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Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
Yes. In it's theatrical run, using the rule of thumb, it lost money in that window.
People do not care about articles here… all that matters is Disney lost
Dranth
Well-Known Member
I've noticed.
God forbid the people who worked on the movie be a little upbeat that it didn't disappear into obscurity after that terrible opening. What monsters for being excited that more people got to see and enjoy the thing they spent years working on.
Let’s not even get started on the audacity of the author. How DARE they write something factual about the movie and the path it has taken to get to where it is today.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
That has not actually been proven. Its only been assumed by certain posters based on the "estimates" using the rule of thumb.
No one here has the real numbers, so its cannot be said with any confidence this specific movie lost money during theatrical.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Its an article on https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/ !!!!!! its literally worthless!!!!!
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
It didn't make money either.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
All it has to do is make $1 more than it cost to be considered “making money”. And again since no one here has any real numbers it again cannot be said with any confidence that this particular film didn’t make any money during theatrical.
The only thing that can be said is that based on the “estimates” using the rule of thumb that it “appears” this film didn’t make money during theatrical.
The amateur Hollywood accountants around here really need to stop throwing around numbers and judgements like they actually counted every dollar themselves.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
You just like to argue don't you?
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Not really relevant to the conversation.
If you'd like to discuss what I posted, or refute it with some data with real numbers not estimates, then I'd be happy to discuss it. Otherwise this add nothing to the conversation.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Elemental lost Millions and Millions of dollars for Pixar. The Elemental production budget was $200 Million.
If you assume they spent $100 Million on marketing, Elemental lost $94 Million
If you assume they spent $75 Million on marketing, Elemental lost $69 Million
If you assume they spent $50 Million on marketing, Elemental lost $44 Million
If you assume they spent $15 Million on marketing, Elemental lost $9 Million
Domestic Box Office Take = $90 Million (60% of ticket sales)
Overseas Box Office Take = $116 Million (40% of ticket sales)
Global Box Office Take = $206 Million
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Yup. You like to argue. It's a bad habit.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
We just purchased the digital copy, WITH ADDITIONAL FEATURES 
I have my snacks ready and I am looking forward to watching it from the comfort of my home.
I have my snacks ready and I am looking forward to watching it from the comfort of my home.
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erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
That's true. And I've tried to be conservative based on the numbers that we see. I don't know the true numbers any more than you do.
My question for you is this. When you see estimates on budgets and marketing, and the same basic numbers come up in multiple places. Why should we think that they are so far off? Since I'm one of those amateur Hollywood accountants, I'd love to know. I understand that these things are not going to be 100% accurate. But if these numbers were really that far off, or at least off enough that something like Elemental could be profitable right now. I can't see Disney continuing to allow these numbers to run rampant and define the narrative without stepping in.
We all know what the rules of thumb is when it comes to this stuff. And as far as I have been able to find it is reasonably accurate. Sure if it's something where it's 20/30mil up or down, it could be a toss up. I just don't see the argument that Elemental is that close to profiting theatricality. You would need to under cut the reported budget by at least 40mil, and marketing by about the same. Then that would put you at an estimated profit. At best it is still down by a 60mil estimate (doubtful they only spent 50 mil to market) at worst it looks to be closer to 100mil down. It grew some legs overseas for sure, but I don't see it going green. But hey, stranger things have happened.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Again not really relevant to the conversation.
As I said if you'd like to discuss what I posted, or refute it with some data with real numbers not estimates, then I'd be happy to discuss it. Otherwise this add nothing to the conversation.
Just shouting "IT STILL LOST MONEY! " also adds nothing to the conversation.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Yes I understand what the "rule of thumb" estimations get you, though I believe your calculations are slightly off as the "numbers" hasn't properly updated for international.
But Disney has already stated the movie is profitable during theatrical. So clearly they have numbers we don't have access to.
For example what if the budget wasn't $200M but rather $195M, and they got a higher take on the international say 50% instead of 40%. That would put it close to turning a profit especially when you start lowering the marketing cost.
The point is that while I understand that for discussion purposes some numbers need to be used since a studio won't provide any comment on them. But once the studio themselves start saying they will make a profit during theatrical those estimated numbers should get thrown out the window.
Alright you guys, that's enough! And leave Disney Irish alone! I think Elemental made money and I think it's a moderate hit. It might not reach to the 500 million mark, but at least Elemental is profitable than Lightyear. So I think Pixar is doing a little better. They still need work, but they're getting better. Geez, I don't know what's with you people, but I guess you guys maybe joking around. 
Exactly! That means Pixar is making progress again. I think those guys prefer to be negative instead being positive. So sad!
Disney Irish
Premium Member
The thing is Disney has already stated in the same media that put out the estimates in the first place that Elemental will be profitable during theatrical. I mean sure I guess it could all be PR spin, but if there is a write down for the film then it would be publicly known so it makes no sense to say its profitable in the media.
It was also stated by Disney that the reported budgets include the creative executive salaries. So the $200M estimate being reported in the trades is the bloated budget not the actual production costs. So for the purposes of profitability they likely remove those and get to the real production costs. Again these are numbers we don't have.
So for all we know the real production budget could be closer to $150M, and again marketing is an unknown, same with the box office cut. As we know Disney is notorious for demanding a higher cut of the box office. So the averages may not work here. So all our amateur accounting may be way off here.
Anyways as I stated above once the studio starts saying the movie turns a profit, we should drop the "estimate" calculation.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I think the notable point is they are in fact stepping in and it’s being dismissed. Though I’d argue it’s worded weirdly and I’d personally buy that it isn’t theatrically profitable but is post theatrically with planned projected revenue this year.
Or the budget number is inaccurate or exaggerated.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
The only thing I've seen from Disney on this film was from Morris. He said
“We have a lot of different revenue streams, but at the box office we’re looking at now, it should do better than break even theatrically,”
The key word is should, and like I said, maybe it will. But it's not there yet. If Disney comes out and says the film was profitable, then great. I just think that if all these numbers were so off, Disney would come out and correct them. Or at least clarify. Especially since box office profitability has been the biggest thorn in their side.