Earning Report: Attendance remains level with last year, revenue down

I think that the main reason you see a spike in attendance at DL is a combination or staycations and the get in free for your birthday offer. Since DL is in the middle of LA, there are quite a few birthdays to go around. Orlando isn't quite as easy to get to.
 

WDWFigment

Well-Known Member
The idea of someone enforcing a "fair profit" scares me. TWDC would be nowhere if someone had dictated a "fair profit". There certainly would not be a WDW as nobody would have been willing to invest in such a project if it was regulated in it's financing.

If a company becomes too greedy a competitor will soon emerge to provide a better value product. The market hedges against greed. Simple as that.

I absolutely agree with this (I actually agree with what everything that jt04 has said in this thread, so I'll keep this short), except I might say qualify it to say that the market hedges against certain types of greed. Greed can certainly be good, the kind that motivates a company to surpass competitors certainly is good. That clandestine individual executive (the kind that gets the SEC investigating or raises Sarbanes red flags) that can be bad. I think some people smell blood in the water right now because of supposed failures our economic system has exposed in capitalism. It's certainly not without flaws, but it's the best system in the world. My only concern with Disney would be potentially that the company has gotten too large, and is working with dis-economies of scale. Not a huge concern, though. Just one of the side effects of the constant strife between management pursuing its own best interests and pursuing maximizing shareholder wealth.

While I hate to see people lose their jobs, a lot of companies ballooned unnecessarily in size in recent years, and this economic meltdown corrected that by eliminating jobs that were both unnecessary and filled by people who were not suited for those positions. Just as the economy had to come 'back down to earth' as a result of people spending wealth that simply didn't exist. If someone is not suited for a position, or just is not doing their job, they should not have a job. I'm not contending that Disney always terminated the best people (quite the contrary at times, or so I've heard), but I think there is no denying that management had grown to unnecessary numbers. Maybe it's just the conservative in me, but I do not think there is an inherent "right" to employment.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
I am just trying to put a more worldly and proper context on the earnings call. Looking back at the previous YTD and previous year's quarter isn't reasonable when you have 5 straight years of record profits.

Just like in Sales - no one really cares what you did years ago when being critical. It's always 'what have you done for me lately?'. Getting a return on your investment is not about what the company did 5 years ago compared to today. Past performance is used as the starting point of where you are going next... because it is speculation of the FUTURE that drives prices.

What matters most these days is guidance and hitting those expectations. That is where the market quivers and moves absurdly quickly when a company posts numbers.

The price of a stock in today's market is driven by what you think the company will be doing in the future as that optimism is what drives the value. When there is no optimism for potential future demand for the stock.. it's price will fall as it's value has fallen.

If Disney wanted to get out of the growth business - they need only move into the dividend business.

The stock market in large is not about 'ownership' - it's about speculation. Speculation of buying something that will increase in value so you can sell it later. That speculation is always driven by future performance.

A vast part of the CEO/CFO/COO's jobs are to properly manage those expectations in the market so the company does not get blind sided.

As for other earlier comments about attendance, etc... they are significant because they are a metric to see how you stand regarding market share. Are you growing or shrinking relative to your competition. Attendance numbers on their own are of limited value.. it's when you take into play the entire market that they become much more telling and valuable. Which is why the companies are so protective of them. They are highly volatile as it regards to visibility towards the company.
 

jedeye18

New Member
Well said!

I absolutely agree with this (I actually agree with what everything that jt04 has said in this thread, so I'll keep this short), except I might say qualify it to say that the market hedges against certain types of greed. Greed can certainly be good, the kind that motivates a company to surpass competitors certainly is good. That clandestine individual executive (the kind that gets the SEC investigating or raises Sarbanes red flags) that can be bad. I think some people smell blood in the water right now because of supposed failures our economic system has exposed in capitalism. It's certainly not without flaws, but it's the best system in the world. My only concern with Disney would be potentially that the company has gotten too large, and is working with dis-economies of scale. Not a huge concern, though. Just one of the side effects of the constant strife between management pursuing its own best interests and pursuing maximizing shareholder wealth.

While I hate to see people lose their jobs, a lot of companies ballooned unnecessarily in size in recent years, and this economic meltdown corrected that by eliminating jobs that were both unnecessary and filled by people who were not suited for those positions. Just as the economy had to come 'back down to earth' as a result of people spending wealth that simply didn't exist. If someone is not suited for a position, or just is not doing their job, they should not have a job. I'm not contending that Disney always terminated the best people (quite the contrary at times, or so I've heard), but I think there is no denying that management had grown to unnecessary numbers. Maybe it's just the conservative in me, but I do not think there is an inherent "right" to employment.

--thank god SOMEONE here is defending capitalism!
 

WDW1974

Well-Known Member
This earnings report is not as bad as it could have been, but it's hardly anything to celebrate.

I hate to disagree, being a Disney hater and all, but I believe a company that not only doesn't lose money, but makes almost a billion dollars in PROFIT in a quarter in the worst economy since the Great Depression is something to celebrate.

Revenue means nothing. If you looked at GMs revenue alone you would think the company was run by geniuses. The operating profit is the only real indicator. For the Parks & Resorts unit to drop 19% is not good for a company that gives no real dividends and describes itself as a growth company. It’s really bad when you consider the Easter holiday fell in Q3 in 2009 and Q2 in 2008. Had it not been for this happenstance of the calendar the drop would have been much more severe. Tom Staggs pointed this out in his report is was such a significant factor. In Q2 2009 the Parks & Resorts earnings dropped 50%. This was due in part to the quirk of the Easter holiday.

Nothing would ever make me think Disney was run by geniuses. I'm much too smart for that ... and I know some of the folks. To call them dim bulbs would be an insult to bulbs everywhere.

They did luck out with Easter falling in Q3 this year, no doubt about it.

But the fact that they can fill the resorts like they are and keep attendance flat -- when by all rights it should likely fall 10-20% considering just how bad the economy is -- makes me pleased as a stockholder. I'm much less pleased by how they got those results ...

Sorry, but if attendance is flat and profit is down this far, the drop in guest spending must be severe and the discounting way too deep.

Bingo!

People are saving by not buying Disney merchandise and many are eating/snacking less. Add the HUGE discounts (Buy 4, Get 3 free was really unprecedented and adding free dining to the traditionally busy fall months shows great softness in future bookings!) and you get the big drop in revenue.

It’s hard for me to believe that the guest experience has not suffered (as the report claims) when hours have been cut, entertainment has been cut, no new attractions are planned for WDW for several years (2009 - 2012) and massive layoffs hurt morale and decrease the cast member to guest ratio. This is not a well run business unit.

Um ... ya think?:wave:
 

WDW1974

Well-Known Member
I'm having a hard time feeling great about attendance being level with last year also. Does everyone forget that last year at this time we were actually in the same economy, if not worse than we are now, and gas was in the $4-$5 range?

I think we've been headed for this economy for well over a decade (can't off-shore so many jobs and kill American industry here at home and not have it come home to roost ... sorry, Wall Street but we can't survive with 95% of Americans making under $15 an hour!)



Given this year's sick discounts, I am absolutely shocked that attendance is not up 10% at WDW like it is at DL.

Really?!?! WDW isn't like DL. Steve will chime in with that!:)

Seriously, you have many more drivers at DL and many more locals. And with new things like Summer Nightastic all over the place, people are pouring into Anaheim. This quarter will be more interesting since many of the cheap APs are blocked out for much of the summer period.
 

WDW1974

Well-Known Member
While I hate to see people lose their jobs, a lot of companies ballooned unnecessarily in size in recent years, and this economic meltdown corrected that by eliminating jobs that were both unnecessary and filled by people who were not suited for those positions. Just as the economy had to come 'back down to earth' as a result of people spending wealth that simply didn't exist. If someone is not suited for a position, or just is not doing their job, they should not have a job. I'm not contending that Disney always terminated the best people (quite the contrary at times, or so I've heard), but I think there is no denying that management had grown to unnecessary numbers. Maybe it's just the conservative in me, but I do not think there is an inherent "right" to employment.

I have a lot of respect for your posts ... usually BUT (ya knew that was coming!) I have a hard time agreeing with your contention that WDW needed to downsize ... and most of the folks they got rid of were not at the top exec/management level ... to use favorite whipping boy Phil Holmes as an example, you didn't see folks like him axed. You saw some of the top hourly folks ... some top long-time (top of the pay scale) folks at mid levels.

As to the inherent right to work, maybe it's the socialist, pinko Commie in me, but creating an underclass of people who can't find work or are making $8 an hour at Starbucks or Target when they were making $85,000 a year is a great way to destroy a country. Or make one third world.

I have friends who have been out of work, real work anyway, for YEARS now. Then there are folks who don't have one full-time employer and work for themselves and/or clients (like myself) who can go from making incredible money to nothing depending on outside circumstance and we don't even exist as far as the federal government is concerned. And I do feel the country owes everyone better.

Funny how socialism is OK for Wall Street and Detroit and how many banks that have failed this year (? 60?), but talk about helping individuals and all the crazy rightwingers suddenly think we're putting up statues of Stalin. But that's what WalMarting a nation is all about!

Sorry, Figment, but jobs are a very hot button topic for me. We need to put people to work, not justify companies adding to our downward spiral by putting more folks on the street.
 

Orange Bird

Member
While I hate to see people lose their jobs, a lot of companies ballooned unnecessarily in size in recent years, and this economic meltdown corrected that by eliminating jobs that were both unnecessary and filled by people who were not suited for those positions. Just as the economy had to come 'back down to earth' as a result of people spending wealth that simply didn't exist. If someone is not suited for a position, or just is not doing their job, they should not have a job. I'm not contending that Disney always terminated the best people (quite the contrary at times, or so I've heard), but I think there is no denying that management had grown to unnecessary numbers. Maybe it's just the conservative in me, but I do not think there is an inherent "right" to employment.

Just a note of interest.

Many of the people who created DCA, Disney Studios Paris and HKDL are still employed while dozens of Guest Service Managers lost their jobs. Bob Iger said, "None of the job cuts would affect guest service." :brick:

Disneyland can't build a Monorail that works or a AA Dragon either (even though it's the center piece of their big summer promotion), but the people responsible for those messes are still there.

The gang that created the latest Stitch disaster is still there, but some WDW areas lost low level office coordinaters that served as the "glue" that keep their departments running. As far as I can tell, under the leadership of Jay Rasulo, they got everything exactly backwards.
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
Speaking of over-discounting - a friend of the family received a postcard yesterday from Disney. It is an offer to buy "merchandise cards" at a discount. The only level I remember is $695 for a $1000 card. Things are tough for Disney in terms of guest spending and it's apparent that it's not getting any easier.
 

WDWFigment

Well-Known Member
I have a lot of respect for your posts ... usually BUT (ya knew that was coming!) I have a hard time agreeing with your contention that WDW needed to downsize ... and most of the folks they got rid of were not at the top exec/management level ... to use favorite whipping boy Phil Holmes as an example, you didn't see folks like him axed. You saw some of the top hourly folks ... some top long-time (top of the pay scale) folks at mid levels.

As to the inherent right to work, maybe it's the socialist, pinko Commie in me, but creating an underclass of people who can't find work or are making $8 an hour at Starbucks or Target when they were making $85,000 a year is a great way to destroy a country. Or make one third world.

I have friends who have been out of work, real work anyway, for YEARS now. Then there are folks who don't have one full-time employer and work for themselves and/or clients (like myself) who can go from making incredible money to nothing depending on outside circumstance and we don't even exist as far as the federal government is concerned. And I do feel the country owes everyone better.

Funny how socialism is OK for Wall Street and Detroit and how many banks that have failed this year (? 60?), but talk about helping individuals and all the crazy rightwingers suddenly think we're putting up statues of Stalin. But that's what WalMarting a nation is all about!

Sorry, Figment, but jobs are a very hot button topic for me. We need to put people to work, not justify companies adding to our downward spiral by putting more folks on the street.

We absolutely need people to work and I don't think you're going to meet much resistance to the contention that if someone was once making $85,000/year, they are only capable of working an $8/hour job at Target or Starbucks. I don't think the market has failed to the point where people were that over-their-heads in their occupations. I do, however, think that as the market grew (and this was false growth), a lot of companies ballooned and were not careful in hiring. What I mean by there being no right to work is that if someone is not willing or able to do their job, they don't have any "right" to be in it. A lot of hardworking and able individuals have also lost employment during the recent economic crisis. I am in no way justifying that. I think some corporations needed changes in their management regimes (as you say, the people at the top should've lost their employment), but that's a little more difficult to accomplish. If you stated that the SEC needs to enact more measures to counter management entrenchment, I would agree (although the SEC is largely incompetent, so I don't know how well that would've been implemented). Proxy wars, hostile takeovers, or simple 'shareholder flight' are often too unwieldy or too expensive for any meaningful change in management.

I also don't agree with the government propping up industries. You often paint yourself as a socialist, but I don't actually buy that given some of your arguments (not a knock at you as I think you make these comments in jest or for shock appeal, I just would consider you to be more egalitarian). Without a doubt, executives in key corporations got lazy and/or refused to do their jobs properly. As I said there is a constant strife between management, that wants to entrench itself and make personal gains, and shareholders. The former almost always wants to increase the size of the company to accomplish this. I think in the recent past, a lot of unscrupulous executives did this--and as a result, a lot of people who were not suited for their positions gained employment. Essentially, in-over-their-heads in their positions. I am in no way justifying the recent scandals in corporate America, nor am I justifying the response of bailing these industries out. In doing that, I think we're only postponing the inevitable return to reality, economically (so to speak).

I'm not trying to say that Disney made the right decisions in who to let go in reigning in this growth (heck, I'm not even saying the growth necessarily happened at Disney), I don't know enough about the company to make an informed statement as to that. I'm saying that as a general proposition, companies did "over-grow" in recent years. I have heard from you and others that those individuals who were cut were not the folks who should have been cut. I'm not defending those particular cuts, just the general principle that cutting jobs, at times, is a necessary evil (although my words wouldn't be "evil", since I believe those who should lose their jobs are those who are not capable).

Regardless of our disagreements economically, I think we are approaching the same ends--that a corporation such as Disney must continue to innovate and aggressively meet customer expectations in order to sustain growth (or to simply remain an industry leader). People in key positions aren't willing to make the tough decisions to get there, because it's often easier to make the safe decisions that don't cause stagnation. Now the means by which we get there are probably quite different, but I think we're still generally 'on the same page.'

(although there's a lot more I'd like to say, I'm going to keep this relatively short since it might disappear due to being political--for the record, capitalism and socialism are economic schemes, NOT political schemes. Talking economics here, so far as I know, is not prohibited).
 

Duckberg

Active Member
a POST

Guess we should settle in for a long thread of armchair executives.

I'm not saying the result are good or not, just that there are about to be 20 pages of responses with half the facts.

If I go ahead and say Stitch, Monorail Accident, New FL, plan leaks, and Harry Potter, can you guys promise not to bring them up? :p

HMMMmmm Duckberg :eek:
 

Spyne

Member
In light of the economy, I think it's very good news for WDW. :) Even though profits slipped a bit, the attendance is still very good to see.
 

Orange Bird

Member
I hate to disagree, being a Disney hater and all, but I believe a company that not only doesn't lose money, but makes almost a billion dollars in PROFIT in a quarter in the worst economy since the Great Depression is something to celebrate.

I get what you are saying. That Disney is overall a healthy company and doing well enough in a bad economy. So well in fact the cost cuts (layoffs, shorter hours, entertianment cuts, etc.) are not necessary. I agree.

I'm saying that Disney is doing very poorly based on their self-described status as a growth company. And a growth company that expects ALL business units to grow...even the mature units. I think Disney should rethink their corporate status, but by the standards they set for themselves, they are doing very poorly.

No business can grow forever. There is no such thing as a perpetual motion machine.
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
I get what you are saying. That Disney is overall a healthy company and doing well enough in a bad economy. So well in fact the cost cuts (layoffs, shorter hours, entertianment cuts, etc.) are not necessary. I agree.

I'm saying that Disney is doing very poorly based on their self-described status as a growth company. And a growth company that expects ALL business units to grow...even the mature units. I think Disney should rethink their corporate status, but by the standards they set for themselves, they are doing very poorly.

No business can grow forever. There is no such thing as a perpetual motion machine.

You need to tell that to the Congress.

As for Disney, they are just now really entering the markets of India and China. They are far from peaking. I'd be suprised if they stop growing in the lifetime of anyone alive today.
 

Orange Bird

Member
You need to tell that to the Congress.

As for Disney, they are just now really entering the markets of India and China. They are far from peaking. I'd be suprised if they stop growing in the lifetime of anyone alive today.

Yeah, the theme park business in China is going great.
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
Yeah, the theme park business in China is going great.

That is another example of just getting started. Theme parks are only a part of what Disney does. Sorry, I'll know when it's time to be critical of the way TWDC is doing business. It isn't now. Seriously, are you an economist? Cause I'm not seeing the reason for the cynacism. Perhaps you can educate us with actual facts rather than opinion.
 

Orange Bird

Member
That is another example of just getting started. Theme parks are only a part of what Disney does. Sorry, I'll know when it's time to be critical of the way TWDC is doing business. It isn't now. Seriously, are you an economist? Cause I'm not seeing the reason for the cynacism. Perhaps you can educate us with actual facts rather than opinion.

I've posted many facts in this thread. Go back and read them. Your tone is rude and too personal. Address the subject. Not the poster.

I haven't asked you why you seem to abhor critical thought. I assume you have your reasons and I leave it at that.
 

WDW1974

Well-Known Member
We absolutely need people to work and I don't think you're going to meet much resistance to the contention that if someone was once making $85,000/year, they are only capable of working an $8/hour job at Target or Starbucks. I don't think the market has failed to the point where people were that over-their-heads in their occupations. I do, however, think that as the market grew (and this was false growth), a lot of companies ballooned and were not careful in hiring. What I mean by there being no right to work is that if someone is not willing or able to do their job, they don't have any "right" to be in it. A lot of hardworking and able individuals have also lost employment during the recent economic crisis. I am in no way justifying that. I think some corporations needed changes in their management regimes (as you say, the people at the top should've lost their employment), but that's a little more difficult to accomplish. If you stated that the SEC needs to enact more measures to counter management entrenchment, I would agree (although the SEC is largely incompetent, so I don't know how well that would've been implemented). Proxy wars, hostile takeovers, or simple 'shareholder flight' are often too unwieldy or too expensive for any meaningful change in management.

I don't disagree with that. The problem is our nation and its leaders have largely justified people on the bottom getting screwed, while propping up leaders of Big Business who should be in jail ... or at very least working at WalMart.

Companies can lose ridiculous sums of money and write off the debt and get taxpayer bailouts. But if someone who should have bought a $200,000 home, but was talked into a $500,000 one, too many Americans go all rightwing and say 'throw the dumbasses and their kids on the street.'

There's a defending da man 'tude that plagues us as a people.
But I really don't wanta long philosophical debate on a weekend, no less.

I also don't agree with the government propping up industries. You often paint yourself as a socialist, but I don't actually buy that given some of your arguments (not a knock at you as I think you make these comments in jest or for shock appeal, I just would consider you to be more egalitarian). Without a doubt, executives in key corporations got lazy and/or refused to do their jobs properly. As I said there is a constant strife between management, that wants to entrench itself and make personal gains, and shareholders. The former almost always wants to increase the size of the company to accomplish this. I think in the recent past, a lot of unscrupulous executives did this--and as a result, a lot of people who were not suited for their positions gained employment. Essentially, in-over-their-heads in their positions. I am in no way justifying the recent scandals in corporate America, nor am I justifying the response of bailing these industries out. In doing that, I think we're only postponing the inevitable return to reality, economically (so to speak).

Again, I don't disagree. And I am not a socialist (not that being one is a bad thing ... or any worse than say being a GOP member!) but I am so tired of being labeled that I just wear it like a badge!

I'm not trying to say that Disney made the right decisions in who to let go in reigning in this growth (heck, I'm not even saying the growth necessarily happened at Disney), I don't know enough about the company to make an informed statement as to that. I'm saying that as a general proposition, companies did "over-grow" in recent years. I have heard from you and others that those individuals who were cut were not the folks who should have been cut. I'm not defending those particular cuts, just the general principle that cutting jobs, at times, is a necessary evil (although my words wouldn't be "evil", since I believe those who should lose their jobs are those who are not capable). [/quotes]

Disney, like most American companies, certainly was management heavy.
But most of the folks let go weren't management. And many who took the VSPs offered (like Tom McAlpin or Dieter Hannig) were the cream of the exec crop at Disney P&R and were basically forced out so that Jay Rasulo could keep his vice grip on his job.

I would never argue with any company ever cutting true 'dead wood' but the problem is that very rarely happens.

Regardless of our disagreements economically, I think we are approaching the same ends--that a corporation such as Disney must continue to innovate and aggressively meet customer expectations in order to sustain growth (or to simply remain an industry leader). People in key positions aren't willing to make the tough decisions to get there, because it's often easier to make the safe decisions that don't cause stagnation. Now the means by which we get there are probably quite different, but I think we're still generally 'on the same page.'

(although there's a lot more I'd like to say, I'm going to keep this relatively short since it might disappear due to being political--for the record, capitalism and socialism are economic schemes, NOT political schemes. Talking economics here, so far as I know, is not prohibited).

Give it time and pretty soon all we'll be talking about is our favorite character and why Splash Mountain is waaaay kewl!:rolleyes:
 

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