Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[legwand77]

Yes, lots of people don’t understand the data.

but no... you can’t say that fewer died than reported. We don’t yet know how many died “yesterday” and we may not get a final number for months.
But we need to look at it as a lagged rolling average. Looking at the data... we can say that over the last few weeks, deaths have been increasing, up to an average of 70-80 per day. It might be significantly higher -today-.. but we won’t know for weeks.

It’s also why you can’t wait for the numbers to get bad before taking mitigation measures. If you wait for the numbers to get bad, then you’re probably reacting 2 weeks too late.

I posted the graph above with the lagged deaths add in vs reported deaths.

 

[legwand77]

I believe the CDC gets their death numbers once the death certificates are processed. The local data (I believe) is likely provided earlier before the certificate is completed/filed/registered/whatever. For example, person dies in hospital, hospital reports using COVID NET to get the data out and then, over the course of the next couple of weeks, the paper work is filed which makes its way to the CDC.

correct

 

[havoc315]

I posted the graph above with the lagged deaths add in vs reported deaths.

The point is, eventually the lag catches up and the numbers match up. They have to eventually match up — basic math.

 

[GoofGoof]

I posted the graph above with the lagged deaths add in vs reported deaths.

I’m not following what this tells us. The CDC number in blue has a solid line through June 20 and then a dotted line after. I assume that solid means reported (based on date of death) vs dotted which is incomplete data. We know the spike in cases started the end of June. We can’t really look at that graph and say the deaths are lower than what’s reported after June 20 if we don’t know what the deaths actually are.

Edit: June 23 was when daily cases In FL first crossed over 5,000.

 

[legwand77]

I do think deaths are going to rise a bit but nowhere near matching the rise in hospitalizations. We might be nearing the peak.

 

[GoofGoof]

I do think deaths are going to rise a bit but nowhere near matching the rise in hospitalizations. We might be nearing the peak.

I agree with this. The vast majority of people hospitalized won‘t die and treatment is getting better every day.

 

[Kman101]

Judging from them releasing 2020 tickets already and offering a big discount for AP holders on resort rooms they aren't getting as many people as they hoped.

Yep. That was my thought too. They aren't getting the demand they hoped for and they realize they need the AP's. Because they opened up reservations for AP's with resort stays to book more than just their standard three tells me all I need to know.

However, many people had hotel reservations but no tickets, and vice versa, so they had to 'fix it' (which this did) but they should have just reached out to those people and done it that way first instead of opening it all up to everyone, but hey, what do I know? LOL

Or why not offer tickets to guests checking in who don't have them? IDK, I just think they make things complicated when they don't have too.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Yep. That was my thought too. They aren't getting the demand they hoped for and they realize they need the AP's. Because they opened up reservations for AP's with resort stays to book more than just their standard three tells me all I need to know.

However, many people had hotel reservations but no tickets, and vice versa, so they had to 'fix it' (which this did) but they should have just reached out to those people and done it that way first instead of opening it all up to everyone, but hey, what do I know? LOL

Or why not offer tickets to guests checking in who don't have them? IDK, I just think they make things complicated when they don't have too.

It’s an economics decision...if you look at Josh’s interview, they determined that if a pizza restaurant can open, so can they.

Essentially, they should’ve never closed to begin with...they closed for PR, political, and the unions.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There were many - myself included- that thought there would be a surge during reopening.

But that was assuming things went “well” and that reopens was in May or so.

They have not...almost the opposite. It’s july and we aren’t close to the end. The year is shot at a minimum.

That’s not even addressing the economy. The band aid runs out in 3 weeks. Spending is going to hit a wall. There are 50,000,000 still on the UE rolls and the covid situation isn’t bringing them back. Business will be rewarded on Wall Street for dumping the layoffs and the furloughs and that’s what they will do. Mark that down.

And travel only works with consumer confidence. Where are the masses to wdw coming from?

The math doesn’t work. Loss of incomes all over the place and fear doesn’t lead to packed hotels and parks.

Maybe it’s been too long since a textbook recession? People don’t seem to have the right frame of mind here.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s an economics decision...if you look at Josh’s interview, they determined that if a pizza restaurant can open, so can they.

Essentially, they should’ve never closed to begin with...they closed for PR, political, and the unions.

AHHHHHHHHHH!!!

No...they didn’t!!

The unions in Florida are toothless. And the “politics” there are way off as they can get. Based on the daily failures you may have heard about??

If Disney had pitched a fit and said they weren’t closing...they would have been allowed to do it.

Josh doesn’t make any decisions!!! Not a one. Where on earth are you getting this?!?
The lawyers and a couple guys named “bob” made all those decisions...and they are making this one now. They answer to Wall Street and Wall Street alone. Period.

Stop with the HOAX crap!!! It’s wrong.
I gotta go do some tai chi or something...
I’ll be on the “how magical is POR?” Thread.

 

[Mickey Pride]

There were many - myself included- that thought there would be a surge during reopening.

But that was assuming things went “well” and that reopens was in May or so.

They have not...almost the opposite. It’s july and we aren’t close to the end. The year is shot at a minimum.

That’s not even addressing the economy. The band aid runs out in 3 weeks. Spending is going to hit a wall. There are 50,000,000 still on the UE rolls and the covid situation isn’t bringing them back. Business will be rewarded on Wall Street for dumping the layoffs and the furloughs and that’s what they will do. Mark that down.

And travel only works with consumer confidence. Where are the masses to wdw coming from?

The math doesn’t work. Loss of incomes all over the place and fear doesn’t lead to packed hotels and parks.

Maybe it’s been too long since a textbook recession? People don’t seem to have the right frame of mind here.

What is going to be even worse is when they reopen and things continue to go down this path and even worsen and they have to close once again just after a short period of reopen. That is going to be even worse.

 

[TrojanUSC]

Yep. That was my thought too. They aren't getting the demand they hoped for and they realize they need the AP's. Because they opened up reservations for AP's with resort stays to book more than just their standard three tells me all I need to know.

However, many people had hotel reservations but no tickets, and vice versa, so they had to 'fix it' (which this did) but they should have just reached out to those people and done it that way first instead of opening it all up to everyone, but hey, what do I know? LOL

Or why not offer tickets to guests checking in who don't have them? IDK, I just think they make things complicated when they don't have too.

Yep, there's also a real possibility of another closure and they like to have people on the books both to gain some interim cash from the deposits, as those people are more likely to shift their vacation if necessary, than cancel outright.

 

[Kman101]

Yep, there's also a real possibility of another closure and they like to have people on the books both to gain some interim cash from the deposits, as those people are more likely to shift their vacation if necessary, than cancel outright.

I don't think they'll close again, closing everything down didn't get rid of the virus and if we close everything down again, we start over again, and we will go through the same thing as we are going through now. JMO. But with cases skyrocketing in Florida and in Central Florida, folks aren't going to travel anytime soon.

 

[TrojanUSC]

I don't think they'll close again, closing everything down didn't get rid of the virus and if we close everything down again, we start over again, and we will go through the same thing as we are going through now. JMO. But with cases skyrocketing in Florida and in Central Florida, folks aren't going to travel anytime soon.

At some point, if hospitals are truly becoming overwhelmed, they'll need to take further mitigation measures. Miami-Dade just shut down again basically, with Broward adding additional restrictions. Whether or not Orange County takes similar actions as cases increase, remains to be seen. Even Mayor Demings the other day said they'll just have to "wait and see."

 

[havoc315]

I do think deaths are going to rise a bit but nowhere near matching the rise in hospitalizations. We might be nearing the peak.

probably the most direct correlation we have, with a lagged time shift, is hospitalizations and death.
Afterall, hospitalizations represent “serious cases.” Further, unlike testing, it’s much easier to capture almost every hospitalization.

So when hospitalizations rise, we can expect a lagged rise in deaths.

As hospitalizations are still rising, we can expect continued rise in deaths.

When hospitalizations drop, death reports will drop, but there will be a lag.
If hospitalizations are now at a peak, then deaths will likely peak in the coming weeks.

 

[Kman101]

At some point, if hospitals are truly becoming overwhelmed, they'll need to take further mitigation measures. Miami-Dade just shut down again basically, with Broward adding additional restrictions. Whether or not Orange County takes similar actions as cases increase, remains to be seen. Even Mayor Demings the other day said they'll just have to "wait and see."

That's true. Good point on the hospitalizations. But we'll just go through this again is my fear. Close everything for months and then wash/rinse/repeat but we may have no choice.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't think they'll close again, closing everything down didn't get rid of the virus and if we close everything down again, we start over again, and we will go through the same thing as we are going through now. JMO. But with cases skyrocketing in Florida and in Central Florida, folks aren't going to travel anytime soon.

I don’t think “closing” matters at this point.

They won’t generate the crowds needed for six months.

We are somewhat Disney sycophant - across the boards - here...

But people are having the hard time accepting the reality that most are not...and they still make up a majority of the Disney park customers.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

There were many - myself included- that thought there would be a surge during reopening.

But that was assuming things went “well” and that reopens was in May or so.

They have not...almost the opposite. It’s july and we aren’t close to the end. The year is shot at a minimum.

That’s not even addressing the economy. The band aid runs out in 3 weeks. Spending is going to hit a wall. There are 50,000,000 still on the UE rolls and the covid situation isn’t bringing them back. Business will be rewarded on Wall Street for dumping the layoffs and the furloughs and that’s what they will do. Mark that down.

And travel only works with consumer confidence. Where are the masses to wdw coming from?

The math doesn’t work. Loss of incomes all over the place and fear doesn’t lead to packed hotels and parks.

Maybe it’s been too long since a textbook recession? People don’t seem to have the right frame of mind here.

The recession was long overdue, and, myself included, became accustomed to a robust economy...Covid was the domino that started the recession.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

I don’t think “closing” matters at this point.

They won’t generate the crowds needed for six months.

We are somewhat Disney sycophant - across the boards - here...

But people are having the hard time accepting the reality that most are not...and they still make up a majority of the Disney park customers.

They won’t close, they’ll cut back.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

AHHHHHHHHHH!!!

No...they didn’t!!

The unions in Florida are toothless. And the “politics” there are way off as they can get. Based on the daily failures you may have heard about??

If Disney had pitched a fit and said they weren’t closing...they would have been allowed to do it.

Josh doesn’t make any decisions!!! Not a one. Where on earth are you getting this?!?
The lawyers and a couple guys named “bob” made all those decisions...and they are making this one now. They answer to Wall Street and Wall Street alone. Period.

Stop with the HOAX crap!!! It’s wrong.
I gotta go do some tai chi or something...
I’ll be on the “how magical is POR?” Thread.

The United States closed, and, in turn, WDW closed, because NYC closed. The two brothers up there have America up in arms over their inability to both lead a news channel or govern a state.

WDW closed because they knew staff wouldn’t show up, the news cycle would have a fit, which would further depress their stock price, and because everyone else was doing it.

I’m waiting for you to continue your holy rant, again.