What is the source of the formula you are using here?
The rule of thumb is Disney would get about 50 percent of the gross global box office.
So if a movie cost Disney 200m to make and let’s say in the case of Elemental they cheaped out and spent 50m on marketing, Disney cost to make and market Elemental about 250m.
Therefore, to break even, Disney must gross at the box office, about 500m (2 times 250)
A lot of folks will give you different numbers but this is a crude example.
It’s important to note that:
It was stated the “budget” of the film was 200m. We have no idea if they went over budget. If they were under budget, the access media would be screaming it from the mountain top.
I most likely under estimated the cost to market it at 50m, it was probably more.
The good thing is the box office is not the only way a movie makes money, obviously there is rent or purchase on streaming and DVD sales and merch.
Therefore, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Elemental may break even in the very long run.
Its just that the box office numbers, unless a movie is a blockbuster and makes a lot of money at the box office, is not the full measure like it was in the old days when THE ONLY way to see a movie was at the theater.
That said, I think the box office numbers is a measure of the popularity of a film still.
Last thing, I am not so sure TWDC’s objective is to make movies for mass appeal. They make the movies they want to make. So far, the company can afford to do it apparently.