can ride it out to an extent.
 
SpongeScott

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
pinkrose said:
Oh, ok. I wasn't sure if you were in a flood plain or not.
Click to expand...
we're about 30-35 feet above sea level, so it would take a mighty big surge to get us. We're also a mile inland with a lot of building frontage that is gonna get hit hard with wind and surge. My parents are five miles inland are in a flood zone because of Lake Tarpon--it could dump out on them.
 
P

Pasant

New Member
We're heading down 9/1 to 9/4 as well and to say that I am not freaked out is an understatement.

We fly into MCO from Dallas late Friday night (think that flight will make it) so I am curious what the days following look like.

Provided this storm does pass through on Friday, what are the days following like for those who have been through hurricanes before? Tons of rain, sunshine, etc?

I am wondering if I should adjust my plans for another weekend, or is it too early? Thoughts?

Those in the path - stay safe!!!
 
AliciaLuvzDizne

AliciaLuvzDizne

Well-Known Member
um:eek:
my first hurricane
what should i do??


we got hit by Gloria in the 80's but i was so young. I think the thing that I'm really worried about is having to go to work and having to drive in it...
 
SpongeScott

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
Pasant said:
We're heading down 9/1 to 9/4 as well and to say that I am not freaked out is an understatement.

We fly into MCO from Dallas late Friday night (think that flight will make it) so I am curious what the days following look like.

Provided this storm does pass through on Friday, what are the days following like for those who have been through hurricanes before? Tons of rain, sunshine, etc?

I am wondering if I should adjust my plans for another weekend, or is it too early? Thoughts?

Those in the path - stay safe!!!
Click to expand...
if it follows its current course and time frame, depending on when your flight is, you should get in. After the storm passes, it should clear out quickly. Keep an eye on your flight and keep an eye on what WDW does.
 
Lanipie

Lanipie

New Member
ZapperZ said:
Where ever it goes, I just want it to go as quickly as it can and have it be over by late Friday, because I'm flying in on Saturday!

Zz.
Click to expand...

Seriously! We're supposed to be arriving, by car, at ASMovies, Thursday afternoon around 4pm.

This SUCKS.
 
Nemo14

Nemo14

Well-Known Member
Frankly, if you're at WDW, you'll be in a very safe place, and eventually you'll be able to go back to your homes. Think of what all the people who are facing serious property damage or worse are going through....!
 
The Mom

The Mom

Moderator
Premium Member
To answer an earlier question, the first few days following a hurricane are usually quite lovely, once it passes. Some storms are very slow moving, and quite large, so you get bands of rain for up to a few days. These are the ones that usually cause lots of inland flooding, but lose wind intensity over land. The more intense, fast moving ones are over quickly, but generally cause more wind and storm surge damage.


Of course, once in a while a storm will come along that is both slow moving AND retains most of it's intensity. I don't ever want to see one of those! :eek:
 
kal1484

kal1484

Well-Known Member
We're in Orlando right now, but we're going back down to Bradenton today. I guess I'll get all the "stuff" ready when we get back so if we have to leave/decide to leave we can. I'm debating if I want to get a room now for then, or just stay with the in-laws in their rv when it hits (of course we won't be in the rv in the path)

Decisions Decisions.....
 
SpongeScott

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
And the latest advisory (11:00 a.m. Sunday) pushes it even a little further to the east. There's a ridge in the west that will control where Ernesto goes. The more it stays over Cuba, the better it is for Florida.
 

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