Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)

[Disney Analyst]

I get your concern, but I think this speaks to the continuing hubris and ego of Pixar execs and their big bosses at Disney.

They apparently still think just by slapping "Pixar" on the title card the movie still has a built-in fanbase of American families. And it's increasingly apparent that they don't have an automatic lock on that demographic any more.



Good point. Disney/Pixar animation almost always releases a movie in June, or Memorial Day weekend. Because traditionally any Disney or Pixar animated movie was the de facto Big Family Hit of the summer that American families automatically flocked to.

That is obviously no longer the case. Burbank bosses destroyed that business model and the trust of American families the last few years.

But, assuming Elemental is a big hit, it should be fine releasing in June because the summer movie market has always been big enough to support multiple blockbusters in one summer. Just last summer was a perfect example of that, with several superhero/teen movies doing right around a Billion (with a B!) in box office against the Billion Plus megahit Top Gun: Maverick. All while Pixar's Lightyear had a production budget of $200 Million and then fell flat on its face and lost at least a couple hundred million dollars for Emeryville.

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It has all the markings of a classic Pixar original, so I feel it could be a big hit with families, pending if the Pixar brand hasn't been too damaged by the "straight to Disney+" years.

 

[TP2000]

It has all the markings of a classic Pixar original, so I feel it could be a big hit with families, pending if the Pixar brand hasn't been too damaged by the "straight to Disney+" years.

When I first heard about it via D23, I only thought "Oh, it's Inside Out set in a big city". And I was unimpressed.

But then I heard that Catherine O'Hara was voicing the mom, and I've seen anything Ms. O'Hara has been in since watching SCTV on the Canadian UHF dial out of north Seattle 45 years ago, and I got excited for Elemental. (Assuming the Pixar editors don't censor out her best ad-libs and improv brilliance).

Then, I recently read a fan blog describe this as sort of a rom-com version of Guess Who's Coming To Dinner! And since I own the Blu-ray of Guess Who's Coming To Dinner and watch it religiously once a year as one of my all-time favorite movies, I was even more interested in Elemental!

There's great potential there! A family film with some smart humor for the parents, done by Pixar. Now, I guess we just wait for the big marketing push and see what the reviews are like? If this goes well, I could actually buy a ticket and go!

 

[Phroobar]

The belief that Pixar sells itself so Disney doesn't have to do anything isn't true anymore. Other companies have shown they can do better. I just don't think Disney management has figured that out yet.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The belief that Pixar sells itself so Disney doesn't have to do anything isn't true anymore. Other companies have shown they can do better. I just don't think Disney management has figured that out yet.

Disney has tolerated their live-action studio barely breaking even over the past 60 years.

The majority of movies made and distributed in wide-release by all studios don't get good reviews nor make money in the theatrical window.

Compared to that, Pixar is still a golden child.

 

[Phroobar]

Disney has tolerated their live-action studio barely breaking even over the past 60 years.

The majority of movies made and distributed in wide-release by all studios don't get good reviews nor make money in the theatrical window.

Compared to that, Pixar is still a golden child.

In Hollywood, You’re only as good as your last performance.

 

[LittleBuford]

In Hollywood, You’re only as good as your last performance.

If that were so, there would never have been a Disney Renaissance.

Peaks and troughs are an inevitable part of any company’s history, Disney’s included. The catasrophising in these threads is more than a little premature.

 

[Disney Analyst]

If that were so, there would never have been a Disney Renaissance.

Peaks and troughs are an inevitable part of any company’s history, Disney’s included. The catasrophising in these threads is more than a little premature.

Absolutely. In a 100 year history, Disney has had plenty of flops, and plenty of hits.

Any studio has.

Heck, films that are considered flops may be far better films artistically than some of the biggest box office hits. It's all so subjective...

But studios will keep on making 'em, and studio will keep on having hits and flops. (to be determined by various factors).

 

[LittleBuford]

Heck, films that are considered flops may be far better films artistically than some of the biggest box office hits. It's all so subjective...

I’ve mentioned this before, but Sleeping Beauty—today acknowledged as one of the company’s greatest masterpieces—lost money at the box office upon its release. And it wasn’t the only beloved classic to do so.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I’ve mentioned this before, but Sleeping Beauty—today acknowledged as one of the company’s greatest masterpieces—lost money at the box office upon its release. And it wasn’t the only beloved classic to do so.

I mean, anyone engaging genuinely surely knows that critical success does not always equate to financial success, and the reverse is also true.

 

[Prince-1]

In Hollywood, You’re only as good as your last performance.

Obviously you aren't in Hollywood because that's not true at all.

 

[LittleBuford]

I mean, anyone engaging genuinely surely knows that critical success does not always equate to financial success, and the reverse is also true.

It also isn’t the end of the world if a film is a critical failure and a box-office flop. Studios bounce back from such situations all the time.

 

[Disney Analyst]

It also isn’t the end of the world if a film is a critical failure and a box-office flop. Studios bounce back from such situations all the time.

Very true.

And back on course, from what little we have to go on, Elemental looks like a great addition to the Pixar library, and I hope it truly is.

 

[TP2000]

It also isn’t the end of the world if a film is a critical failure and a box-office flop. Studios bounce back from such situations all the time.

But what if it's the third animated box-office flop in a row? For an animation company that spends $150 to $200 Million to make each movie that then flops? Do they just take another $300 Million loss and say "Don't forget, it got a good review in the LA Times! Fourth time will be the charm!"

If they're going to spend upwards of $200 Million per film, when their direct competition is spending half of that, they need to get a hit every other movie or so. A Google search just now has industry trade sources claiming Elemental cost Pixar between $175 and $200 Million to make.

Using a conservative "Double The Box Office To Break Even", the DisCo's last two family animated films lost them $380 Million.
Using the "Triple The Box Office To Break Even" ratio that more people here like to use, their last two films lost them $700 Million.
Give or take $20 Million, of course. And plenty of catered lunches.

This is not a business model that can continue like this without getting a hit. Elemental really needs to be a hit!

 

[BrianLo]

But what if it's the third animated box-office flop in a row? For an animation company that spends $150 to $200 Million to make each movie that then flops? Do they just take another $300 Million loss and say "Don't forget, it got a good review in the LA Times! Fourth time will be the charm!"

If they're going to spend upwards of $200 Million per film, when their direct competition is spending half of that, they need to get a hit every other movie or so. A Google search just now has industry trade sources claiming Elemental cost Pixar between $175 and $200 Million to make.

Using a conservative "Double The Box Office To Break Even", the DisCo's last two family animated films lost them $380 Million.
Using the "Triple The Box Office To Break Even" ratio that more people here like to use, their last two films lost them $700 Million.
Give or take $20 Million, of course. And plenty of catered lunches.

This is not a business model that can continue like this without getting a hit. Elemental really needs to be a hit!

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No need for guess work on these ones. Deadline published the numbers. 300 million between the two, but Strange World was absolutely the bigger train wreck.

The Biggest Box Office Bombs Of 2022: Deadline’s Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament

Lightyear, Strange World, Amsterdam, Devotion and Babylon were among the biggest box office bombs of 2022.

deadline.com

Lightyear maybe, eventually, could find a path if the Disney machine was behind it. Which it isn't really since the pivot to Toy Story 5. Strange World is getting buried like a WDAS 2000-era film though.

 

[MisterPenguin]

But what if it's the third animated box-office flop in a row?

It isn't.

Pixar: Soul, Luca, and Turning Red were straight to D+ and all three got excellent reviews.

DAS: Frozen 2 made $1.4B. Raya was direct release to D+. Encanto had a shortened theatrical run. F2 had good reviews. Raya and Encanto had excellent reviews. Encanto became a sensation and is still showing up in Nielsen's Top Ten streamed movies two years later.

But we've been thru this before and you're still pedaling a false narrative.

 

[LittleBuford]

But what if it's the third animated box-office flop in a row?

Still not the disaster that some here (seemingly with much relish) predict.

 

[TP2000]

But we've been thru this before and you're still pedaling a false narrative.

I wasn't talking about Frozen 2 from 2019 (that seems like a generation ago after what we've been through in the last 4 years!).

I was talking about the last two big-budget animated films from Walt Disney Company. That would be Strange World last Thanksgiving, and Lightyear last June. Elemental is the third movie in that string, thus my question...

But what if it's the third animated box-office flop in a row?

Their last two family animated films were flops. Strange World in particular was an Epic Flop. They need this third one to not flop.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I was talking about the last two big-budget animated films from Walt Disney Company. That would be Strange World last Thanksgiving, and Lightyear last June. Elemental is the third movie in that string, thus my question...

My apologies, I misread that to mean in the previous three years, not just the two plus the imminent one this year.

It won't be that big of a deal. The two recent flops are from two different studios. So, so far, each has had a flop of one in a row.

We'll see if Elemental and Wish are canaries in the coal mine or can rectify the studios' reputations.

 

[LittleBuford]

I wasn't talking about Frozen 2 from 2019 (that seems like a generation ago after what we've been through in the last 4 years!).

I was talking about the last two big-budget animated films from Walt Disney Company. That would be Strange World last Thanksgiving, and Lightyear last June. Elemental is the third movie in that string, thus my question...



Their last two family animated films were flops. Strange World in particular was an Epic Flop. They need this third one to not flop.

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Isn’t it a bit intellectually dishonest to lump Burbank and Emeryville together—I’m using your terminology here—while omitting the other divisions of the Walt Disney Company from your gloomy assessment? Why don’t the recent Avatar and Guardians of the Galaxy films count?

 

[TP2000]

Isn’t it a bit intellectually dishonest to lump Burbank and Emeryville together—I’m using your terminology here—while omitting the other divisions of the Walt Disney Company from your gloomy assessment? Why don’t the recent Avatar and Guardians of the Galaxy films count?

I was lumping "Family Animation" into one group. That's Pixar and WDAS.

Marvel is something entirely different, with an entirely different demographic (13 to 30 year old men and a few of their very patient dates).

Avatar is, well, that's James Cameron. And he's so out there he is his own demographic, but it's basically an action/drama mega-movie for anyone 15 to 65. I even know a few folks over 65 who went to see Avatar 2, but they knew to turn their hearing aids down during the previews.

But family animation, that's something Disney built it's entire brand on. Walt got the ball rolling, but they had more financial success with it long after Walt in the 1980's, 90's and 00's. They were so successful, for a time they had two independent animation studios 400 miles apart making slightly different yet wildly successful box office movies for the same family demographic. Pixar and WDAS.

Judging on the past few years though, they've now got two independent studios 400 miles apart making nearly indistinguishable movies that continue to flop at the box office.

Elemental needs to not flop.

I'm rooting for it, if only because of Miss Catherine O'Hara, who I've been a huge fan of since Jimmy Carter was in the White House and my TV had a UHF dial that got Canadian stations because I was so close to the border.