Studios Fan
Active Member
I agree completely. One would assume this quarter should be even better with the way that their movies have performed this summer.
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Earning Report: Attendance remains level with last year, revenue down
- Thread starter wdwmagic
- Start date
I agree completely. One would assume this quarter should be even better with the way that their movies have performed this summer.
PhotoDave219
Well-Known Member
Jason Garcia's problem - and wall street as a whole - is the failure to put the earning call into its proper context. (Lazy Business Reporting. Hell, anyone with an internet connection can look this stuff up)
Last year was a record year. Year before that was a record year. Year before that was a record year.
SO how does this year fall into the context of those record years? Lets look at some SEC filings and do Jason Garcia's job for him (AGAIN) shall we?
Lets go back a few years. (Numbers are in billions)
Year ........................2009....... 2008 ..... 2007....... 2006 ...... 2005 ..... 2004
3Q End Revenue ........ 8,596 ... 9,236 ...... 9,045 .... 8,474 ..... 7,715 .... 7,414
3Q End Expenses ...... (6,998) .. (7,215) ... (7,022)... (6,734) ... (6,369) .. (6,375)
9 Mo Revenue ........... 26,282 .. 28,398 ... 26,580 .... 25,095 ... 24,210 ... 23,209
Parks and Resorts:
3Q End .................... 2,751 ..... 3,038 .... 2,904 ..... 2,730 ..... 2,449 .... 2,288
9 Mo End ................. 7,823 ..... 8,535 .... 7,839 ..... 7,383 ..... 6,663 .... 5,588
9 Mo Ending
East Coast Per Room $ 211 ...... $231 ..... $235 ...... $225 ....... $209 ..... $209
Guest Spending
Occupancy................. 89% ....... 90% ....... 93% ..... 92% ........ 88% ..... 83%
SO what does this all mean?
Yes, TDC is behind in numbers from last years record year and 2007's record year but is ahead of 2006's numbers for the quarter. The 9 MO overall has it just behind 2007 numbers by a hair and completely blows away 2004 & 2005.
P&R is Ahead of 2006's numbers for the quarter. 9 MO numbers are behind last year but on par with 2007 and ahead of 2006 as well as completely blowing away 2004 & 2005.
Guest Spending levels fell to 2004/5 Levels thanks to the discounts. Hotel Occupancy is on par with last year.
This isn't bad news, this is good news, Daresay GREAT news. Despite the economy falling apart, Disney's earnings are on-par with somewhere around 2006/7 revenues, falling behind last-year's record year.
P&R are doing great with earnings and revenues on pace with 2006/7.
Its not as bad as you think. Really.
Sources: 10-Q filings with the SEC found here, here, and here.
Last year was a record year. Year before that was a record year. Year before that was a record year.
SO how does this year fall into the context of those record years? Lets look at some SEC filings and do Jason Garcia's job for him (AGAIN) shall we?
Lets go back a few years. (Numbers are in billions)
Year ........................2009....... 2008 ..... 2007....... 2006 ...... 2005 ..... 2004
3Q End Revenue ........ 8,596 ... 9,236 ...... 9,045 .... 8,474 ..... 7,715 .... 7,414
3Q End Expenses ...... (6,998) .. (7,215) ... (7,022)... (6,734) ... (6,369) .. (6,375)
9 Mo Revenue ........... 26,282 .. 28,398 ... 26,580 .... 25,095 ... 24,210 ... 23,209
Parks and Resorts:
3Q End .................... 2,751 ..... 3,038 .... 2,904 ..... 2,730 ..... 2,449 .... 2,288
9 Mo End ................. 7,823 ..... 8,535 .... 7,839 ..... 7,383 ..... 6,663 .... 5,588
9 Mo Ending
East Coast Per Room $ 211 ...... $231 ..... $235 ...... $225 ....... $209 ..... $209
Guest Spending
Occupancy................. 89% ....... 90% ....... 93% ..... 92% ........ 88% ..... 83%
SO what does this all mean?
Yes, TDC is behind in numbers from last years record year and 2007's record year but is ahead of 2006's numbers for the quarter. The 9 MO overall has it just behind 2007 numbers by a hair and completely blows away 2004 & 2005.
P&R is Ahead of 2006's numbers for the quarter. 9 MO numbers are behind last year but on par with 2007 and ahead of 2006 as well as completely blowing away 2004 & 2005.
Guest Spending levels fell to 2004/5 Levels thanks to the discounts. Hotel Occupancy is on par with last year.
This isn't bad news, this is good news, Daresay GREAT news. Despite the economy falling apart, Disney's earnings are on-par with somewhere around 2006/7 revenues, falling behind last-year's record year.
P&R are doing great with earnings and revenues on pace with 2006/7.
Its not as bad as you think. Really.
Sources: 10-Q filings with the SEC found here, here, and here.
Computer Magic
Well-Known Member
Good chart and very informative. With this ecomony Disney growth (record years) would slow.
I'll put a different spin. Revenue stayed as good because of all the cuts in jobs (layoffs), less park hours, ie overhead. In otherword revenue didn't drop as much because Disney retracted. At some point, there will be nothing left to cut and growth will have to occur or a bigger hit will occur. Disney has the benfit of diversity. many companies to offset each other losses. So Disney needs to invest or risk bigger loses because there is nothing left to cut (unless we start talking about half day parks). A path of no return.
jakeman
Well-Known Member
Guess we should settle in for a long thread of armchair executives.
I'm not saying the result are good or not, just that there are about to be 20 pages of responses with half the facts.
If I go ahead and say Stitch, Monorail Accident, New FL, plan leaks, and Harry Potter, can you guys promise not to bring them up?
I'm not saying the result are good or not, just that there are about to be 20 pages of responses with half the facts.
If I go ahead and say Stitch, Monorail Accident, New FL, plan leaks, and Harry Potter, can you guys promise not to bring them up?
Computer Magic
Well-Known Member
Nothing wrong with analyzing a company where people own stock. It is our best interest. Go to any investment forum and you will find the same.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Good, then can you sit this one out?
jakeman
Well-Known Member
Analysis, such as photodave has done is fine.
I should probably be more specific, it's the, "This is what Iger should do" post that are going to drown out the good post such as photodaves. Especially since they are all going to just be followed by either "Fire TDO" or "The sheriff will handle it".
Of course I'm not really adding anything either so I'm just perpetuating the problem. :lol:
Just so I can say that I contributed in a positive way photodave's analysis is spot on. These numbers aren't bad at all. I would be interested to see the results of the discount research Iger said they are doing. We could be entering a cycle of perpetual discount that aren't true (kind of like your grocery store "discount" card").
Only if you sit with me...:kiss:
Computer Magic
Well-Known Member
good point all around :lol::lookaroun
Captain Chaos
Well-Known Member
They have an increase of profits from 2008 to 2009???? Care to share where you found this information?? I'd be curious to read it...
Edit: Nevermind I found a blog on Orlando Sentinal dated July 20, 2009.. However, it sites COST CUTTING and not City Walk as reasons for an increase in profit...
WDW1974
Well-Known Member
Great post, Dave.
And it does put things into some context from the past five years.
It also illustrates just how great really Disney is doing, which is why I don't want to keep hearing BS from analysts that times are tough etc ... things are bad all around for everyone who isn't very wealthy (as it always is in a depression/recession) but this idea that Disney is in such dire straits that it needs to cut back on cast, operating schedules, entertainment and quality across the board is just plain insulting.
The idea that the only way Disney's quarter could be looked at as positive is if they improved on the $1.3 billion from last year is almost vomit-inducing. It's pablum for the wealthiest and people who make a living on Wall Street.
I'm tired of it and it's certainly not just a Disney issue, it's an American way of business issue.
And it does put things into some context from the past five years.
It also illustrates just how great really Disney is doing, which is why I don't want to keep hearing BS from analysts that times are tough etc ... things are bad all around for everyone who isn't very wealthy (as it always is in a depression/recession) but this idea that Disney is in such dire straits that it needs to cut back on cast, operating schedules, entertainment and quality across the board is just plain insulting.
The idea that the only way Disney's quarter could be looked at as positive is if they improved on the $1.3 billion from last year is almost vomit-inducing. It's pablum for the wealthiest and people who make a living on Wall Street.
I'm tired of it and it's certainly not just a Disney issue, it's an American way of business issue.
One Lil Spark
EPCOT Center Defender
High five for doing your homework, Dave!
EPCOT Explorer
New Member
Guess we should settle in for a long thread of armchair executives.
I'm not saying the result are good or not, just that there are about to be 20 pages of responses with half the facts.
If I go ahead and say Stitch, Monorail Accident, New FL, plan leaks, and Harry Potter, can you guys promise not to bring them up?
You missed EPCOT.
There, now I'm done with this thread....:lookaroun:lol: I hate the numbers game..
Orange Bird
Member
This earnings report is not as bad as it could have been, but it's hardly anything to celebrate.
Revenue means nothing. If you looked at GMs revenue alone you would think the company was run by geniuses. The operating profit is the only real indicator. For the Parks & Resorts unit to drop 19% is not good for a company that gives no real dividends and describes itself as a growth company. It’s really bad when you consider the Easter holiday fell in Q3 in 2009 and Q2 in 2008. Had it not been for this happenstance of the calendar the drop would have been much more severe. Tom Staggs pointed this out in his report is was such a significant factor. In Q2 2009 the Parks & Resorts earnings dropped 50%. This was due in part to the quirk of the Easter holiday.
Sorry, but if attendance is flat and profit is down this far, the drop in guest spending must be severe and the discounting way too deep.
It’s hard for me to believe that the guest experience has not suffered (as the report claims) when hours have been cut, entertainment has been cut, no new attractions are planned for WDW for several years (2009 - 2012) and massive layoffs hurt morale and decrease the cast member to guest ratio. This is not a well run business unit.
Revenue means nothing. If you looked at GMs revenue alone you would think the company was run by geniuses. The operating profit is the only real indicator. For the Parks & Resorts unit to drop 19% is not good for a company that gives no real dividends and describes itself as a growth company. It’s really bad when you consider the Easter holiday fell in Q3 in 2009 and Q2 in 2008. Had it not been for this happenstance of the calendar the drop would have been much more severe. Tom Staggs pointed this out in his report is was such a significant factor. In Q2 2009 the Parks & Resorts earnings dropped 50%. This was due in part to the quirk of the Easter holiday.
Sorry, but if attendance is flat and profit is down this far, the drop in guest spending must be severe and the discounting way too deep.
It’s hard for me to believe that the guest experience has not suffered (as the report claims) when hours have been cut, entertainment has been cut, no new attractions are planned for WDW for several years (2009 - 2012) and massive layoffs hurt morale and decrease the cast member to guest ratio. This is not a well run business unit.
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
Disney Blames Guest Spending On Revenue Slide
Orange Bird
Member
Yup.
You don't make money without investing money, but you can move it around in a shell game.
"Borrow from the future...who knows if we'll still be working for this stupid company by then." - Faceless Corporate MBA
MousDad
New Member
Case in point, I was at Cedar Point a few weeks ago. While the walkways seemed to have moderate traffic, every queue was a ghost town. Nearly all the massive, wrap-around queues they have at their major rides, that are designed to absorb their notorious 1-2 hour lines, were roped off. It was entrance straight up the ramp to load on every ride. I rode 2 of the major coasters with waits of 5 and 10 minutes respectively. The longest line I heard of talking w/ guests was 30 minutes for one of the newest, premier attractions.
Oh yeah, this was a Saturday in July.
Props to CP though - the park was absolutely spotless, and every attraction I saw was open and working. All the shows had full schedules, and the park had a late closing.
I'm having a hard time feeling great about attendance being level with last year also. Does everyone forget that last year at this time we were actually in the same economy, if not worse than we are now, and gas was in the $4-$5 range?
Given this year's sick discounts, I am absolutely shocked that attendance is not up 10% at WDW like it is at DL.
Figment632
New Member
Since the FL expansion hasn't been confirmed I wouldn't worry about it.
DisneyEverest
Member
Wow! That's surprising, Disney is doing something right during this time.