Elemental (Pixar - June 2023)

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Yes, I'm drawing a blank on that too. Is it possible he means 2017 when Coco came out?

Either way, I agree that we need to hope the original films start earning money! I really don't want any more Toy Story sequels!

I am wondering?

Unless they consider Peter Rabbit original?

Maybe they mean from 2018 to now, no original work has hit that threshold... last being 2017's Coco.

I dunno.
 

Sir_Cliff

Well-Known Member
Interesting way of spinning that.
I don't think anyone would deny this is a very disappointing result, but the strong holds (and increases in international markets) provide at least a glimmer of hope that those who are seeing the film are liking it and showing there may still be a market for original animated films. I'd rather grasp onto that than resign myself to a future of Frozens, Toy Storys, and Incrediblesssss into eternity.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
Interesting way of spinning that.
I'm not sure what you want; no one denies that Elemental is a box-office disappointment.

However, considering how well the movie has held at the box office the past few weeks, it is showing the impact of positive word of mouth and that things aren't as bad as originally feared. The film's disappointing opening weekend speaks to how the Pixar brand had been damaged. Elemental's perseverance at the box office in the following weeks speaks to the quality of the movie itself and offers hope for future Pixar animated films.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
This movie will end up around $140-$150 million domestic. That is hardly a disappointment considering the last few animated and Pixar films. It is a disappointment compared to pre-pandemic and is very much a disappointment compared to the biggest animated films since the pandemic, that's for sure. BUT compared to Disney's animated post-pandemic movies, it's quite a bit higher.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Would you mind posting the stats of # of tickets sold for all wide releases for the past several decades? Thanks!
I thought I saw the numbers site had tickets sold?

Anyway, good thing the data is not readily available so the folks can’t see the truth about what’s happening and they can’t do the spin they do about todays movies.
 

wtyy21

Well-Known Member
This movie will end up around $140-$150 million domestic. That is hardly a disappointment considering the last few animated and Pixar films. It is a disappointment compared to pre-pandemic and is very much a disappointment compared to the biggest animated films since the pandemic, that's for sure. BUT compared to Disney's animated post-pandemic movies, it's quite a bit higher.
For me, this movie will end up being higher than you statement, around $160-$200 million from domestic box office, considering that positive word-to-mouth from the general audience. If we only included the theatrical alone, might still be financial disappointment for Pixar unless they can add streaming and home media rentals to the movie's revenue to generate the profit.

Regardless, the only thing where Elemental achive its box office profit/break even, aside from home media rentals and streaming releases, is from international box office, especially in Korea, where the film had its high box office earning considering that Peter Sohn is a director of korean heritage. The film had only released in the UK this week (which is the widest opening title) and yet to be release in Japan until August. So, we expecting the box office revenue for those two major markets to be bit higher than another markets.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
I would not totally discount this movies endpoint yet. This could be pulling a Last Wish leg-out, which still doubled its take at this stage.
So far global box office is 207m, and it cost 200m to make, let forget the marketing costs which were 50m

They need to make about 193m more for Disney to break even not counting the marketing costs.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
What is the source of the formula you are using here?
The rule of thumb is Disney would get about 50 percent of the gross global box office.

So if a movie cost Disney 200m to make and let’s say in the case of Elemental they cheaped out and spent 50m on marketing, Disney cost to make and market Elemental about 250m.

Therefore, to break even, Disney must gross at the box office, about 500m (2 times 250)

A lot of folks will give you different numbers but this is a crude example.

It’s important to note that:

It was stated the “budget” of the film was 200m. We have no idea if they went over budget. If they were under budget, the access media would be screaming it from the mountain top.

I most likely under estimated the cost to market it at 50m, it was probably more.

The good thing is the box office is not the only way a movie makes money, obviously there is rent or purchase on streaming and DVD sales and merch.

Therefore, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Elemental may break even in the very long run.

Its just that the box office numbers, unless a movie is a blockbuster and makes a lot of money at the box office, is not the full measure like it was in the old days when THE ONLY way to see a movie was at the theater.

That said, I think the box office numbers is a measure of the popularity of a film still.

Last thing, I am not so sure TWDC’s objective is to make movies for mass appeal. They make the movies they want to make. So far, the company can afford to do it apparently.
 
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wtyy21

Well-Known Member
The rule of thumb is Disney would get about 50 percent of the gross global box office.

So if a movie cost Disney 200m to make and let’s say in the case if Elemental they cheaped out and spent 50m on marketing, Disney cost to make and market Elemental about 250m.

Therefore, to break even, Disney must gross at the box office, about 500m (2 times 250)

A lot of folks will give you different numbers but this is a crude example.

It’s important to note that:

It was stated the “budget” of the film was 200m. We have no idea if they went over budget. If they were under budget, the access media would be screaming it from the mountain top.

I most likely under estimated the cost to market it at 50m, it was probably more.

The good thing is the box office is not the only way a movie makes money, obviously there is rent or purchase on streaming and DVD sales and merch.

Therefore, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Elemental may break even in the very long run.

Its just that the box office numbers, unless a movie is a blockbuster and makes a lot of money at the box office, is not the full measure like it was in the old days when THE ONLY way to see a movie was at the theater.

That said, I think the box office numbers is a measure of the popularity of a film still.

Last thing, I am not so sure TWDC’s objective is to make movies for mass appeal. They make the movies they want to make. So far, the company can afford to do it apparently.
It would probably work for Disney family-friendly films like Elemental, whose International box office now accounts over 56% ($142M) of box office revenue of the film ($251M), which would see how the film performed in another major markets like the UK (released last Friday), Spain, and then Japan that are yet to be released. Additionally, there are streaming and home media released figures that would be counted.
Screenshot_2023-07-10-07-16-50-18.png

However, this rule regarding Disney box office break even may face an uphill for $295M budget cost for a another film, as the film will need to achieve so-high box office ($850-$900M) to break even.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Not seeing any UK numbers for its opening weekend there (yet), but things are picking up overseas.

In brighter news for Disney (and Pixar), Elemental is showing fiery improvement overseas. The current frame was good for $30M from 48 markets, repping a 21% dip. Several major markets saw uptick including Australia (+32%), Korea (+14%) and Brazil (+3%), as well as Uruguay (+127%), New Zealand (+119%), Vietnam (+41%), Chile (+40%) and Israel (+13%). Korea’s 4th weekend was the highest weekend since the film’s release; the movie seems to have taken on a mind of its own there.

 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member

Phroobar

Well-Known Member
So we are saying Elemental is Developmentally Delayed.
 

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