DVC Point-Borrowing Restrictions

[striker1064]

A value studio in October should be just as easy/difficult to book at 11 months as a one bedroom savanna view in March. When one of those units is routinely available one month ahead of time and the other requires walking, it means one of them is too cheap and the other is too expensive.

I'm not so sure I agree with this. Or at least, I agree with you on principle, but when there are literally only 18 units of one category vs 100+ of another, there's no way you can ever balance demand, even if you're talking same season. How much would you have to increase the cost of, for example, a value studio vs a savanna studio so they have equal demand? You can't make value equal savanna, because then no one would ever book value (they're smaller with worse views). So how much fewer points should value be? 1? 2? 3?

The size of the category is the clear limiting factor here.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I'm not so sure I agree with this. Or at least, I agree with you on principle, but when there are literally only 18 units of one category vs 100+ of another, there's no way you can ever balance demand, even if you're talking same season. How much would you have to increase the cost of, for example, a value studio vs a savanna studio so they have equal demand? You can't make value equal savanna, because then no one would ever book value (they're smaller with worse views). So how much fewer points should value be? 1? 2? 3?

The size of the category is the clear limiting factor here.

You kind of answer your own question though.

As it stands, everyone wants Value and nobody wants Savanna. If they were equal cost, nobody would want value and everyone would want Savanna. It stands to reason, then, that there's an equilibrium price somewhere in between where demand would roughly balance out.

Regardless, I'm much more concerned with season-to-season demand balancing than particular room types within a season. Both are an issue, but I think the seasonal issue is worse.

 

[nickys]

He's not booking a home resort reservation. He's booking at a resort that he is only allowed to book at 7 months for an especially busy time of year. Doing that, he is taking those dates from a person who OWNS at that resort, and can now no longer book those dates. That is total abuse of the system.

How can he have walked at a non home resort for 8 months? Any owner of that resort could have jumped in ahead of him and blocked him. If he truly did that then it could only have happened if there were simply not enough owners at that resort wanting to book. In other words there were rooms available at that resort the whole time.

And don’t get me wrong, that is ridiculous. But walking only works at a home resort.

 

[Jdn0018]

How can he have walked at a non home resort for 8 months? Any owner of that resort could have jumped in ahead of him and blocked him. If he truly did that then it could only have happened if there were simply not enough owners at that resort wanting to book. In other words there were rooms available at that resort the whole time.

And don’t get me wrong, that is ridiculous. But walking only works at a home resort.

Walking "works" if you're trying to stay ahead of 7-month bookings. I am planning a stay in May 2022 right now and started the walking process today... However, that process could fall short in the next couple of weeks should owners at the resort I am trying to get want to book the dates I am shooting for.

I understand your statement... but in this case, my resort of choice is pretty much wide open from March onward. I am walking because I am booking several rooms for my extended family and this process helps me grab hold of enough rooms in advance.

 

[nickys]

Walking "works" if you're trying to stay ahead of 7-month bookings. I am planning a stay in May 2022 right now and started the walking process today... However, that process could fall short in the next couple of weeks should owners at the resort I am trying to get want to book the dates I am shooting for.

I understand your statement... but in this case, my resort of choice is pretty much wide open from March onward. I am walking because I am booking several rooms for my extended family and this process helps me grab hold of enough rooms in advance.

What I should have said is that walking is only guaranteed to work at a home resort.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

What I should have said is that walking is only guaranteed to work at a home resort.

True. I mentioned that he could only lock out other non owners. I still think it’s ridiculous.

 

[ThatGuyTels]

I was woefully ignorant of this rule policy when making my plans and today tried to make a reservation for June that would require borrowing beyond the limit.

The representative on the phone indicated they were hoping the limit would be removed after the holidays.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I was woefully ignorant of this rule policy when making my plans and today tried to make a reservation for June that would require borrowing beyond the limit.

The representative on the phone indicated they were hoping the limit would be removed after the holidays.

Sorry to hear that…yeah…it’s kinda fallen off the radar.

I am not making anything until after our use year rolls over…in part because of the limit

 

[Phonedave]

Walking is a symptom of a problem, not the problem itself.

The problem is Disney's unwillingness to make the dramatic changes to the points charts that are necessary to balance demand. Within a given resort, points costs should be reallocated so that demand is *equal* across dates and room types. A value studio in October should be just as easy/difficult to book at 11 months as a one bedroom savanna view in March. When one of those units is routinely available one month ahead of time and the other requires walking, it means one of them is too cheap and the other is too expensive.

In general, Fall is way too cheap and late winter/early Spring are way too expensive (in points). Premium view categories are also too expensive, with the exception of AKV Club level, which is too cheap.

The issues with this is that the demand is not 100% elastic. Some people can only go at certain times. My wife is a teacher. They could tell me a grand villa is 1 point a night during October, and I would not be able to go. If they boosted the points to the max during the times I can go, I would then have to think about offloading my contract.

There are many people that are in a similar situation, for a variety of reasons (school, jobs, kids, etc). They can only drive the behavior so far.

Also, I believe any given point changes is capped at 20% each year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The issues with this is that the demand is not 100% elastic. Some people can only go at certain times. My wife is a teacher. They could tell me a grand villa is 1 point a night during October, and I would not be able to go. If they boosted the points to the max during the times I can go, I would then have to think about offloading my contract.

There are many people that are in a similar situation, for a variety of reasons (school, jobs, kids, etc). They can only drive the behavior so far.

Also, I believe any given point changes is capped at 20% each year.

Agreed. The issues are this:

1. You will never have “equal demand”
2. They sell too much…or to be accurate: you build a bad spot and it floods the pool to overflow.
Examples?
1. Saratoga
2. Copper creek and poly “bungalows”…which just floods points into the system
3. Moderate DVC (go there and see if they can fool you!)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The issues with this is that the demand is not 100% elastic. Some people can only go at certain times. My wife is a teacher. They could tell me a grand villa is 1 point a night during October, and I would not be able to go. If they boosted the points to the max during the times I can go, I would then have to think about offloading my contract.

There are many people that are in a similar situation, for a variety of reasons (school, jobs, kids, etc). They can only drive the behavior so far.

Also, I believe any given point changes is capped at 20% each year.

In a pool of hundreds of thousands of members, demand is elastic. The inelastic demands of individual members are mitigated in the aggregate.

Ironically, the "teacher times" are not the times when there are demand problems. DVC members are, broadly speaking, cheapskates, so any rooms that are seen as a bargain or "too good" of a value are the first to go. Generally speaking, there should be less of a gap between room types. Make the expensive times cheaper, and the cheap times more expensive. In an effort to discount the slow periods to combat low demand, Disney has gone too far and actually turned those periods into the highest demand.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

In a pool of hundreds of thousands of members, demand is elastic. The inelastic demands of individual members are mitigated in the aggregate.

Ironically, the "teacher times" are not the times when there are demand problems. DVC members are, broadly speaking, cheapskates, so any rooms that are seen as a bargain or "too good" of a value are the first to go. Generally speaking, there should be less of a gap between room types. Make the expensive times cheaper, and the cheap times more expensive.

There is a certain pattern/logic to that as well…good point.

early DVC members used to try and squeeze as many nights as humanly possible…it’s why no one booked a 1 bedroom

I don’t know if that’s still a thing?

 

[LuvtheGoof]

There is a certain pattern/logic to that as well…good point.

early DVC members used to try and squeeze as many nights as humanly possible…it’s why no one booked a 1 bedroom

I don’t know if that’s still a thing?

They are almost always easier to book at 7 months at most resorts. We've stayed in 1 bedrooms at BCV and BWV during the height of F&W prior to COVID. And even had a Boardwalk view at BWV a few times at 7 months!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They are almost always easier to book at 7 months at most resorts. We've stayed in 1 bedrooms at BCV and BWV during the height of F&W prior to COVID. And even had a Boardwalk view at BWV a few times at 7 months!

7 months?!? Why so far out?

 

[LuvtheGoof]

7 months?!? Why so far out?

We own at SSR, so we book there at the 11 month mark, then on the exact 7 month day, we look at what else is available. We only have 3 DVC properties left to stay at - BRV, CCV, and Riviera. We're kinda torn on Riviera, since we could have gotten it at 7 months, but it's crazy expensive, so not sure if we will ever bother to stay there. The other 2 are just so small and hard to get, that we just don't know when or if we'll get lucky with those. Our next trip will be our second say at the Poly next year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We own at SSR, so we book there at the 11 month mark, then on the exact 7 month day, we look at what else is available. We only have 3 DVC properties left to stay at - BRV, CCV, and Riviera. We're kinda torn on Riviera, since we could have gotten it at 7 months, but it's crazy expensive, so not sure if we will ever bother to stay there. The other 2 are just so small and hard to get, that we just don't know when or if we'll get lucky with those. Our next trip will be our second say at the Poly next year.

I must have a different timeshare…

you know that you can move those reservations around - 4, 5,6 months, right? Used to be one or two in the good old days.

when are you going?

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I must have a different timeshare…

you know that you can move those reservations around - 4, 5,6 months, right? Used to be one or two in the good old days.

when are you going?

March. Yes, if there is availability it can be moved, but we’re good with Poly for the next trip.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

March. Yes, if there is availability it can be moved, but we’re good with Poly for the next trip.

cool…

I find that 7 month thing so tedious…I do believe I’ve only done it once in 16 years…

I did try it for Disneyland…but that was pointless

 

[LuvtheGoof]

cool…

I find that 7 month thing so tedious…I do believe I’ve only done it once in 16 years…

I did try it for Disneyland…but that was pointless

We were able to get VGC at 7 months a few years ago in early May. Pretty much impossible now.

 

[Phonedave]

In a pool of hundreds of thousands of members, demand is elastic. The inelastic demands of individual members are mitigated in the aggregate.

Ironically, the "teacher times" are not the times when there are demand problems. DVC members are, broadly speaking, cheapskates, so any rooms that are seen as a bargain or "too good" of a value are the first to go. Generally speaking, there should be less of a gap between room types. Make the expensive times cheaper, and the cheap times more expensive. In an effort to discount the slow periods to combat low demand, Disney has gone too far and actually turned those periods into the highest demand.

The teacher times were my personal example, not that of the general DVC ownership.

While looking at the pool in aggregate it does seem elastic, I wonder how many members as an individual are inelastic. Remember, we are booking reservations on an individual level. I'm sure there are a good number of people who can shift vacation times. But there are also a good number that cannot make big shifts. Kids and school, permitted work vacations, syncing vacations with spouses, etc. That is part of what was a 'qualifier' for DVC, if you can plan your vacation 11 or 7 months out. People who can do that tend to have less flexible vacation schedules.

While you may be able to shift some demand from one period to an other using points, I believe there is a large portion of the population that cannot make that shift.

Now, when you are talking about room sizes and point differences, that is a different story. There are many people out there who budgeted for a studio in their contracts. With studio and 1BR usually sleeping the same number of people, many people went for the studio. I think a lot of sales were also made with the point that you could afford a studio with a small points contract.

I myself prefer a 1BR, even if it just my wife and myself. If we go as a family we get a 2BR. I think the last time we had a studio was because it was all I could get. I would love to see 1BR come down in points, but then availability would tank as well.

I recall there being some sort of rule about shifting points between units as well. I don't think that it was it could not be done, but something about a limit. I'll have to see if I can find it.